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DOE OSTI2020

Conditional Karhunen-Loève expansion for uncertainty quantification and active learning in partial differential equation models

We use a conditional Karhunen-Lo` eve (KL) model to quantify and reduce uncertainty in a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) problem with partially-known space-dependent coefficient, Y (x). We assume that a small number of Y (x) measurements are available and model Y (x) with a KL expansion. We achieve reduction in uncertainty by conditioning the KL expansion coefficients on measurements. We consider two approaches for conditioning the KL expansion: In Approach 1, we condition the KL model first and then truncate it. In Approach 2, we first truncate the KL expansion and then condition it. We employ the conditional KL expansion together with Monte Carlo and sparse grid collocation methods to compute the moments of the solution of the SPDE problem. Uncertainty of the problem is further reduced by adaptively selecting additional observation locations using two active learning methods. Method 1 minimizes the variance of the PDE coefficient, while Method 2 minimizes the variance of the solution of the PDE. We demonstrate that conditioning leads to dimension reduction of the KL representation of Y (x). For a linear diffusion SPDE with uncertain log-normal coefficient, we show that Approach 1 provides a more accurate approximation of the conditional log-normal coefficient and solution of the SPDE than Approach 2 for the same number of random dimensions in a conditional KL expansion. Furthermore, Approach 2 provides a good estimate for the number of terms of the truncated KL expansion of the conditional field of Approach 1. Finally, we demonstrate that active learning based on Method 2 is more efficient for uncertainty reduction in the SPDE’s states (i.e., it leads to a larger reduction of the variance) than active learning using Method 2.

Conditioned Karhunen-Lo` eve expanion, machine lea↗

DOE OSTI2023

Determination of single crystal thermal expansion in Uranium-6wt%Niobium shape memory alloy using in-situ diffraction and modeling of textured polycrystalline samples

In-situ neutron diffraction and ex-situ dilatometry experiments were performed on a chemically banded, quenched uranium-6wt% niobium shape memory alloy to study the impact of deformation-(detwinning-) induced texture on the evolution of thermally induced strains (and associated stresses). Thermal heating and cooling cycles between 5K and 473K were performed in-situ with neutron diffraction, and the lattice strain evolution is reported for the observed monoclinic α" phase. Comparisons between the measured diffraction strains and macroscopic dilatometry experiments reveal relationships between micro- and macro-level thermal expansion. Softening of the texture during heating suggests that twin boundary motion can accommodate the large internal thermal strains which are approximately 2% greater than that typically observed during the 175K heating interval used to age more randomly oriented polycrystalline material. Assuming weak constraint of neighboring grains in randomly textured polycrystals, the single crystal thermal expansion tensor is extracted from measurements of lattice strains over the range 5K to 473K. Predictions of polycrystalline thermal expansion, based upon this single crystal thermal expansion tensor, are shown to compare favorably with bulk thermal expansion observations of the as quenched microstructure. However, such a lower-bound estimate is insufficient to explain all aspects of the behavior of the textured material, where the matrix is not isotropic. In conclusion, it is hypothesized that relaxation processes which occur within the quenched microstructure during heating are responsible for the distinct thermal expansion behavior observed during the initial heating cycle compared to cooling and subsequent cycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-temperature structure, elasticity, and thermal expansion of ε-ZrH 1.8

Zirconium hydride is a promising candidate material for nuclear microreactor applications as a solid-state moderator component, owing to its favorable neutronics properties and good thermal stability over other metal hydrides. Here, in the present work, the crystal structure, thermal expansion, and elastic properties of the hydrogen-rich ε phase hydride were measured at elevated temperatures in the range 300–900 K. Samples were prepared by direct hydriding Zircaloy-4 metal – a nuclear-grade zirconium alloy. Room-temperature lattice parameters agree well with those reported from literature for unalloyed zirconium hydride and fall within an observed quadratic H-content dependence. The coefficients of thermal expansion, determined from lattice expansion and dilatometry, agree well within our work but were about 30 % lower than those reported by others for unalloyed hydrides. Density functional theory-based molecular dynamics simulations were used to compare with thermal expansion and elasticity measurements. Results showed lattice parameter temperature dependence and slope of thermal expansion align with those from measurements. Based on diffraction scans at select temperatures, ε phase remained stable in air up to at least 770 K. Likewise, dilatometry showed smooth thermal expansion up to the thermal decomposition temperature around 950 K. The precise decomposition temperature was not determined via diffraction due to sparse scanning. The complete elastic property measurements were gathered for ε-phase Ziracloy-4 hydride for the first time. Young's modulus was lower compared to the metal and δ hydride phases. High-temperature elasticity measurements were limited to <350 K due to acoustic dissipation effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Alkali-Silica Reaction Expansion Rate and Confinement on Concrete Degradation

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) is a major deterioration mechanism that affects the durability of concrete structures. As the slow rate of ASR development and the restrained expansion in field concrete might affect the development of ASR damage, an experimental program was performed to investigate the effects of the rate of ASR expansion and confinement on the degradation of mechanical properties of concretes. Literature data on the degradation of mechanical properties of concretes with ASR expansion were collected and analyzed to investigate the influence of the rate of ASR expansion and confinement on the degradation trends. Degradation of mechanical properties was found to be significantly influenced by the rate of ASR expansion and slightly affected by confinements. The slow rate of ASR expansion seems to be beneficial in limiting concrete degradation. The effects of confinement seem to be related to the direction of restraint and crack orientations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Continuous NF-κB pathway inhibition promotes expansion of human phenotypical hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells through metabolism regulation

Highlights: • Small molecular inhibition of NF-κB pathway efficiently expands human HSPCs. • NF-κB inhibition with TPCA-1 improves the self-renewal potential and biological function maintenance of expanded CD34{sup +} cells. • NF-κB pathway inhibition reprograms metabolism and enhances glycolysis. • Continuous NF-κB inhibition is required in the culture process to facilitate primitive HSC maintenance. Hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs) ex vivo expansion is critical in facilitating their widespread clinical application. NF-κB pathway is implicated in the energy homeostasis and metabolic adaptation. To explore the effect of NF-κB pathway on the ex vivo HSPC expansion and metabolism, the 50 nM–1 μM inhibitor of NF-κB pathway TPCA-1 was used to expand cord blood derived CD34{sup +} cells in serum-free culture. The expansion folds, function, mitochondrial profile and metabolism of HSPCs were determined. After 10 days of culture with 100 nM TPCA-1, the expansion of total cells CD34{sup +}CD38{sup −} cells and CD34{sup +}CD38{sup −}CD45RA{sup −}CD90{sup +}CD49f{sup +} cells were significantly increased compared to the cytokine priming alone. Notably, TPCA-1 treatment generated ~ 2-fold greater percentage of CD34{sup +}EPCR{sup +} and CD34{sup +}CD38{sup −}CD45RA{sup −}CD90{sup +}CD49f{sup +} cells compared to cytokine only conditions. Moreover, TPCA-1 expanded CD34{sup +} cells displayed enhanced serial colonies forming potential and secondary expansion capability. NF-κB inhibition increased the expression of self-renewal related genes, while downregulated the expression of mitochondrial biogenesis regulator (Pgc1α) and mitochondrial chaperones and proteases (ClpP, Hsp10, Hsp60). Mitochondrial mass and membrane potential were markedly decreased with TPCA-1 treatment, leading to the reduced mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) level in HSPCs. NF-κB inhibition displayed augmented glycolysis rate with compromising mitochondrial metabolism. This study demonstrated that NF-κB pathway inhibition improved glycolysis and limited ROS production that promoted the ex vivo expansion and maintenance of functional HSPCs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parallel expansion of a fuel pellet plasmoid

The problem of the assimilation of a cryogenic fuel pellet injected into a hot plasma is considered. Due to the transparency to ambient particles of the plasmoid, the localised region of high-density plasma created by ionisation of the ablated pellet material, electrons reach a ‘quasiequilibrium’ (QE) state which is characterised by a steady-state on the fastest collisional time scale. The simplified electron kinetic equation of the QE state is solved. Taking a velocity moment of the higher-order electron kinetic equation, which is valid on the expansion time scale, permits a fluid closure, yielding an evolution equation for the macroscopic parameters describing the QE distribution function. In contrast to the Braginskii equations, the closure does not require that electrons have a short mean free path compared with the size of density perturbations, and permits an anisotropic and highly non-Maxwellian distribution function. As the QE distribution function accounts for both trapped and passing electrons, the self-consistent electric potential that causes the expansion can be properly described, in contrast to earlier models of pellet plasmoid expansion with an unbounded potential. The plasmoid expansion is simulated using both a Vlasov model and a cold-fluid model for the ions. During the expansion plasmoid ions and electrons obtain nearly equal amounts of energy; as hot ambient electrons provide this energy in the form of collisional heating of plasmoid electrons, the expansion of a pellet plasmoid is expected to be a potent mechanism for the transfer of energy from electrons to ions on a time scale shorter than that of ion–electron thermalisation.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Synergistic Coupling of CO2 and H2O during Expansion of Clays in Supercritical CO2-CH4 Fluid Mixtures

A combination of in operando IR and XRD methods were used to investigate the interaction of variably hydrated supercritical CO2-CH4 fluids with Na/NH4/Cs substituted montmorillonites. Comparing the behavior of Na-clay exposed to CH4 versus CO2 dominant fluid phases demonstrated that CO2 disrupts the H-bond network of intercalated H2O. At relatively low potentials of H2O, CO2 facilitates H2O intercalation and expansion of the interlayer region of the Na-clay. In contrast, CO2 inhibited H2O intercalation but promoted expansion of the Cs-clay. The NH4-clay displayed intermediated behavior. Methane likely intercalated the clays but opportunistically, filling unoccupied space after CO2 and H2O actively expanded the interlayer region. By comparing and contrasting the behavior of the Cs and NH4 clays to the Na Clay we conclude that, whereas H2O is required for initial Na-clay expansion, CO2 synergistically facilitated expansion and hydration of Na-clay by mixing with H2O (the entropic contribution) and participating in the outer solvation sphere of Na (the enthalpic contribution). In contrast, CO2 can directly solvate interlayer Cs and NH4 and cause expansion in the absence of H2O; nonetheless, H2O and CO2 also act synergistically to facilitate expansion of the Cs and NH4 clays at low H2O concentrations.

Loring, John S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Negative thermal expansion and the role of hybridization in perovskite-type PbTiO 3 -Bi(Cu 0.5 Ti 0.5) O 3

PbTiO 3 -BiMeO 3 ferroelectrics have attracted much attention due to not only their extremely large polarization and piezoelectricity but also their controllable thermal expansion. In this study, we present a new binary system of (1 - x)PbTiO 3 -xBi(Cu 0.5 Ti 0.5 )O 3 possessing large tetragonality and enhanced spontaneous polarization. Interestingly, a combination of near zero thermal expansion and negative thermal expansion over a temperature range of RT to T C (~550 °C) has been observed in tetragonal 0.85PbTiO 3 -0.15Bi(Cu 0.5 Ti 0.5 )O 3 . The comprehensive structure analysis addressed that the abnormal thermal expansion is coupled to the spontaneous volume ferroelectrostriction. Moreover, the chemical bonding investigation by a maximum entropy method further attests that the covalent hybridization of Pb/Bi–O bonds plays a vital role in the improved ferroelectricity and interacts with thermal vibration to dominate the crossover from positive to negative thermal expansion. fINALLY, The present studies would give direct evidence to verify the theoretical calculations and could be extended to reveal the nature of thermal expansion in ferroelectrics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Throughput Coefficient Thermal Expansion Testing Utilizing Digital Image Correlation

Dr. Fitzgerald, a postdoc at Sandia National Laboratories, works in a materials of mechanics group characterizing material properties of ductile materials. Her presentation focuses specifically on increasing throughput of coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) measurements with the use of optical strain measurements, called digital image correlation (DIC). Currently, the coefficient of thermal expansion is found through a time intensive process called dilatometry. There are multiple types of dilatometers. One type, a double push rod mechanical dilatometer, uses and LVDT to measure the expansion of a specimen in one direction. It uses a reference material with known properties to determine the CTE of the specimen in question. Testing about 500 samples using the double push rod mechanical dilatometer would take about 2 years if testing Monday through Friday, because the reference material needs to be at a constant temperature and heating must done slowly to ensure no thermal gradients across the rod. A second type, scissors type dilatometer, pinches a sample using a “scissor-like” appendage that also uses a LVDT to measure thermal expansion as the sample is heated. Finally, laser dilatometry, was created to provide a non-contact means to measure thermal expansion. This process greatly reduces the time required to setup a measurement but is still only able to measure one sample at a time. The time required to test 500 samples gets reduced to 3.5 weeks. Additionally, to measure expansion in different directions, multiple lasers must be used. Dr. Fitzgerald solved this conundrum by using an optical measurement technique called digital image correlation to create strain maps in multiple orientations as well as measuring multiple samples at once. Using this technique, Dr. Fitzgerald can test 500 samples, conservatively, in 2 days.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Significantly Promoting the Thermal Conductivity and Machinability of Negative Thermal Expansion Alloy via In Situ Precipitation of Copper Networks

Rapid advancements in electronic devices yield an urgent demand for high-performance electronic packaging materials with high thermal conductivity, low thermal expansion, and great mechanical properties. However, it is a great challenge for current design philosophies to fulfill all the requirements simultaneously. Here, an effective strategy is proposed for significantly promoting the thermal conductivity and machinability of negative thermal expansion alloy (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 through eutectic precipitation of copper networks. The eutectic dual-phase alloy exhibits an isotropic chips-matched thermal expansion coefficient and a thermal conductivity enhancement exceeding 200% compared with (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , along with an ultimate compressive strength of 550 MPa. The addition of copper reorganizes the composition of (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , which smooths the magnetic transition and shifts it toward higher temperature, resulting in linear low thermal expansion in a wide temperature range. The highly fine eutectic copper lamellae construct high thermal conductivity networks within (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , serving as highways for heat transfer electrons and phonons. The in situ forming of eutectic copper lamellae also facilitates the mechanical properties by enhancing interfacial bonding and bearing additional stress after yielding of (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 . This work provides a novel strategy for promoting thermal conductivity and mechanical properties of negative thermal expansion alloys via eutectic precipitation of copper networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strong coupling expansion of free energy and BPS Wilson loop in $$ \mathcal{N} $$ = 2 superconformal models with fundamental hypermultiplets

As a continuation of the study (in arXiv:2102.07696 and arXiv:2104.12625 ) of strong-coupling expansion of non-planar corrections in $ \mathcal{N} $ = 2 4d superconformal models we consider two special theories with gauge groups SU( N ) and Sp(2 N ). They contain N -independent numbers of hypermultiplets in rank 2 antisymmetric and fundamental representations and are planar-equivalent to the corresponding $ \mathcal{N} $ = 4 SYM theories. These $ \mathcal{N} $ = 2 theories can be realised on a system of N D3-branes with a finite number of D7-branes and O7-plane; the dual string theories should be particular orientifolds of AdS 5 × S 5 superstring. Starting with the localization matrix model representation for the $ \mathcal{N} $ = 2 partition function on S 4 we find exact differential relations between the 1 /N terms in the corresponding free energy F and the $ \frac{1}{2} $ -BPS Wilson loop expectation value $ \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle $ and also compute their large ’t Hooft coupling ( λ » 1) expansions. The structure of these expansions is different from the previously studied models without fundamental hypermultiplets. In the more tractable Sp(2 N ) case we find an exact resummed expression for the leading strong coupling terms at each order in the 1 /N expansion. We also determine the exponentially suppressed at large λ contributions to the non-planar corrections to F and $ \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle $ and comment on their resurgence properties. We discuss dual string theory interpretation of these strong coupling expansions.

1/N expansion↗

DOE OSTI2021

The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediately electrified. This assumption is unrealistic in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification will likely be a gradual process over a number of years. Furthermore, since a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is located in rural regions, the prioritization of these regions may impact how the grid develops. In this research, we develop a multi-period optimization model for power generation and transmission system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to existing models, which assume full electrification, we consider a variety of electrification policies and analyze the impact of varying the electrification rate and policy on the cost and resources selected for power system expansion. We test our model on a case study of Rwanda. We find that varying the year in which full electrification is reached has a larger impact on cost and generation capacity than varying the electrification policy does, although, when urban and rural regions are considered equitably, more rooftop solar is built. Varying the electrification policies has a larger impact on transmission expansion than on generation expansion and this impact is amplified when starting from zero initial system capacity rather than the original Rwanda system. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis shows that tightening the bounds on CO 2eq emissions has a large impact on the generation portfolio and cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Alkali-silica reaction expansion model for confined concrete with stress-dependency and casting direction anisotropy

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) is a deleterious chemical reaction between alkali hydroxyl ions and types of silica found in some aggregates of concrete. Owners and regulators of nuclear power plants aim to ensure the safety of the concrete structures with optimal maintenance strategies. A new model was developed for predicting the expansion of concrete structures affected by alkali-silica reaction. The model includes a novel combination of existing models as an alkali-silica reaction advancement model, a casting direction anisotropic expansion model, a stress-dependent anisotropic expansion model, and a material property evolution model dependent on the degree of ASR expansion. The model parameters were calibrated based on existing literature data and data generated by previous efforts of this study. The calibrated model was then validated with the experiments carried out in previous efforts of this study. The model was shown to accurately predict the ASR-expansion of large-scale reinforced concrete specimens with confinement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning approach to predict thermal expansion of complex oxides

Although it is of scientific and practical importance, the state-of-the-art of predicting the thermal expansion of oxides over broad temperature and composition ranges by physics-based atomistic simulations is currently limited to qualitative agreements. We present an emerging machine learning (ML) approach to accurately predict the thermal expansion of cubic oxides with a dataset consisting of experimentally measured lattice parameters while using the metal cation polyhedron and temperature as descriptors. High-fidelity ML models that can accurately predict temperature- and composition-dependent lattice parameters of cubic oxides with isotropic thermal expansions have been successfully trained. The ML-predicted thermal expansions of oxides not included in the training dataset have shown good agreement with available experiments. The limitations of the current approach and challenges to go beyond cubic oxides with isotropic thermal expansion are also briefly discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Insights into the Thermal Expansion of Amorphous Polymers

Here, we investigated the thermal expansion of amorphous polystyrene (PS) and poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) homopolymers using the temperature dependence of spatial electron-density correlations. The strong and broad X-ray interference maxima arising from inter- and intramolecular correlation distances were distinct, maintaining their shape during the heating of the samples to 250 °C. Three maxima characteristic of electron density correlations between the backbones, substituents along the chain, and repeat-units were observed. A remarkable temperature dependence was identified in the largest correlation distances arising from the intermolecular interactions. Based on the temperature dependence of the correlation distances, the coefficients of molecular expansion were very close to the coefficients of thermal expansion. This study provides a simple yet accurate way to correlate macroscopic volume expansions with the molecular expansion obtained from wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Node Distortions in UiO-66 Inform Negative Thermal Expansion Mechanisms: Kinetic Effects, Frustration, and Lattice Hysteresis

In metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) the interplay between the dynamics of individual components and how these are constrained by the extended lattice can yield unusual emergent phenomena. For the archetypal Zr-MOF, UiO-66, we explore the cooperative dynamics of a Zr-node transformation that gives rise to negative thermal expansion (NTE). Here, using in situ synchrotron X-ray scattering, with powder diffraction and pair distribution function (PDF) analyses, we identify lattice hysteresis and a thermal ramp-rate-dependence of the thermal expansion. Specifically, kinetic trapping of distorted node states formed at high temperature, leads to broad variability in the apparent thermal expansion which ranges from large positive to large negative thermal expansion with coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) from +45 to –80 × 10 –6 K –1 . Time-resolved relaxation studies at selected temperatures suggest that when equilibrated UiO-66 is intrinsically NTE, with a CTE of –35 × 10 –6 K –1 . Kinetic trapping of the node-distorted state following high temperature activation has broad implications for characterization and applications of these Zr-MOFs; the nonequilibrium node state depends on the thermal history of the sample with quench vs slow cooling likely to impact gas binding, pore volume, and accessible catalytic sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗