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DOE OSTI2026

Classical combinatorial optimization scaling for random Ising models on 2D heavy-hex graphs

Motivated by near term quantum computing hardware limitations, combinatorial optimization problems that can be addressed by current quantum algorithms and noisy hardware with little or no overhead are used to probe capabilities of quantum algorithms such as the quantum approximate optimization algorithm. In this study, a specific class of near term quantum computing hardware defined combinatorial optimization problems, Ising models on heavy-hex graphs both with and without geometrically local cubic terms, are examined for their classical computational hardness via empirical computation time scaling quantification. Specifically the time-to-solution (TTS) metric using the classical heuristic simulated annealing is measured for finding optimal variable assignments (ground states), as well as the time required for the optimization software Gurobi to find an optimal variable assignment. Because of the sparsity of these Ising models, the classical algorithms are able to find optimal solutions efficiently even for large instances (i.e. 100 000 spin variables). The Ising models both with and without geometrically local cubic terms exhibit average-case linear-time or weakly quadratic scaling when solved exactly using Gurobi, and the Ising models with no cubic terms show evidence of exponential-time TTS scaling when sampled using simulated annealing. These findings point to the necessity of developing and testing more complex, namely more densely connected, optimization problems in order for quantum computing to ever have a practical advantage over classical computing. Our results are another illustration that different classical algorithms can indeed have exponentially different running times, thus making the identification of the best practical classical technique important in any quantum computing vs. classical computing comparison.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing Prospects for Quantum Advantage in Topological Data Analysis

Lloyd [Nat. Commun. , 10138 (2016)] were first to demonstrate the promise of quantum algorithms for computing Betti numbers, a way to characterize topological features of data sets. Here, we propose, analyze, and optimize an improved quantum algorithm for topological data analysis (TDA) with reduced scaling, including a method for preparing Dicke states based on inequality testing, a more efficient amplitude estimation algorithm using Kaiser windows, and an optimal implementation of eigenvalue projectors based on Chebyshev polynomials. We compile our approach to a fault-tolerant gate set and estimate constant factors in the Toffoli complexity. Our analysis reveals that superquadratic quantum speedups are only possible for this problem when targeting a multiplicative error approximation and the Betti number grows asymptotically. Further, we propose a dequantization of the quantum TDA algorithm that shows that having exponentially large dimension and Betti number are necessary, but insufficient conditions, for superpolynomial advantage. We then introduce and analyze specific problem examples which have parameters in the regime where superpolynomial advantages may be achieved, and argue that quantum circuits with tens of billions of Toffoli gates can solve seemingly classically intractable instances. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Explaining Soft-Goal Conflicts through Constraint Relaxations

Recent work suggests to explain trade-offs between soft goals in terms of their conflicts, i. e., minimal unsolvable soft-goal subsets. But this does not explain the conflicts themselves: Why can a given set of soft-goals not be jointly achieved? Here we approach that question in terms of the underlying constraints on plans in the task at hand, namely resource availability and time windows. In this context, a natural form of explanation for a soft-goal conflict is a minimal constraint relaxation under which the conflict disappears (“if the deadline was 1 hour later, it would work”). We explore algorithms for computing such explanations. A baseline is to simply loop over all relaxed tasks and compute the conflicts for each separately. We improve over this by two algorithms that leverage information – conflicts, reachable states – across relaxed tasks. We show that these algorithms can exponentially outperform the baseline in theory, and we run experiments confirming that advantage in practice.

Planning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Parallel exponential time differencing methods for geophysical flow simulations

Two ocean models are considered for geophysical flow simulations: the multilayer shallow water equations and the multilayer primitive equations. For the former, we investigate the parallel performance of exponential time differencing (ETD) methods, including exponential Rosenbrock–Euler, ETD2wave, and B-ETD2wave. For the latter, we take advantage of the splitting of barotropic and baroclinic modes and propose a new two-level method in which an ETD method is applied to solve the fast barotropic mode. Furthermore, these methods could improve the computational efficiency of numerical simulations because ETD methods allow for much larger time step sizes than traditional explicit time-stepping techniques that are commonly used in existing computational ocean models. Several standard benchmark tests for ocean modeling are performed and comparison of the numerical results demonstrates a great potential of applying the parallel ETD methods for simulating real-world geophysical flows.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Performance and state-space analyses of systems using Petri nets

The goal of any modeling methodology is to develop a mathematical description of a system that is accurate in its representation and also permits analysis of structural and/or performance properties. Inherently, trade-offs exist between the level detail in the model and the ease with which analysis can be performed. Petri nets (PN's), a highly graphical modeling methodology for Discrete Event Dynamic Systems, permit representation of shared resources, finite capacities, conflict, synchronization, concurrency, and timing between state changes. By restricting the state transition time delays to the family of exponential density functions, Markov chain analysis of performance problems is possible. One major drawback of PN's is the tendency for the state-space to grow rapidly (exponential complexity) compared to increases in the PN constructs. It is the state space, or the Markov chain obtained from it, that is needed in the solution of many problems. The theory of state-space size estimation for PN's is introduced. The problem of state-space size estimation is defined, its complexities are examined, and estimation algorithms are developed. Both top-down and bottom-up approaches are pursued, and the advantages and disadvantages of each are described. Additionally, the author's research in non-exponential transition modeling for PN's is discussed. An algorithm for approximating non-exponential transitions is developed. Since only basic PN constructs are used in the approximation, theory already developed for PN's remains applicable. Comparison to results from entropy theory show the transition performance is close to the theoretic optimum. Inclusion of non-exponential transition approximations improves performance results at the expense of increased state-space size. The state-space size estimation theory provides insight and algorithms for evaluating this trade-off.

Watson, James Francis, III↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantum Fourier transform revisited

Summary The fast Fourier transform (FFT) is one of the most successful numerical algorithms of the 20th century and has found numerous applications in many branches of computational science and engineering. The FFT algorithm can be derived from a particular matrix decomposition of the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) matrix. In this paper, we show that the quantum Fourier transform (QFT) can be derived by further decomposing the diagonal factors of the FFT matrix decomposition into products of matrices with Kronecker product structure. We analyze the implication of this Kronecker product structure on the discrete Fourier transform of rank‐1 tensors on a classical computer. We also explain why such a structure can take advantage of an important quantum computer feature that enables the QFT algorithm to attain an exponential speedup on a quantum computer over the FFT algorithm on a classical computer. Further, the connection between the matrix decomposition of the DFT matrix and a quantum circuit is made. We also discuss a natural extension of a radix‐2 QFT decomposition to a radix‐ d QFT decomposition. No prior knowledge of quantum computing is required to understand what is presented in this paper. Yet, we believe this paper may help readers to gain some rudimentary understanding of the nature of quantum computing from a matrix computation point of view.

Camps, Daan↗

DOE OSTI2025

GMFOLD: Subgraph matching for high-throughput DNA-aptamer secondary structure classification and machine learning interpretability

Aptamers are oligonucleotide receptors that bind to their targets with high affinity. Here, we consider aptamers comprised of single-stranded DNA that undergo target-binding-induced conformational changes, giving rise to unique secondary and tertiary structures. Given a specific aptamer primary sequence, there are well-established computational tools (notably mfold) to predict the secondary structure via free energy minimization algorithms. While mfold generates secondary structures for individual sequences, there is a need for a high-throughput process whereby thousands of DNA structures can be predicted in real-time for use in an interactive setting, when combined with aptamer selections that generate candidate pools that are too large to be experimentally interrogated. We developed a new Python code for high-throughput aptamer secondary structure determination (GMfold). GMfold uses subgraph matching methods to group aptamer candidates by secondary structure similarities. We also improve an open-source code, SeqFold, to incorporate subgraph matching concepts. We represent each secondary structure as a lowest-energy bipartite subgraph matching of the DNA graph to itself. These new tools enable thousands of DNA sequences to be compared based on their secondary structures, using machine-learning algorithms. This process is advantageous when analyzing sequences that arise from aptamer selections via systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment (SELEX). This work is a building block for future machine-learning-informed DNA-aptamer selection processes to identify aptamers with improved target affinity and selectivity and advance aptamer biosensors and therapeutics.

Aptamer↗

NASA NTRS1987

Simplified solution for a class of fading memory filters

A fading memory filter is a least squares estimator (LSE) that applies an exponentially decaying weight to past measurements. When compared with a standard Kalman filter, its key advantages are asymptotic stability and reduced sensitivity to modeling errors. This paper derives a simple solution for a class of fading memory filters, resulting in a reduction in computational complexity. Steady state filter solutions are obtained for second- and third-order filters used in a global positioning system (GPS) receiver for high dynamic vehicles.

Statman, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Abstract-Reasoning Software for Coordinating Multiple Agents

A computer program for scheduling the activities of multiple agents that share limited resources has been incorporated into the Automated Scheduling and Planning Environment (ASPEN) software system, aspects of which have been reported in several previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. In the original intended application, the agents would be multiple spacecraft and/or robotic vehicles engaged in scientific exploration of distant planets. The program could also be used on Earth in such diverse settings as production lines and military maneuvers. This program includes a planning/scheduling subprogram of the iterative repair type that reasons about the activities of multiple agents at abstract levels in order to greatly improve the scheduling of their use of shared resources. The program summarizes the information about the constraints on, and resource requirements of, abstract activities on the basis of the constraints and requirements that pertain to their potential refinements (decomposition into less-abstract and ultimately to primitive activities). The advantage of reasoning about summary information is that time needed to find consistent schedules is exponentially smaller than the time that would be needed for reasoning about the same tasks at the primitive level.

Clement, Bradley↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exponential concentration in quantum kernel methods

Kernel methods in Quantum Machine Learning (QML) have recently gained significant attention as a potential candidate for achieving a quantum advantage in data analysis. Among other attractive properties, when training a kernel-based model one is guaranteed to find the optimal model’s parameters due to the convexity of the training landscape. However, this is based on the assumption that the quantum kernel can be efficiently obtained from quantum hardware. In this work we study the performance of quantum kernel models from the perspective of the resources needed to accurately estimate kernel values. We show that, under certain conditions, values of quantum kernels over different input data can be exponentially concentrated (in the number of qubits) towards some fixed value. Thus on training with a polynomial number of measurements, one ends up with a trivial model where the predictions on unseen inputs are independent of the input data. We identify four sources that can lead to concentration including expressivity of data embedding, global measurements, entanglement and noise. For each source, an associated concentration bound of quantum kernels is analytically derived. Lastly, we show that when dealing with classical data, training a parametrized data embedding with a kernel alignment method is also susceptible to exponential concentration. Our results are verified through numerical simulations for several QML tasks. Altogether, we provide guidelines indicating that certain features should be avoided to ensure the efficient evaluation of quantum kernels and so the performance of quantum kernel methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adapting Quantum Approximation Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) for Unit Commitment

In the present Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ), hybrid algorithms that leverage classical resources to reduce quantum costs are particularly appealing. We formulate and apply such a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to a power system optimization problem called Unit Commitment, which aims to satisfy a target power load at minimal cost. Our algorithm extends the Quantum Approximation Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) with a classical minimizer in order to support mixed binary optimization. Using Qiskit, we simulate results for sample systems to validate the effectiveness of our approach. Here, we also compare to purely classical methods. Our results indicate that classical solvers are effective for our simulated Unit Commitment instances with fewer than 400 power generation units. However, for larger problem instances, the classical solvers either scale exponentially in runtime or must resort to coarse approximations. This opens the door to potential quantum advantage for systems with several hundred units, though quantum error correction may be necessary at this scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unbounded Learning Environments as an Approach to Preserving Design Flexibility Demonstrated With Nasa Stem Enhancement in Earth Science (SEES) Students

The Artemis Lunar program is providing opportunity for young scientists and engineers to contribute towards leading edge design concepts regarding early on-surface work areas that are aligned with major national initiatives. Therefore, it is imperative in any discovery process that those young scientists and engineers be provided the bandwidth or operating in a ‘greenfield’ technology environment that encourages new ideas, and perhaps the discovery of ideas that would not be realized within typical structured engineering constraints. To facilitate this concept, the use of unbounded teaching methods was utilized to provide a low-constraint environment from which students can design and discover the requirements that are bounded by the natural environment of the lunar surface, and then build up design requirements un-hindered by budgetary and/or logistics realizations of the moment funding capabilities. Specifically, this design exercise provided the students to operate with unlimited budgets, and unlimited up-mass lifts to the lunar surface to develop a preliminary feasible process for establishing a working lunar research based upon the near-area permanently shadowed regions within the lunar surface. In concept, working near PSRs will be advantageous as they receive near eternal shielding from solar radiation and may potentially host numerous volatile substances such as water ice, methane, hydrogen sulfide and helium-3 that will be the target of scientific investigation and in-situ resource utilization ISRU. The advantage of an upstream working area is that the quality of return materials could potentially be exponential when including an upstream analysis prior to earth-return missions. Furthermore, it’s well known within the scientific and engineering community that working with the base materials in front of human eyes elucidates new features and observations that may not survive when stored and shipped to Earth. Finally, it is theorized that these methods and techniques developing on the lunar surface would be applicable to other planets or cometary surfaces.

Education↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D printing of ceramics: Advantages, challenges, applications, and perspectives

Abstract 3D printing (3DP) technologies have transformed the processing of advanced ceramics for small‐scale and custom designs during the past three decades. Simple and complex parts are designed and manufactured using 3DP technologies for structural, piezoelectric, and biomedical applications. Manufacturing simple or complex geometries or one‐of‐a‐kind components without part‐specific tooling saves significant time and creates new applications for advanced ceramic materials. Although development and innovations in 3DP of ceramics are far behind compared with metals or polymers, with the availability of different commercial machines in recent years for 3DP of ceramics, exponential growth is expected in this field in the coming decade. This article details various 3DP technologies for advanced ceramic materials, their advantages and challenges for manufacturing parts for various applications, and perspectives on future directions. We envision this work will be helpful to advanced ceramic researchers in industry and academia who are using different 3DP processes in the coming days.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Can Error Mitigation Improve Trainability of Noisy Variational Quantum Algorithms?

Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs) are often viewed as the best hope for near-term quantum advantage. However, recent studies have shown that noise can severely limit the trainability of VQAs, e.g., by exponentially flattening the cost landscape and suppressing the magnitudes of cost gradients. Error Mitigation (EM) shows promise in reducing the impact of noise on near-term devices. Thus, it is natural to ask whether EM can improve the trainability of VQAs. In this work, we first show that, for a broad class of EM strategies, exponential cost concentration cannot be resolved without committing exponential resources elsewhere. This class of strategies includes as special cases Zero Noise Extrapolation, Virtual Distillation, Probabilistic Error Cancellation, and Clifford Data Regression. Second, we perform analytical and numerical analysis of these EM protocols, and we find that some of them (e.g., Virtual Distillation) can make it harder to resolve cost function values compared to running no EM at all. As a positive result, we do find numerical evidence that Clifford Data Regression (CDR) can aid the training process in certain settings where cost concentration is not too severe. Our results show that care should be taken in applying EM protocols as they can either worsen or not improve trainability. On the other hand, our positive results for CDR highlight the possibility of engineering error mitigation methods to improve trainability.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exponential time differencing for the tracer equations appearing in primitive equation ocean models

The tracer equations are part of the primitive equations used in ocean modeling and describe the transport of tracers, such as temperature, salinity or chemicals, in the ocean. Depending on the number of tracers considered, several equations may be added to and coupled to the dynamics system. In many relevant situations, the time-step requirements of explicit methods imposed by the transport and mixing in the vertical direction are more restrictive than those for the horizontal, and this may cause the need to use very small time steps if a fully explicit method is employed. To overcome this issue, we propose an exponential time differencing (ETD) solver where the vertical terms (transport and diffusion) are treated with a matrix exponential, whereas the horizontal terms are dealt with in an explicit way. In this work, we investigate numerically the computational speed-ups that can be obtained over other semi-implicit methods, and we analyze the advantages of the method in the case of multiple tracers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Limitations of Fault-Tolerant Quantum Linear System Solvers for Quantum Power Flow

Quantum computers hold promise for solving problems intractable for classical computers, especially those with high time or space complexity. Practical quantum advantage can be said to exist for such problems when the end-to-end time for solving such a problem using a classical algorithm exceeds that required by a quantum algorithm. Reducing the power flow (PF) problem into a linear system of equations allows for the formulation of quantum PF (QPF) algorithms, which are based on solving methods for quantum linear systems such as the Harrow-Hassidim-Lloyd (HHL) algorithm. Speedup from using QPF algorithms is often claimed to be exponential when compared to classical PF solved by state-of-the-art algorithms. Here, we investigate the potential for practical quantum advantage in solving QPF compared to classical methods on gate-based quantum computers. Notably, this paper does not present a new QPF solving algorithm but scrutinizes the end-to-end complexity of the QPF approach, providing a nuanced evaluation of the purported quantum speedup in this problem. Our analysis establishes a best-case bound for the HHL-based quantum power flow complexity, conclusively demonstrating that the HHL-based method has higher runtime complexity compared to the classical algorithm for solving the direct current power flow (DCPF) and fast decoupled load flow (FDLF) problem. Notably, our analysis and conclusions can be extended to any quantum linear system solver with rigorous performance guarantees, based on the known complexity lower bounds for this problem. Additionally, we establish that for potential practical quantum advantage (PQA) to exist it is necessary to consider DCPF-type problems with a very narrow range of condition number values and readout requirements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantum simulation of nuclear inelastic scattering

We present a time-dependent quantum algorithm for nuclear inelastic scattering in the time-dependent basis function on qubits approach. This algorithm aims to quantum simulate a subset of the nuclear inelastic scattering problems that are of physical interest in which the internal degrees of freedom of the reaction system are excited by time-dependent external interactions. We expect that our algorithm will enable an exponential speedup in simulating the dynamics of the subset of the inelastic scattering problems, which would also be advantageous for the applications to more complicated scattering problems. For a demonstration problem, we solve for the Coulomb excitation of the deuteron, where the quantum simulations are performed with IBM Qiskit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗