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DOE OSTI2024

Plasma performance and operational space with an RMP-ELM suppressed edge

Abstract The operational space and global performance of plasmas with edge-localized modes (ELMs) suppressed by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) are surveyed by comparing AUG, DIII-D, EAST, and KSTAR stationary operating points. RMP-ELM suppression is achieved over a range of plasma currents, toroidal fields, and RMP toroidal mode numbers. Consistent operational windows in edge safety factor are found across devices, while windows in plasma shaping parameters are distinct. Accessed pedestal parameters reveal a quantitatively similar pedestal-top density limit for RMP-ELM suppression in all devices of just over 3 × 10 19 m −3 . This is surprising given the wide variance of many engineering parameters and edge collisionalities, and poses a challenge to extrapolation of the regime. Wide ranges in input power, confinement time, and stored energy are observed, with the achieved triple product found to scale like the product of current, field, and radius. Observed energy confinement scaling with engineering parameters for RMP-ELM suppressed plasmas are presented and compared with expectations from established H and L-mode scalings, including treatment of uncertainty analysis. Different scaling exponents for individual engineering parameters are found as compared to the established scalings. However, extrapolation to next-step tokamaks ITER and SPARC find overall consistency within uncertainties with the established scalings, finding no obvious performance penalty when extrapolating from the assembled multi-device RMP-ELM suppressed database. Overall this work identifies common physics for RMP-ELM suppression and highlights the need to pursue this no-ELM regime at higher magnetic field and different plasma physical size.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exponentially Reduced Circuit Depths Using Trotter Error Mitigation

Product formulas are a popular class of digital quantum simulation algorithms due to their conceptual simplicity, low overhead, and performance, which often exceeds theoretical expectations. Recently, Richardson extrapolation and polynomial interpolation have been proposed to mitigate the Trotter error incurred by the use of these formulas. This work provides a rigorous, general analysis of these techniques for computing time-evolved observables, simplifying the interpolation algorithm in the process, and shows that extrapolation generically improves the performance of product formulas for this task. We demonstrate that, to achieve error 𝜖 in a simulation of time 𝑇 using a 𝑝 ⁢th-order product formula with extrapolation, circuit depths of 𝑂⁡(𝑇 1+1/𝑝 ⁢polylog (1/𝜖)) are sufficient—an exponential improvement in the precision over product formulas alone. Furthermore, we prove that these algorithms achieve commutator scaling, and improve the 𝑇 complexity for the interpolation algorithm. By relaxing the requirement of performing exact Chebyshev interpolation, our simplified algorithm eliminates the need for fractional implementations of Trotter steps, reducing computational overhead. Finally, we show these techniques can be combined with the classical shadows method to estimate many time-evolved local observables. Taken together, our findings provide the strongest evidence yet for the utility of Trotter error-mitigation techniques in algorithmic applications.

quantum algorithms & computation↗

DOE OSTI2024

16 O ⁡(𝑒,𝑒′⁢𝛼)⁢ 12 C measurements and the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O astrophysical reaction rate

The 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O reaction, an important component of stellar helium burning, has a key role in nuclear astrophysics. It has significant impact on the evolution and final state of heavy to low mass stars, maximum mass of stellar formed black holes and also shapes the elemental abundances resulting from nucleosynthesis in such stars. Providing a reliable estimate for the energy dependence of this reaction at stellar helium burning temperatures has been a longstanding and important goal. In this work, we study the role of potential new 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 measurements of the 16 O ⁡(𝑒,𝑒′⁢𝛼)⁢ 12 C reaction in reducing the overall uncertainty in the astrophysical 𝑆 factor for the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 ground state capture extrapolated to a stellar energy of 300 keV. A multilevel 𝑅-matrix analysis is used to make extrapolations of the 𝑆 𝐸⁢1 (300 keV) and 𝑆 𝐸⁢2 (300 keV) factors for the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O reaction from existing ground state capture data. Bayesian analysis is used to quantify the uncertainties in the extrapolations for both the existing data alone and also when possible new experimental data are included. In particular, we consider a new experiment that would make use of a high-intensity low-energy electron beam that impinges on a windowless oxygen gas target as a means to determine the total 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 ground state cross sections for this reaction. Here we find that the new data could significantly reduce the 𝑆⁡(300) uncertainties. Splitting the new data into high and low energy regions shows that both low and high energy data are effective in reducing the uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Considerations for Estimating Degradation in PV Modules

Carefully controlled laboratory experiments and measurements can enable the determination of acceleration factors suitable for extrapolation to durability and performance of a fielded PV module. Ideally, a single mechanism can be identified with appropriate acceleration factors for extrapolation to the field. However, even with a single mechanism, the inherent uncertainty in these factors leads to uncertainty in the extrapolation which is greater the higher the acceleration factor. This course will explain how because of the wide range of acceleration factors for a given degradation mode, utilizing acceleration factors greater than about 10x will typically lead to unacceptable uncertainty in the results. Therefore, if even just a rank ordering of materials is desired, acceleration factors must be minimized which requires a good general understanding of the scale of the different acceleration factors for the degradation mode of interest. In this tutorial we will discuss what the different purposes are for many of the accelerated stress tests used today. E.g., what is a qualification test, a highly accelerated stress test, a rank ordering test, or a service life prediction test. We will discuss how one can understand the relationship between test results and expected field performance. A single accelerated stress test condition cannot duplicate outdoor exposure for all possible degradation pathways; therefore, one must use targeted evaluation of material properties at different stress levels to determine the relevant acceleration factors and fit it to a model. We will also discuss how to interpret the results of experiments understanding what is relevant/not relevant, or not e valuated in a test. There are many common error people make in their test interpretations because they push the stress levels to be too harsh. This creates biases and can mask the relevant failure modes and mechanisms or will erroneously lead one to over design materials against things that aren't relevant. Several case studies will be presented to illustrate appropriate interpretation of accelerated stress testing results.

degradation↗

DOE OSTI2024

The "PVLib" of Degradation: PVDeg

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs through higher-efficiency cells, improved module designs, and improvements in durability. This leads to the use of new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, and not always with a sufficient amount of durability testing. To help drive down costs there is a desire to create modules that will last for up to 50 years of service life. To accomplish this, every degradation mode and mechanism must be identified and either eliminated or otherwise mitigated. This involves the extrapolation of laboratory results to the field conditions. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. While the basic equations used to model degradation are sometimes very simple, the full analysis involves calculations are cumbersome but ubiquitous for many degradation processes. A simplified, modeling framework to accomplish these repetitive processes will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this talk, we will describe our progress creating the open-source tool PVDeg. This tool can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. PVDeg simplifies many of the common foundational computational operations for obtaining meteorological data and using it to generate a model of the PV deployment. This prediction tool repository also contains various degradation models as well as a library of material parameters suitable for estimating the durability assessment of materials and components. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database, and other weather sources, to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry. During the talk, we will provide the PVPMC attendees the opportunity to interact with the tool via a Google Collab tutorial they can run on their phones or laptops.

durability↗

DOE OSTI2026

Computing the Critical Temperature of the Affine-Transformed $D=3$ Ising Model Using Masked Autoregressive Flow

The simple Ising model provides a rich environment to build and study lattice field theories. As part of an ongoing project to construct a conformal field theory (CFT) on an arbitrarily curved manifold, in this work we develop methods to measure the critical temperature $β_c$ of the affine-transformed Ising model on the face-centered cubic (FCC) lattice. The main challenge in this endeavor is finding a computationally efficient and accurate method of interpolating and extrapolating Monte Carlo observables with respect to coupling coefficients and temperature. Herein, we compare two such methods. A traditional statistical approach uses the multiple histogram (MH) method, while a newer machine learning approach uses a masked autoregressive flow (MAF) to estimate the underlying probability density function of a set of observables. While the MH method is specifically designed to interpolate and extrapolate Monte Carlo observables, we find that MAF is a viable alternative for measuring $β_c$ with a computational cost that scales more favorably. Furthermore, we comment on additional advantages of MAF relevant to our work, such as extrapolating in system volume.

Svenson, Kai [Texas U.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

A machine-learning-aided data recovery approach for predicting multi-material thermal behaviors in advanced test reactor capsules

Instrumented experiments conducted at test reactors are essential to the deployment of new advanced reactor systems. Designing new experiments and generating data on specific reactor conditions require significant investments in terms of both time and cost. Finite element analysis software can be used to create high-fidelity models of experiment environments in order to support the actual experiments, but computation time remains a concern in terms of applying outcomes to real-time usage of data (e.g., a digital twin [DT]). Here, the present research proposes a machine-learning (ML) aided approach to making temperature and displacement predictions based on the thickness of the outer gas gap on the experimental capsule used for in-pile demonstration of a novel new thermal conductivity probe in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). This capsule consisted of U10Zr fuel, a rodlet, sodium, and inner and outer capsules. Gas gaps existed between the fuel and the rodlet, and between the inner and the outer capsule. The learning data pertained to an experimental capsule's radial distributions of temperature and displacement, as obtained based on Abaqus and the physical features. For the first step of ML sequence, the temperature was predicted using three positional parameters. Next, the displacement was predicted using seven additional parameters. Each physical feature was normalized in order to be both nondimensional and standardized. The temperature and displacement predictions showed good agreement with the simulation results in all cases involving interpolation and extrapolation. Furthermore, data similarity enhancement increased the similarity between the training and the target data, thereby increasing the predictive accuracy of the ML models. In certain extrapolation cases involving limited original ML model accuracy, data similarity enhancement and data recovery was able to somewhat improve this accuracy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Voltage Calculations in Secondary Distribution Networks via Physics-Inspired Neural Network Using Smart Meter Data

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) leads to voltage issues across distribution networks, necessitating voltage calculations by utilities. Electric model-free voltage calculation offers an enticing solution. However, most researches mainly focus on primary distribution networks ignoring secondary distribution networks and commonly overlook extreme voltage case calculations, which require the model’s extrapolation abilities. Here, in addressing the gaps, this paper presents a customized physics-inspired neural network (PINN) model, the structure of which is inspired by the derived coupled power flow model of primary-secondary distribution networks. To ensure precision and rapid convergence, a crafted training framework for the PINN model is proposed. The PINN’s “structure-mimetic” design enables superior extrapolation for unseen scenarios and enhances physical information awareness. We demonstrate this through two applications: hosting capacity analysis and customer-transformer connectivity. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed PINN model are validated on two public testing systems and one utility distribution feeder model.

Distribution network↗

DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling Acid‐Base Chemistry through Blue Shifting Hydrogen Bond Contributions

The blue shifting of vibrational frequencies in hydrogen bonded molecules, as observed in aqueous environments, has been attributed to local partial charge transfer from solvation. Here, in this study, we extrapolate the blue shift model to the stronger ionic interactions between hydrogen bond acceptors associated with protonation through augmented pH levels and competitive interactions with counter ion pairing. The chemical model we utilize in this work is the aqueous pyridine‐pyridinium equilibrium to characterize the blue shifts observed in the pyridinium chloride ionic system. The observed agreement between observed experimental and calculated spectral shifts shows that the blue shifting model can be extrapolated to stronger interactions and accurately describe the nature of the hydrogen bond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

On tests for baby universes in AdS/CFT

To address a puzzle by Antonini and Rath — where a single CFT state has two bulk duals, one with a baby universe and one without — Engelhardt and Gesteau recently devised a test for baby universes in AdS/CFT. Using the extrapolate dictionary, they showed that the boundary dual of a bulk swap test favored bulk spacetimes without a baby universe, providing evidence against their semiclassical validity. However, recent work suggests that holographic maps should post-select on such closed universes, and we argue that this is consistent with the extrapolate dictionary. We therefore construct a new holographic map for bulk states with baby universes and use this to show that the swap test cannot distinguish between Antonini and Rath’s two candidate bulk duals. This not only allows for a valid semiclassical description of the baby universe, but also enables the application of recent techniques for including observers in holographic maps.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient continuous Energy-Multigroup hybrid depletion scheme using the Shift Monte Carlo code. Part I: Energy condensation sensitivity analysis

Monte Carlo (MC) codes coupled to depletion solvers are increasingly used to provide high fidelity fuel cycle modeling capabilities. Here, these coupled depletion-MC tools produce accurate results in general but can experience nonphysical spatial oscillations when time steps are large or when a system’s dominance ratio approaches unity. Two substepping techniques have been developed previously to remedy and dampen these spatial oscillations without needing to reduce step sizes. The first approach relied on higher-order techniques to account for spectral changes within steps (extrapolation and interpolation techniques). The second approach used the first order perturbation (FOP) theory to account for the change in the one-group spatial flux distribution within steps. This paper develops a hybrid depletion methodology which, in a way, combines how the flux is handled in both substepping techniques. Specifically, the multigroup (MG) MC Shift code is used to update the flux distribution within steps rather than a one-group FOP solver. A fully reflected pincell is investigated, which is not spatially dependent in the MG representation. Thus, the analysis in this paper is an initial demonstration of hybrid depletion. An upcoming companion paper will focus on how the hybrid depletion dampens spatial oscillations. The hybrid depletion approach is verified to be consistent with previous constant extrapolation depletion (CED) methods. This paper finds that the hybrid CED exhibits some error in the eigenvalue and one group constants within macro steps. To address this discrepancy, a simple interpolation scheme (CELI) is investigated. This work found that CELI sufficiently addresses the discrepancy in spectrum for macro steps up to 100 days. Overall, this work demonstrates that the hybrid depletion method can significantly reduce the number of high fidelity MC executions in a MC-coupled depletion with an acceptable eigenvalue error.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the applicability of the Redlich-Kister framework for viscosity estimation of molten halide salt mixtures

For molten halide salt mixtures already being utilized or under consideration for carbon-free energy production systems, it is crucial that their viscosity is well understood so that system thermal hydraulics can be reliably assessed. Because of the difficulty in accurately measuring molten halide viscosity and the sheer size of the matrix of possible higher order salt mixtures that may be of interest to the energy industry, there are several gaps in the quantified understanding of molten halide viscosity across this matrix. As such, both first-principles and semi-empirical modeling techniques may be crucial for rapidly assessing this broad, complex compositional domain. Herein, the Redlich-Kister framework is applied to assess the feasibility of broadly interpolating and estimating the viscosity of several pseudobinary and pseudoternary molten halide salt systems that may be of key interest to the energy industry. The framework is based on the assumption that an ideal component and a nonideal component collectively describe the viscosity as a function of composition and temperature for a given molten halide system. Three different ideal models were considered for the ideal component, including Grunburg-Nissan, Katti-Chaudhri, and Gambill methods. Regarding the pseudobinary interpolations, the Redlich-Kister models with either the Grunburg-Nissan or Katti-Chaudhri models as the ideal component resulted in either highly (average error less than 5%) or reasonably (average error less than 15%) accurate interpolations of pseudobinary halide viscosity; BeF 2 - or UF 4 -bearing salts tended to result in reasonably accurate interpolations, whereas other pseudobinary mixtures tended to show high accuracy. Regarding the pseudoternary extrapolations, the Redlich-Kister framework shows reasonable success at estimating the extent to which a pseudoternary system may indicate deviations from ideal Grunburg-Nissan mixing, where discrepancies with comparative experimental data generally stay within 30%. Finally, the primary reasons identified for such discrepancies are (1) inaccuracy in the underlying experimental data, (2) different complexation behavior in the higher order systems compared to the pseudobinary subsystems, and (3) extrapolation into temperatures too far out of the domain, which is valid for the underlying experimental data feeding the Redlich-Kister model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spectrophotometric determination of the stability of La hydroxyl complexes at near neutral to alkaline pH from 25 to 75 °C

The hydrolysis of rare earth elements (REE) potentially controls their mobility during fluid-rock interaction in a broad range of pH and temperature conditions. However, there is still a lack of thermodynamic data for modeling accurately the stability of REE hydroxyl complexes in hydrothermal aqueous fluids. Here, in this study, UV–Vis spectrophotometric experiments were conducted from 25 to 75 °C in near-neutral to alkaline NaOH-bearing aqueous solutions with varying lanthanum (La) concentrations (0 to ∼0.23 mmol/kg). The color indicator m-cresol purple was used to determine in situ pH and derive the average OH− ligand number ($\overrightarrow{n}$) and formation constants for the La hydroxyl complexes (LaOH 2+ , La(OH) 2 + , and La(OH) 3 0 ). From 25 to 50 °C, $\overrightarrow{n}$ ranges between ∼1 and 2 at pH from 7.0 to 9.3. At 75 °C, $\overrightarrow{n}$ ranges between ∼1.5 and 3 at pH from 6.3 to 8.8. These results suggest the predominance of LaOH 2+ and La(OH) 2 + complexes from 25 to 50 °C, and an increased predominance of La(OH) 3 0 at 75 °C. The cumulative formation constants (β n °, n = 1 to 3) are derived for the reaction La 3+ + nOH − = La(OH) n 3-n , and fitted between 25 and 250 °C by combining the UV–Vis and literature solubility data. The resulting logβ n ° are expressed as function of temperature (T in Kelvin): logβ 1 ° = −1.786 + 0.0133 T + 1.049·10 3 /T; logβ 2 ° = −5.797 + 0.0267 T + 2.713·10 3 /T; logβ 3 ° = 6.435 + 0.0223 T + 512.7/T. A comparison between these new fits and existing extrapolations using the Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state indicates significant differences in the predicted hydrolysis of La. The latter extrapolations should therefore be updated for the hydrolysis of REE.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid assessment of the creep rupture life of metals: A model enabling experimental design

Prediction of the creep rupture life of engineering metals is critical for qualification and design of new materials. The use of long-term creep tests and the need to quantify the performance variability in a priori similar systems hinder the rapid creep assessment of a given material. Therefore, it is essential to develop methods that can extrapolate the long-term performance of alloys and the associated variability from short-term experiments. To this end, this study introduces a new model which enables the estimation of the rupture life of a material for a given stress and temperature. This model relies on two components. First, a new relation for the minimum creep rate (MCR) of materials is introduced. It includes a stress dependent stress exponent allowing the model to capture the variation of MCR across a wide range of temperatures and stresses. Second, employing the Monkman-Grant (MG) law, we establish a relation between stress, temperature and creep rupture life. Together, these two elements yield a new closed-form mathematical expression for the Larson Miller parameter as a function of stress and temperature. This expression captures the creep rupture time for many metals (Gr91, Copper, Gr122 and 347H) and compares favorably with alternate empirical approaches. The model is then used to assess the minimum duration of creep rates necessary to qualify the material up to 100000h. Furthermore, it is found that depending on the material system, creep tests as few as five limited to 5000 h for steels (Gr91, Gr122, 347H) and 100 h for copper are sufficient to model creep lifetimes. Finally, using a Bayesian inference-based approach to calibrate the model, we demonstrate that variability in rupture life can be captured via the quantification of the uncertainty in the model parameters and extrapolated from a limited number of short to moderately short creep tests; thereby paving the way for accelerated creep testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Building a predictive model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dosimetry in organotypically cultured human bronchial epithelial cells using benzo[ a ]pyrene

The airway epithelium is a primary route of exposure for inhaled toxicants, and organotypic culture models represent an important advancement for toxicity testing compared to simple in vitro models that may lack metabolic capability and multicellular structure/communication associated with the bronchial epithelium in vivo. A quantitative understanding of chemical dosimetry is key for interpreting and extrapolating study results; however, dosimetry is understudied in organotypic models limiting ability to predict toxicity. We developed a dosimetry model for primary human bronchial epithelial cells (HBECs) cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI) using benzo[a]pyrene (BAP), a representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Dose and time course evaluation of metabolite formation and enzyme activity and expression were utilized to parameterize a cellular dosimetry model to improve the utility of ALI-HBECs for assessing chemical risk. Dosimetry analysis demonstrated absorption of BAP into cells and an increase in Phase 1 and 2 metabolites over time that correlated with regulation of metabolizing enzymes. BAP was cleared from cells by 48 h after exposure, and the primary metabolites generated in ALI-HBECs were BAP-3-phenol, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8-dihydrodiol, BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8,9,10-tetrol, BAP-3-phenol-glucuronide, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol-glucuronide, and BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol-glucuronide. The resulting dosimetry model described BAP and 7,8-dihydrodiol toxicokinetics in ALI-HBECs and suggested active excretion of 7,8-dihydrodiol. Overall, this study demonstrates metabolic competency of ALI-HBECs for BAP metabolism, demonstrates the usefulness of complex in vitro systems for human-relevant toxicity data, and exhibits how in silico models can be utilized for understanding the dosimetry of test compounds to aid in in vitro to human extrapolation of toxicity data for risk assessments.

Benzo[a]pyrene↗

DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural and Spectroscopic Characterization of Plutonium and Other Tetravalent Metals Complexed to a Keggin Ion

Here, we report the isolation of the first plutonium(IV) complex with a Keggin ion chelator: Cs 20 [Pu(PW 11 O 39 ) 2 ] 2 ·13H 2 O. Single crystal XRD and solid-state UV–vis absorbance analysis demonstrate the stabilization of Pu 4+ by the Keggin ligand. The unit cell contains two [Pu(PW 11 O 39 ) 2 ] 10– complexes (Pu(PW 11 ) 2 ) bridged by Cs + . Raman and 31 P NMR spectra of Pu(PW 11 ) 2 are consistent with the analogous Zr 4+ , Hf 4+ , Ce 4+ , and Th 4+ complexes. The Pu–O bond distances at the two Pu sites are 2.35(3) and 2.34(3) Å, matching the value extrapolated from the bonding trend built with the other 8-coordinated tetravalent cations. However, the long-range arrangement of the Pu(PW 11 ) 2 complexes within the lattice is unique in the series of M IV (PW 11 ) 2 compounds: pairs of Pu(PW 11 ) 2 are organized perpendicular to each other. Based on solution-state UV–visible absorbance, small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), and 31 P NMR, the tetravalent cations quantitatively form the 1:2 species in solution ([Pu(PW 11 O 39 ) 2 ] 10– (aq) ) and no 1:1 species ([Pu(PW 11 O 39 )(H 2 O) x ] 3– (aq) ). Finally, a linear correlation exists between the metal–oxygen distances in the M IV (PW 11 ) 2 compounds and the corresponding metal dioxides, allowing for extrapolation for Pa 4+ , Am 4+ , and Bk 4+ . The results indicate that our microscale POM approach represents a viable pathway to probe properties of rare actinide ions in discrete molecules, beyond the traditional oxide extended solids.

and nuclear chemistry↗