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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Low-Cost, Crack-Tolerant Metallization Using Screen Printing

One of the ways to reduce the cost of solar electricity to 3/kWh, thus reaching parity with fossil-fuel-based generation, is to reduce the degradation rate of solar modules and extend their lifetime well beyond 30 years. The extended module lifetime in turn can positively influence the financial model and the bankability of utility-scale PV projects. Today, the highest-riskpriority solar module degradation mechanism is what is known as hot spots, often induced by cell cracks. In order to address this degradation mechanism, we make use of low-cost, multi-walled carbon nanotubes embedded in commercial screen-printable silver pastes. When the carbon nanotubes are properly functionalized and appropriately incorporated into commercial silver pastes, the resulting metal contacts on solar cells, after screen-printing and firing, show exceptional fracture toughness. These composite metal contacts possess increased ductility, electrical gap-bridging capability up to 50 um, and 'self-healing' to regain electrical continuity even after cycles of complete electrical failure under extreme strain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regulators’ Financial Toolbox: Leveraging Software as a Service, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence in Electric Utilities

The rapid evolution of Software as a Service (SaaS), cloud computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the electric utility industry, reshaping operations, customer engagement, and financial models. This webinar introduced how utilities can deploy advanced software solutions and AI-driven analytics to improve grid efficiency, optimize asset management, and accurately forecast demand.

Bartlett, Phillip↗
NASA NTRS1986

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 1: Executive summary

Over the past two decades, fiber optics has emerged as a highly practical and cost-efficient communications technology. Its competitiveness vis-a-vis other transmission media, especially satellite, has become a critical question. This report studies the likely evolution and application of fiber optic networks in the United States to the end of the century. The outlook for the technology of fiber systems is assessed and forecast, scenarios of the evolution of fiber optic network development are constructed, and costs to provide service are determined and examined parametrically as a function of network size and traffic carried. Volume 1 consists of the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic technology and long distance fiber optic networks. Volume 3 develops a traffic and financial model of a nationwide long distance transmission network. Among the study's most important conclusions are: revenue requirements per circuit for LATA-to-LATA fiber optic links are less than one cent per call minute; multiplex equipment, which is likely to be required in any competing system, is the largest contributor to circuit costs; the potential capacity of fiber optic cable is very large and as yet undefined; and fiber optic transmission combined with other network optimization schemes can lead to even lower costs than those identified in this study.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1986

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 2: Fiber optic technology and long distance networks

The study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1986

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 3: Advanced networks and economics

This study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1987

Communications satellite systems operations with the space station, volume 2

A financial model was developed which described quantitatively the economics of the space segment of communication satellite systems. The model describes the economics of the space system throughout the lifetime of the satellite. The expected state-of-the-art status of communications satellite systems and operations beginning service in 1995 were assessed and described. New or enhanced space-based activities and associated satellite system designs that have the potential to achieve future communications satellite operations in geostationary orbit with improved economic performance were postulated and defined. Three scenarios using combinations of space-based activities were analyzed: a spin stabilized satellite, a three axis satellite, and assembly at the Space Station and GEO servicing. Functional and technical requirements placed on the Space Station by the scenarios were detailed. Requirements on the satellite were also listed.

Price, K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of private sector roles in space resource development

An integrated engineering and financial modeling approach has been developed and used to evaluate the potential for private sector investment in space resource development, and to assess possible roles of the public sector in fostering private interest. This paper presents the modeling approach and its results for a transportation service using propellant extracted from lunar regolith.

space↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Bifacial Photovoltaic's Potential

The performance of bifacial PV systems depends greatly on the installed conditions. Previous simulations and results have shown very high bifacial gain improvement, but this may not be the case for all conditions, particularly for large-scale systems with self-shading, lower-cost PV modules (PERC) which might have lower bifaciality coefficient, and field deployments over natural ground cover. But not to worry! Financial models indicate that even with these lower performance conditions, and with bifacial gain of 4%-7%, bifacial modules can still provide improved LCOE.

bifacial↗
NASA NTRS1981

The Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model with an Application to a Geothermal Reservoir at Heber, California

A financial accounting model that incorporates physical and institutional uncertainties was developed for geothermal projects. Among the uncertainties it can handle are well depth, flow rate, fluid temperature, and permit and construction times. The outputs of the model are cumulative probability distributions of financial measures such as capital cost, levelized cost, and profit. These outputs are well suited for use in an investment decision incorporating risk. The model has the powerful feature that conditional probability distribution can be used to account for correlations among any of the input variables. The model has been applied to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California, for a 45-MW binary electric plant. Under the assumptions made, the reservoir appears to be economically viable.

Orren, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system such as a flight vehicle

A method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system having sensors for measuring state variables and providing corresponding output signals in response to one or more system input signals are provided. The method includes calculating estimated gains of a filter and selecting an appropriate linear model for processing the output signals based on the input signals. The step of calculating utilizes one or more models of the dynamic system to obtain estimated signals. The method further includes calculating output error residuals based on the output signals and the estimated signals. The method also includes detecting one or more hypothesized failures or performance degradations of a component or subsystem of the dynamic system based on the error residuals. The step of calculating the estimated values is performed optimally with respect to one or more of: noise, uncertainty of parameters of the models and un-modeled dynamics of the dynamic system which may be a flight vehicle or financial market or modeled financial system.

Miller, Robert H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Community Solar Project Models: An Introduction to Basic Financial and Administrative Relationships [Slides]

This resource is a collection of visual aids and descriptions to help explain the basic financial and administrative relationships underpinning common community solar project models. The graphics in this resource depict the flow of electricity from generation to consumption and the financial exchanges between the community solar project owner, subscribers, and distribution utility. Community solar models vary based on ownership (e.g., third party, utility), customer type (e.g., multifamily, single-household), and solar array location (e.g., on-site, off-site).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2007

Financial Comparisons across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry

This paper examines the accounting and stock price performance of two Canadian airlines, WestJet and Air Canada, over a five year period, taking into account the aftermath of the systemic shock to the airline industry produced by the September 11, 2001 (9-11), terrorist attacks and subsequent events such as the 2002 SARS outbreak, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the accompanying rise in jet fuel prices. Our study focuses on the viability of low-cost versus conventional-cost business models in Canada under the current business environment and the ability of airlines to withstand and effectively respond to catastrophic industry events. Furthermore, we link the effectiveness of the airlines responses to these events to specific elements of their respective business models. We test our hypothesis through a case study. We focus on WestJet as a typical low-cost airline and compare its accounting and stock performance to Air Canada, a legacy carrier and rival in several business sectors. We find WestJet to be much less affected by catastrophic industry events. By decomposing each airline s return volatility, we observe that WestJet s systematic and unsystematic risk increased only slightly during the industry's post-9-11 turmoil when compared to Air Canada. In addition, we find that both WestJet s accounting and stock performance have been highly superior to those of Air Canada. We argue that WestJet s business model provides the firm with significantly more financial and operational flexibility than its legacy rival, Air Canada. WestJet's lower operating costs, high consumer trust, product offering, corporate structure, workforce and work practices, as well as operational procedures are all factors that appear to contribute to its relative success.

Flouris, Triant↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗