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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regulators’ Financial Toolbox: Leveraging Software as a Service, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence in Electric Utilities

The rapid evolution of Software as a Service (SaaS), cloud computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the electric utility industry, reshaping operations, customer engagement, and financial models. This webinar introduced how utilities can deploy advanced software solutions and AI-driven analytics to improve grid efficiency, optimize asset management, and accurately forecast demand.

Bartlett, Phillip↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Bifacial Photovoltaic's Potential

The performance of bifacial PV systems depends greatly on the installed conditions. Previous simulations and results have shown very high bifacial gain improvement, but this may not be the case for all conditions, particularly for large-scale systems with self-shading, lower-cost PV modules (PERC) which might have lower bifaciality coefficient, and field deployments over natural ground cover. But not to worry! Financial models indicate that even with these lower performance conditions, and with bifacial gain of 4%-7%, bifacial modules can still provide improved LCOE.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2026

Community Solar Project Models: An Introduction to Basic Financial and Administrative Relationships [Slides]

This resource is a collection of visual aids and descriptions to help explain the basic financial and administrative relationships underpinning common community solar project models. The graphics in this resource depict the flow of electricity from generation to consumption and the financial exchanges between the community solar project owner, subscribers, and distribution utility. Community solar models vary based on ownership (e.g., third party, utility), customer type (e.g., multifamily, single-household), and solar array location (e.g., on-site, off-site).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling interconnections of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants, part 3: Spatiotemporal probabilistic physics-of-failure analysis and its connection to safety and financial performance

Here, this paper is a byproduct of a line of research by the authors to analyze interrelationships of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The result of this line of research is summarized in three parts: Part 1 covers a categorical review of relevant literature and the theoretical bases that support the methodological developments in Part 2. Part 2 introduces an Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework to quantify the interconnections of safety and financial performance with a focus on operation and maintenance (O&M) of NPPs. Part 2 has also demonstrated the applicability and values of the I-ERM methodology through an NPP case study. This paper is Part 3, where detailed development and implementation of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., probabilistic physics-of-failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with safety and financial performance is reported. In this article, the physical failure modeling for hardware components is advanced by incorporating finite element analysis (FEA) into PPoF analysis and coupling the FEA-based PPoF with the maintenance performance through a renewal process model. This article covers two scientific contributions: (i) first-of-its-kind incorporation of FEA into the PPoF model of thermal fatigue for NPP components; and (ii) advancing the interface between the PPoF analysis and the renewal process model in order to deal with spatiotemporal FEA outputs and to efficiently estimate the physical transition rates even when the PPoF outputs are dominated by success data. Through the incorporation of FEA, the resolution of the PPoF analysis is enhanced as spatiotemporal conditions such as stress and temperature can be considered explicitly instead of relying on simplified assumptions or analytical models with reduced spatiotemporal dimensions. To demonstrate an application of the FEA-based PPoF analysis and its coupling with maintenance through the renewal process model, a case study is conducted using excess letdown elbow piping in the chemical and volume control system of a Pressurized Water Reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Operations for Nuclear Business Operation Model Analysis and Industry Validation

The purpose of this report is to refine and analyze five work reduction opportunities first presented in INL/EXT-21-64134, Process for Significant Nuclear Work Function Innovation Based on Integrated Operations Concepts. This report seeks to further refine and analyze five work reduction opportunities first presented in the original report. Researchers selected five work reduction opportunities from the full Integrated Operations for Nuclear (ION) suite. A selected group of utilities then verified details and inputs from the original report. Categories for verification included capital cost, technology requirements, and savings. Researchers then modeled the data points and data ranges using probabilistic analysis which predicts the likelihood of positive or negative net present value. Research results show four out of the five work reduction opportunities have a greater than fifty percent chance of a positive net present value outcome when analyzed independently. When the five work reduction opportunities are grouped and analyzed together the model indicates a sixty percent chance that the outcome of all five taken together will be positive. The nuclear industry should interpret these results as encouraging. In line with the ION model, positive financial analysis supports the investment of capital dollars into existing nuclear power plants along the ION model. Implementation of the five work reduction opportunities in this report is likely to result in substantive long-term savings for the owners and operators of domestic nuclear power plants.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Powered By SAM [Slides]

The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capturing the full benefits of bifacial modules to approach an LCOE of 3c/kWh through a regional optimization of the electrical architecture (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report for the Cypress Creek Renewables project focused on bifacial plant performance. The project consisted of building a heavily instrumented Bifacial test sites with several cell technologies; instrumenting >1 MW scale commercial sites with both monofacial and bifacial arrays in order to understand real-world differences; and to engage with the performance modeling and financial stakeholder community to improve accuracy and increase investor confidence. The data from the test and commercial sites has been used to validate and improve the accuracy of both physics-based and reduced order modeling software. The heavily instrumented nature has been used to understand how light contributions from the sky and reflected from the ground impact different portions of the module and array while the data from the commercial sites has directly impacted how independent engineers model production from bifacial systems. The latter point has led to an increase in over 2% compared to earlier predictions. Even this modest increase has had significant downward pressure on project LCOE. As the data and results are both public, this refined modeling and empirical evidence for a higher bifacial gain than modeled, the benefits to the broader US solar community are assured.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 8. Modelisation financiere pour le solaire hors reseau

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89251 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

2024 Buildings Technology Baseline: Dataset Documentation

The Buildings Technology Baseline is a curated and regularly updated dataset of current and projected performance, retail, and installed price data for all major building energy technologies needed to enable cost/benefit analyses. Building technology analyses require an up-to-date understanding of installation costs and cost-effectiveness of key building energy efficiency technologies. The dataset was assembled by Guidehouse during fiscal year 2024. Data was gathered from the 2024 National Residential Efficiency Measures Database (NREMDB), the 2023 Energy Information Administration Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies ("EIA Building Data Report"), DOE Lighting Market Model, the 2023 RSMeans database, and the 2020 Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Technology Cost, Performance, and Lifetime Characteristics ("GEB Data Report"), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, various literature, as well as new data from online retailers, stakeholder interviews, and contractor databases in 2023 and 2024. The dataset has been reviewed by subject matter experts at NREL and DOE. The 2024 dataset release is intended to be a starting point for interested users to provide feedback. This database is not intended to provide specific cost estimates for a specific project. The cost estimates do not include any rebates or tax incentives that may be available for the measures. Rather, it is meant to help determine which measures may be more cost-effective. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) makes every effort to ensure accuracy of the data; however, NREL does not assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Affordable and Accessible Solar for All: Barriers, Solutions, and On-Site Adoption Potential

Solar energy technologies can be used as part of a suite of tools to reduce the energy burden of low-income customers, but to date, low- and moderate-income (LMI) customers have not adopted solar at the same rate as other income groups. This paper summarizes the barriers of LMI solar adoption related to finance and funding, community engagement, site suitability, policy and regulatory, and resilience and recovery and discusses existing and potential future solutions to address these barriers. In addition, we model future LMI on-site solar adoption, using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) dGen model. We model future scenarios assuming no changes in the current LMI solar policy and program environment, and we add two incentives to low-income households for adopting solar: a $\$$3,000 incentive and a full incentive (i.e., the full cost of a PV system). While we model a financial incentive, this dollar reduction in cost could also come from other efforts, for example, reductions in solar soft costs. We find that by 2050, 48-49% of LMI households adopt solar, resulting in $\$$69- $\$$101 billion in first year utility bill savings to these consumers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗