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DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics of virtual water networks: Role of national socio-economic indicators across the world

Intensified water usage due to rapid industrialization is often dictated by economic policies based on monetary growth rather than sustainable use of environmental resources. In addition, interdependence within economic sectors further interweaves water usage through product transactions, which further makes it difficult to quantify the dynamics of hydro-economic systems at regional, national and global scale. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of domestic virtual water networks (VWN) of 189 countries based on concept of information theory by quantifying network metrics that describes VWN flow capacity, robustness, efficiency and flexibility. These networks represent virtual water interconnected through economic sectors within a specified country built based on environmentally extended multi region input output (EE-MRIO) approach. We further estimated trends associated with network metrics, as well as coupling intensity between metrics with respect to socio-economic indicators, such as, population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI). It was observed that capacity and flexibility of VWNs are strongly and positively correlated indicating that a high capacity VWN can be more flexible. Our results also indicate that, in general a higher percentage of developing countries (i.e. both least developing and developing nations) have exhibited increasing trends in capacity, robustness, efficiency and flexibility of VWN compared to developed nations. It was revealed that the dynamics of VWNs are positively coupled with socio-economic growth for few countries, which indicates the sustainable behavior of VWN with socio-economic growth. Our results argue that the information theory-based metrics by embedding water footprints can holistically capture sustainability aspect of the VWN dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Practical Conceptual Design of Quieter Urban VTOL Aircraft

A toolchain and process for conceptual design of VTOL rotorcraft, employing low- and mid-fidelity tools is presented. The approach is capable of providing more quantitatively-credible trades between noise, size, and cost metrics than the methods commonly used for conceptual design. In addition to a general conceptual design tool, the approach employs comprehensive analysis for trim, blade motion, and airloads; these are then used by acoustic analysis software to develop source sound, propagate it, and calculate noise metrics. A key aspect of the approach is flexibility to assess varied aircraft types and different technologies and design features. Vehicles are sized using a representative Urban Air Mobility design mission. Demonstration cases are presented for a single main rotor helicopter, quadrotor, side-by-side helicopter, and lift+cruise aircraft. Noise metrics used for demonstration are the FAA/EASA certification Effective Perceived Noise Levels for takeoff, flyover, and approach. The concept aircraft in this study are shown to achieve reductions in noise relative the initial design points, with changes in mission performance and cost as a consequence. Many of the designs are predicted to be tens of EPNdB quieter in the certification metrics than existing helicopters.

Conceptual Design↗

DOE OSTI2021

Roadmap of Solid-State Lithium-Organic Batteries toward 500 Wh kg –1

Over the past few years, solid-state electrolytes (SSEs) have attracted tremendous attention due to their credible promise toward high-energy batteries. In parallel, organic battery electrode materials (OBEMs) are gaining momentum as strong candidates thanks to their lower environmental footprint, flexibility in molecular design and high energy metrics. Integration of the two constitutes a potential synergy to enable energy-dense solid-state batteries (SSBs) with high safety, low cost, and long-term sustainability. Here, we present the technological feasibility of combining OBEMs with SSEs along with the possible cell configurations that may result from this peculiar combination. We provide an overview of organic SSBs and discuss their main challenges. We analyze the performance-limiting factors and the critical cell design parameters governing cell-level specific energy and energy density. Lastly, we propose guidelines to achieve 500 Wh kg –1 cell-level specific energy with solid-state Li–organic batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of Thermal Protection Materials for Future Mars Entry, Descent and Landing Systems

Entry Systems will play a crucial role as NASA develops the technologies required for Human Mars Exploration. The Exploration Technology Development Program Office established the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) Technology Development Project to develop Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials for insertion into future Mars Entry Systems. An assessment of current entry system technologies identified significant opportunity to improve the current state of the art in thermal protection materials in order to enable landing of heavy mass (40 mT) payloads. To accomplish this goal, the EDL Project has outlined a framework to define, develop and model the thermal protection system material concepts required to allow for the human exploration of Mars via aerocapture followed by entry. Two primary classes of ablative materials are being developed: rigid and flexible. The rigid ablatives will be applied to the acreage of a 10x30 m rigid mid L/D Aeroshell to endure the dual pulse heating (peak approx.500 W/sq cm). Likewise, flexible ablative materials are being developed for 20-30 m diameter deployable aerodynamic decelerator entry systems that could endure dual pulse heating (peak aprrox.120 W/sq cm). A technology Roadmap is presented that will be used for facilitating the maturation of both the rigid and flexible ablative materials through application of decision metrics (requirements, key performance parameters, TRL definitions, and evaluation criteria) used to assess and advance the various candidate TPS material technologies.

Cassell, Alan M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Scheduling with partial orders and a causal model

In an ongoing project at Honeywell SRC, we are constructing a prototype scheduling system for a NASA domain using the 'Time Map Manager' (TMM). The TMM representations are flexible enough to permit the representation of precedence constraints, metric constraints between activities, and constraints relative to a variety of references (e.g., Mission Elapsed Time vs. Mission Day). The TMM also supports a simple form of causal reasoning (projection), dynamic database updates, and monitoring specified database properties as changes occur over time. The greatest apparent advantage to using the TMM is the flexibility added to the scheduling process: schedules are constructed by a process of 'iterative refinement,' in which scheduling decisions correspond to constraining an activity either with respect to another activity or with respect to one time line. The schedule becomes more detailed as activities and constraints are added. Undoing a scheduling decision means removing a constraint, not removing an activity from a specified place on the time line. For example, we can move an activity around on the time line by deleting constraints and adding new ones.

Boddy, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Assessments of Demand Flexibility from Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: Issues and Considerations

This SEE Action Network report explains basic concepts and fundamental considerations for assessing the actual demand flexibility performance of buildings participating in demand flexibility programs and responding to time-varying retail rates. Demand flexibility is the capability of distributed energy resources (DERs) to adjust a building’s load profile across different timescales. Assessments determine the timing, location, quantity, and quality of grid services provided. The results can be used for financial settlements and to improve performance of demand flexibility, support its consideration in resource potential studies and electricity system planning, and contribute to cost-effectiveness evaluations. While practitioners and regulators regularly find opportunities to improve performance assessments of demand-related services, to a large degree current best practices are sufficient for basic service offerings as demand flexibility is implemented today. However, advances in assessment practices will be required in a future with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) that provide continuous demand flexibility by integrating multiple DERs and flexibility modes (load shed, load shift, modulate, and generate). Example practices include using new baseline constructs—including whether baselines are even required for certain building flexibility modes or configurations, deploying more advanced metering and analytics, further developing cybersecurity standards, improving communication standards for increased interoperability, and establishing performance metrics and assessment procedures for load modulation as it is more fully defined and implemented. This report provides information on prioritizing and designing performance assessment elements for demand flexibility programs and time-varying retail rates, assessment protocols, and research and development needs. Additional research sponsored by DOE’s Building Technologies Office offers more detailed technical information on assessing performance of demand flexibility, including definition of performance metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

PowerAnalytics.jl: User-Centric Power Systems Analysis in Julia

The National Laboratory of the Rockies recently released version 1 of PowerAnalytics.jl, an analysis module for the outputs of its popular open-source electrical power systems modeling platform Sienna. It features an extensible framework - based on the flexible selecting of components, the execution of arbitrary metrics on them, and a familiar DataFrames-based output interface with embedded metadata - to process results in the Sienna style while keeping the interface as simple as possible for non-Julia experts. Here, I describe the package and where it fits into the Sienna ecosystem, how I harnessed user-centered design and Julia features to achieve beginner friendliness without sacrificing performance and expressibility, and what lessons might be drawn from the package's design and implementation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2015

Telescoping Solar Array Concept for Achieving High Packaging Efficiency

Lightweight, high-efficiency solar arrays are required for future deep space missions using high-power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP). Structural performance metrics for state-of-the art 30-50 kW flexible blanket arrays recently demonstrated in ground tests are approximately 40 kW/cu m packaging efficiency, 150 W/kg specific power, 0.1 Hz deployed stiffness, and 0.2 g deployed strength. Much larger arrays with up to a megawatt or more of power and improved packaging and specific power are of interest to mission planners for minimizing launch and life cycle costs of Mars exploration. A new concept referred to as the Compact Telescoping Array (CTA) with 60 kW/cu m packaging efficiency at 1 MW of power is described herein. Performance metrics as a function of array size and corresponding power level are derived analytically and validated by finite element analysis. Feasible CTA packaging and deployment approaches are also described. The CTA was developed, in part, to serve as a NASA reference solar array concept against which other proposed designs of 50-1000 kW arrays for future high-power SEP missions could be compared.

Mikulas, Martin↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2026

A flexible and differentiable coil proxy for stellarator equilibrium optimization

Balancing plasma performance and coil cost is a significant challenge when designing a stellarator power plant. Most current stellarator designs are produced through two-stage optimization: stage-1 for the equilibrium and stage-2 for a coil design that reproduces its magnetic configuration. Because few proxies connect both stages, two-stage optimization can produce plasmas that have high-quality physical properties but overly complex coils. In recent years, single-stage optimization has increasingly been used to optimize the plasma and coils simultaneously in order to improve the plasma–coil balance. However, all existing single-stage tools are specialized for filament coils, cannot model coil systems containing permanent magnets or dipole arrays, and continue to be challenged by numerical problems. The quasi-single-stage optimization finds a middle ground by integrating a coil optimization subproblem into stage-1 optimization. We present a flexible, differentiable coil complexity proxy based on the newly developed QUADCOIL coil optimization code. QUADCOIL is fast and can target realistic coil metrics and constraints that are unavailable to codes with comparable speed. We demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the QUADCOIL proxy by presenting two QSS optimization studies. The first study produces a permanent magnet solution for the MUSE stellarator with 34% fewer magnets than previous solutions. The second study produces a coil solution for the ARIES-CS stellarator with 30% reductions in both peak and root-mean-square force.

Fu, Lanke [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PP↗

NASA NTRS2010

Operational Dynamic Configuration Analysis

Sectors may combine or split within areas of specialization in response to changing traffic patterns. This method of managing capacity and controller workload could be made more flexible by dynamically modifying sector boundaries. Much work has been done on methods for dynamically creating new sector boundaries [1-5]. Many assessments of dynamic configuration methods assume the current day baseline configuration remains fixed [6-7]. A challenging question is how to select a dynamic configuration baseline to assess potential benefits of proposed dynamic configuration concepts. Bloem used operational sector reconfigurations as a baseline [8]. The main difficulty is that operational reconfiguration data is noisy. Reconfigurations often occur frequently to accommodate staff training or breaks, or to complete a more complicated reconfiguration through a rapid sequence of simpler reconfigurations. Gupta quantified a few aspects of airspace boundary changes from this data [9]. Most of these metrics are unique to sector combining operations and not applicable to more flexible dynamic configuration concepts. To better understand what sort of reconfigurations are acceptable or beneficial, more configuration change metrics should be developed and their distribution in current practice should be computed. This paper proposes a method to select a simple sequence of configurations among operational configurations to serve as a dynamic configuration baseline for future dynamic configuration concept assessments. New configuration change metrics are applied to the operational data to establish current day thresholds for these metrics. These thresholds are then corroborated, refined, or dismissed based on airspace practitioner feedback. The dynamic configuration baseline selection method uses a k-means clustering algorithm to select the sequence of configurations and trigger times from a given day of operational sector combination data. The clustering algorithm selects a simplified schedule containing k configurations based on stability score of the sector combinations among the raw operational configurations. In addition, the number of the selected configurations is determined based on balance between accuracy and assessment complexity.

Lai, Chok Fung↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Blending ToolKit: A simulation framework for evaluation of galaxy detection and deblending

We present an open source Python library for simulating overlapping (i.e., blended) images of galaxies and performing self-consistent comparisons of detection and deblending algorithms based on a suite of metrics. The package, named Blending Toolkit (BTK), serves as a modular, flexible, easy-to-install, and simple-to-use interface for exploring and analyzing systematic effects related to blended galaxies in cosmological surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). BTK has three main components: (1) a set of modules that perform fast image simulations of blended galaxies, using the open source image simulation package GalSim; (2) a module that standardizes the inputs and outputs of existing deblending algorithms; (3) a library of deblending metrics commonly defined in the galaxy deblending literature. In combination, these modules allow researchers to explore the impacts of galaxy blending in cosmological surveys. Additionally, BTK provides researchers who are developing a new deblending algorithm a framework to evaluate algorithm performance and make principled comparisons with existing deblenders. BTK includes a suite of tutorials and comprehensive documentation. The source code is publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/LSSTDESC/BlendingToolKit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficiency and Demand Flexibility in Large Office Buildings: The Potential for Cost Savings and CO 2 Reductions from Lighting and Cooling Measures

This report presents the estimated impact of lighting and cooling efficiency and demand flexibility measures in large office buildings in each state in the contiguous United States. It provides modeled results for three different metrics: bill savings, regional grid operational costs savings, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions. Lighting efficiency and demand flexibility are estimated to reduce load by up to 80 MWh/yr in a single large office building. These load reductions result in customer bill savings of up to $8,800/yr per building, with the highest savings in southern and midwestern states. Grid operating cost savings are estimated at up to $3,240/yr/building, with greatest benefit in southern and northeastern states. CO 2 emissions reduction potential is highest in the Dakotas, Nebraska, across the Midwest, in West Virginia, and in Mississippi (<48,200 kg/yr/building). Comparatively, cooling measures are found to have less load reduction potential (<28.5 MWh/yr/building), with the greatest potential in southern states including Texas, which ranks top of the list across several of the metrics studied. In numerous states, shifting cooling load to off-peak hours is found to increase costs and CO 2 emissions because precooling results in increased load during high-cost or high-CO 2 emissions periods. In general, focusing on cooling efficiency and load shedding has the potential for more savings. In all cases, the specific rate structure is a significant determinant in actual bill savings, which are up to $4,000/yr/building. To realize the full potential for bill savings through an energy measure, building operators must identify how the measure will change the building load pattern and the interaction of this load change with the applicable rate tariff. To realize CO 2 emissions reductions, industry and state coordination is needed to verify which fuel source is on the margin and then to create incentives for end users to reduce load during high-CO 2 emissions hours. Regular updates to data sets and analyses are critical. Regulators and policymakers are well positioned to facilitate the necessary coordination between the electric industry and building energy managers to develop appropriate price signals and incentives.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Price Taker: Optimizing Integrated Energy Systems Considering Market/Grid Interactions

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine two or more processes to increase the efficiency, flexibility of operation, and the overall reliability. However, analyzing IESs in volatile electricity markets is challenging, since the volatility in electricity prices makes the conventional levelized cost-type analysis less realistic. This work presents two approaches to address the challenge: price-taker and a surrogates-based approach for incorporating market interactions. The price-taker approach formulates a multiperiod optimization problem that takes the time-varying electricity prices into account, and solves the optimization problem to determine the optimal operational schedule that maximizes the chosen economic metric. This approach is successfully applied to investigate the performance of flexible power and hydrogen co-production systems. The market surrogates approach trains a machine learning model to predict the market behavior as a function of the characteristics of the IES. The trained surrogate model is used to optimize the design and operation of the given IES in an electricity market. This approach is demonstrated on a case study involving a nuclear power plant retrofitted with a low-temperature electrolysis unit to co-produce power and hydrogen.

beyond price taker↗

DOE OSTI2021

Operability and control in process intensification and modular design: Challenges and opportunities

Abstract In this article, the importance of considering operability and control criteria in the analysis and design of intensified and modular processes is discussed. We first analyze the impact on operability of key factors including: (i) degrees of freedom, (ii) process constraints, (iii) numbering up vs. scaling up, and (iv) dynamic/periodic operation. Comparative examples are presented to showcase the pros and cons in intensified/modular systems vs. their conventional counterparts from operability and control aspects. Then we look into metrics and tools to address these challenges such as: (i) flexibility analysis, (ii) operability‐based design, and (iii) advanced model‐based control. Considering different conceptual design stages as synthesis intensification, steady‐state design, and dynamic operational optimization, we highlight the need to incorporate different levels of operability considerations. Future research opportunities and perspectives are also identified, particularly emphasizing the importance of a holistic strategy for integrated design, operability, and control of intensified and modular process systems.

Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

DeepDiagnostics: A Software Package for Streamlined Posterior Evaluation

Automated prediction techniques like simulation-based inference (SBI) are important tasks for science experiments that produce large amounts of complex, raw data. However, their development remains in its early stages because the uncertainties of these techniques lack sufficient trustworthiness and interpretability. Packages for SBI provide a growing set of diagnostics; however, the software requirements are substantial, as they are tied to the inference technology itself, and the APIs lack adaptability. We introduce the DeepDiagnostics package for diagnosing posteriors from analytic likelihood-based methods and SBI methods, such as neural posterior estimation. DeepDiagnostics produces a comprehensive set of high-quality visualizations and metrics in a highly accessible, easy-to-use, and flexible package. We address all of these goals by providing a command-line inference tool and a Python API that is controlled through a configuration file. The package includes common diagnostics, such as parity plots, corner (covariance) plots, simulation-based calibration (SBC) diagnostics (including posterior coverage and rank histograms), Lemos et al. s PQMass and TARP, Masserano et al. s WALDO, Linhart et al. s LC2ST, as well as credible region diagnostics developed by our group.

Voetberg, Maggie [Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA's Space Launch System Program Update

Hardware and software for the world's most powerful launch vehicle for exploration is being welded, assembled, and tested today in high bays, clean rooms and test stands across the United States. NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) continued to make significant progress in 2014 with more planned for 2015, including firing tests of both main propulsion elements and the program Critical Design Review (CDR). Developed with the goals of safety, affordability, and sustainability, SLS will still deliver unmatched capability for human and robotic exploration. The initial Block 1 configuration will deliver more than 70 metric tons of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO). The evolved Block 2 design will deliver some 130 metric tons to LEO. Both designs offer enormous opportunity and flexibility for larger payloads, simplifying payload design as well as ground and on-orbit operations, shortening interplanetary transit times, and decreasing overall mission risk. Over the past year, every vehicle element has manufactured or tested hardware. An RS-25 liquid propellant engine was hotfire-tested at NASA's Stennis Space Center, Miss. for the first time since 2009 exercising and validating the new engine controller, the renovated A-1 test stand, and the test teams. Four RS-25s will power the SLS core stage. A qualification five-segment solid rocket motor incorporating several design, material, and process changes was scheduled to be test-fired in March at the prime contractor's facility in Utah. The booster also successfully completed its Critical Design Review (CDR) validating the planned design. All six major manufacturing tools for the core stage are in place at the Michoud Assembly Facility in Louisiana, and have been used to build numerous pieces of confidence, qualification, and even flight hardware, including barrel sections, domes and rings used to assemble the world's largest rocket stage. SLS Systems Engineering accomplished several key tasks including vehicle avionics software and hardware build and testing, scale model acoustic and base heating tests. Construction of the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS) began. Advanced development provided a look into the future of SLS. Shell buckling knockdown factor testing refined decades-old design margins that added thousands of pounds to rocket payloads. Adaptive manufacturing and structured light scanning development promised to cut the cost and time associated with manufacturing and testing. This paper will provide an overview of the progress made over the past year and provide a glimpse of 2015 milestones and beyond on the way to the first launch in 2018.

May, Todd↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA's Space Launch System Program Update

May, Todd↗