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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2000

Performance of the GEOS-3/Terra Data Assimilation System in the Northern Stratospheric Winter 1999/2000

As part of NASA's support for the Terra satellite, which became operational in January 2000, the Data Assimilation Office introduced a new version of the GEOS data assimilation system (DAS) in November 1999. This system, GEOS-3/Terra, differs from its predecessor in several ways, notably through an increase in horizontal resolution (from 2-by-2.5 degrees to 1-by-1 degree), a slightly lower upper boundary (0.1 instead of 0.01hPa) with fewer levels (48 as opposed to 70), and substantial changes to the tropospheric physics package. This paper will address the performance of the GEOS-3/Terra DAS in the stratosphere. it focusses on the analyses (produced four times daily) and the five-day forecasts (produced twice daily). These were important for the meteorological support of the SAGE-3 Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment, based in Kiruna, Northern Sweden, in the winter of 1999/2000. It is shown that the analyses of basic meteorological fields (temperature, geopotential height, and horizontal wind) are in good agreement with those from other centers. The analyses captured the cold polar vortex which persisted through most of the winter. It is shown that forecasts (up to five days) tend to have a warm bias, which is important for the prediction of polar stratospheric clouds, which are triggered by temperatures of 195K (or lower). The importance of accurate upper tropospheric forecasts in predicting the stratospheric flow is highlighted in the context of the evolution of the shape of the stratospheric polar vortex. A prominent blocking high in the Atlantic region in January was an important factor determining the shape of the distorted lower stratospheric vortex; the predictive skill of these features was strongly coupled in the GEOS-3/Terra system.

Pawson, S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Information Requirements for Supervisory Air Traffic Controllers in Support of a Wake Vortex Departure System

Closely Space Parallel Runway (CSPR) configurations are capacity limited for departures due to the requirement to apply wake vortex separation standards from traffic departing on the adjacent parallel runway. To mitigate the effects of this constraint, a concept focusing on wind dependent departure operations has been developed, known as the Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD). This concept takes advantage of the fact that crosswinds of sufficient velocity blow wakes generated by aircraft departing from the downwind runway away from the upwind runway. Consequently, under certain conditions, wake separations on the upwind runway would not be required based on wakes generated by aircraft on the downwind runway, as is currently the case. It follows that information requirements, and sources for this information, would need to be determined for airport traffic control tower (ATCT) supervisory personnel who would be charged with decisions regarding use of the procedure. To determine the information requirements, data were collected from ATCT supervisors and controller-in-charge qualified individuals at Lambert-St. Louis International Airport (STL) and George Bush Houston Intercontinental Airport (IAH). STL and IAH were chosen as data collection sites based on the implementation of a WTMD prototype system, operating in shadow mode, at these locations. The 17 total subjects (STL: 5, IAH: 12) represented a broad-base of air traffic experience. Results indicated that the following information was required to support the conduct of WTMD operations: current and forecast weather information, current and forecast traffic demand and traffic flow restrictions, and WTMD System status information and alerting. Subjects further indicated that the requisite information is currently available in the tower cab with the exception of the WTMD status and alerting. Subjects were given a demonstration of a display supporting the prototype systems and unanimously stated that the WTMD status information they felt important was represented. Overwhelmingly, subjects felt that approving, monitoring and terminating the WTMD procedure could be integrated into their supervisory workload.

Lohr, Gary W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes

Pfeil, Diana Michalek↗
NASA NTRS2018

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 3 (ATD-3) Dynamic Weather Routes Domestic En Route Concept of Operations Synopsis Version 1.0

NASA conducted a survey in 2015 of stakeholders in industry, flight operators, and others to collect data on the most pressing air traffic management (ATM) issues impacting en route operations. Weather related delays and interruptions were identified as the most significant and costly problem impacting en route operations in today's system. Additionally, future traffic demands will place greater demands on the FAA's air traffic control system, necessitate a more efficient and integrated traffic management system and provide controller tools to leverage human productivity. Consequently, NASA is assembling a suite of integrated ground and aircraft-based technologies and decision-making aids under the Airspace Technology Demonstrations 3 (ATD-3) project to continuously search for more efficient weather-avoidance routes and to rapidly respond to weather changes and associated traffic management initiatives. These route efficiency enhancements are targeted at en route airspace and will enable continued use of en route and arrival metering in the presence of weather. NASA's Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) concept represents a subset of those technologies and focuses primarily on the cruise phase of flight. It leverages existing air traffic weather, airspace, and traffic data, as well as improvements in navigation, surveillance, communication and digital network technologies, and builds upon existing ATM automation to address the shortcomings associated with strategic traffic flow management initiatives and weather forecasting uncertainties. The potential benefits in the form of time, fuel, and cost savings are significant. This concept of operations synopsis provides a detailed description of DWR, its potential benefits and notional implementation paths.

DWR↗
NASA NTRS2018

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 3 (ATD-3) Multi-Flight Common Route (MFCR) Concept of Operations Version 1.0

NASA's Multi Flight Common Route (MFCR) automation represents one element of those technologies focusing primarily on delay recovery in the en route phase of flight. Delay recovery is an attenuation of flight-time delay, accomplished by periodically revising weather-avoidance routing as the convective weather system evolves. MFCR is intended for use by Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) in Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs, or Centers) and traffic management specialists (TMSs) in the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC). MFCR leverages existing weather, airspace, and traffic data, as well as improvements in navigation, surveillance, communication, and digital information technologies, to build on existing ATM automation and address some of the shortcomings associated with strategic traffic flow management initiatives and weather forecasting uncertainties. These capabilities provide significant potential benefits in the form of time, fuel, and cost savings. The concept of operations described in this document describes MFCR functionality as delivered by NASA to the FAA in December 2017, including a list of potential enhancements that may be realized when the system is fielded.

conops↗
NASA NTRS1984

Analogs in the wintertime 500 mb height field

Lorenz (1969) has considered the possibility that an atmospheric circulation pattern might recur, taking into account the definition of a pair of analogous flows or 'analogs'. The present investigation is concerned with a search of time series of Northern Hemisphere wintertime geopotential heights for possible analogs. Attention is given to data and analysis procedure, analog quality, and error growth rates. The obtained results imply that the found analogs are not a useful tool for forecasting the evolution of the midlatitude flow on time scales of several days. It is pointed out, however, that the negative results should not be extended to other applications of analog forecasting.

Gutzler, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.

Wang, Yao X.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

Smith, George F.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Integrated and spectral energy flows of the GLAS GCM

Methods to analyze the generation, transport, and dissipation of energy to study geophysical fluid flows are discussed. Energetics analyses are pursued in several directions: (1) the longitudinal and time dependence on the energy flow to the stratosphere was examined as a function of geographical sector; (2) strong and weak energy flows were correlated by medium range forecasts; (3) the one dimensional spectral results (Fourier services around latitude circles) were extended to spherical harmonics over a global domain; (4) the validity of vertical velocities derived from mass convergence was examined for their effect on the conversion of eddy available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy.

Tennebaum, J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

STS-121: Discovery L-1 Countdown Status Briefing

Bruce Buckingham, NASA Public Affairs, introduces Jeff Spaulding, NASA Test Director; Debbie Hahn, STS-121 Payload Manager; and Kathy Winters, Shuttle Weather Officer. Spaulding gives his opening statement on this one day prior to the launching of the Space Shuttle Discovery. He discusses the following topics: 1) Launch of the Space Shuttle Discovery; 2) Weather; 3) Load over of onboard reactants; 4) Hold time for liquid hydrogen; 5) Stowage of Mid-deck completion; 6) Check-out of onboard and ground network systems; 7) Launch windows; 8) Mission duration; 9) Extravehicular (EVA) plans; 10) Space Shuttle landing day; and 11) Scrub turn-around plans. Hahn presents and discusses a short video of the STS-121 payload flow. Kathy Winters gives her weather forecast for launch. She then presents a slide presentation on the following weather conditions for the Space Shuttle Discovery: 1) STS-121 Tanking Forecast; 2) Launch Forecast; 3) SRB Recovery; 4) CONUS Launch; 5) TAL Launch; 6) 24 Hour Delay; 7) CONUS 24 Hour; 8) TAL 24 Hour; 9) 48 Hour Launch; 10) CONUS 48 Hour; and 11) TAL 48 Hour. The briefing ends with a question and answer period from the media.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Flow-Dependent Error Correlations and Tropospheric Chemistry on Assimilated Ozone

The presentation compares different versions of a global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office. The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) total and partial ozone column retrievals are the sole data assimilated in all of the experiments presented. We study the impact of changing the forecast error covariance model from a version assuming static correlations with a one that captures a short-term Lagrangian evolution of those correlations. This is further combined with a study of the impact of neglecting the tropospheric ozone production, loss and dry deposition rates, which are obtained from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. We compare statistical characteristics of the assimilated data and the results of validation against independent observations, obtained from WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres. On the other hand, the main sensitivity to tropospheric chemistry is in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. The best agreement between the assimilated ozone and the in-situ sonde data is in the experiment using both flow-dependent error covariances and tropospheric chemistry.

Wargan, K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.

Lambert, Winnie↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simulations and Visualizations of Hurricane Sandy (2012) as Revealed by the NASA CAMVis

Storm Sandy first appeared as a tropical storm in the southern Caribbean Sea on Oct. 22, 2012, moved northeastward, turned northwestward, and made landfall near Brigantine, New Jersey in late October. Sandy devastated surrounding areas, caused an estimated damage of $50 billion, and became the second costliest tropical cyclone (TC) in U.S. History surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina (2005). To save lives and mitigate economic damage, a central question to be addressed is to what extent the lead time of severe storm prediction such as Sandy can be extended (e.g., Emanuel 2012; Kerr 2012). In this study, we present 10 numerical experiments initialized at 00 and 1200 UTC Oct. 22-26, 2012, with the NASA coupled advanced global modeling and visualization systems (CAMVis). All of the predictions realistically capture Sandy's movement with the northwestward turn prior to its landfall. However, three experiments (initialized at 0000 UTC Oct. 22 and 24 and 1200 UTC Oct. 22) produce larger errors. Among the 10 experiments, the control run initialized at 0000 UTC Oct. 23 produces a remarkable 7-day forecast. To illustrate the impact of environmental flows on the predictability of Sandy, we produce and discuss four-dimensional (4-D) visualizations with the control run. 4-D visualizations clearly demonstrate the following multiscale processes that led to the sinuous track of Sandy: the initial steering impact of an upper-level trough (appearing over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico), the blocking impact of systems to the northeast of Sandy, and the binary interaction with a mid-latitude, upper-level trough that appeared at 130degrees west longitude on Oct. 23, moved to the East Coast and intensified during the period of Oct. 29-30 prior to Sandy's landfall.

visualizations↗
NASA NTRS2011

Traffic Flow Management Wrap-Up

Traffic Flow Management involves the scheduling and routing of air traffic subject to airport and airspace capacity constraints, and the efficient use of available airspace. Significant challenges in this area include: (1) weather integration and forecasting, (2) accounting for user preferences in the Traffic Flow Management decision making process, and (3) understanding and mitigating the environmental impacts of air traffic on the environment. To address these challenges, researchers in the Traffic Flow Management area are developing modeling, simulation and optimization techniques to route and schedule air traffic flights and flows while accommodating user preferences, accounting for system uncertainties and considering the environmental impacts of aviation. This presentation will highlight some of the major challenges facing researchers in this domain, while also showcasing recent innovations designed to address these challenges.

Grabbe, Shon↗
NASA NTRS2007

Flow Regime Based Climatologies of Lightning Probabilities for Spaceports and Airports

Objective: provide forecasters with a "first guess" climatological lightning probability tool (1) Focus on Space Shuttle landings and NWS T AFs (2) Four circles around sites: 5-, 10-, 20- and 30 n mi (4) Three time intervals: hourly, every 3 hr and every 6 hr It is based on: (1) NLDN gridded data (2) Flow regime (3) Warm season months of May-Sep for years 1989-2004 Gridded data and available code yields squares, not circles Over 850 spread sheets converted into manageable user-friendly web-based GUI

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2002

Stratospheric Analysis and Forecasting in the Northern Winter of 1999/2000: The NASA DAO's GEOS-3 System

An evaluation is presented of the performance in the northern winter 1999/2000 of the GEOS-3 troposphere-stratosphere data assimilation system (DAS). The impacts of the two main input data types are assessed: upper-air soundings (sondes) provide wind and temperature information and satellite-based (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounders: TOVS) give estimates of the thermal structure. It is shown that in the low stratosphere (300-70hPa) the analyses are generally slightly warmer than the sonde data, but colder than the TOVS data; this relationship reverses between 70 and 10 hPa. There are geographical biases, related to the spatial and temporal coverage of the observation types and to the statistical weights assigned to them in the DAS. Forecasts show a tendency to reduce zonal asymmetries in the atmospheric flow and to suppress stratospheric temperature minima. In the DAS, the analysis increments compensate for this, but it leads to important biases in the multi-day forecasts. The analysis increments are as large as the diabatic forcing in the lower polar stratosphere, indicating a substantial model bias. The results provide important insights into the roles of different data types and the circulation model in producing accurate analyses for studies of polar chemistry and physical processes.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2009

Life of a Six-Hour Hurricane

Hurricane Claudette developed from a weak vortex in 6 h as deep convection shifted from downshear into the vortex center, despite ambient vertical wind shear exceeding 10 m/s. Six hours later it weakened to a tropical storm, and 12 h after the hurricane stage a circulation center could not be found at 850 hPa by aircraft reconnaissance. At hurricane strength the vortex contained classic structure seen in intensifying hurricanes, with the exception of 7-12 C dewpoint depressions in the lower troposphere upshear of the center. These extended from the 100-km radius to immediately adjacent to the eyewall, where equivalent potential temperature gradients reached 6 K/km. The dry air was not present prior to intensification, suggesting that it was associated with vertical shear-induced subsidence upshear of the developing storm. It is argued that weakening of the vortex was driven by cooling associated with the mixing of dry air into the core, and subsequent evaporation and cold downdrafts. Evidence suggests that this mixing might have been enhanced by eyewall instabilities after the period of rapid deepening. The existence of a fragile, small, but genuinely hurricane-strength vortex at the surface for 6 h presents difficult problems for forecasters. Such a "temporary hurricane" in strongly sheared flow might require a different warning protocol than longer-lasting hurricane vortices in weaker shear.

Shelton, Kay L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Russell, Carl↗