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Basic research in solar physics

This grant, dating back more than 20 years has supported a variety of investigations of the chromospheres and coronae of the Sun and related cool stars by the Principal Investigator, his postdocs and graduate students, and colleagues at other institutions. This work involved studies of radiative transfer and spectral line formation theory, and the application of these techniques to the analysis of spectra obtained from space and ground-based observatories in the optical, ultraviolet, x-ray and radio portions of the spectrum. Space observations have included the analysis of spectra from OSO-7, Skylab, SMM, and the HRTS rocket experiments. Recent work has concentrated on the interaction of magnetic fields, plasma and radiation in the outer atmospheres of the Sun and other magnetically active stars with different fundamental parameters. Our study of phenomena common to the Sun and stars, the 'solar-stellar connection', can elucidate the fundamental physics, because spatially-resolved observations of the Sun provide us with the 'groundtruth,' while interpretation of stellar data permit us to isolate those parameters critical to stellar activity. Recently, we have studied the differences in physical properties between solar regions of high magnetic flux density and the surrounding plasma. High-resolution CN and CO spectroheliograms have been used to model the thermal inhomogeneities driven by unstable CO cooling, and we have analyzed spatially resolved UV spectra from HRTS to model the thermal structure and energy balance of small-scale structures. The study of nonlinear relations between atmospheric radiative losses and the photospheric magnetic flux density has been continued. We have also proposed a new model for the decay of plages by random walk diffusion of magnetic flux. Our analysis of phenomena common to the Sun and stars included the application of available spectroscopic diagnostics, establishing evidence that the atmospheres of the least active stars are heated at a 'basal' rate that is also found in the centers of solar supergranules, and using the Doppler-imaging technique to measure the position, size, and brightness of stellar active regions. We are computing multi-component models for solar and stellar atmospheres, and models for coronal loops and for the transition-region down flows. The study of solar and stellar flares permits us to assess the role of turbulent energy transport, to pinpoint the mechanism behind Type I radio bursts, to determine whether plasma radiation or cyclotron maser is responsible for microwave flares on M dwarfs, and to extend our knowledge of the basic physics pertinent to cyclotron-maser processes operating on the Sun.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth's energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account

Robert, J. Brent↗

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

An investigation of the energy balance of solar active regions using the ACRIM irradiance data

The detection of a significant correlation between the solar irradiance, corrected for flux deficit due to sunspots, and both the 205 nm flux and a photometric facular index were examined. A detailed analysis supports facular emission as the more likely source of correlation with the corrected radiance, rather then the error in sunspot correction. A computer program which simulates two dimensional convection in a compressible, stratified medium was investigated. Subroutines to calculate ionization and other thermodynamic variables were also completed.

Petro, L. D.↗

Imaging Science Requirements for a Uranus Flagship Mission

Introduction: Our presentation will summarize the requirements for UV/Visible/Near-IR remote-sensing imaging science instruments (including mapping spectrometers) envisioned for the Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) mission recommended by the recent planetary decadal survey. The Uranus system offers many targets for imaging investigations. Imaging science investigations are crucial to answering fundamental questions about various physical processes that shape the Uranian system and drive its evolution. Each science objective addressed through imaging has requirements for observation and illumination geometries as well as coverage and resolution in the spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions. By combining the requirements for the diverse science targets in the Uranian system, we present a set of overarching imaging science requirements for UOP. Atmospheric Science: The study of Uranus’ atmosphere is crucial in understanding the planet's energy balance and interior heat flux. Imaging observations map how the atmosphere scatters incident solar radiation. Imaging is key to characterizing planetary-scale energy/material transport though global atmospheric dynamics and local meteorology. Hyperspectral mapping combined with radiative transfer analysis reveals the vertical distribution of clouds and hazes. Chronicling temporal variabilities of atmospheric features is key to understanding the various processes that operate within the dynamic Uranian atmosphere. A comprehensive understanding of Uranus' atmosphere is essential in deciphering the planet's origins and evolution as well as providing insight into the broader field of planetary and exoplanetary science. Magnetospheric Interactions: Imaging science is critical to understand the elusive Uranian aurorae. Mapping the aurorae and their temporal dynamics will reveal the interaction of Uranus’ complex magnetosphere with the solar wind. The apparent decades-long cooling of Uranus’ upper atmosphere is thought to be due to changes in energy input from the overlying magnetosphere, and so mapping and quantifying the auroral evidence for this energy flux is particularly relevant for upper atmospheric science In addition, Uranus’ large moons may generate auroral footprints, which can be used to constrain the planet’s unusual magnetic field structure. Satellite Interiors: Imaging science can address the potential habitability of the larger moons of Uranus by measuring their shapes and rotational states (including librations), which combined with gravity data are crucial to understanding their internal density structure. Satellite Origins: Origin markers such as organics and volatiles may be preserved on the satellite surfaces, which may be sensed by UV/IR mapping. Imaging combined with the moons’ densities may reveal whether the moons formed in Uranus’ circumplanetary disk, rings, or from ejecta of a giant impact on Uranus. Satellite Geology: Imaging investigations, including stereo imaging to obtain topography, will enable constraining each satellite’s geologic history by investigating the distributions and morphologies of impact craters, tectonic and potential cryovolcanic features, and regolith and mass wasting deposits. These records will help unravel the past complex history of orbital resonances that occurred between Uranian satellites, which may have driven geologic activity. Analyses of these features will also point to resurfacing styles and modification processes important for understanding each moon’s thermal evolution, and any present-day geological activity, including potential subsurface deep oceans or possible current activity. Additionally, hyperspectral imaging will enable mapping the surface composition and identifying the potential presence of material that may point to a subsurface ocean, such as ammonia-bearing species. Rings and Small Moons: Imaging observations elucidate the physical processes that contribute to the complex ring-moon system’s inferred unstable state. Imaging surveys will seek smaller moons and other debris that could provide evidence of past collisions, while precise astrometric data of moons will determine the current dynamical state of the system. Many of Uranus' rings are exceptionally narrow, and images of the rings covering a broad range of longitudes, and high-resolution images of features within the rings will reveal how these rings are confined and maintained, as well as illustrating the rings' internal structure and dynamics. Images of the rings and moons obtained at a variety of wavelengths and lighting conditions are also needed to quantify the composition and the size distribution of the small satellites and ring particles.

K M Sayanagi↗

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland ice sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland ice sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meterological data sets. Data analysis showed the following results: (1)cloud classification based on longwave sky radiation revealed that overcast sky occurred for 25% of the time in winter, and for 15% in spring and summer respectively (winter and summer both show the same occurrence of clear sky of approximately 26%); (2) comparison of aerodynamic profile method with eddy correlation method to derive sensible and latent heat flux showed good agreement in the diurnal cycle and the turbulent fluxes were underestimated with the aerodynamic method by 10 - 30% as compared to the in situ eddy flux method; (3) the katabatic wind shows a distinct diurnal cycle with a maximum in the morning (7-9 h solar time) and a minimum in the later afternoon (18 h solar time); (4) snow grain size was modeled with a surface energy balance model (SNTHERM) and compared with in situ measurements. Sharp decreases in the modeled snow grain size, caused by accumulation events such as precipitation and deposition, could be verified with observational data; (4) radiative transfer modeling of firn supports our beliefs that the observed trends in 18 and 19 GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures are attributable to accumulation rate changes (modeling also indicates the above relationship is detectable because of the presence of depth hoar; (5) snow melt can be detected by a distinct signal in the passive microwave cross-polarized gradient ratio (19h-37v)/(19h+37v) and has been used for wet/dry snow classification; (6) top of the atmosphere (TOA) broadband albedos were derived from AVHRR visible and near infrared reflectances for the entire ice sheet from May 1990 - June 1991, and the highest albedo values are found along the southeast coast of the ice sheet which is consistent with the summer peak of precipitation due to onshore flow loaded with high water vapor content (TOA albedo values dropped to around 40% along the south-western coast during July and August due to bare ice surfaces); and (7) the net all-wave radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere is negative over the entire ice sheet except for the summer months - June-July-August (in June, the net radiation balance is slightly positive over the dry snow areas--15 W/m2).

Steffen, K.↗

Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a key component of the Earth Observing System (EOS) program. The CERES instrument provides radiometric measurements of the Earth's atmosphere from three broadband channels. The CERES missions are a follow-on to the successful Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) mission. The first CERES instrument (PFM) was launched on November 27, 1997, as part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Two CERES instruments (FM1 and FM2) were launched into polar orbit on board the EOS flagship Terra on December 18, 1999, and two additional CERES instruments (FM3 and FM4) were launched on board EOS Aqua on May 4,2002. [Mission Objectives] The scientific justification for the CERES measurements can be summarized by three assertions: (1) changes in the radiative energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system can cause long-term climate changes (e.g., carbon dioxide inducing global warming); (2) besides the systematic diurnal and seasonal cycles of incoming solar energy, changes in cloud properties (amount, height, optical thickness) cause the largest changes of the Earth's radiative energy balance; and (3) cloud physics is one of the weakest components of current climate models used to predict potential global climate change. CERES has four main objectives: 1) For climate change analysis, provide a continuation of the ERBE record of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), analyzed using the same algorithms that produced the ERBE data. 2) Double the accuracy of estimates of radiative fluxes at TOA and the Earth's surface. 3) Provide the first long-term global estimates of the radiative fluxes within the Earth's atmosphere. 4) Provide cloud property estimates that are consistent with the radiative fluxes from surface to TOA. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

Estimating Spatially-distributed Surface Fluxes in a Semi-arid Great Basin Desert Using Landsat TM Thermal Data

The research described in this chapter demonstrates a method for using Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate instantaneous regional-scale energy fluxes over an arid valley in eastern Nevada, U.S.A. Here point-based models of surface energy and water balance fluxes were applied to individual pixels of a Landsat Thematic Mapper scene over the study area. Although the method used to estimate these instantaneous fluxes requires certain assumptions be made about the spatial distribution of several physical parameters, the results from this analysis and modeling suggest that it is possible to scale from point measurements of environmental state variables (i.e., net radiation flux, surface heat flux, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux) to regional estimates of energy exchange to obtain an understanding of the spatial relationship between these fluxes and landscape variables.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Synergy of Satellite Radiation, Precipitation, and Other Meteorological Variable Observations for Global Mean Sea Surface Turbulent Heat Flux Estimation

Sea surface turbulent heat flux is one of the key components in global freshwater and energy balances and plays an important role in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and general circulation. This turbulent heat flux is dominantly decided by sea surface latent heat release with some contribution from sensible heat exchange. The flux and its anomaly could significantly affect ocean heat storage and ocean circulation. They are part of and have great impacts on climate variability. Though the turbulent heat flux is extremely important for the climate and weather systems, only very limited ship and buoy observations of the flux are available over open oceans. There are no global, operational, direct measurements of this crucial meteorological variable. Global estimates are, basically, indirectly calculated from bulk turbulent flux parameterization with a combination of satellite column water vapor, sea surface water temperature, and wind speed observations. Critical parameters such as sea surface air temperature and humidity are estimated from empirical relations of theses variables with the water vapor and sea surface water temperature, respectively. Lacking accurate knowledge on surface air temperature and humidity, uncertainties in the parameterization and potential changes in the non-linear turbulent processes with long-term climate variations could cause large errors in estimated long-term turbulent fluxes from the indirect method as shown in current global sea surface turbulent flux datasets. This study uses synergized data of satellite global radiation, precipitation, and other meteorological variable observations to estimate sea surface turbulent heat fluxes. The radiation observations are made by the satellite Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors, while the global precipitation data is from NASA’s satellite Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Other data includes satellite sea surface water temperature and wind speed observations. These datasets are obtained from a wide range of space sensors from passive to active instruments and from visible and near infrared to thermal infrared and microwave spectral sounders. One significant feature of these datasets is that they have multi-decades long climate records. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and its anomaly represents the net heat energy input to the climate system, and the oceanic precipitation and ocean-land moisture transport can be used to quantify sea surface latent heat release. Based on the synergized datasets and the principle of global water and energy balances, global mean turbulent heat fluxes are estimated. The turbulent heat anomalies for the first two decades of the 21st century are, then, obtained mainly from global CERES radiation and GPCP precipitation anomalies, along with CERES derived ocean-land heat transports. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties in the estimated turbulent flux anomalies may be reduced considerably. The results suggest a strong needs in synchronized and synergized observations of atmospheric radiation, precipitation, and oceanic meteorological variables for long-term climate studies.

Bing Lin↗

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Preconditioning for the Navier-Stokes equations with finite-rate chemistry

The extension of Van Leer's preconditioning procedure to generalized finite-rate chemistry is discussed. Application to viscous flow is begun with the proper preconditioning matrix for the one-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations. Eigenvalue stiffness is resolved and convergence-rate acceleration is demonstrated over the entire Mach-number range from nearly stagnant flow to hypersonic. Specific benefits are realized at the low and transonic flow speeds typical of complete propulsion-system simulations. The extended preconditioning matrix necessarily accounts for both thermal and chemical nonequilibrium. Numerical analysis reveals the possible theoretical improvements from using a preconditioner for all Mach number regimes. Numerical results confirm the expectations from the numerical analysis. Representative test cases include flows with previously troublesome embedded high-condition-number areas. Van Leer, Lee, and Roe recently developed an optimal, analytic preconditioning technique to reduce eigenvalue stiffness over the full Mach-number range. By multiplying the flux-balance residual with the preconditioning matrix, the acoustic wave speeds are scaled so that all waves propagate at the same rate, an essential property to eliminate inherent eigenvalue stiffness. This session discusses a synthesis of the thermochemical nonequilibrium flux-splitting developed by Grossman and Cinnella and the characteristic wave preconditioning of Van Leer into a powerful tool for implicitly solving two and three-dimensional flows with generalized finite-rate chemistry. For finite-rate chemistry, the state vector of unknowns is variable in length. Therefore, the preconditioning matrix extended to generalized finite-rate chemistry must accommodate a flexible system of moving waves. Fortunately, no new kind of wave appears in the system. The only existing waves are entropy and vorticity waves, which move with the fluid, and acoustic waves, which propagate in Mach number dependent directions. The nonequilibrium vibrational energies and species densities in the unknown state vector act strictly as convective waves. The essential concept for extending the preconditioning to generalized chemistry models is determining the differential variables which symmetrize the flux Jacobians. The extension is then straight-forward. This algorithm research effort will be released in a future version of the production level computational code coined the General Aerodynamic Simulation Program (GASP), developed by Walters, Slack, and McGrory.

Godfrey, Andrew G.↗

Analysis of OSO data to determine the structure and energy balance of the solar chromosphere

A detailed reexamination of the temperature-density structure of the photosphere and low chromosphere shows that the middle and upper chromosphere, which directly emits most of the OSO spectrum, is sensitive to conditions in this underlying region of the atmosphere. A model of this region is based on a unified compilation of all recently published broadband flux and central intensity observations of the solar spectrum from 500 microns in the far infrared to 1220 A in the far ultraviolet. This extensive compilation includes the OSO 4 and 6 observations in the wavelength range 1400 to 1220 A. A model is presented of the quiet solar atmosphere in the height range between the temperature minimum and the upper part of the chromosphere-corona transition region. This model is based on statistical equilibrium calculations of H, He 1, He 2, Si 1, C 1, and other ions.

Avrett, E. H.↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmosphere Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: How Well Can We Quantify Hydrologic and Radiative Responses?

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system-- changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). Our analysis makes use a number of data bases, principally those derived from space-based measurements, to explore systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data set reveals errors in the surface longwave emission due to use of biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows subsequent use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative beating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 Wm-2 per K of SST change. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. Corresponding radiative fluxes seem systematically smaller resulting in a enhanced (suppressed) export of energy from the tropical ocean regions during warm (cold) SST events. Discussion of likely errors due to sampling and measurement strategies are discussed along with their impacts on our conclusions.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗

Dynamic analysis of a magnetic bearing system with flux control

Using measured values of two-dimensional forces in a magnetic actuator, equations of motion for an active magnetic bearing are presented. The presence of geometric coupling between coordinate directions causes the equations of motion to be nonlinear. Two methods are used to examine the unbalance response of the system: simulation by direct integration in time; and determination of approximate steady state solutions by harmonic balance. For relatively large values of the derivative control coefficient, the system behaves in an essentially linear manner, but for lower values of this parameter, or for higher values of the coupling coefficient, the response shows a split of amplitudes in the two principal directions. This bifurcation is sensitive to initial conditions. The harmonic balance solution shows that the separation of amplitudes actually corresponds to a change in stability of multiple coexisting solutions.

Knight, Josiah↗

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 4: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system, version 1

This report describes the analysis component of the Goddard Earth Observing System, Data Assimilation System, Version 1 (GEOS-1 DAS). The general features of the data assimilation system are outlined, followed by a thorough description of the statistical interpolation algorithm, including specification of error covariances and quality control of observations. We conclude with a discussion of the current status of development of the GEOS data assimilation system. The main components of GEOS-1 DAS are an atmospheric general circulation model and an Optimal Interpolation algorithm. The system is cycled using the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) technique in which analysis increments are introduced as time independent forcing terms in a forecast model integration. The system is capable of producing dynamically balanced states without the explicit use of initialization, as well as a time-continuous representation of non- observables such as precipitation and radiational fluxes. This version of the data assimilation system was used in the five-year reanalysis project completed in April 1994 by Goddard's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Data from this reanalysis are available from the Goddard Distributed Active Center (DAAC), which is part of NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). For information on how to obtain these data sets, contact the Goddard DAAC at (301) 286-3209, EMAIL daac@gsfc.nasa.gov.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Critical Velocities in Open Capillary Flow

This paper describes the proposed research program on open capillary flow and the preliminary work performed theoretically and in drop tower experiments. The work focuses on the fundamental physical understanding of the flow through capillary bound geometries, where the circumference of the cross section of the flow path contains free surfaces. Examples for such a flow configuration are capillary vanes in surface tension tanks, flow along edges and corners and flow through liquid bridges. The geometries may be classified by their cross section areas, wetted circumferences and the radii of curvature of the free surfaces. In the streaming float zone the flow path is bound by a free surface only. The ribbon vane is a model for vane types used in surface tension tanks, where a structure in proximity to the tank wall forms a capillary gap. A groove is used in heat pipes for the transportation of the condensed working fluid to the heat source and a wedge may occur in a spaceborne experiment where fluid has to be transported by the means of surface tension. The research objectives are the determination of the maximum volume flux, the observation of the free surfaces and the liquid flow inside the flow path as well as the evaluation of the limiting capillary wave speed. The restriction of the maximum volume flux is due to convective forces (flow velocity exceeding the capillary wave speed) and/or viscous forces, i.e. the viscous head loss along the flow path must be compensated by the capillary pressure due to the curved free surface. Exceeding the maximum volume flux leads to the choking of the flow path, thus the free surface collapses and.gas ingestion occurs at the outlet. The means are ground-based experimental work with plateau tanks and in a drop tower, a sounding rocket flight, and theoretical analysis with integral balances as well as full three dimensional CFD solutions for flow with free surfaces.

Dreyer, Michael↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33912-DND

The agricultural, renewable energy management, and science communities need global surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes on a near real-time basis for uses such as building energy performance monitoring and seasonal crop yield modeling. The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) FLASHFlux (Fast Longwave and SHortwave radiative Flux) data products address this need by enhancing the speed of CERES processing using simplified calibration, averaging techniques and fast radiation parameterizations to produce global fluxes within a week of satellite observations. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1degree x 1degree gridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations. The CERES FLASHFlux Version4A includes an update to process MODIS Collection 6.1 in an improved cloud retrieval algorithm, and an update to the CERES Edition 4 angular distribution models. We inter-compared FLASHFlux Version4A, FLASHFlux Version3C, and CERES EBAF (Energy Balanced and Filled) Top-of-Atmosphere fluxes to evaluate these improvements. We also compare both SSF overpass and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement. FLASHFlux TISA and CERES EBAF are used in the analysis of TOA anomalies for the annual State of Climate report. This also poster highlights the methodology use to merge the two data products by correcting the bias in FLASHFlux TISA and inter-calibrate to CERES EBAF.

Parnchai K Sawaengphokhai↗