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At least 55 records · Page 3

Assessing the dimensionality of food-security measures

Here, we explore the dimensionality of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s household food security survey module among households with children. Using a novel methodological approach to measuring food security, we find that there is multidimensionality in the module for households with children that is associated with the overall household, adult, and child dimensions of food security. Additional analyses suggest official estimates of food security among households with children are robust to this multidimensionality. However, we also find that accounting for the multidimensionality of food security among these households provides new insights into the correlates of food security at the household, adult, and child levels of measurement.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The state of food systems worldwide in the countdown to 2030

This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a baseline assessment of the world’s food systems. We show that every country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework as new indicators or better data emerge.

Schneider, Kate R.↗

Small-Scale Irrigation: Improving Food Security under Changing Climate and Water Resource Conditions in Ethiopia

We develop a new systems modeling tool that integrates knowledge from hydrology, agriculture, and economics to understand the effect of small-scale irrigation on food security and groundwater sustainability in Ethiopia. Irrigation is an effective tool to mitigate climate impacts and improve agricultural yields. Small-scale irrigation, such as decentralized groundwater irrigation, is well suited for developing countries where smallholder farming communities are widely dispersed and can only afford small infrastructure investment. We study the underlying interdependencies between food and water systems in Ethiopia, where small-holder agriculture is the foundation of the nation’s economy and climate variability has led to great challenges to its food security. Our coupled market and crop model with groundwater module captures the interdependencies of climate, water availability (including irrigation), crop yield, farmland allocation, crop production, transport and consumption based on a system approach across multiple spatial scales. We study the implication of small-scale irrigation to Ethiopia’s food security and water resource conditions as a “what-if” question by comparing an irrigation scenario to the calibrated baseline in 2015, a year of significant drought and crop failure over a large portion of Ethiopia. Our model offers fresh insights into geographic disparities in outcomes that are driven by baseline climate variability, soil fertility, and market conditions. In general, we find that small-scale irrigation can potentially improve food security through increases in food consumption, but it requires policy support to direct the increases of production to domestic consumption while maintaining a sustainable groundwater condition. By using Ethiopia as an example, we show the strength of our model to study how water infrastructure resources support critical functions and service in water and food systems.

Zhang, Ying↗

Synergistic Interactions During Co-Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Food Waste and Biomass Model Compounds for Increased Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of lignocellulosic biomass is plagued with low biocrude yields owing to the tendency of highly reactive oxygenated intermediates to condense to form biochars. By contrast, the high protein content in food waste is comprised of substantial nitrogen species, which are known to interact strongly with oxygenates through Maillard, amide, and peptide bond formation reactions. Co-feeding food waste and lignocellulose opens new reaction pathways for biocrude formation but is currently poorly understood. This work evaluated the molecular level interactions between food waste and lignocellulose model compounds and the corresponding effect on product yields and quality. Food waste–cellulose and food waste–xylan feedstock blends achieved maximum biocrude carbon yield improvements of 12.2% and 10.1%, respectively, relative to a simple linear model that interpolates between the yields of the pure feedstocks. Increases in biocrude yield were balanced by corresponding decreases in char yield, indicating synergistic interactions between the feeds during HTL. Biocrude volatility analysis revealed that increased biocrude yield preferentially benefitted the jet fuel fraction, which comprised up to 22.6% of the total carbon yield for food waste–cellulose blends. Biocrude and char were analyzed using GC–MS and FT-IR spectroscopy to investigate the source of synergistic trends and provide greater mechanistic understanding. Key cofeeding effects included the promotion of retro-aldol condensation reactions and trans-esterification of fatty acids, sequestering carbon in the biocrude phase via the inhibition of char formation while increasing biocrude volatility toward jet fuel-range compounds. These results indicate the potential for judicious selection of HTL cofeeds to increase both biocrude yield and selectivity to desired fuel precursors, including sustainable aviation fuel.

Maillard reaction↗

Precursor Analysis Report: JBS Foods Ransomware Attack 2021

The JBS Foods 2021 Ransomware Attack Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the JBS ransomware cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. In late May 2021, one of the world’s largest meat producers, JBS Foods, announced they had fallen victim to a worldwide ransomware attack, later found to be REvil ransomware. In the United States alone, JBS Foods accounts for nearly 25% of beef and roughly 20% of pork production. Adversaries initially launched a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack on the company’s Information Technology (IT) networks in Australia, but the attack impacted operations in Brazil, Canada, and the United States, as well. The attack caused plant operations in all four countries to shut down for at least one day. All nine of the U.S. meatpacking plants temporarily shut down because of the attack. The adversaries initially demanded a $\$$22 million ransom for the company’s data, but later negotiated the ransom down to $\$$11 million even after JBS Foods restored most of their systems. JBS Foods eventually paid the $\$$11 Million for reassurance from the adversaries that none of their customers’ data would be compromised in the future. Despite its short duration, the attack still caused large stocks of meat to spoil. The incident also underscored how adversaries can simultaneously compromise and move laterally through global subsidiaries of an organization. Researchers and analysts identified 22 unique techniques (in a sequence of 21 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 361 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Sixteen of the identified techniques used during the JBS Foods cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 308 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 163 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 75 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Editorial: Achieving Water-Energy-Food Nexus Sustainability: A Science and Data Need or a Need for Integrated Public Policy?

The benefits of addressing the water, energy, and food sectors in an integrated manner is gaining significant recognition. An integrated approach can provide improved resource use efficiencies, more coherent environmental policies, and an overall strategy for achieving sustainability in the three sectors, as outlined in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2 (Food), 6 (Water), and 7 (Energy). Societies are concerned with ensuring food security, avoiding wars over water, and creating opportunity by ensuring access to energy. To be effective, however, this approach needs to be adopted at all levels of societies including government, private and civil society and reinforced by management and planning methods. This special issue identifies different approaches that are either being conceptualized or tested to support the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus approach. The articles contribute to answering the question, “Is achieving Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus Sustainability a science and data need or an integrated public policy need?” In either case, both natural and social sciences will need to combine to support science issues or integrated policy issues. The papers explore the ways in which science, data, and policy development could help to define integrative principles and policies for the three sectors. This approach could expand beyond the water, energy, and food sectors to include health, environment, trade, commerce, and international assistance thereby providing broad support to the SDGs. Moreover, this issue demonstrates that data combined with new technologies (tools and models) can support better decision-making when adopted by governments and the sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Spinning the Facts against Genetically Engineered Foods?

A signaling game is developed in order to derive the equilibrium conditions under which special interest groups (SIGs) involved in the controversial debate over genetically engineered (GE) foods have the incentive to truthfully reveal their information or spin facts regarding the health impact of GE foods. Consumers can choose to inspect information provided by SIGs at a cost. The risk of spinning facts is much higher for pro-GE groups, because if it turns out that a certain GE food is unsafe, the penalty will be severe. However, anti-GE groups can still spin facts at low risk even if consumers choose to inspect. This helps explain why some pro-GE groups, particularly the biotech industry, tend to remain silent. Revealing information regarding the safety of GE foods could be counterproductive given pre-existing public skepticism. Consumers may not make “better” decisions with more information provided because more information increases their inspection costs. When it is costlier for consumers to inspect, it is more likely that anti-GE groups will continue to spin facts about the negative health impact of GE foods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating energy consumption and GHG emissions in the U.S. food supply chain for net-zero

This work provides a database of the U.S. food system’s energy consumption and GHG emissions at the national and state levels by food supply chain (FSC) stage, fuel type, and food commodity. We estimate that the U.S. FSC consumed a total 4660 TBTU (4900 PJ) of site energy, 7130 TBTU (7500 PJ) of primary energy, and generated 970 MMT of GHG emissions in 2016. Among all the stages, on-farm production is the largest energy consumer (31% primary energy) and GHG emissions contributor (70%), largely due to raising animals. Optimizing distribution can reduce the stage’s energy consumption and GHG emissions and increase products’ shelf-life. Reducing food loss and waste is another good option, as it decreases the amount of food necessary to grow, thus impacting the overall FSC. The database can help stakeholders identify stage- and region-specific strategies and measures to curtail the environmental footprint of the U.S. food system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Traceable and Scalable Food Balance Sheets from Agricultural Commodity Supply and Utilization Accounts (2010–2022)

Abstract The Food Balance Sheets (FBS), compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), serve as a cornerstone dataset for studies on agricultural development, food security, and dietary health, providing a broad overview of global and regional food systems. However, its limited transparency and scalability hinder its application in empirical analysis and multisector dynamic modeling. Here, we present a traceable Food Balance Sheets (T-FBS) dataset, developed from detailed Supply Utilization Accounts (SUA) using a novel Primary Commodity equivalent (PCe) aggregation approach. This framework enables the aggregation of commodity flows along supply chains while ensuring consistency and balance across multiple dimensions. The T-FBS dataset includes 57 PCe commodities across 195 regions for the period 2010–2022, consolidated from over 500 SUA products. While T-FBS closely aligns with FAO-FBS at aggregate levels for dietary energy and macronutrients, it identifies key uncertainties in other elements (e.g., feed, trade, stocks). By enhancing methodological transparency, traceability, and scalability, T-FBS strengthens the robustness of food system studies and fosters future research and collaboration within the open-source community.

agriculture↗

Exploring the working range of automated standard dilution analysis of nutrient elements in foods by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry

Inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) is an important tool for measuring nutrient elements in food. ICP-OES methods typically determine analytical concentrations using external standard calibration but can be susceptible to matrix effects. The method of standard additions does not suffer from matrix effects but is time consuming and labor intensive. Automated standard dilution analysis (SDA) allows for online matrix matched calibration without preparing individual standard additions for each sample matrix. This approach may solve both time and matrix issues and has been described in the literature as an attractive alternative to standard additions. The working range of the method for nutrient elements, however, is an understudied feature of SDA that may be a potential drawback to routine analysis of foods. We evaluated automated SDA performance through the analysis of 10 reference materials and four fortified (i.e., spiked) foods spanning the AOAC food triangle. We evaluated the working range, accuracy, and precision for analyses of nutrient elements in foods. Accepted accuracy (80–120% recovery) was achieved for 10 nutrient elements, Ca, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, S, and Zn, when the analytical solution concentration to standard concentration ratio was less than 10. This equates to a working range for each element spanning at least two orders of magnitude. Removing outliers, Z scores (n = 95) ranged from –1.8 to 0.88, and the average recovery (n = 85) from fortification experiments was 97 ± 12% (2σ). Therefore, automated SDA applied to ICP-OES may be used for nutrient elemental analyses in samples with difficult matrices such as foods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Core Model Proposal #377: Breaking out food processing sector in GCAM

Purpose: This Core Model Proposal (CMP) expands the representation of detailed industry (CMP-326) in GCAM by separating the food processing sector from the aggregate “other industry sector”. Historical energy use is calibrated to IEA data for food processing, with some infilling for regions with limited IEA data. Food processing is linked to the GCAM food demand module, setting the energy demand for food processing in future periods based on food demand. While the direct price feedback is currently muted and the linkage is represented at the aggregated regional level, this CMP establishes the groundwork for a more detailed connection between the agrifood sectors and energy sectors in future work.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Current state and future projections of drying processes in the US food and pulp and paper sectors: Energy, economic, and environmental assessment

The pulp and paper (P/P) and food sectors are the third- and fifth-largest industrial energy consumers in the United States, with total on-site energy consumption of 2,039 TBtu and 1,144 TBtu, respectively. Thermal drying processes for moisture removal, which are energy-intensive, play a critical role in both industries. This study is the first to evaluate state- and national-level US drying energy demand for these sectors from 2020 to 2050. To complete this evaluation, we developed a thermodynamic modeling framework integrated with economic and environmental models to compute product-specific drying energy intensity and estimate the sector-specific costs and emissions profiles associated with drying operations. The model-predicted energy intensity was validated against the literature. Using current and projected annual production volumes in these sectors, we estimated total drying energy use. Results indicate that drying accounts for 22 % of total energy consumption in the P/P sector and 10 % in the food sector. The estimated annual energy cost (2020) to operate thermal dryers is $\$$919 M in the P/P sector and $\$$417 M in the food sector. Additionally, drying contributes to 25 % of total CO 2 e emissions in the P/P sector (including biogenic) and 15 % of emissions in the food sector. Regional performance shows that the Southern US is the leading energy consumer for P/P drying, whereas the Midwest leads in food drying. This study presents both potential solutions to enhance drying efficiency and barriers to implementation. Energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon fuels, and electrification are discussed as key pathways for reducing costs and optimizing industrial drying processes.

3E analysis↗

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transforming Agricultural Productivity with AI-Driven Forecasting: Innovations in Food Security and Supply Chain Optimization

Global food security is under significant threat from climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity. This review examines how advanced AI-driven forecasting models, including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time-series forecasting models like SARIMA/ARIMA, are transforming regional agricultural practices and food supply chains. Through the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and blockchain technologies, these models facilitate the real-time monitoring of crop growth, resource allocation, and market dynamics, enhancing decision making and sustainability. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including systematic literature analysis and regional case studies. Highlights include AI-driven yield forecasting in European hydroponic systems and resource optimization in southeast Asian aquaponics, showcasing localized efficiency gains. Furthermore, AI applications in food processing, such as plasma, ozone and Pulsed Electric Field (PEF) treatments, are shown to improve food preservation and reduce spoilage. Key challenges—such as data quality, model scalability, and prediction accuracy—are discussed, particularly in the context of data-poor environments, limiting broader model applicability. The paper concludes by outlining future directions, emphasizing context-specific AI implementations, the need for public–private collaboration, and policy interventions to enhance scalability and adoption in food security contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Pivotal trial characteristics and types of endpoints used to support Food and Drug Administration rare disease drug approvals between 2013 and 2022

Background/aims Rare disease drug development faces unique challenges, such as genotypic and phenotypic heterogeneity within small patient populations and a lack of established outcome measures for conditions without previously successful drug development programs. These challenges complicate the process of selecting the appropriate trial endpoints and conducting clinical trials in rare diseases. In this descriptive study, we examined novel drug approvals for non-oncologic rare diseases by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research over the past decade and characterized key regulatory and trial design elements with a focus on the primary efficacy endpoint utilized as the basis of approval. Methods Using the Food and Drug Administration’s Data Analysis Search Host database, we identified novel new drug applications and biologics license applications with orphan drug designation that were approved between 2013 and 2022 for non-oncologic indications. From Food and Drug Administration review documents and other external databases, we examined characteristics of pivotal trials for the included drugs, such as therapeutic area, trial design, and type of primary efficacy endpoints. Differences in trial design elements associated with primary efficacy endpoint type were assessed such as randomization and blinding. Then, we summarized the primary efficacy endpoint types utilized in pivotal trials by therapeutic area, approval pathway, and whether the disease etiology is well defined. Results One hundred and seven drugs that met our inclusion criteria were approved between 2013 and 2022. Assessment of the 107 drug development programs identified 150 pivotal trials that were subsequently analyzed. The pivotal trials were mostly randomized (80%) and blinded (69.3%). Biomarkers (41.1%) and clinical outcomes (42.1%) were commonly utilized as primary efficacy endpoints. Analysis of the use of clinical trial design elements across trials that utilized biomarkers, clinical outcomes, or composite endpoints did not reveal statistically significant differences. The choice of primary efficacy endpoint varied by the drug’s therapeutic area, approval pathway, and whether the indicated disease etiology was well defined. For example, biomarkers were commonly selected as primary efficacy endpoints in hematology drug approvals (70.6%), whereas clinical outcomes were commonly selected in neurology drug approvals (69.6%). Further, if the disease etiology was well defined, biomarkers were more commonly used as primary efficacy endpoints in pivotal trials (44.7%) than if the disease etiology was not well defined (27.3%). Discussion In the past 10 years, numerous novel drugs have been approved to treat non-oncologic rare diseases in various therapeutic areas. To demonstrate their efficacy for regulatory approval, biomarkers and clinical outcomes were commonly utilized as primary efficacy endpoints. Biomarkers were not only frequently used as surrogate efficacy endpoints in accelerated approvals, but also in traditionally approved rare disease drugs. The choice of primary efficacy endpoints varied by therapeutic area, approval pathway, and understanding of disease etiology.

Hong, Kyungwan [Rare Diseases Team, Office of New ↗

Regulatory utility of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling for assessing food impact in bioequivalence studies: A workshop summary report

This workshop report summarizes the presentations and panel discussion related to the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling approaches for food effect assessment, collected from Session 2 of Day 2 of the workshop titled “Regulatory Utility of Mechanistic Modeling to Support Alternative Bioequivalence Approaches.” The US Food and Drug Administration in collaboration with the Center for Research on Complex Generics organized this workshop where this particular session titled “Oral PBPK for Evaluating the Impact of Food on BE” presented successful cases of PBPK modeling approaches for food effect assessment. Recently, PBPK modeling has started to gain popularity among academia, industries, and regulatory agencies for its potential utility during bioavailability (BA) and/or bioequivalence (BE) studies of new and generic drug products to assess the impact of food on BA/BE. Considering the promises of PBPK modeling in generic drug development, the aim of this workshop session was to facilitate knowledge sharing among academia, industries, and regulatory agencies to understand the knowledge gap and guide the path forward. This report collects and summarizes the information presented and discussed during this session to disseminate the information into a broader audience for further advancement in this area.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Extrapolating Contaminant Effects from Individuals to Populations: A Case Study on Nanoparticle Toxicity to Daphnia Fed Environmentally Relevant Food Levels

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is charged with assessing the likelihood a chemical will have adverse environmental or ecological effects. When assessing the risk of a potential contaminant to biological organisms, ecologists are most concerned with the sustainability of populations of organisms, rather than protecting every individual. However, ERA most commonly relies on data on the effect of a potential contaminant on individuals because these experiments are more feasible than costly population-level exposures. In this work, we address the challenge of extrapolating these individual-level results to predict population-level effects. Previous per-capita population growth rate estimates calculated from individual-level exposures of Daphnia pulicaria to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) at different food rations predict a critical daily food requirement for daphnid populations exposed to 200 μg/L AgNPs to avoid extinction. To test this, we exposed daphnid populations to the same AgNP concentration at three different food inputs, with the lowest ration close to the extinction threshold predicted from data on individuals. The two populations with the higher food inputs persisted, and the population with the lowest food input went extinct after 50 days but did persist through two generations. Further, we demonstrate that we can extrapolate between these levels of biological organization by parameterizing an individual-level biomass model with data on individuals’ response to AgNPs and using these parameters to predict the outcome for control and AgNP-exposed populations. Key to successful extrapolation is careful modeling of temporal changes in resource density, driven by both the experimental protocols and feedback from the consumer. The implication for ecotoxicology is that estimates of extinction thresholds based on studies of individuals may be reliable predictors of population outcomes, but only with careful treatment of resource dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The need for an integrated multi-OMICs approach in microbiome science in the food system

Microbiome science as an interdisciplinary research field has evolved rapidly over the past two decades, becoming a popular topic not only in the scientific community and among the general public, but also in the food industry due to the growing demand for microbiome-based technologies that provide added-value solutions. Microbiome research has expanded in the context of food systems, strongly driven by methodological advances in different -omics fields that leverage our understanding of microbial diversity and function. However, managing and integrating different complex -omics layers are still challenging. Within the Coordinated Support Action MicrobiomeSupport (https://www.microbiomesupport.eu/), a project supported by the European Commission, the workshop “Metagenomics, Metaproteomics and Metabolomics: the need for data integration in microbiome research” gathered 70 participants from different microbiome research fields relevant to food systems, to discuss challenges in microbiome research and to promote a switch from microbiome-based descriptive studies to functional studies, elucidating the biology and interactive roles of microbiomes in food systems. A combination of technologies is proposed. This will reduce the biases resulting from each individual technology and result in a more comprehensive view of the biological system as a whole. Although combinations of different datasets are still rare, advanced bioinformatics tools and artificial intelligence approaches can contribute to understanding, prediction, and management of the microbiome, thereby providing the basis for the improvement of food quality and safety.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗