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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Connections Between the TTL and Sea Surface Temperatures: Interannual Variability and Trends

Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Tropical Tropopause Layer↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lake sediment heatwaves under global warming

Lake sediment heatwaves, driven by rising global temperatures, pose emerging threats to freshwater ecosystems by altering sediment thermal regimes and intensifying sediment biogeochemical processes. Here we present a global-scale assessment of lake sediment heatwaves, examining their historical patterns and projecting future trends under various climate scenarios in 41,499 representative lakes worldwide. Using daily simulated lake sediment temperatures from 1981 to 2010 and future (2071-2100) projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585), we investigate lake sediment heatwave characteristics, including their duration, intensity, frequency, and seasonal timing, worldwide. Our results show that lake sediment heatwaves are generally more persistent and frequent than lake surface heatwaves, with sediment heatwaves in pelagic regions experiencing a significant lag relative to surface conditions. Under future climate scenarios, sediment heatwaves are projected to intensify, with their duration and frequency increasing substantially, particularly under SSP585. These shifts could exacerbate the production of greenhouse gases like methane and increase sediment respiration rates in lakes. This study highlights the need to account for sediment heatwaves in freshwater ecosystem management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate future impacts.

Limnology↗
NASA NTRS1992

Toward full life cycle control: Adding maintenance measurement to the SEL

Organization-wide measurement of software products and processes is needed to establish full life cycle control over software products. The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL)--a joint venture between NASA GSFC, the University of Maryland, and Computer Sciences Corporation--started measurement of software development more than 15 years ago. Recently, the measurement of maintenance was added to the scope of the SEL. In this article, the maintenance measurement program is presented as an addition to the already existing and well-established SEL development measurement program and evaluated in terms of its immediate benefits and long-term improvement potential. Immediate benefits of this program for the SEL include an increased understanding of the maintenance domain, the differences and commonalities between development and maintenance, and the cause-effect relationships between development and maintenance. Initial results from a sample maintenance study are presented to substantiate these benefits. The long-term potential of this program includes the use of maintenance baselines to better plan and manage future projects and to improve development and maintenance practices for future projects wherever warranted.

Rombach, H. Dieter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2010

Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Stratospheric Ozone Over the 21st Century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an ensemble of opportunity of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for 10 ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21 st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations 15 return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Charlton-Perez, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Additive Manufacturing and 3D Printing in NASA: An Overview of Current Projects and Future Initiatives for Space Exploration

NASA, including each Mission Directorate, is investing in, experimenting with, and/or utilizing AM across a broad spectrum of applications and projects; Centers have created and are continuing to create partnerships with industry, other Government Agencies, other Centers, and Universities; In-house additive manufacturing capability enables rapid iteration of the entire design, development and testing process, increasing innovation and reducing risk and cost to projects; For deep space exploration, AM offers significant reduction to logistics costs and risk by providing ability to create on demand; There are challenges: Overwhelming message from recent JANNAF AM for Propulsion Applications TIM was "certification."; NASA will continue to work with our partners to address this and other challenges to advance the state of the art in AM and incorporate these capabilities into an array of applications from aerospace to science missions to deep space exploration.

Clinton, R. G., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗
NASA NTRS2020

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)↗
NASA NTRS1993

The maturing of the quality improvement paradigm in the SEL

The Software Engineering Laboratory uses a paradigm for improving the software process and product, called the quality improvement paradigm. This paradigm has evolved over the past 18 years, along with our software development processes and product. Since 1976, when we first began the SEL, we have learned a great deal about improving the software process and product, making a great many mistakes along the way. Quality improvement paradigm, as it is currently defined, can be broken up into six steps: characterize the current project and its environment with respect to the appropriate models and metrics; set the quantifiable goals for successful project performance and improvement; choose the appropriate process model and supporting methods and tools for this project; execute the processes, construct the products, and collect, validate, and analyze the data to provide real-time feedback for corrective action; analyze the data to evaluate the current practices, determine problems, record findings, and make recommendations for future project improvements; and package the experience gained in the form of updated and refined models and other forms of structured knowledge gained from this and prior projects and save it in an experience base to be reused on future projects.

Basili, Victor R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Insurance and indemnification implications of future space projects

NASA options regarding insurance and indemnification policies as they relate to NASA customers and contractors are described. The foundation for the discussion is the way in which NASA is planning to return the Space Shuttle fleet to safe flight as well as current U.S. policy concerning future uses of the Shuttle fleet. Issues discussed include: the nature of the Shuttle manifest; the policy regarding property damage or destruction; insurance against liability to third parties; the reduction of the scope of the risk to be insured; NASA as the insurer; a sharing arrangement between the user and NASA; and contractors and subcontractors involved in Shuttle operations.

O'Brien, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗
NASA NTRS2020

Natural Hazard Risk Assessments at the Global Scale

Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.

Philip J. Ward↗
DOE OSTI2025

CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydropower Projection over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents a suite of hydropower projections for the conterminous United States (CONUS), derived from multiple downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) approaches, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). The resulting downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data are then used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), enabling simulations of projected future hydrologic responses across the CONUS. Simulated total runoff is subsequently employed to drive two hydropower models (WMP, now implemented as mosartwmpy-power, and WRES) to evaluate how climate change may affect future hydropower production for both federal and non-federal hydropower fleets. This dataset was developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, see Broman et al. (2024), Thurber et al. (2024), Kao et al. (2022), and Zhou et al. (2023).

Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0

Abstract. The spatial heterogeneity related to complex topography in California demands high-resolution (< 5 km) modeling, but global convection-permitting climate models are computationally too expensive to run multi-decadal simulations. We developed a 3.25 km California climate modeling framework by leveraging regional mesh refinement (CARRM) using the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s global Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) version 0. Four 5-year time periods (2015–2020, 2029–2034, 2044–2049, and 2094–2099) were simulated by nudging CARRM outside California to 1° coupled simulation of E3SMv1 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)5-8.5 future scenario. The 3.25 km grid spacing adds considerable value to the prediction of the California climate changes, including more realistic high temperatures in the Central Valley and much improved spatial distributions of precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and coastal stratocumulus. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CARRM simulation predicts widespread warming of 6–10 °C over most of California, a 38 % increase in statewide average 30 d winter–spring precipitation, a near-complete loss of the alpine snowpack, and a sharp reduction in shortwave cloud radiative forcing associated with marine stratocumulus by the end of the 21st century. We note a climatological wet precipitation bias for the CARRM and discuss possible reasons. We conclude that SCREAM RRM is a technically feasible and scientifically valid tool for climate simulations in regions of interest, providing an excellent bridge to global convection-permitting simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Projections of Future Sea Level Contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Challenges Beyond Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling

As Earth's climate warms, rising sea levels are becoming a great concern. Providing substantiated and well-informed guidance on the amount and rate of future sea level rise is important, but remains challenging. Observations of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets-Earth's largest freshwater reservoirs-reveal their ongoing, rapid, and complex changes in response to an evolving climate. The improved understanding of ice sheet behavior resulting from observations is driving the development of ice sheet models, and is allowing better simulation of past, present, and future ice sheet evolution. However, insight into future changes requires a better understanding of how ice sheets interact with other components of the Earth system and associated feedbacks. As climate models start to include dynamical ice sheet components, our understanding of such interactions and the feedback mechanisms will advance. These new developments in ice sheet modeling and their implementation in climate models are timely, as observations indicate an accelerating contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise.

ice sheet model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trends and 2025 Insights on the Rise of Electric Vehicles in the USA

Plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the transportation energy landscape, providing a practical alternative to petroleum fuels for a growing number of applications. EV sales grew 55x in the past decade (2014-2024) and 6x since 2020, driven by technological progress enabled by policies to reduce transportation emissions as well as industrial plans motivated by strategic value of EVs for global competitiveness, jobs and geopolitics. In 2024, 22% of passenger cars sold globally were EVs and opportunities for EVs beyond on-road applications are growing, including solutions to electrify off-road vehicles, maritime and aviation. This Review updates and expands our 2020 assessment of the scientific literature and describes the current status and future projections of EV markets, charging infrastructures, vehicle-grid integration and supply chains in the USA. EV is the lowest-emission motorized on-road transportation option, with life-cycle emissions decreasing as electricity emissions continue to decrease. Charging infrastructure grew in line with EV adoption but providing ubiquitous reliable and convenient charging remains a challenge. EVs are reducing electricity costs in several US markets and coordinated EV charging can improve grid resilience and reduce electricity costs for all consumers. The current trajectory of technology improvement and industrial investments points to continued acceleration of EVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1982

A systematic approach to the application of Automation, Robotics, and Machine Intelligence Systems /ARAMIS/ to future space projects

The potential applications of Automation, Robotics, and Machine Intelligence Systems (ARAMIS) to space projects are investigated, through a systematic method. In this method selected space projects are broken down into space project tasks, and 69 of these tasks are selected for study. Candidate ARAMIS options are defined for each task. The relative merits of these options are evaluated according to seven indices of performance. Logical sequences of ARAMIS development are also defined. Based on this data, promising applications of ARAMIS are

Smith, D. B. S.↗