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NASA is currently formulating its plans for follow-on related work that builds upon knowledge gained in ATD related activities and collaborative engagements with the aviation community. The NASA Air Traffic Management - eXploration (ATM-X) project has the desire to continue this engagement with the aviation industry and capture industry inputs to continue development of their plans and is supporting this outreach with the ATD-2 team.
Low-cloud feedbacks are thought to be the greatest source of uncertainty in climate projections on the centennial scale. Past research has mainly focused on the global low-cloud feedback as a whole whereas only a few studies have examined separated contributions from the two main low cloud categories: stratocumulus (Sc) and shallow cumulus (Cu). Here we aim to evaluate and constrain Sc and Cu cloud feedbacks in models using satellite observations to ultimately reduce their contribution to the spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We utilize the Cumulus and Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD) recently developed by Cesana et al. (2019), which discriminates Sc from Cu clouds. This algorithm – based on cloud morphological characteristics at the orbital level – outperforms previous cloud-type classifications stemming from passive-sensor measurements. We investigate the observed relationship between the Sc and Cu cloud cover in tropical subsidence oceanic regions and their link to the primary low-cloud controlling factors (sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength). To gain further insight into the Sc-Cu cloud partitioning, we explore the Sc-Cu relationship during the four meteorological seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) as well as on monthly timescale. We find a substantial negative correlation between the Sc and Cu cloud cover on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales. We finally evaluate how well climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6) agree with the observations. These results establish a framework to advance model parameterizations of the underlying physical processes driving the stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds (turbulence and convection).
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This paper covers the review, status, and projected future of direct numerical simulation (DNS) methodology relative to the state-of-the-art in computer technology, numerical methods, and the trends in fundamental research programs.
The NASA Glenn Research Center through a contract with Spectrum Astro, Inc., has been developing space network hardware as an enabling technology using open systems interconnect (OSI) standards for space-based communications applications. The OSI standard is a well-recognized layered reference model that specifies how data should be sent node to node in a communications network. Because of this research and technology development, a space-qualifiable Ethernet-based network interface card (similar to the type found in a networked personal computer) and the associated four-port hub were designed and developed to flight specifications. During this research and development, there also have been many lessons learned for determining approaches for migrating existing spacecraft architectures to an OSI-network-based platform. Industry has recognized the benefits of targeting hardware developed around OSI standards such as Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) or similar protocols for use in future generations of space communication systems. Some of these tangible benefits include overall reductions in mission schedule and cost and in system complexity. This development also brings us a step closer to the realization of a principal investigator on a terrestrial Internet site being able to interact with space platform assets in near real time. To develop this hardware, Spectrum Astro first conducted a technology analysis of alternatives study. For this analysis, they looked at the features of three protocol specifications: Ethernet (IEEE 802.3), Firewire (IEEE 1394), and Spacewire (IEEE 1355). A thorough analysis was performed on the basis of criteria such as current protocol performance and suitability for future space applications. Spectrum Astro also projected future influences such as cost, hardware and software availability, throughput performance, and integration procedures for current and transitive space architectures. After a thorough analysis, Ethernet was chosen because it was seen as the best longer term fit because of the prevalent commercial market; the current and projected availability of hardware, software, and development tools; and the ease of architecture integration.
The historical uses of hydrogen are described along with potential new uses which could develop as a result of the diminishing supply of conventional fossil fuels such as natural gas. A perspective view of hydrogen, both as a chemical feedstock and as a fuel, is necessary to understand its relationship to the overall national energy projections. These projections, which show energy usage in terms of use sectors, forms of energy, and sources of energy, do not specifically identify hydrogen as a component of the energy system. By superimposing the traditional roles upon the new opportunities for hydrogen on the energy projections, the role of hydrogen and future projections is developed within the context of the national energy projections. Use, supply, and other factors affecting application are interrelated and are discussed.
Program Evaulation and Review Technique (PERT) is disciplined management technique involving computer processing. NASA PERT Time 11 gives project manager insight into current and future project development and forewarns of potential problems. Program utilizes modular technique. Module is "fragnet"; once aspects of project are described in terms of fragnets, control network is automatically generated. Program is written in FORTRAN IV and OS Assembler for batch execution and has been implemented on IBM 370.
To effectively manage a software development project, the software manager must have access to key information concerning a project's status. This information includes not only data relating to the project of interest, but also, the experience of past development efforts within the environment. This paper describes the concepts and functionality of a software management tool designed to provide this information. This tool, called the Software Management Environment (SME), enables the software manager to compare an ongoing development effort with previous efforts and with models of the 'typical' project within the environment, to predict future project status, to analyze a project's strengths and weaknesses, and to assess the project's quality. In order to provide these functions the tool utilizes a vast corporate memory that includes a data base of software metrics, a set of models and relationships that describe the software development environment, and a set of rules that capture other knowledge and experience of software managers within the environment. Integrating these major concepts into one software management tool, the SME is a model of the type of management tool needed for all software development organizations.
Orbital debris experts and industry leaders are concerned about the added hazard that thousands of additional spacecraft would have on the future orbital debris environment. Large constellations proposals plan to deploy spacecraft at altitudes from 1100 km to 1300 km, where fragmentation debris can take thousands of years or longer to decay naturally, while other proposals include deploying spacecraft at station-keeping altitudes from 300 km to 600 km. Although these lower altitude spacecraft are compliant with the 25-year rule, there is still an increased risk of accidental explosions generating high velocity fragments that could damage international spacecraft assets. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted several parametric studies that examine the potential negative environmental impacts of large constellation deployments. This study addresses the lower altitude constellations and the potential risk that they impose on the future environment during mission operations. The projected future environment is generated as the average of 100 LEGEND Monte Carlo (MC) simulation runs while adjusting parameters such as average probability of explosion and operational lifetime per constellation. Results of the effect of accidental explosions of large constellation spacecraft on the environment below 600 km altitude are analyzed.
The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.
In the past, telemetry data systems in support of JPL flight projects were designed specifically for each mission. The Magellan System Test Data Processing Subsystem (STDPS) marks a departure from these past designs. For the first time, a reusable telemetry-processing subsystem has been designed that is flexible enough to meet the spacecraft-testing requirements of the present project, and can be easily changed for future projects as well. These changes are all accomplished through a user-friendly, menu-oriented interface. Extensive software reprogramming is no longer required.
The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate sulfate, dust, carbonaceous, and sea salt aerosols. The simulations are conducted using the present and future emission scenarios based on the IPCC projection. Distributions of individual aerosol components for the present day are compared with observations from field experiments, ground-based sun photometer networks, and remote sensing. Aerosol radiative forcing for the present day and the projected future will also be discussed.
The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.
The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.
The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.
Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.
Risks attendant to NASA's operations are identified for the following: mission operations; orbiter readiness for orbital flight tests; space shuttle main engine; avionics; thermal projection system; hazard assessment; human error. Past and future projects are assessed.