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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Study of a homotopy continuation method for early orbit determination with the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)

A recent mathematical technique for solving systems of equations is applied in a very general way to the orbit determination problem. The study of this technique, the homotopy continuation method, was motivated by the possible need to perform early orbit determination with the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), using range and Doppler tracking alone. Basically, a set of six tracking observations is continuously transformed from a set with known solution to the given set of observations with unknown solutions, and the corresponding orbit state vector is followed from the a priori estimate to the solutions. A numerical algorithm for following the state vector is developed and described in detail. Numerical examples using both real and simulated TDRSS tracking are given. A prototype early orbit determination algorithm for possible use in TDRSS orbit operations was extensively tested, and the results are described. Preliminary studies of two extensions of the method are discussed: generalization to a least-squares formulation and generalization to an exhaustive global method.

Smith, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A conservative, consistent, and scalable meshfree mimetic method

Mimetic methods discretize divergence by restricting the Gauss theorem to mesh cells. Because point clouds lack such geometric entities, construction of a compatible meshfree divergence remains a challenge. In this work, we define an abstract Meshfree Mimetic Divergence (MMD) operator on point clouds by contraction of field and virtual face moments. This MMD satisfies a discrete divergence theorem, provides a discrete local conservation principle, and is first-order accurate. We consider two MMD instantiations. The first one assumes a background mesh and uses generalized moving least squares (GMLS) to obtain the necessary field and face moments. This MMD instance is appropriate for settings where a mesh is available but its quality is insufficient for a robust and accurate mesh-based discretization. The second MMD operator retains the GMLS field moments but defines virtual face moments using computationally efficient weighted graph-Laplacian equations. This MMD instance does not require a background grid and is appropriate for applications where mesh generation creates a computational bottleneck. It allows one to trade an expensive mesh generation problem for a scalable algebraic one, without sacrificing compatibility with the divergence operator. We demonstrate the approach by using the MMD operator to obtain a virtual finite-volume discretization of conservation laws on point clouds. Finally, numerical results in the paper confirm the mimetic properties of the method and show that it behaves similarly to standard finite volume methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Systematic Discrepancies in Nuclear-Data Measurements with Machine Learning

Nuclear data and their associated co-variances are constantly being reevaluated as techniques improve and as new experimental data, as well as nuclearmodel developments, emerge. A standard technique used to evaluate mean values in nuclear data, and their associated covariances, is the generalized linear least squares (GLLS) method. Aligning with recent efforts to incorporate measurement features into nuclear data evaluation, we augment GLLS by including a linear term which attempts to predict potential systematic discrepancies in experimental data as related to the measurement features. Due to the general nature of this augmentation, we are able to apply this evaluation to three key observables: neutroninduced fission cross sections, the average prompt neutron multiplicity, and the prompt-fission neutron spectrum of ²³⁹Pu.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic average model methods

We consider the solution of finite-sum minimization problems, such as those appearing in nonlinear least-squares or general empirical risk minimization problems. We are motivated by problems in which the summand functions are computationally expensive and evaluating all summands on every iteration of an optimization method may be undesirable. Here we present the idea of stochastic average model (SAM) methods, inspired by stochastic average gradient methods. SAM methods sample component functions on each iteration of a trust-region method according to a discrete probability distribution on component functions; the distribution is designed to minimize an upper bound on the variance of the resulting stochastic model. We present promising numerical results concerning an implemented variant extending the derivative-free model-based trust-region solver POUNDERS, which we name SAM-POUNDERS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark—A Bayesian Inverse UQ-Based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety has proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ) employing scientific machine learning surrogate models as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of generalized linear least squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. Here, when comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that the GLLS predictions failed to replicate the computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA showed near agreement, and IUQ used the computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Bayesian calibration↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regression of exchangeable relational arrays

Relational arrays represent measures of association between pairs of actors, often in varied contexts or over time. Trade flows between countries, financial transactions between individuals, contact frequencies between school children in classrooms and dynamic protein-protein interactions are all examples of relational arrays. Elements of a relational array are often modelled as a linear function of observable covariates. Uncertainty estimates for regression coefficient estimators, and ideally the coefficient estimators themselves, must account for dependence between elements of the array, e.g., relations involving the same actor. Existing estimators of standard errors that recognize such relational dependence rely on estimating extremely complex, heterogeneous structure across actors. This paper develops a new class of parsimonious coefficient and standard error estimators for regressions of relational arrays. Here we leverage an exchangeability assumption to derive standard error estimators that pool information across actors, and are substantially more accurate than existing estimators in a variety of settings. This exchangeability assumption is pervasive in network and array models in the statistics literature, but not previously considered when adjusting for dependence in a regression setting with relational data. We demonstrate improvements in inference theoretically, via a simulation study, and by analysis of a dataset involving international trade.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Asymptotically Compatible Reproducing Kernel Collocation and Meshfree Integration for Nonlocal Diffusion

Reproducing kernel (RK) approximations are meshfree methods that construct shape functions from sets of scattered data. We present an asymptotically compatible (AC) RK collocation method for nonlocal diffusion models with Dirichlet boundary condition. The numerical scheme is shown to be convergent to both nonlocal diffusion and its corresponding local limit as nonlocal interaction vanishes. The analysis is carried out on a special family of rectilinear Cartesian grids for a linear RK method with designed kernel support. The key idea for the stability of the RK collocation scheme is to compare the collocation scheme with the standard Galerkin scheme, which is stable. In addition, assembling the stiffness matrix of the nonlocal problem requires costly computational resources because high-order Gaussian quadrature is necessary to evaluate the integral. We thus provide a remedy to the problem by introducing a quasi-discrete nonlocal diffusion operator for which no numerical quadrature is further needed after applying the RK collocation scheme. The quasi-discrete nonlocal diffusion operator combined with RK collocation is shown to be convergent to the correct local diffusion problem by taking the limits of nonlocal interaction and spatial resolution simultaneously. The theoretical results are then validated with numerical experiments. We additionally illustrate a connection between the proposed technique and an existing optimization based approach based on generalized moving least squares.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fission Product Yield Data Adjustment in a Prototype Version of TSURFER

The TSURFER (Tool for Sensitivity/Uncertainty analysis of Response Functionals using Experimental Results) module of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) SCALE code system has been updated to perform nuclear data adjustments for fixed-source irradiation/depletion problems. TSURFER uses a generalized linear least squares (GLLS) approach to consolidate a prior set of measured responses and corresponding calculated values to create the most self-consistent set of nuclear data. Traditionally, TSURFER adjustments have been performed for multigroup nuclear data such as reaction cross sections. In this work, TSURFER is expanded to perform adjustments to independent fission product yields and branching ratios that need equality constraints. To preserve equality constraints after the data adjustment procedure, an updated GLLS formulation includes a new Lagrange multiplier that forces data adjustment to sum to 0 for a given fission yield/branching ratio parent. A test problem illustrates that the newly updated TSURFER module satisfies the required constraint that adjustments for fission yield data sum to 0.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing a Continuous Nuclear Data Evaluation Method for the Resolved and Unresolved Resonance Regions With FITAPI and SAMMY [Poster]

SAMMY is an R-matrix Bayesian fitting program used in the analysis of nuclear cross section data. SAMMY produces separate cross section models in the resolved and unresolved resonance regions. This project develops a new method of continuous evaluation joining both energy regions with FITAPI. Full energy spectrum model introduces cross covariance between physics models allowing more accurate description of uncertainty. Consistency developed between physics models by the use of a unique set of prior parameters. An unresolved region cross section developed with sensitivity to resolved cross section. Incorporation into ORNL FITAPI provides access to greater number of parameter estimation algorithms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark -- A Bayesian Inverse UQ-based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. When comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that GLLS predictions fail to replicate computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA shows near agreement, and IUQ uses computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metrics for Intercomparison of Remapping Algorithms (MIRA) protocol applied to Earth system models

Abstract. Strongly coupled nonlinear phenomena such as those described by Earth system models (ESMs) are composed of multiple component models with independent mesh topologies and scalable numerical solvers. A common operation in ESMs is to remap or interpolate component solution fields defined on their computational mesh to another mesh with a different combinatorial structure and decomposition, e.g., from the atmosphere to the ocean, during the temporal integration of the coupled system. Several remapping schemes are currently in use or available for ESMs. However, a unified approach to compare the properties of these different schemes has not been attempted previously. We present a rigorous methodology for the evaluation and intercomparison of remapping methods through an independently implemented suite of metrics that measure the ability of a method to adhere to constraints such as grid independence, monotonicity, global conservation, and local extrema or feature preservation. A comprehensive set of numerical evaluations is conducted based on a progression of scalar fields from idealized and smooth to more general climate data with strong discontinuities and strict bounds. We examine four remapping algorithms with distinct design approaches, namely ESMF Regrid (Hill et al., 2004), TempestRemap (Ullrich and Taylor, 2015), generalized moving least squares (GMLS) (Trask and Kuberry, 2020) with post-processing filters, and WLS-ENOR (Li et al., 2020). By repeated iterative application of the high-order remapping methods to the test fields, we verify the accuracy of each scheme in terms of their observed convergence order for smooth data and determine the bounded error propagation using challenging, realistic field data on both uniform and regionally refined mesh cases. In addition to retaining high-order accuracy under idealized conditions, the methods also demonstrate robust remapping performance when dealing with non-smooth data. There is a failure to maintain monotonicity in the traditional L2-minimization approaches used in ESMF and TempestRemap, in contrast to stable recovery through nonlinear filters used in both meshless GMLS and hybrid mesh-based WLS-ENOR schemes. Local feature preservation analysis indicates that high-order methods perform better than low-order dissipative schemes for all test cases. The behavior of these remappers remains consistent when applied on regionally refined meshes, indicating mesh-invariant implementations. The MIRA intercomparison protocol proposed in this paper and the detailed comparison of the four algorithms demonstrate that the new schemes, namely GMLS and WLS-ENOR, are competitive compared to standard conservative minimization methods requiring computation of mesh intersections. The work presented in this paper provides a foundation that can be extended to include complex field definitions, realistic mesh topologies, and spectral element discretizations, thereby allowing for a more complete analysis of production-ready remapping packages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Satellite interferometer as an advanced navigation/communication system

An orthogonal system of interferometry baselines aboard a geostationary satellite is proposed to be used for navigation, surveillance, and traffic control. Position determination is based on the relationship between the measured phase differences, the known and unknown transmitter locations, and other systematic error model parameters using a generalized least-squares estimation procedure. It is shown that position accuracy is critically dependent on the baseline length and on the magnitude of the random component of the measuring errors. Several trade-offs with respect to the system accuracies, the number of users, data rates, hardware costs, etc., are examined. Simultaneous use of the same channels for navigation and data transfer is found feasible and five candidate or 'strawman' interferometer system proposals are presented. It is concluded that the system's performance is excellent in comparison with present or planned systems, and that it is viable in meeting potential user's requirements.

Gopalapillai, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Automatic voice recognition using traditional and artificial neural network approaches

The main objective of this research is to develop an algorithm for isolated-word recognition. This research is focused on digital signal analysis rather than linguistic analysis of speech. Features extraction is carried out by applying a Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) algorithm with order of 10. Continuous-word and speaker independent recognition will be considered in future study after accomplishing this isolated word research. To examine the similarity between the reference and the training sets, two approaches are explored. The first is implementing traditional pattern recognition techniques where a dynamic time warping algorithm is applied to align the two sets and calculate the probability of matching by measuring the Euclidean distance between the two sets. The second is implementing a backpropagation artificial neural net model with three layers as the pattern classifier. The adaptation rule implemented in this network is the generalized least mean square (LMS) rule. The first approach has been accomplished. A vocabulary of 50 words was selected and tested. The accuracy of the algorithm was found to be around 85 percent. The second approach is in progress at the present time.

Botros, Nazeih M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Multiple boundary condition testing error analysis

Techniques for interpreting data from multiple-boundary-condition (MBC) ground tests of large space structures are developed analytically and demonstrated. The use of MBC testing to validate structures too large to stand alone on the ground is explained; the generalized least-squares mass and stiffness curve-fitting methods typically applied to MBC test data are reviewed; and a detailed error analysis is performed. Consideration is given to sensitivity coefficients, covariance-matrix theory, the correspondence between test and analysis modes, constraints and step sizes, convergence criteria, and factor-analysis theory. Numerical results for a simple beam problem are presented in tables and briefly characterized. The improved error-updating capabilities of MBC testing are confirmed, and it is concluded that reasonably accurate results can be obtained using a diagonal covariance matrix.

Glaser, R. J.↗