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Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

Pullkkinen, A.↗

Search for correlation between geomagnetic disturbances and mortality

Statistical evaluation of death rates in the U.S.A. from heart diseases or stroke did not show any correlation with measured geomagnetic pulsations and thus do not support a claimed relationship between geomagnetic activity and mortality rates to low frequency fluctuations of the earth's magnetic field.

Lipa, B. J.↗

Comment on Decay of the Dst Field of Geomagnetic Disturbance After Substorm Onset and its Implication to Storm-Substorm Relation

Over the past few years, there has been a considerable revival in the study of geomagnetic storms stimulated by an increasing knowledge of the energetic particles which comprise the ring current. It is only in recent years that the composition of the ring current has been thouroughly explored and the important role of the oxygen component of the near Earth plasma sheet has become recognized.

geomagnetic storms near Earth plasma sheet ring cu↗

Search for correlation between geomagnetic disturbances and mortality

A search is conducted for a possible correlation between solar activity and myocardial infarction and stroke in the United States. A statistical analysis is performed using data on geomagnetic activity and the daily U.S. mortality due to coronary heart disease and stroke for the years 1962 through 1966. None of the results are found to yield any evidence of a correlation. It is concluded that correlations claimed by Soviet workers between geomagnetic activity and the incidence of various human diseases are probably not statistically significant or probably are not due to a causal relation between geomagnetic activity and disease.

Lipa, B. J.↗

Solar large-scale positive polarity magnetic fields and geomagnetic disturbances

Unlike the negative polarity solar magnetic field large-scale regular features that correlate with enhanced solar activity regions, the positive polarity regular formations formed in the weak and old background magnetic fields seem to correlate well with geomagnetically enhanced periods of time (shifted for 4 days), which means that they seem to be the source of the quiet solar wind. This behavior of the large intervals of heliographic longitude with prevailing positive polarity fields may be followed to the end of the 18th cycle, during the declining part of the 19th cycle, and during the first half of the present 20th cycle of solar activity.

Bumba, V.↗

The cosmic ray differential diurnal variation dependences on the zenith angle and the geomagnetic disturbance

Simultaneous and continuous muon measurements in two opposite azimuthal directions under equal zenith angles demonstrated the importance of this method for cosmic ray diurnal variation investigations. Lately these measurements were extended by means of improved telescopes. The obtained cosmic ray diurnal variations were presented as intensity differential curves. Theoretical investigations connected the properties of these curves with some interplanetary spece parameters. The harmonics of these curves were interpreted physically. Some order difference curves were introduced. In earlier works some dependences between the parameters characterizing the first and the second harmonics of the differential intensity curves and the geomagnetic activity were found. Then all measurements were carried out under only one zenith angle. The results of investigations of similar dependences using data of simultaneous measurements under three different zenith angles are presented.

Kavlakov, S.↗

Magnetic clouds, geomagnetic disturbances, and cosmic ray decreases

Nineteen magnetic clouds are identified in the years from 1978 through 1982 and studied using superposed epoch analysis. The magnetic-field intensity, proton density and proton temperature are enhanced ahead of magnetic clouds that are preceded by shock, while strong magnetic-field intensity and low proton temperature are observed within the clouds. A relatively large (about 2.5 percent) decrease in cosmic-ray intensity is associated with magnetic clouds that are preceded by a shock, perhaps caused by the turbulent sheath behind an interplanetary shock ahead of the magnetic cloud, whereas only a small (0.5 percent) decrease in intensity is associated with the magnetic cloud itself. Magnetic clouds can produce geomagnetic activity with a decrease in Dst index of the order 100 gamma. The magnitude of the change in the Dst index for the case when southward fields arrive first is comparable to that for the case when northward fields arrive first, and the phase is such that geomagnetic activity is associated with southward fields.

Zhang, G.↗

Coronal holes, solar wind streams, and geomagnetic disturbances during 1978 and 1979

It was found that, during 1978 and 1979, coronal holes reflected the influence of differential rotation, and were present within a slowly evolving large-scale pattern in spite of the relatively high level of sunspot activity. The long-lived 28.5-day pattern is not produced by a rigidly rotating quasi-stationary structure on the sun, but appears to be produced by a nonstationary migratory process associated with solar differential rotation. The association between coronal holes and solar wind speed enhancements at earth continues to depend on the latitude of the holes (relative to the heliographic latitude of earth), but even the best associations since 1976 have speeds of only 500-600 km/s rather than the values of 600-700 km/s that usually occurred during the declining phase of sunspot cycle 20.

Sheeley, N. R., Jr.↗

Observations of a gradual transition between Ps 6 activity with auroral torches and surgelike pulsations during strong geomagnetic disturbances

This paper describes a long-lasting large-amplitude pulsation event, which occurred on January 10, 1983 in the ionosphere and magnetosphere and was characterized by Steen and Rees (1983). Over the 4-h period (0200-0600 UT), the characteristics of the pulsations in the ionosphere changed from being Ps 6 auroral torches toward substorms and back to Ps 6. At GEO, the corresponding characteristics were a modulation of the high-energy particle intensity and plasma dropouts. Based on the ideas presented by Rostoker and Samson (1984), an interpretation of the event is offered, according to which the pulsations are caused by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability during an interval of strong magnetospheric convection. On the basis of this explanation, a new interpretation of the substorm time sequence is proposed.

Steen, A.↗

Comparative Accuracies of Models for Drag Prediction During Geomagnetically Disturbed Periods: A First Principles Model Versus Empirical Models

We examine the accuracy of density prediction by the first principles model Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and compare it to the accuracy of three empirical models: Jacchia 71, the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter Extended 2000 (NRLMSIS), Jacchia 1971, and Jacchia-Bowman 2008. Comparisons are made for three large storms: the October 2003 storm, the March 2013 storm, and the March 2015 storm. To evaluate the accuracy of these models we use tracking data for nine space objects in low Earth orbit. Additionally, we evaluate the accuracy of the TIEGCM and NRLMSIS with data from high precision accelerometers on the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity field and Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellites. The goal is to assess the use of a first principles model as a potential tool for forecasting satellite drag during large magnetic storms. For the storms considered, we found the TIEGCM, JB2008, and NRLMSIS models to be substantially more accurate than the Jacchia 71 model. The accuracies of the TIEGCM and JB2008 models were similar, but overall, the TIEGCM was more accurate. We found smaller differences for TIEGCM versus CHAMP than for NRLMIS for the Halloween Storm, and smaller differences than results published for JB2008 and the assimilative model HASDM. The empirical models are at present more practical for operational purposes, but the TIEGCM, developed as a research model, with a greater focus on operational use offers the potential for improved utility during stressing conditions.

R. L. Walterscheid↗