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At least 55 records · Page 3

Global models of Ne and Te at solar maximum based on DE-2 measurements

Newly developed global models of the electron density of (Ne) and (Te) in the F-region at solar maximum, based on Langmuir probe measurements from the Dynamics Explorer-2 satellite, are compared with solar minimum models that were developed earlier from Atmosphere Explorer data. Spherical harmonics are used in both models to describe the variations with geomagnetic latitude and local time, but the solar maximum model also includes longitudinal variations. The solar minimum models were for the fixed altitudes of 300 km and 400 km, while the solar maximum model covers all altitudes between 300 and 1000 km. In this paper, the global patterns of Ne and Te at 400 km at solar maximum and minimum are compared with the IRI model for the corresponding parts of the solar cycle. In most respects, the IRI model describes the empirical models quite well at both solar maximum and solar minimum.

Brace, L. H.↗

Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative Model Predictions of Antarctic Ozone Recovery to Input Meteorological Fields

We use the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the evolution of stratospheric ozone between 1995 and 2030, using boundary conditions consistent with the recent World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. We compare the Antarctic ozone recovery predictions of two simulations, one driven by an annually repeated year of meteorological data from a general circulation model (GCM), the other using a year of output from a data assimilation system (DAS), to examine the sensitivity of Antarctic ozone recovery predictions to the characteristic dynamical differences between GCM- and DAS-generated meteorological data. Although the age of air in the Antarctic lower stratosphere differs by a factor of 2 between the simulations, we find little sensitivity of the 1995-2030 Antarctic ozone recovery between 350 and 650 K to the differing meteorological fields, particularly when the recovery is specified in mixing ratio units. Percent changes are smaller in the DAS-driven simulation compared to the GCM-driven simulation because of a surplus of Antarctic ozone in the DAS-driven simulation which is not consistent with observations. The peak ozone change between 1995 and 2030 in both simulations is approx.20% lower than photochemical expectations, indicating that changes in ozone transport due to changing ozone gradients at 450 K between 1995 and 2030 constitute a small negative feedback. Total winter/spring ozone loss during the base year (1995) of both simulations and the rate of ozone loss during August and September is somewhat weaker than observed. This appears to be due to underestimates of Antarctic Cl(sub y) at the 450 K potential temperature level.

Considine, David B.↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Comparison of Satellite Global Rainfall Algorithms - Volume 12

Seventeen months of rainfall data (August 1987-December 1988) from nine satellite rainfall algorithms (Adler, Chang, Kummerow, Prabhakara, Huffman, Spencer, Susskind, and Wu) were analyzed to examine the uncertainty of satellite-derived rainfall estimates. The variability among algorithms, measured as the standard deviation computed from the ensemble of algorithms, shows regions of high algorithm variability tend to coincide with regions of high rain rates. Histograms of pattern correlation (PC) between algorithms suggest a bimodal distribution, with separation at a PC-value of about 0.85. Applying this threshold as a criteria for similarity, our analyses show that algorithms using the same sensor or satellite input tend to be similar, suggesting the dominance of sampling errors in these satellite estimates.

Suarez, Max J.↗

The OSSE Framework at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

This abstract summarizes the OSSE framework developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA/GMAO). Some of the OSSE techniques developed at GMAO including simulation of realistic observations, e.g., adding errors to simulated observations, are now widely used by the community to evaluate the impact of new observations on the weather forecasts. This talk presents some of the recent progresses and challenges in simulating realistic observations, radiative transfer modeling support for the GMAO OSSE activities, assimilation of OSSE observations into data assimilation systems, and evaluating the impact of simulated observations on the forecast skills.

Moradi, Isaac↗

A global model of the neutral thermosphere in magnetic coordinates based on AE-C data

An empirical model of the global atomic oxygen and helium distributions in the thermosphere is developed in a magnetic coordinate system and compared to similar models which are expanded in geographic coordinates. The advantage of using magnetic coordinates is that fewer terms are needed to make predictions which are nearly identical to those which would be obtained from a geographic model with longitudinal and universal time corrections. Magnetic coordinates are more directly related to the major energy inputs in the polar regions than geographic coordinates and are more convenient to use in studies of high latitude energy deposition processes. This is important for comparison with theoretical models where the number of coordinates is limited. The effect of magnetic activity on the atomic oxygen distribution in the morning sector of the high latitude thermosphere in the auroral zone is also considered. A magnetic activity indicator (ML) based on an auroral electrojet index (AL) and the 3 hour ap index are used to relate the atomic oxygen density variations to magnetic activity in this region.

Stehle, C. G.↗

A global model of carbon-nutrient interactions

The global biogeochemical model presented has two primary objectives. First, it characterizes natural elemental cycles and their linkages for the four elements significant to Earth's biota: C, N, S, and P. Second, it describes changes in these cycles due to human activity. Global nutrient cycles were studied within the drainage basins of several major world rivers on each continent. The initial study region was the Mississippi drainage basin, concentrating on carbon and nitrogen. The model first establishes the nutrient budgets of the undisturbed ecosystems in a study region. It then uses a data set of land use histories for that region to document the changes in these budgets due to land uses. Nutrient movement was followed over time (1800 to 1980) for 30 ecosystems and 10 land use categories. A geographically referenced ecological information system (GREIS) was developed to manage the digital global data bases of 0.5 x 0.5 grid cells needed to run the model: potential vegetation, drainage basins, precipitation, runoff, contemporary land cover, and FAO soil maps of the world. The results show the contributions of land use categories to river nutrient loads on a continental scale; shifts in nutrient cycling patterns from closed, steady state systems to mobile transient or open, steady state systems; soil organic matter depletion patterns in U.S. agricultural lands; changing nutrient ratios due to land use changes; and the effect of using heavy fertilizer on aquatic systems.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

Aerosol Absorption in Global Models From AeroCom Phase III

Aerosol-induced absorption of shortwave radiation can modify the climate through local atmospheric heating, which affects lapse rates, precipitation, and cloud formation. Presently, the total amount of aerosol absorption is poorly constrained, and the main absorbing aerosol species (black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA), and mineral dust) are diversely quantified in global climate models. As part of the third phase of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) intercomparison initiative (AeroCom phase III), we here document the distribution and magnitude of aerosol absorption in current global aerosol models and quantify the sources of intermodel spread, highlighting the difficulties of attributing absorption to different species. In total, 15 models have provided total present-day absorption at 550 nm (using year 2010 emissions), 11 of which have provided absorption per absorbing species. The multi-model global annual mean total absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) is 0.0054 (0.0020 to 0.0098; 550 nm), with the range given as the minimum and maximum model values. This is 28 % higher compared to the 0.0042 (0.0021 to 0.0076) multi-model mean in AeroCom phase II (using year 2000 emissions), but the difference is within 1 standard deviation, which, in this study, is 0.0023 (0.0019 in Phase II). Of the summed component AAOD, 60 % (range 36 %–84 %) is estimated to be due to BC, 31 % (12 %–49 %) is due to dust, and 11 % (0 %–24 %) is due to OA; however, the components are not independent in terms of their absorbing efficiency. In models with internal mixtures of absorbing aerosols, a major challenge is the lack of a common and simple method to attribute absorption to the different absorbing species. Therefore, when possible, the models with internally mixed aerosols in the present study have performed simulations using the same method for estimating absorption due to BC, OA, and dust, namely by removing it and comparing runs with and without the absorbing species. We discuss the challenges of attributing absorption to different species; we compare burden, refractive indices, and density; and we contrast models with internal mixing to models with external mixing. The model mean BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) value is 10.1 (3.1 to 17.7) m 2 g −1 (550 nm), and the model mean BC AAOD is 0.0030 (0.0007 to 0.0077). The difference in lifetime (and burden) in the models explains as much of the BC AAOD spread as the difference in BC MAC values. The difference in the spectral dependency between the models is striking. Several models have an absorption Ångstrøm exponent (AAE) close to 1, which likely is too low given current knowledge of spectral aerosol optical properties. Most models do not account for brown carbon and underestimate the spectral dependency for OA.

Aerosol absorption↗

Near Real-Time Sub/Seasonal Prediction of Aerosol at NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was released over a year ago by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The model runs at approximately 1/2 degree globally in the atmosphere and ocean, contains a realistic description of the cryosphere, and includes an interactive aerosol model. The data assimilation used to produce initial conditions is weakly coupled, in which the atmosphere-only assimilated state is coupled to an ocean data assimilation system using a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will briefly describe the new system, and show results of aerosol-derived air quality from an extensive series of retrospective forecasts. The interactive aerosol is shown to improve seasonal time scale prediction skill during some "forecasts of oppurtunity". Plans for a future version of the system with predicted biomass burning from fires will also be discussed.

Molod, Andrea M.↗

Near Real-Time Sub/Seasonal Prediction of Aerosol and Air Quality at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Version 2 of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was released almost two years ago by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The model runs at approximately 1/2 degree globally in the atmosphere and ocean, contains a realistic description of the cryosphere, and includes an interactive aerosol model. The data assimilation used to produce initial conditions is weakly coupled, in which the atmosphere-only assimilated state is coupled to an ocean data assimilation system using a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Results of aerosol-derived air quality (Particulate Matter) from an extensive series of retrospective forecasts will be shown, with particular focus on the continental United States and eastern Asia. In addition, under some circumstances, the interactive aerosol is shown to improve seasonal time scale prediction skill. Plans for a future version of the system with predicted biomass burning from fires will also be discussed.

Molod, Andrea↗

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Annual Report and Research Highlights 2011-2012

Over the last year, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has continued to advance our GEOS-5-based systems, updating products for both weather and climate applications. We contributed hindcasts and forecasts to the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of seasonal forecasts and the suite of decadal predictions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

Reanalysis Activities at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

This talk presents an overview of recent reanalysis activities at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) as part of a multi-faceted strategy towards an Integrated Earth System retrospective analysis, coupling components of the atmosphere, ocean, chemistry, land, and ice. While elements of the atmosphere-ocean coupled Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation are being actively developed, a suite of reanalysis products is designed to provide further understanding of key aspects of Earth system coupling in a reanalysis context: The baseline atmospheric reanalysis, the GEOS Retrospective analysis for the early 21st Century (GEOS-R21C), features recent advances in the GEOS model and data assimilation, and targets the NASA’s Earth Observing System EOS and post-EOS satellite observations; GEOS-IT, a user-tailored low-resolution atmospheric reanalysis, serves as a second baseline to the NASA Instrument Teams for validation and calibration and drives a one-way coupled ocean reanalysis, GEOSIT-Ocean; PolarMERRA, a high-resolution downscaled product for the polar regions, focuses on improving the representation of polar atmospheric processes with an assessment of current cryospheric biases, and targeted improvements to surface sea ice and glacier conditions; Finally, R21C-Chem, an off-line atmospheric chemistry and composition reanalysis, includes both tropospheric and stratospheric trace gases. The diversity of these reanalysis activities presents unique opportunities for collaborations cross-teams/institutions, with new commercial data partners, and with end-user groups. This talk will discuss these opportunities and explore leveraging the lessons learned along the way on key drivers in Earth system interactions as we converge towards the next generation of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) suite.

Amal El Akkraoui↗

Modeling global structural damping in trusses using simple continuum models

Truss beams with members having viscous damping are modeled as continuum Timoshenko beams. Procedures for deriving the equivalent beam stiffnesses and damping are presented. The global damping for the continuum beam is explicitly expressed in terms of the damping coefficients of the individual truss members. The continuum beam model is used to study transient vibration problems and the solutions are compared well with the full scale finite element solutions. The gradient method is used for parameter estimations in conjunction with the Timoshenko beam model. It is shown that the Timoshenko beam model can be easily updated with measured data and the updated model can yield very accurate transient solutions.

Sun, C. T.↗

Use of Remotely-Sensed Rainfall Data in Global Modeling and Data Assimilation

Precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors available from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the proposed Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) can provide crucial information needed for improving global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. New methodologies are being developed at NASA to make effective use of this new data type in these applications. Currently, global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. We show that assimilating 6-h averaged TRMM rainfall retrievals improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the upper tropospheric moisture in the analysis produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System. The improved analysis also leads to improved short-range forecasts in the tropics. The above results were obtained using a variational assimilation procedure that uses rainfall observations to derive moisture and temperature tendency corrections every 6 hours to compensate for errors arising from imperfect initial conditions and deficiencies in the model physics. We will describe a developmental path towards using space-borne rainfall data to empirically estimate and correct for state-dependent systematic errors in parameterized model physics. The study provides a demonstration of the potential of using remote-sensed rainfall data from microwave instruments to improve the 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and numerical weather prediction.

Hou, Arthur↗

A Global Model Simulation of Aerosol Effects of Surface Radiation Budget- Toward Understanding of the "Dimming to Brightening" Transition

We present a global model study on the role aerosols play in the change of solar radiation at Earth's surface that transitioned from a decreasing (dimming) trend to an increasing (brightening) trend. Our primary objective is to understand the relationship between the long-term trends of aerosol emission, atmospheric burden, and surface solar radiation. More specifically, we use the recently compiled comprehensive global emission datasets of aerosols and precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions and other sources from 1980 to 2006 to simulate long-term variations of aerosol distributions and optical properties, and then calculate the multi-decadal changes of short-wave radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere by coupling the GOCART model simulated aerosols with the Goddard radiative transfer model. The model results are compared with long-term observational records from ground-based networks and satellite data. We will address the following critical questions: To what extent can the observed surface solar radiation trends, known as the transition from dimming to brightening, be explained by the changes of anthropogenic and natural aerosol loading on global and regional scales? What are the relative contributions of local emission and long-range transport to the surface radiation budget and how do these contributions change with time?

Chin, Mian↗

Development of a global model for atmospheric backscatter at CO2 wavelengths

Several areas of research which contribute to the development of a global model for atmospheric backscatter at CO2 wavelengths are discussed briefly. A computer program was written which fits a bimodal log-normal model to an aerosol size distribution. A ten-layer atmospheric model used to study the effect of gravitational sedimentation on aerosol particle size distribution was expanded by incorporating the transport effect due to vertical diffusion. Future research directions are outlined.

Source record↗

Tropospheric Ozone Determined from Aura OMI and MLS: Evaluation of Measurements and Comparison with the Global Modeling Initiative's Chemical Transport Model

Ozone measurements from the OMI and MLS instruments on board the Aura satellite are used for deriving global distributions of tropospheric column ozone (TCO). TCO is determined using the tropospheric ozone residual method which involves subtracting measurements of MLS stratospheric column ozone (SCO) from OMI total column ozone after adjusting for intercalibration differences of the two instruments using the convective-cloud differential method. The derived TCO field, which covers one complete year of mostly continuous daily measurements from late August 2004 through August 2005, is used for studying the regional and global pollution on a timescale of a few days to months. The seasonal and zonal characteristics of the observed TCO fields are also compared with TCO fields derived from the Global Modeling Initiative's Chemical Transport Model. The model and observations show interesting similarities with respect to zonal and seasonal variations. However, there are notable differences, particularly over the vast region of the Saharan desert.

Ziemke, J. R.↗

Chemical OSSEs in Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

This presentation will summarize ongoing 'chemical observing system simulation experiment (OSSE)' work in the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Weather OSSEs are being studied in detail, with a 'nature run' based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model that can be sampled by a synthesized suite of satellites that reproduces present-day observations. Chemical OSSEs are based largely on the carbon-cycle project and aim to study (1) how well we can reproduce the observed carbon distribution with the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) sensors and (2) with what accuracy can we deduce surface sources and sinks of carbon species in an assimilation system.

Pawson, Steven↗