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At least 55 records · Page 3

Building Environmental Justice and Equity into the Development of Critical Mineral Industries

The global transition toward low-carbon energy not only means an increase in demand for clean electricity and renewable resources, but also an increase in demand for the critical minerals (CMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) that these technologies rely upon. Indeed, low-carbon energy technologies, such as those used for wind turbines and electric vehicle motors, require significantly more lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, and other CMs than fossil-based energy technologies. The growing demand for new forms of low- carbon energy will necessitate a proportional scale-up of CM and REE extraction and processing. Presently, the majority of extraction and processing activities for CMs and REEs are concentrated in very few countries, primarily in China and the Global South. CM and REE supply chain activities conducted in or controlled by these countries are commonly associated with widespread and well- documented human rights abuses and environmental degradation. As a result of concerns related to supply chain security, worker welfare, and the overall need for additional sources of CMs and REEs, governments worldwide have begun to explore policy pathways for the development of new supply chains. The development of new supply chains for CMs and REEs re s a multifold opportunity to accelerate the global deployment of low-carbon energy fleets, reduce global carbon emissions, build political resilience—and also to enhance policy objectives of environmental justice and equity in the clean energy transition. Fulfilling these policy objectives requires energy producers to navigate a maze of global supply chain policies designed to shape and accelerate the growth of new markets. In the United States, for instance, President Biden recently implemented fiscal and trade policies that incentivize both domestic and global reliance on U.S.-produced CMs and REEs, leveraging key relationships in Asia and Europe to ensure the accelerated buildout of the U.S. supply chain. The Biden Administration’s framework also emphasizes that new supply chains for CMs, REEs, and other low-carbon energy pathways must generate benefits for marginalized and disadvantaged communities, build energy equity, and contribute to the Biden Administration’s vision of environmental justice. present CM and REE supply chains include several stages, including mining, processing, transport, utilization, and disposal, each of which involves different environmental justice considerations and potential injustices. This study explores how technical innovation, paired with responsible community engagement and empowerment, can help inform the development of energy equity and environmental justice at all stages of new supply chains. The study highlights these opportunities on a broad scale. We also lend a specific focus to research at the University of Wyoming School of Energy Resources that aims to guide the development of CM and REE industries in communities with high economic dependence on coal and other fossil fuel industries, identifying pathways to grow a U.S. domestic supply chain by producing CMs from coal, coal by-products, and coal waste streams. These production pathways represent a potential new supply for CMs across the U.S. and elsewhere, thereby enhancing national security and accelerating the widespread deployment of low-carbon energy technologies, while also generating alternative applications for remaining coal reserves and aiding in a just transition for rural energy-producing communities.

Gerace, Selena↗

Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Forest Age Rivals Climate to Explain Reproductive Allocation Patterns in Forest Ecosystems Globally

ABSTRACT Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction (carbon required for flowers, fruits, and seeds) is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well‐supported trade‐off with allocation to growth. Here, we present the first global synthesis of a biometric proxy for forest reproductive allocation (RA) across environmental and stand age gradients from a compiled dataset of 824 observations across 393 sites. We find that ecosystem‐scale RA increases ~60% from boreal to tropical forests. Climate shows important non‐linear relationships with RA, but is not the sole predictor. Forest age effects are comparable to climate in magnitude (MAT: ß = 0.24,p = 0.021; old growth forest: ß = 0.22,p < 0.001), while metrics of soil fertility show small but significant relationships with RA (soil pH: ß = 0.07,p = 0.001; soil N: ß = −0.07,p = 0.001). These results provide strong evidence that ecosystem‐scale RA is mediated by climate, forest age, and soil conditions, and is not a globally fixed fraction of positive NPP as assumed by most vegetation and ecosystem models. Our dataset and findings can be used by modellers to improve predictions of forest regeneration and carbon cycling.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets

Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What drives embodied carbon policy? A global perspective on adoption

Abstract Embodied carbon refers to the greenhouse gas emission associated with the lifecycle of buildings. Embodied carbon policies are critical for addressing the environmental impact of construction materials and advancing climate goals. Despite their importance, the adoption of embodied carbon policies has been limited globally, influenced by economic, environmental, institutional, and trade factors. This study employs structural equation modeling to analyze 37 countries, testing ten hypotheses across four categorical factors. The base model reveals the significant influence of environmental vulnerability and institutional frameworks on policy adoption, while robustness models confirm the critical role of trade dependencies and economic competitiveness in shaping national embodied carbon strategies. Findings underscore that countries with high climate vulnerability and strong institutional support are more likely to adopt embodied carbon policies. Conversely, trade-reliant nations face challenges balancing competitiveness and sustainability. Policy implications suggest the need for international collaboration to align trade policies with carbon reduction goals, targeted support for vulnerable nations, and the integration of embodied carbon considerations into existing climate frameworks. These results offer a roadmap for policymakers to design more effective and equitable embodied carbon policies, fostering global progress toward sustainable construction and decarbonization.

Hu, Ming (ORCID:0000000325831161)↗

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Contrasting phase changes of precipitation annual cycle between land and ocean under global warming

The annual cycle of precipitation is a fundamental aspect of the water cycle with global ramification. Climate warming induces a robust phase delay1-5 in zonal mean tropical precipitation concomitant with an amplitude enhancement6-8. Here, we find a large land ocean contrast in the phase response of precipitation annual cycle, with a phase delay over land and a phase advance over ocean as climate warms. The phase delay over land is mainly attributed to the increase in the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, while the phase advance over ocean is associated with a precipitation shift from land to ocean during the peak rainy season. Through the energetic constraint, this precipitation shift is closely related to the opposite changes in the amplitude of surface temperature annual cycle between land and ocean, both as consequences of basic climate feedback processes under global warming: weakening of the summer trade wind over the tropical ocean increases the surface temperature seasonal amplitude through evaporation, while an increase of the atmospheric effective heat capacity and surface cooling feedback induces opposite temperature amplitude changes over the tropical land. The opposite precipitation phase changes between land and ocean will have myriad implications for terrestrial/marine ecosystems and human activities.

Song, Fengfei↗

How demand for and trade of construction materials affects greenhouse gas emissions

Construction materials generate nearly one-third of global carbon emissions, yet conventional accounting captures only a fraction of this impact. Using EXIOBASE data spanning 25 years, we tracked emissions across construction supply chains for cement, steel, metals, and plastics. While global construction demand nearly tripled, regional patterns diverged significantly. The EU reduced emissions despite increased demand through renewable energy adoption and emissions trading, while China's construction boom—driving most global growth—significantly increased domestic emissions. Manufacturing contributes most to embodied emissions compared to resource extraction and waste treatment. Increased reliance on offshore production undermines domestic emission control strategies, highlighting the need for expanded carbon border adjustment mechanisms. Without policies addressing full supply chain emissions, even aggressive climate initiatives will be compromised by carbon leakage, creating an emissions trajectory incompatible with global climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs

Soil moisture is coupled with vegetation and atmosphere, influencing global cycling of water, carbon, and energy. However, it remains unclear how soil moisture-atmosphere interactions affect land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges simultaneously. Using Earth system model experiments, we show widespread carbon-water trade-offs between net ecosystem production and precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration driven by soil moisture dynamics. Soil moisture positively controls net ecosystem production and negatively affects precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration, through direct soil water stress and indirect soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. While soil moisture variability magnifies the interannual variability of net ecosystem production, it moderates that of precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration over land. These opposing effects lead to a pronounced carbon-water trade-off, which originates from the interplay between carbon acquisition through photosynthesis and water extraction through evapotranspiration. This trade-off is projected to intensify in a warming and drying future, as soil moisture increasingly regulates carbon and water exchanges, posing a serious challenge to sustaining both terrestrial carbon sink and water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Divergence in heritable life history traits suggests potential for local adaptation and trade‐offs associated with a coal ash disposal site

Abstract Globally, human activities have resulted in rapid environmental changes that present unique challenges for wildlife. However, investigations of local adaptation in response to simultaneous exposure to multiple anthropogenic selection pressures are rare and often generate conflicting results. We used an in situ reciprocal transplant design within a quantitative genetic framework to examine how adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity contribute to the persistence of an amphibian population inhabiting an environment characterized by high levels of multiple toxic trace elements. We found evidence of phenotypic divergence that is largely consistent with local adaptation to an environment contaminated with multiple chemical stressors, tied to potential trade‐offs in the absence of contaminants. Specifically, the population derived from the contaminated environment had a reduced risk of mortality and greater larval growth and in the contaminated environment, relative to offspring from the naïve population. Further, while survival in the uncontaminated environment was not compromised in offspring from the contaminant‐exposed population, they did show delayed development and reduced growth rates over larval development, relative to the naïve population. We found no evidence of reduced additive genetic variation in the contaminant‐exposed population, suggesting long‐term selection in a novel environment has not reduced the evolutionary potential of that population. We also saw little evidence that past selection in the ASH environment had reduced trait plasticity in the resident population. Maternal effects were prominent in early development, but we did not detect any trends suggesting these effects were associated with the maternal transfer of toxic trace elements. Our results demonstrate the potential for adaptation to multiple contaminants in a wild amphibian population, which may have facilitated long‐term persistence in a heavily impacted environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Clean Energy Manufacturing: Renewable Energy Technology Benchmarks

The manufacturing of clean energy technologies has become a global enterprise. An analysis of four clean energy technology manufacturing processes—wind turbine components, crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic modules, light-duty vehicle lithium-ion battery cells, and light-emitting diodes—was conducted to provide a reference point for comparison over time as this sector evolves. The manufacturing supply chain analysis included processing of raw materials, making required subcomponents, and assembling final products, using benchmarks that crossed 12 economies: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, South Korea, Republic of China (Taiwan), the United Kingdom, and the United States. Larger economies, with extensive manufacturing supply chains and high prevailing wages, tend to retain more value added from clean energy manufacturing than small economies. Manufacturing of clean energy technologies drives extensive trade among economies to support the widely distributed supply chain links. Production of wind turbine components and photovoltaic modules is more centralized than production of light-emitting diodes and lithium-ion battery cells. Across the four clean energy technologies evaluated, there was generally an excess of manufacturing capacity relative to global supply.

benchmarks↗

Trade-Offs Between Growth Rate and Other Fungal Traits

If we better understand how fungal responses to global change are governed by their traits, we can improve predictions of fungal community composition and ecosystem function. Specifically, we can examine trade-offs among traits, in which the allocation of finite resources toward one trait reduces the investment in others. We hypothesized that trade-offs among fungal traits relating to rapid growth, resource capture, and stress tolerance sort fungal species into discrete life history strategies. We used the Biolog Filamentous Fungi database to calculate maximum growth rates of 37 fungal species and then compared them to their functional traits from the fun fun database. In partial support of our hypothesis, maximum growth rate displayed a negative relationship with traits related to resource capture. Moreover, maximum growth rate displayed a positive relationship with amino acid permease, forming a putative Fast Growth life history strategy. A second putative life history strategy is characterized by a positive relationship between extracellular enzymes, including cellobiohydrolase 6, cellobiohydrolase 7, crystalline cellulase AA9, and lignin peroxidase. These extracellular enzymes were negatively related to chitosanase 8, an enzyme that can break down a derivative of chitin. Chitosanase 8 displayed a positive relationship with many traits that were hypothesized to cluster separately, forming a putative Blended life history strategy characterized by certain resource capture, fast growth, and stress tolerance traits. These trait relationships complement previously explored microbial trait frameworks, such as the Competitor-Stress Tolerator-Ruderal and the Yield-Resource Acquisition-Stress Tolerance schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigating Extremist Maritime Threats to Radiological Material Transport Vessels

The 21st century has experienced a rise in the threat of global radicalism and extremist organizations, and there has been oft-reported interest from these groups in obtaining or exploiting radiological materials. The threat of extremists acquiring radiological materials while in transit or sabotaging a transport vessel carrying materials at sea is one that requires increased attention. Transport is already one of the most vulnerable times for any cargo but including the difficulties in securing a large ship on the open ocean makes oceanic transport of radiological materials a space of elevated vulnerability for sabotage, theft, or other attacks. The risks of violent extremist attacks on trade ships and trading routes are serious, as shipping routes sustain the global economy, but an attack on a radiological transport vessel could be a magnitude worse, impacting national and international security. While radicalists have largely remained on land in the past due to minimal maritime expertise or inability to project power out of their immediate vicinity, the world has witnessed past attacks on ships such as the USS Cole and the MV Limburg and it is likely only a matter of time before groups extend further into the sea and engage in more maritime campaigns against material transport vessels. This paper suggests methods for increasing safety and security on oceanic transport voyages through behavioral science principles and insider threat recognition training, as well as a better understanding of adversarial and extremist psychology. By providing transport personnel with the knowledge and support to identify and respond to unique maritime threats by extremists, these principles and training suggestions should advance and increase security on the high seas.

Kinney, Justin↗

Trade-offs among restored ecosystem functions are context-dependent in Mediterranean-type regions

Global biodiversity hotspots, including Mediterranean-type ecosystems worldwide, are highly threatened by global change that alters biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. Some restoration activities enhance ecosystem functions by reintroducing plant species based on known relationships between plant traits and ecosystem processes. Achieving multiple functions across different site conditions, however, requires understanding how abiotic factors like climate and soil, along with plant assemblages, influence ecosystem functions, including their trade-offs and synergies. We used the ModEST ecosystem simulation model, which integrates carbon, water, and nutrient processes with plant traits, to assess the relationships between restored plant assemblages and ecosystem functions in Mediterranean-type climates and soils. We investigated whether maximised carbon increment, water use efficiency, and nitrogen use efficiency, along with their trade-offs and synergies, varied across different abiotic contexts. Further, we asked whether assemblages that maximised functions varied across environments and among these functions. We found that maximised ecosystem carbon increment and nitrogen use efficiency occurred under moist, warm conditions, while water use efficiency peaked under drier conditions. Generally, the assemblage that maximised one function differed from those for other maximised functions. Synergies were rare, except between water and nitrogen use efficiencies in loam soils across most climates. Trade-offs among maximised functions were common, varying in strength with abiotic context and plant assemblages, and were more pronounced in sandy loam soils compared to clay-rich soils. Our findings suggest that due to variation in abiotic conditions within and across Mediterranean-type regions at the global scale, site-specific plant assemblages are required to maximise ecosystem functions. Thus, lessons from a single site cannot be transferred to another site, even where the same plant functional types are available for restoration. Our simulation results offer valuable insights into potential ecosystem performance under specific abiotic conditions following restoration with particular plant functional types, thereby informing local restoration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals

Bioenergy aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to meeting global climate change mitigation targets. Nevertheless, several sustainability concerns are associated with bioenergy, especially related to the impacts of using land for dedicated energy crop production. Cultivating energy crops can result in synergies or trade-offs between GHG emission reductions and other sustainability effects depending on context-specific conditions. Using the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, the main synergies and trade-offs associated with land use for dedicated energy crop production were identified. Furthermore, the context-specific conditions (i.e., biomass feedstock, previous land use, climate, soil type and agricultural management) which affect those synergies and trade-offs were also identified. The most recent literature was reviewed and a pairwise comparison between GHG emission reduction (SDG 13) and other SDGs was carried out. A total of 427 observations were classified as either synergy (170), trade-off (176), or no effect (81). Most synergies with environmentally-related SDGs, such as water quality and biodiversity conservation, were observed when perennial crops were produced on arable land, pasture or marginal land in the ‘cool temperate moist’ climate zone and ‘high activity clay’ soils. Most trade-offs were related to food security and water availability. Previous land use and feedstock type are more impactful in determining synergies and trade-offs than climatic zone and soil type. This study highlights the importance of considering context-specific conditions in evaluating synergies and trade-offs and their relevance for developing appropriate policies and practices to meet worldwide demand for bioenergy in a sustainable manner.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Joint optimization of land carbon uptake and albedo can help achieve moderate instantaneous and long-term cooling effects

Abstract Both carbon dioxide uptake and albedo of the land surface affect global climate. However, climate change mitigation by increasing carbon uptake can cause a warming trade-off by decreasing albedo, with most research focusing on afforestation and its interaction with snow. Here, we present carbon uptake and albedo observations from 176 globally distributed flux stations. We demonstrate a gradual decline in maximum achievable annual albedo as carbon uptake increases, even within subgroups of non-forest and snow-free ecosystems. Based on a paired-site permutation approach, we quantify the likely impact of land use on carbon uptake and albedo. Shifting to the maximum attainable carbon uptake at each site would likely cause moderate net global warming for the first approximately 20 years, followed by a strong cooling effect. A balanced policy co-optimizing carbon uptake and albedo is possible that avoids warming on any timescale, but results in a weaker long-term cooling effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenges and Opportunities for the Development of Commercial Maritime Surface Vessel Nuclear Propulsion (CMNP)

Maritime transport and trade are currently responsible for producing nearly 1 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions annually, representing 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. While maritime shipping is acknowledged as the most efficient carrier of goods in terms of its costs and carbon intensity, the sector relies overwhelmingly on the use of heavy fuel oil (HFO). This fuel source currently is unmatched in terms of its global availability, safety, security of supply, price, and energy density. Combined, these characteristics are responsible for the outsized contribution of the sector to the global economy: roughly 90% of all transported goods spend time at sea. Commercial maritime nuclear propulsion provides opportunities to transition maritime trade to clean energy but also comes with challenges. Both are covered in this report based on 60+ interviews with professionals from the maritime and nuclear energy sectors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗