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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Modeled Results of Four Residential Energy Efficiency Measure Packages for Deriving Advanced Building Construction Research Targets

The Advanced Building Construction (ABC) Initiative from the U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Office is working to accelerate industrialized construction innovations for decarbonizing buildings. To inform performance and cost targets for research under the ABC Initiative, this analysis used the ResStock™ tool to evaluate the energy savings, utility bill impacts, and carbon emissions impacts of four simulated upgrade packages with specific target performance levels on a large sample of residential dwelling units (approximately 550,000) representative of the U.S. housing stock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Space Heating Options on Electricity Rates and Affordability

Electricity prices have increased in many regions of the U.S., with a national average of 18 cents/kWh projected for 2026, up from 16 cents/kWh in 2020. While the increases can be attributed to a number of factors, increasing electricity use in an efficient and strategic manner - with energy efficient building envelope upgrades and high performance HVAC systems - has the potential to increase revenue for utilities without significantly increasing electricity demand, and therefore could help moderate rate increases. This effect has been studied for electric vehicle charging[1] and dual-fuel heat pumps in Minnesota[2]. Leveraging a recently developed system cost methodology and FERC data on utility revenue, spending, and profits, this poster will present the direction and relative magnitude of rate impacts for efficient space heating upgrades in utility balancing areas across the contiguous U.S., using current prices and showing how the rate impacts would evolve under future grid scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Building Demand Flexibility: Grid Service Value of Future Market Entrants

The building sector is an important source of demand-side flexibility that is crucial for renewable energy integration in the future power systems. The grid service value of building flexibility, especially that which provides load shifting, has not been analyzed for the United States. We use a technology-agnostic approach based on detailed grid expansion and production cost modeling results to evaluate the capacity, energy, and ancillary service values of a marginal kilowatt-hour (kWh) of daily, shiftable building flexibility as a presumed market entrant in the 2030 U.S. power systems. We find the monthly mean of building flexibility has a range of 0-38 cents/kWh-day, depending on the original usage hour, month, region, building flexibility parameters, and grid scenario. The daily value consists of the highest-value hour each day across all the scenarios has a range of 0-620 cents/kWh-day. The results are provided in an open database for users to obtain the values of specific technologies based on what services can be provided, when, and in what quantities.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining CO2 Electrolysis with Biological Upgrading to Fuels and Chemicals: Turning Waste into Fuels

The utilization of flue gas-derived CO2 presents an opportunity to enhance carbon utilization in the bioethanol industry, contributing to the production of valuable products. In the context of a 90 million-gallon-per-year corn ethanol plant generating approximately 30 tons per hour of 99% pure CO2, a collaborative effort involving six national laboratories has been established. This initiative, known as the CO2 Reduction and Upgrading for e-Fuels (CO2RUe) Consortium, is funded by the Department of Energy's BioEnergy Technologies Office (BETO). The primary objective of the CO2RUe Consortium is to explore innovative approaches to harness CO2 as a valuable feedstock. This interdisciplinary consortium integrates electrochemistry with biological upgrading techniques, aiming to yield sustainable, value-added products and aviation fuels. The presentation will delve into the recent advancements in the realms of electrochemistry and biological upgrading, with a specific focus on formic acid and CO. Additionally, the talk will include an analysis of future electricity grid scenarios, technoeconomic evaluations, and life-cycle assessments. These assessments aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of various conversion pathways on both cost and carbon intensity. The CO2RUe Consortium is at the forefront of steering the development of economically favorable and sustainable processes for CO2 utilization. The presentation will showcase the consortium's progress in driving the advancement of technology and processes, emphasizing the economic viability and sustainability of CO2 utilization within the broader context of the bioethanol industry.

biological upgrading↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning

This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning: Preprint

This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Practical Implementation of GPU-based Computing at the Grid Edge for Resilience Scenarios

This paper presents a practical implementation of GPU-accelerated computing at the grid edge to enhance power system resilience through next-generation smart meters. Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) systems rely predominantly on centralized processing architectures, which limit real-time response capabilities during grid disturbances. This work proposes the integration of GPU-enabled computational platforms directly within smart meter to enable local execution support for power system analytics, fault detection algorithms, and optimization routines. The proposed framework uses the Julia programming language to leverage highperformance parallel computing capabilities while maintaining code portability and development efficiency. We use two experimental scenarios to benchmark the computational feasibility of this approach: sparse linear system solutions representative of power flow analyses, and multi-stage production cost simulations incorporating unit commitment and economic dispatch operations. Results demonstrate that computationally intensive power system algorithms, such as those supporting resilience scenario calculations, can be effectively executed at the distribution edge using commercially available embedded GPU hardware. Keywords—GPU acceleration, edge computing, smart meters, grid resilience, AMI, resilience.

De Souza, Reubun [School of Electrical Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grid Cyber-Security Strategy in an Attacker-Defender Model

The progression of cyber-attacks on the cyber-physical system is analyzed by the Probabilistic, Learning Attacker, and Dynamic Defender (PLADD) model. Although our research does apply to all cyber-physical systems, we focus on power grid infrastructure. The PLADD model evaluates the effectiveness of moving target defense (MTD) techniques. We consider the power grid attack scenarios in the AND configurations and OR configurations. In addition, we consider, for the first time ever, power grid attack scenarios involving both AND configurations and OR configurations simultaneously. Cyber-security managers can use the strategy introduced in this manuscript to optimize their defense strategies. Specifically, our research provides insight into when to reset access controls (such as passwords, internet protocol addresses, and session keys), to minimize the probability of a successful attack. Our mathematical proof for the OR configuration of multiple PLADD games shows that it is best if all access controls are reset simultaneously. For the AND configuration, our mathematical proof shows that it is best (in terms of minimizing the attacker's average probability of success) that the resets are equally spaced apart. We introduce a novel concept called hierarchical parallel PLADD system to cover additional attack scenarios that require combinations of AND and OR configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Circular economy pathways for decarbonizing aluminum and steel automotive body sheet components in the United States

Decarbonizing vehicle production is essential to reducing automotive sector emissions. This study quantifies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aluminum and steel auto-body sheet components produced in the US. It evaluates the effectiveness of circular economy (CE) strategies (greater closed-loop recycling of pre-consumer scrap, post-consumer scrap, and increased manufacturing yields) to reduce supply chain emissions across different process technology and electricity grid decarbonization pathways. We combine dynamic material flow analysis (2025–2050) with cradle-to-gate life-cycle modeling to assess production emissions and the potential reductions associated with the CE strategies under frozen, moderate, and aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenarios. Current emissions intensities are estimated at approximately 12.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of aluminum and 4.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of steel sheet embedded in the vehicle. Under the frozen decarbonization scenario and current levels of circularity, annual emissions attributable to US aluminum and steel auto-body sheet supply chains could rise by 54 % and 18 % respectively by 2050. Rapid deployment of the CE strategies can cut these annual emissions in 2050 by 52 % for aluminum and 44 % for steel. However, scrap quality constraints lead to saturation points, limiting these benefits unless addressed. Aggressive deployment of low-carbon production technologies and a low-carbon grid reduces the relative benefit of implementing the CE strategies; however, even under the aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenario, the CE strategies reduce annual emissions by a further 23 %-54 % by 2050. These findings highlight the urgent need to integrate CE strategies into the sheet metal supply chain to support decarbonization efforts and help meet climate targets.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selecting Critical Scenarios of DER Adoption in Distribution Grids Using Bayesian Optimization

We develop a new methodology to select scenarios of DER adoption most critical for distribution grids. Anticipating risks of future voltage and line flow violations due to additional PV adopters is central for utility investment planning but continues to rely on deterministic or ad hoc scenario selection. We propose a highly efficient search framework based on multi-objective Bayesian Optimization. We treat underlying grid stress metrics as computationally expensive black-box functions, approximated via Gaussian Process surrogates and design an acquisition function based on probability of scenarios being Pareto-critical across a collection of line- and bus-based violation objectives. Our approach provides a statistical guarantee and offers an order of magnitude speed-up relative to a conservative exhaustive search. Case studies on realistic feeders with 200-400 buses demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our approach.

Mulkin, Olivier↗
DOE OSTI2024

test-grid-buildouts [SWR-23-112]

Test-grid-buildouts is a set of notebooks for creating buildouts of synthetic transmission grids with various levels of renewable energy. Workflows can be used to augment various test grid with varying levels of wind/solar generation. Aggregated renewable energy time series (actuals and scenarios) at grid buses can then be used for various transmission grid operation problems. Highly customizable workflow consists of parsing of synthetic grid files, setting up SAM & reV simulations, application of exclusion masks, creating of custom renewable generators on the grid, aggregating of power time series, and writing of modified grid description files.

Satkauskas, Ignas↗
NASA NTRS2010

Simulation of a Lunar Surface Base Power Distribution Network for the Constellation Lunar Surface Systems

The Lunar Surface Power Distribution Network Study team worked to define, breadboard, build and test an electrical power distribution system consistent with NASA's goal of providing electrical power to sustain life and power equipment used to explore the lunar surface. A testbed was set up to simulate the connection of different power sources and loads together to form a mini-grid and gain an understanding of how the power systems would interact. Within the power distribution scheme, each power source contributes to the grid in an independent manner without communication among the power sources and without a master-slave scenario. The grid consisted of four separate power sources and the accompanying power conditioning equipment. Overall system design and testing was performed. The tests were performed to observe the output and interaction of the different power sources as some sources are added and others are removed from the grid connection. The loads on the system were also varied from no load to maximum load to observe the power source interactions.

Mintz, Toby↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Grid-Renewable Strategies for Green Steel Production under Electricity Market Uncertainty

Volatility in grid spot prices is expected to rise with climate change-driven demand pressures and the intermittency of renewable generation. This volatility poses financial risks for green hydrogen-based steel production. The Direct Reduced Iron− Electric Arc Furnace (H 2 -DRI-EAF) is a promising pathway to decarbonize steel, which accounts for ∼8% of global GHG emissions. This study assesses how increased grid spot price volatility influences the optimal sizing and operation of H2-DRIEAF plants under three operational scenarios: grid-connected, fully behind-the-meter (islanded), and mixed-mode (semi-islanded). Our analysis identifies the semi-islanded configuration as the most cost-effective solution, achieving a Levelized Cost of Steel (LCOS) 10−35% lower than sourcing energy solely from the grid. Modeling also shows hydrogen storage or selective electricity purchases at high prices (>$1000/MWh) generally outperform battery storage, except under extreme volatility. Additionally, the study explores cost reduction strategies to strengthen the economic viability and sustainability of green steel production.

Batteries↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial Impacts of Electric Vehicle Charging on Power Grid Stability: A Downtown Atlanta Case Study

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) charging demand poses a potential risk to power grid stability, particularly as the spatial distribution of this demand remains underexplored. Existing research often focuses on technical optimization models while overlooking the geographic and human dynamics that affect energy consumption. This study addresses this gap by incorporating mobility data to estimate both building energy use and EV charging demand while also considering geographic factors for a better understanding of grid load. Using agent-based simulations and the Open-Source Distribution System Simulator, the study evaluates the effect of various EV penetration scenarios on grid voltage and unbalance. The results show that, although voltage remains within acceptable limits at lower EV penetration rates, significant voltage drop and unbalance occur as EV penetration exceeds 40%, particularly in residential areas with high charging demand. This study offers a framework for integrating spatial analysis and mobility data in power network simulations, providing insights for future EV infrastructure planning.

Pan, Melrose [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031627448X)↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Two-Step Restoration Scheme with DER Controllability for Resilient Distribution Systems

Modern distribution systems have increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). A large number of distribution system DERs are interfaced through a power electronic converter. During grid contingency scenarios these resources have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid's restoration after an adverse event and hence enhancing resilience. In distribution systems, system restoration is an important problem, especially in face of high-impact low-frequency events. This paper proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in DERs for mitigating voltage problems. Simulation studies are performed on the IEEE-123 node feeder system to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for various cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗