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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Rising Water Levels and Vegetation Shifts Drive Substantial Reductions in Methane Emissions and Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Great Lakes Coastal Freshwater Wetland

ABSTRACT Coastal freshwater wetlands are critical ecosystems for both local and global carbon cycles, sequestering substantial carbon while also emitting methane (CH 4 ) due to anoxic conditions. Estuarine freshwater wetlands face unique challenges from fluctuating water levels, which influence water quality, vegetation, and carbon cycling. However, the response of CH 4 fluxes and their drivers to altered hydrology and vegetation remains unclear, hindering mechanistic modeling. To address these knowledge gaps, we studied an estuarine freshwater wetland in the Great Lakes region, where rising water levels led to a vegetation shift from emergent Typha dominance in 2015–2016 to floating‐leaved species in 2020–2022. Using eddy covariance flux measurements during the peak growing season (June–September) of both periods, we observed a 60% decrease in CH 4 emissions, from 81 ± 4 g C m −2 in 2015–2016 to 31 ± 3 g C m −2 in 2020–2022. This decline was driven by two main factors: (1) higher water levels, which suppressed ebullitive fluxes via increased hydrostatic pressure and extended CH 4 residence time, enhancing oxidation potential in the water column; and (2) reduced CH 4 conductance through plants. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) uptake decreased by 90%, from −267 ± 26 g C m −2 in 2015–2016 to −27 ± 49 g C m −2 in 2020–2022. Additionally, diel CH 4 flux patterns shifted, with a distinct morning peak observed in 2015–2016 but absent in 2020–2022, suggesting changes in plant‐mediated transport and a potential decoupling from photosynthesis. The dominant factors influencing CH 4 fluxes shifted from water temperature and gross primary productivity in 2015–2016 to atmospheric pressure in 2020–2022, suggesting an increased role of ebullition as a primary transport pathway. Our results demonstrate that changes in water levels and vegetation can substantially alter CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes in coastal freshwater wetlands, underscoring the critical role of hydrological shifts in driving carbon dynamics in these ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonstationarity in the global terrestrial water cycle and its interlinkages in the Anthropocene

Climate change and human activities alter the global freshwater cycle, causing nonstationary processes as its distribution shifting over time, yet a comprehensive understanding of these changes remains elusive. Here, we develop a remote sensing–informed terrestrial reanalysis and assess the nonstationarity of and interconnections among global water cycle components from 2003 to 2020. We highlight 20 hotspot regions where terrestrial water storage exhibits strong nonstationarity, impacting 35% of the global population and 45% of the area covered by irrigated agriculture. Emerging long-term trends dominate the most often (48.2%), followed by seasonal shifts (32.8%) and changes in extremes (19%). Notably, in mid-latitudes, this encompasses 34% of Asia and 27% of North America. The patterns of nonstationarity and their dominant types differ across other water cycle components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and gross primary production. These differences also manifest uniquely across hotspot regions, illustrating the intricate ways in which each component responds to climate change and human water management. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering nonstationarity when assessing water cycle information toward the development of strategies for sustainable water resource usage, enhancing resilience to extreme events, and effectively addressing other challenges associated with climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of a Regional Drought on Land and Atmospheric Carbon over the North America

The spatiotemporal extent of a regional drought’s impact on land-atmosphere carbon and their mechanistic linkages are still poorly understood. Allowing carbon-water-energy feedback in an ensemble of coupled land-atmosphere simulations, this study quantifies induced changes in meteorology and carbon caused by an idealized 3-month meteorological drought over to the lower Mississippi River Valley (~500,000 km2). The imposed drought leads to a 23% Gross Primary Production (GPP) reduction in the drought area and the GPP reductions in some remote areas that are adjacent to the imposed drought through the changes in remote meteorology, particularly by the induced precipitation. The effect of the meteorological anomalies on GPP is greater, by at least an order of magnitude, than that of the atmospheric CO2 anomalies. While the magnitude of induced CO2 anomalies near the land surface can be as large as 3.57ppm, the column-averaged CO2 increases up to 0.78ppm and thus is below the precision limit (~1ppm) of current greenhouse gas (GHG) observing satellites. Spatially, the CO2 anomalies cover an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that the atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of carbon anomalies in the atmosphere.

Eunjee Lee↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

Ding, Junyan [Occidental College, Los Angeles, CA ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoupling of greenness and gross primary productivity as aridity decreases

Ecosystem primary productivity is a key ecological process influencing many ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Thus, clarifying how primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystems responds to climatic variability can reveal key mechanisms that will drive future changes in the global carbon budget. Satellite products of canopy greenness are widely used as proxies for vegetation productivity to evaluate how ecosystems respond to climate variability. However, to what degree inter-annual variations in productivity are consistent with greenness and how this relationship varies spatially remains unclear. Here we investigated the strength of the coupling between inter-annual variations in leaf area index (LAI, a measure of greenness) and ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from eddy covariance towers, i.e., the r2 of the LAI-GPP relationship. Overall, inter-annual GPP and LAI were highly coupled (i.e., high r2) in arid grasslands, but were fully decoupled in mesic evergreen broadleaf forests, indicating that this relationship varies strongly along aridity gradients. A possible mechanism of the spatial variation in the LAI-GPP relationship is that the tradeoff between ecosystem structure (LAI) and physiology (photosynthesis per unit leaf area) becomes stronger in more humid climates. Land models overestimated the r2 of LAI-GPP correlation for most ecosystem types and failed to capture the spatial pattern along aridity gradients. We conclude that relying on greenness products for evaluating inter-annual changes in vegetation productivity may bias assessments, especially in tropical rainforest ecosystems. Our findings may also reconcile observed disparities between responses in greenness and GPP during drought in Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accounting for Changes in Radiation Improves the Ability of SIF to Track Water Stress-Induced Losses in Summer GPP in a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Global observations of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) are available from multiple satellite platforms, and SIF is increasingly used as a proxy for photosynthetic activity and ecosystem productivity. Because the relationship between SIF and gross primary productivity (GPP) depends on a variety of factors including ecosystem type and environmental conditions, it is necessary to study SIF observations across various spatiotemporal scales and ecosystems. To explore how SIF signals relate to productivity over a temperate deciduous forest, we deployed a PhotoSpec spectrometer system at the University of Michigan Biological Station AmeriFlux site (US-UMB) in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan during the 2018 and 2019 growing seasons. We found that SIF correlated with GPP across diurnal and seasonal cycles (R 2 = 0.61 and 0.64 for 90-min- and daily-averaged data), but that SIF signals were more strongly related to downwelling radiation than GPP (R 2 = 0.91 for daily-averaged data). The dependence of SIF on radiation obscured the impact of intraseasonal drought in the SIF timeseries, but drought stress was apparent as a decrease in relative SIF, which exhibited a stronger correlation with GPP (R 2 = 0.56) than other remotely sensed data over the drought period. These results highlight the potential of SIF for detecting stress-induced losses in forest productivity. Additionally, we found that the red:far-red SIF ratio did not exhibit a response to water stress-induced losses in productivity, but was largely driven by seasonal and interannual changes in canopy structure, as well as by synoptic changes in downwelling radiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utility of near‐surface phenology in estimating productivity and evapotranspiration across diverse ecosystems

Abstract Agroecosystems, which include row crops, pasture, and grass and shrub grazing lands, are sensitive to changes in management, weather, and genetics. To better understand how these systems are responding to changes, we need to improve monitoring and modeling carbon and water dynamics. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are commonly used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), but these empirical relationships are often location and crop specific. There is a need to evaluate if VIs can be effective and, more general, predictors of ecosystem processes through time and across different agroecosystems. Near‐surface photographic (red‐green‐blue) images from PhenoCam can be used to calculate the VI green chromatic coordinate (G CC ) and offer a pathway to improve understanding of field‐scale relationships between VIs and GPP and ET. We synthesized observations spanning 76 site‐years across 15 agroecosystem sites with PhenoCam G CC and GPP or ET estimates from eddy covariance (EC) to quantify interannual variability (IAV) in the relationship between GPP and ET and G CC across. We uncovered a high degree of variability in the strength and slopes of the G CC ∼ GPP and ET relationships (R 2 = 0.1 ‐ 0.9) within and across production systems. Overall, G CC is a better predictor of GPP than ET (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.54, respectively), performing best in croplands (R 2 = 0.91). Shrub‐dominated systems exhibit the lowest predictive power of G CC for GPP and ET but have less IAV in slope. We propose that PhenoCam estimates of G CC could provide an alternative approach for predictions of ecosystem processes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Partitioning Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of CO 2 Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF)

Accurate partitioning of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) is crucial for understanding carbon cycle dynamics under changing climate. However, it remains as a long-standing problem in global ecology due to lack of independent constraining information for the two offsetting component fluxes. solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a mechanistic proxy for photosynthesis, holds great promise to improve NEE partitioning by constraining GPP. We developed a parsimonious SIF-based approach for NEE partitioning and examined its performance using synthetic simulations and field measurements. This approach outperforms conventional approaches in reproducing simulated GPP and R eco , especially under high vapor pressure deficit. For field measurements, it results in lower daytime GPP and R eco than conventional approaches. Furthermore, this study made the first attempt to demonstrate SIF's potential for improving NEE partitioning accuracy and sets the stage for future efforts to examine its robustness and scalability under real-world environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century

Terrestrial vegetation removes CO 2 from the atmosphere; an important climate regulation service that slows global warming. This 119 Pg C per annum transfer of CO 2 into plants—gross primary productivity (GPP)—is the largest land carbon flux globally. While understanding past and anticipated future GPP changes is necessary to support carbon management, the factors driving long-term changes in GPP are largely unknown. In this study, we show that 1901 to 2010 changes in GPP have been dominated by anthropogenic activity. Our dual constraint attribution approach provides three insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP change. First, anthropogenic controls on GPP change have increased from 57% (1901 decade) to 94% (2001 decade) of the vegetated land surface. Second, CO 2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition are the most important drivers of change, 19.8 and 11.1 Pg C per annum (2001 decade) respectively, especially in the tropics and industrialized areas since the 1970’s. Third, changes in climate have functioned as fertilization to enhance GPP (1.4 Pg C per annum in the 2001 decade). These findings suggest that, from a land carbon balance perspective, the Anthropocene began over 100 years ago and that global change drivers have allowed GPP uptake to keep pace with anthropogenic emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-biome synthesis of source versus sink limits to tree growth

Uncertainties surrounding tree carbon allocation to growth are a major limitation to projections of forest carbon sequestration and response to climate change. The prevalence and extent to which carbon assimilation (source) or cambial activity (sink) mediate wood production are fundamentally important and remain elusive. We quantified source-sink relations across biomes by combining eddy-covariance gross primary production with extensive on-site and regional tree ring observations. We found widespread temporal decoupling between carbon assimilation and tree growth, underpinned by contrasting climatic sensitivities of these two processes. Substantial differences in assimilation-growth decoupling between angiosperms and gymnosperms were determined, as well as stronger decoupling with canopy closure, aridity, and decreasing temperatures. Our results reveal pervasive sink control over tree growth that is likely to be increasingly prominent under global climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Diurnal and Seasonal Dynamics of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Vegetation Indices, and Gross Primary Productivity in the Boreal Forest

Remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a powerful proxy for gross primary productivity (GPP). It is particularly promising in boreal ecosystems where seasonal downregulation of photosynthesis occurs without significant changes in canopy structure or chlorophyll content. The use of SIF as a proxy for GPP is complicated by inherent non-linearities due to both physical (illumination effects) and ecophysiological (light use efficiencies) controls at fine spatial (tower/leaf) and temporal (half-hourly) scales. Here, to study the SIF-GPP relationship, we investigated the diurnal and seasonal dynamics of continuous tower-based measurements of SIF, GPP, and common vegetation indices at the Southern Old Black Spruce Site (SOBS) in Saskatchewan, CA over the course of two years. We find that SIF outperforms other vegetation indices as a proxy for GPP at all temporal scales but shows a non-linear relationship with GPP at a half-hourly resolution. At small temporal scales, SIF and GPP are predominantly driven by light and non-linearity between SIF and GPP is due to the light saturation of GPP. Averaged over daily and monthly scales, the relationship between SIF and GPP is linear due to a reduction in the observed PAR range. Seasonal changes in the light responses of SIF and GPP are driven by changes in light use efficiency which co-vary with changes in temperature, while illumination and canopy structure partially linearize the SIF-GPP relationship. Additionally, we find that the SIF-GPP relationship has a seasonal dependency. Our results help clarify the utility of SIF for estimating carbon assimilation in boreal forests.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

On the Relationship Between Sub-Daily Instantaneous and Daily Total Gross Primary Production: Implications for Interpreting Satellite-Based SIF Retrievals

Spatially and temporally continuous estimation of plant photosynthetic carbon fixation (or gross primary production, GPP) is crucial to our understanding of the global carbon cycle and the impact of climate change. Besides spatial, seasonal and interannual variations, GPP also exhibits strong diurnal variations. Satellite retrieved solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a spatially continuous, but temporally discrete measurement of plant photosynthesis, and has the potential to be used to estimate GPP at global scale. However, it remains unclear whether the seasonal time series of SIF snapshots taken at a fixed time of the day can be used to infer daily total GPP variation at spatial and seasonal scales. In this study, we first used GPP estimates from 135 eddy covariance flux sites, covering a wide range of geographic locations and biome types, to investigate the relationship between the instantaneous GPP (GPP(sub inst)) and daily GPP (GPP(sub daily)) on the seasonal course for different times of the day. Latitudinal and diurnal patterns were found to correspond to variations in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and light use efficiency (LUE), respectively. We then used the Soil-Canopy Observation Photosynthesis and Energy Balance (SCOPE) model and the FluxCom GPP product to investigate the instantaneous and daily SIF-GPP relationships at five flux tower sites along a latitudinal gradient and at a global scale for different biome types. The results showed that daily SIF had a stronger linear correlation with daily GPP than instantaneous SIF at the seasonal scale, with an instantaneous to daily SIF conversion factor following the latitudinal and seasonal pattern driven by PAR. Our study highlights the necessity to take the latitudinal and diurnal factors into consideration for SIF-GPP relationship analyses or for physiological phenology analyses based on SIF.

photosynthesis model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using phenology to unravel differential soil water use and productivity in a semiarid savanna

Savannas are water-limited ecosystems characterized by two dominant plant types: trees and an understory primarily made up grass. Different phenology and root structures of these plant types complicate how savanna primary productivity responds to changes in water availability. We tested the hypothesis that productivity in savannas is controlled by the temporal and vertical distribution of soil water content (SWC) and differences in growing season length of understory and tree plant functional types. To quantify the relationship between tree, understory, and savanna-wide phenology and productivity, we used PhenoCam and satellite observations surrounding an eddy covariance tower at a semiarid savanna site in Arizona, USA. We distinguished between SWC across two different depth intervals (shallow, <0–30 cm and deep, >30–100 cm). We found that tree greenness increased with SWC at both depths, while understory greenness was only sensitive to the shallower SWC measurements. Onset of ecosystem dormancy, estimated from satellite observations close to the eddy covariance tower, explained more variability in annual gross primary productivity (GPP) than in other phenometrics. Higher SWC led to an extended growing season, caused by delayed dormancy in trees, but the understory showed no evidence of delayed dormancy in wetter periods. We infer that the timing of ecosystem scale dormancy, driven by trees, is important in understanding changes in a savanna's GPP. These findings highlight the important effects of rainfall during the winter. These findings suggest that savanna GPP is conditional on different responses to moisture availability in each of the dominant vegetation components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the basis for vegetation growth and drives the land carbon cycle. Accurately simulating gross primary production (GPP, ecosystem-level apparent photosynthesis) is key for satellite monitoring and Earth system model predictions under climate change. While robust models exist for describing leaf-level photosynthesis, predictions diverge due to uncertain photosynthetic traits and parameters which vary on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we describe and evaluate a GPP (photosynthesis per unit ground area) model, the P-model, that combines the Farquhar–von Caemmerer–Berry model for C 3 photosynthesis with an optimality principle for the carbon assimilation–transpiration trade-off, and predicts a multi-day average light use efficiency (LUE) for any climate and C 3 vegetation type. The model builds on the theory developed in Prentice et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2017a) and is extended to include low temperature effects on the intrinsic quantum yield and an empirical soil moisture stress factor. The model is forced with site-level data of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) and meteorological data and is evaluated against GPP estimates from a globally distributed network of ecosystem flux measurements. Although the P-model requires relatively few inputs, the R 2 for predicted versus observed GPP based on the full model setup is 0.75 (8 d mean, 126 sites) – similar to comparable satellite-data-driven GPP models but without predefined vegetation-type-specific parameters. The R 2 is reduced to 0.70 when not accounting for the reduction in quantum yield at low temperatures and effects of low soil moisture on LUE. The R 2 for the P-model-predicted LUE is 0.32 (means by site) and 0.48 (means by vegetation type). Applying this model for global-scale simulations yields a total global GPP of 106–122 Pg C yr –1 (mean of 2001–2011), depending on the fAPAR forcing data. The P-model provides a simple but powerful method for predicting – rather than prescribing – light use efficiency and simulating terrestrial photosynthesis across a wide range of conditions. The model is available as an R package (rpmodel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fine resolution remote sensing spectra improves estimates of gross primary production of croplands

Gross primary production (GPP) is a fundamental measure of the terrestrial carbon cycle critical to our understanding of ecosystem function under the changing climate and land use. Remote sensing enables access to continuous spatial coverage, but remains challenged in heterogeneous croplands. Coarse resolution products, like MOD17A (500 m), may aggregate fragmented land cover types commonly found in heavily managed landscapes and misrepresent their respective contribution to carbon production. Consequently, this study demonstrates the capability of fine-resolution imagery (20-30 m) and available red-edge vegetation indices to characterize GPP across seven Midwest cropping systems. Four sites were established on a 22-year-old USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); and the other three on land conventionally farmed with corn-soybean-wheat rotation (AGR). We compare in situ GPP estimates from eddy-covariance towers with ten satellite models: eight variants of the vegetation photosynthesis models (VPM), of which five include a red-edge vegetation index, as well as conventional products Landsat CONUS GPP (30 m) and MOD17A2H V6 (500 m). Daily and cumulative fine-resolution imagery integrated within VPM generally agreed with tower-based GPP in heterogeneous landscapes more than those from MODIS 500 m VPM or conventional GPP products from MOD17AH V6 or Landsat 8 CONUS. Here, replacing EVI2 with red-edge indices NDRE2, NDRE1, and MTCI in Sentinel 2 VPMs notably improved explanation of variance and estimation of cumulative GPP. While existing methods using MODIS- and Landsat-derived GPP are important baselines for regional and global studies, future research may benefit from the higher spatial, temporal, and radiometric resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

A simple, mass balance model of carbon flow in a controlled ecological life support system

Internal cycling of chemical elements is a fundamental aspect of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). Mathematical models are useful tools for evaluating fluxes and reservoirs of elements associated with potential CELSS configurations. A simple mass balance model of carbon flow in CELSS was developed based on data from the CELSS Breadboard project at Kennedy Space Center. All carbon reservoirs and fluxes were calculated based on steady state conditions and modelled using linear, donor-controlled transfer coefficients. The linear expression of photosynthetic flux was replaced with Michaelis-Menten kinetics based on dynamical analysis of the model which found that the latter produced more adequate model output. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that accurate determination of the maximum rate of gross primary production is critical to the development of an accurate model of carbon flow. Atmospheric carbon dioxide was particularly sensitive to changes in photosynthetic rate. The small reservoir of CO2 relative to large CO2 fluxes increases the potential for volatility in CO2 concentration. Feedback control mechanisms regulating CO2 concentration will probably be necessary in a CELSS to reduce this system instability.

Garland, Jay L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal changes in GPP/SIF ratios and their climatic determinants across the Northern Hemisphere

Satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been increasingly used for estimating gross primary production (GPP). However, the relationship between SIF and GPP has not been well defined, impeding the translation of satellite observed SIF to GPP. Previous studies have generally assumed a linear relationship between SIF and GPP at daily and longer time scales, but support for this assumption is lacking. Here, we used the GPP/SIF ratio to investigate seasonal variations in the relationship between SIF and GPP over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Based on multiple SIF products and MODIS and FLUXCOM GPP data, we found strong seasonal hump-shaped patterns for the GPP/SIF ratio over northern latitudes, with higher values in the summer than in the spring or autumn. This hump-shaped GPP/SIF seasonal variation was confirmed by examining different SIF products and was evident for most vegetation types except evergreen broadleaf forests. The seasonal amplitude of the GPP/SIF ratio decreased from the boreal/arctic region to drylands and the tropics. For most of the NH, the lowest GPP/SIF values occurred in October or September, while the maximum GPP/SIF values were evident in June and July. The most pronounced seasonal amplitude of GPP/SIF occurred in intermediate temperature and precipitation ranges. GPP/SIF was positively related to temperature in the early and late parts of the growing season, but not during the peak growing months. These shifting relationships between temperature and GPP/SIF across different months appeared to play a key role in the seasonal dynamics of GPP/SIF. Several mechanisms may explain the patterns we observed, and future research encompassing a broad range of climate and vegetation settings is needed to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal relationships between SIF and GPP. Nonetheless, the strong seasonal variation in GPP/SIF we identified highlights the importance of incorporating this behavior into SIF-based GPP estimations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗