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At least 55 records · Page 3

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Turato, Barbara↗

The ongoing need for high-resolution regional climate models: Process understanding and stakeholder information

Regional climate modeling addresses our need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models. High resolution models are generally more skillful in simulating extremes, such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, and severe storms. In addition, research has shown that fine-scale features such as mountains, coastlines, lakes, irrigation, land use, and urban heat islands can substantially influence a region’s climate and its response to changing forcings. Regional climate simulations explicitly simulating convection are now being performed, providing an opportunity to illuminate new physical behavior that previously was represented by parameterizations with large uncertainties. Regional and global models are both advancing toward higher resolution, as computational capacity increases. However, the resolution and ensemble size necessary to produce a sufficient statistical sample of these processes in global models has proven too costly for contemporary supercomputing systems. Regional climate models are thus indispensable tools that complement global models for understanding regional climate variability and change, and are critical for supporting societal responses to changing climate.

Gutowski, William↗

Evidence of Mineral Dust Altering Cloud Microphysics and Precipitation

Multi-platform and multi-sensor observations are employed to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective systems. It is clearly evident that for a given convection strength,small hydrometeors were more prevalent in the stratiform rain regions with dust than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust sector, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation process of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the precipitation size spectrum from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately suppressing precipitation.

Min, Qilong↗

Changes in Stratiform Clouds of Mesoscale Convective Complex Introduced by Dust Aerosols

Aerosols influence the earth s climate through direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects. There are large uncertainties in quantifying these effects due to limited measurements and observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. As a major terrestrial source of atmospheric aerosols, dusts may serve as a significant climate forcing for the changing climate because of its effect on solar and thermal radiation as well as on clouds and precipitation processes. Latest satellites measurements enable us to determine dust aerosol loadings and cloud distributions and can potentially be used to reduce the uncertainties in the estimations of aerosol effects on climate. This study uses sensors on various satellites to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective complex (MCC). A trans-Atlantic dust outbreak of Saharan origin occurring in early March 2004 is considered. For the observed MCCs under a given convective strength, small hydrometeors were found more prevalent in the dusty stratiform regions than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust regions, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of clouds and precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the size spectrum of precipitation-sized hydrometeors from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately to suppress precipitation and increase the lifecycle of cloud systems, especially over stratiform areas.

Lin, B.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-10947-DND

There are large uncertainties in quantifying dust effects on the climate because of the limitations on the measurements and observations of dust-cloud-precipitation-dynamics interactions. As a major terrestrial source of atmospheric aerosols, dusts may serve as a significant climate forcing for the changing climate due to its effect on solar and thermal radiation as well as on clouds and precipitation processes. Latest satellites measurements enable us to determine dust loadings and cloud distributions and can potentially be used to reduce the uncertainties in the estimations of aerosol effects on climate. This study uses sensors on various satellites to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in convective systems. A trans-Atlantic dust outbreak of Saharan origin occurring in early March 2004 is considered. For the observed convective systems under a given convective strength, small hydrometeors were found more prevalent in the dusty stratiform regions than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust regions, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of clouds and precipitation. These microphysical effects of the dusts on clouds are to shift the size spectrum of precipitation-sized hydrometeors from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately to suppress precipitation and increase the lifecycle of cloud systems, especially for stratiform clouds.

B Lin↗

Correction of Path Integrated Attenuation Estimates Considering the Soil Moisture Effect for the Gpm Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar

Spaceborne precipitation radars, including the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission’s Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission’s Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR), measure not only precipitation echoes but surface echoes as well, the latter of which are used to estimate the path-integrated attenuation (PIA) in the surface reference technique (SRT). In our previous study based on analyzing PR measurements, we found that attenuation-free surface backscattering cross sections (denoted by s0e) over land increased in the presence of precipitation. This behavior, called the soil moisture effect, causes an underestimate of the PIA by the SRT as the method does not explicitly consider this effect. In this study, measurements made by Ku-band Precipitation Radar (KuPR) and Ka-band Precipitation Radar (KaPR), which comprise the DPR, were analyzed to examine whether KuPR and KaPR exhibit similar dependencies on the soil moisture as does the PR. For both KuPR and KaPR, an increase in s0e was observed for a large portion of the land area, except for forests and deserts. Results from the Hitschfeld–Bordan (HB) method suggest that s0e increases with the surface precipitation rate for light precipitation events. Meanwhile, for heavy precipitation, owing to the degradation of the HB method, it is difficult to estimate s0e quantitatively. Thus, a correction method for PIA that considers the soil moisture effect was developed and implemented into the DPR standard algorithm. With this correction, the surface precipitation rate estimates increased by approximately 18%for KuPR and 15%for the normal scan of KaPR over land.

Shinta Seto↗

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Applications of a CloudSat-TRMM and CloudSat-GPM Satellite Coincidence Dataset

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) (Ku- and Ka-band, or 14 and 35 GHz) provides the capability to resolve the precipitation structure under moderate to heavy precipitation conditions. In this manuscript, the use of near-coincident observations between GPM and the CloudSat Profiling Radar (CPR) (W-band, or 94 GHz) are demonstrated to extend the capability of representing light rain and cold-season precipitation from DPR and the GPM passive microwave constellation sensors. These unique triple-frequency data have opened up applications related to cold-season precipitation, ice microphysics, and light rainfall and surface emissivity effects.

GPM↗

The Impacts of Rotational Mixing on the Precipitation Simulated by a Convection Permitting Model

With increased availability of computational resources, regional and global scale convection-permitting model (CPM, Δx ~ 1–10 km) simulations are becoming more common. CPMs have improved accuracy in their representation of deep convection and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) compared to coarser resolution models. However, CPMs still exhibit convective cloud and precipitation biases relative to observations, notably a lesser frequency of light precipitation rates and greater frequency of heavy precipitation rates. In this work we hypothesize that these CPM biases are related to under-resolved mixing between convective updrafts and their surrounding environment. To test this hypothesis, we introduce a parameterization to the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) that adds a small angular rotation of the grid-scale flow about the axis perpendicular to the plane of convective drafts. This rotated flow is then allowed to alter advection of moisture and hydrometeors. The effects of such mixing on precipitation characteristics are evaluated in month-long 4-km grid spacing simulations over the Amazon. The enhanced mixing transports moisture and condensate from convective cores to other areas including downdrafts. This increases the frequency of low-precipitable water and light precipitation. It also decreases the frequency of intense precipitation from isolated deep convection and MCSs, increases cloud top temperatures, reduces radar echo-top heights, and increases overall precipitation by altering the relationship of precipitation with precipitable water, in better agreement with observations. The results suggest when optimized using multiple observations, such an approach may provide a path toward more accurate representation of convection and precipitation statistics in convection-permitting simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Microphysics and Model Resolution on Precipitation Associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009

In recent years, the heavy rainfall that was associated with severe weather events (e.g., typhoons, local heavy precipitation events) has caused significant damages in the economy and loss of human life throughout Taiwan. Especially, the extreme heavy rainfall (over 2500 mm over 24 hours) associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009 caused more than 600 human beings lost and more than $100 million US dollar damage. In this paper, we are using WRF to simulate the precipitation processes associated Typhoon Morakot 2009. The preliminary results indicated that the wrf model with using 2 km grid size and with utilizing the 310E scheme (cloud ice, snow and hail) can simulate more than 2500 mm rainfall over 24 hour integration. In this talk, we will evaluate the performance of the microphysical schemes for the Typhoon Morakot case. In addition, we will examine the impact of model resolution (in both horizontal and vertical) on the Typhoon Morakot case.

Lin, Pay-Liam↗

Contrasting Effects of Urban Land Cover Change and Anthropogenic Heat on Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Delta of China: Analyses From an Atmospheric Moisture Budget Perspective

Both urban land cover (ULC) change and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission are important causes of urban heat island, but their relative contributions to the changes in urban precipitation and the related mechanism remain unclear. Based on numerical simulations utilizing the latest realistic urban fraction and AH data over the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we found that ULC and AH resulted in nearly opposite effects on precipitation. Various dynamical and thermodynamic processes were involved according to the atmospheric moisture budget analyses. AH increased precipitation particularly during afternoon, and the increases were stronger during heavy precipitation events because of the enhanced moisture convergence effect together with the release of moisture storage previously accumulated in the atmosphere. Differently, ULC reduced mean precipitation mainly due to suppressed evaporation. During weak precipitation events, the suppressed evaporation was largely balanced by the intensified moisture convergence, but during heavy events, ULC caused more pronounced precipitation reduction because the moisture convergence response disappeared and failed to offset the evaporation effect. Here, the relative contributions of different dynamical and thermodynamic processes such as those related to circulation, moisture gradient, and background moisture availability to the temporal variation in the total moisture convergence were further quantified. Overall, our results help better understand the relative roles of different aspects of urbanization on precipitation, and suggest that compared to ULC, reduction in AH emission that is tightly related to the energy consumption structure could be more efficient for mitigating the risk of extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanism of Torrential Rain Associated with the Mei-yu Development during SCSMEX-98

A case of torrential precipitation process in the Mei-yu front, an Asian monsoon system east to the Tibetan Plateau, is studied with the coupled Penn State University/NCAR MM5 and NASA/GSFC PLACE (Parameterization for Land - Atmosphere - Cloud Exchange) models. Remote and local impacts of water vapor on the location and intensity of Mei-yu precipitation are studied by numerical experiments. Results demonstrate that the water vapor source for this heavy precipitation case in Yangtze river basin is derived mostly from the Bay of Bengal, transported by the southwesterly low-level Jet (LLJ) southeast to the Tibetan Plateau. The moist convection is a critical process in the development and maintenance of the front. The meridional and zonal secondary circulations resulted from Mei-yu condensation heating both act to increase the wind speed in the LLJ. The condensation induced local circulation strengthens the moisture transport in the LLJ, providing a positive feedback to sustain the Mei-yu precipitation system. It is found that local precipitation recycling shifts heavy rain toward the warm side of the Mei-yu front. This shift of rainfall location is due to the pronounced increase of atmospheric moisture and decrease of surface temperature over the warm side of the front.

Qian, Jian-Hua↗

Comparisons of IMERG Version 06 Precipitation at and between Passive Microwave Overpasses in the Tropics

The Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG) is a global precipitation product that uses precipitation retrievals from the virtual constellation of satellites with passive microwave (PMW) sensors, as available. In the absence of PMW observations, IMERG uses a Kalman filter scheme to morph precipitation from one PMW observation to the next. In this study, an analysis of convective systems observed during the Convective Process Experiment (CPEX) suggests that IMERG precipitation depends more strongly on the availability of PMW observations than previously suspected. Following this evidence, we explore systematic biases in IMERG through bulk statistics. In two CPEX case studies, cloud photographs, pilot’s radar, and infrared imagery suggest that IMERG represents the spatial extent of precipitation relatively well when there is a PMW observation but sometimes produces spurious precipitation areas in the absence of PMW observations. Also, considering an observed convective system as a precipitation object in IMERG, the maximum rain rate peaked during PMW overpasses, with lower values between them. Bulk statistics reveal that these biases occur throughout IMERG Version 06. We find that locations and times without PMW observations have a higher frequency of light precipitation rates and a lower frequency of heavy precipitation rates due to retrieval artifacts. These results reveal deficiencies in the IMERG Kalman filter scheme, which have led to the development of the Scheme for Histogram Adjustment with Ranked Precipitation Estimates in the Neighborhood (SHARPEN; described in a companion paper) that will be applied in the next version of IMERG.

Manikandan Rajagopal↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Represented in High Resolution E3SMv2 and Impact of New Cloud and Convection Parameterizations

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global hydrological cycle, general circulation, and radiative energy budget. In this study, we evaluate MCS simulations in the second version of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2). E3SMv2 atmosphere model (EAMv2) is run at the uniform 0.25? horizontal resolution. We track MCSs consistently in the model and observations using the PyFLEXTRKR algorithm, which defines MCS based on both cloud-top brightness temperature (Tb) and surface precipitation. Results from using Tb only to define MCS, commonly used in previous studies, are also discussed. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impact of new cloud and convection parameterizations developed for EAMv3 on simulated MCSs. Our results show that EAMv2 simulated MCS precipitation is largely underestimated in the tropics and contiguous United States. This is mainly attributed to the underestimated precipitation intensity in EAMv2. In contrast, the simulated MCS frequency becomes more comparable to observations if MCSs are defined only based on cloud-top Tb. The Tb-based MCS tracking method, however, includes many cloud systems with very weak precipitation which conflicts with the MCS definition. This result illustrates the importance of accounting for precipitation in evaluating simulated MCSs. We also find that the new physics parameterizations help increase the relative contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation in the tropics, but the simulated MCS properties are generally not improved. This suggests that simulating MCSs will remain a challenge for the next version of E3SM.

Zhang, Meng↗

Doppler radar observation of thunderstorm circulation in the 1977 trip program

Storm data obtained on August 1, 1977 are examined in an attempt to interpret the relationship between lightning occurrence and the thunderstorm inner dynamics and precipitation processes. Horizontal maps are presented which indicated the position of radiation sources detected by the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network, together with the horizontal motion fields and radar reflectivity data. Detailed inspection of these fields showed that, although radiation sources are found in the vicinity of precipitation cells, they are not located in the heavy precipitation areas, but rather on their rear side in regions where the configuration of the wind fields suggests the presence of updrafts.

Lhermitte, R. M.↗

Convection-Permitting Simulations With the E3SM Global Atmosphere Model

This paper describes the first implementation of the Δx = 3.25 km version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) global atmosphere model and its behavior in a 40-day prescribed-sea-surface-temperature simulation (January 20 through February 28, 2020). This simulation was performed as part of the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) Phase 2 model intercomparison. Effective resolution is found to be ~ 6x the horizontal dynamics grid resolution despite using a coarser grid for physical parameterizations. Despite this new model being in an immature and untuned state, moving to 3.25 km grid spacing solves several long-standing problems with the E3SM model. In particular, Amazon precipitation is much more realistic, the frequency of light and heavy precipitation is improved, agreement between the simulated and observed diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation is excellent, and the vertical structure of tropical convection and coastal stratocumulus look good. In addition, the new model is able to capture the frequency and structure of important weather events (e.g., tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones including atmospheric rivers, and cold air outbreaks). Interestingly, this model does not get rid of the erroneous southern branch of the intertropical convergence zone nor the tendency for strongest convection to occur over the Maritime Continent rather than the West Pacific, both of which are classic climate model biases. Several other problems with the simulation are identified, underscoring the fact that this model is a work in progress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What Determines the Number and the Timing of Pulses in Afternoon Precipitation in the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) Observations?

Using GoAmazon observations over the central Amazon, we investigate double-pulse events of afternoon precipitation for the first time. Relative humidity is the dominant factor in determining the onset timing and the number of pulses of precipitation. A moister free troposphere on single-pulse days features heavy precipitation in the early afternoon, which stabilizes the atmosphere and prohibits further convection. On early–onset double-pulse days, weaker precipitation from shallower convection in the first pulse leads to less consumption of atmospheric instability, making the environment favorable for a second pulse of stronger precipitation. A cluster tracking algorithm using the scanning radar reflectivity is developed to examine the relationship between precipitation pulses. Through explicitly tracking convective clusters that exist from the first to the second pulse, convective aggregation plays a more dominant role to the survival of clusters with larger final size, and on average around 20% of cluster survivals are due to natural growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗