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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

East Tennessee Technology Park Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program 2024 Calendar Year Report

The East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program (BMAP) consists of three tasks that reflect different but complementary approaches to evaluating the ecological integrity of waters near ETTP. These tasks include (1) bioaccumulation monitoring of fish and clams, (2) benthic macroinvertebrate species richness and density monitoring, and (3) fish community monitoring. The sampling and analysis requirements for the ETTP BMAP in calendar year 2024, covering in part both FY 2024 and FY 2025, are outlined in the respective FY sampling and analysis plans (UCOR 2023, 2024). Sampled water bodies and locations for the ETTP BMAP are shown in Figures 1 and 2. This ETTP BMAP report presents the CY 2024 results and provides context with results from previous years. The report also includes Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)–generated biological monitoring data collected for other US Department of Energy programs, including the UCOR Water Resources Restoration Program (WRRP) off-site fish bioaccumulation data (UCOR 2023) and select Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) BMAP fish bioaccumulation data. Historical data collected for the ETTP BMAP and other programs in the nearby Poplar Creek and Clinch River are provided where appropriate. This progress report provides an update on the biological monitoring activities supporting the ETTP UCOR Environmental Compliance organization, which sponsors the ETTP BMAP. In addition to this internal reporting, ETTP BMAP results are provided in the annual remediation effectiveness reports and the annual site environmental reports, both of which are publicly available. BMAP data are also available to the public via the Oak Ridge Environmental Information System (https://ucor.com/oak-ridge-environmental-information-system-oreis/).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Addressing deep array effects and impacts to wake steering with the cumulative-curl wake model

Abstract. Wind farm design and analysis heavily rely on computationally efficient engineering models that are evaluated many times to find an optimal solution. A recent article compared the state-of-the-art Gauss-curl hybrid (GCH) model to historical data of three offshore wind farms. Two points of model discrepancy were identified therein: poor wake predictions for turbines experiencing a lot of wakes and wake interactions between two turbines over long distances. The present article addresses those two concerns and presents the cumulative-curl (CC) model. Comparison of the CC model to high-fidelity simulation data and historical data of three offshore wind farms confirms the improved accuracy of the CC model over the GCH model in situations with large wake losses and wake recovery over large inter-turbine distances. Additionally, the CC model performs comparably to the GCH model for single- and fewer-turbine wake interactions, which were already accurately modeled. Lastly, the CC model has been implemented in a vectorized form, greatly reducing the computation time for many wind conditions. The CC model now enables reliable simulation studies for both small and large offshore wind farms at a low computational cost, thereby making it an ideal candidate for wake-steering optimization and layout optimization.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data

New launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure probabilities in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Work on a new methodology originally started with ARES I-X and the Common Standards Working Group (CSWG) for range safety applications. CSWG consists of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Air Force, and NASA. Historical launch vehicle data was viewed as the best predictor of success/failure for launches of new vehicles. A launch vehicle database was developed that includes all launches from 1980-2017 (both US and foreign). Entries to the database include: Vehicle by model type; Launch dates; Failure description; Failure Result (Loss Of Vehicle (LOV)/Loss Of Mission (LOM); Failure cause (when available); Vehicle designs (stages/engines/etc.)

Early flight risk↗
NASA NTRS2000

Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Opening Historical Airborne Data to Present Day Researchers

For more than 50 years, NASA has flown airborne sensors to carry out research, validate satellite sensors, and test new instrument capabilities. Data collected prior to 2000 are typically analog and difficult to locate and use. The Airborne Data Management Group (ADMG) facilitates rescue of these valuable data to ensure easier discovery, access, and use. But opening historical data comes at a cost of both time and money. Careful decisions are required in assessing the return on investment. - Is there interest in the science community? - Are there government data requirements? - What is the temporal / spatial value of the data? - Can data be transformed to a digital format? - What is cost of transformation? - What time period is needed for rescue? Converting the data to today’s digital storage standards increases value and provides data access. The addition of metadata makes the data easier to search for.

Deborah Smith↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data

New launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure rates in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment - PRA. This is because PRAs typically model a mature vehicle where a significant portion of the early failure probability contributors have been eliminated due to testing and improvements after actual field operation. To capture a more accurate early flight failure probability estimate, this paper develops a method that estimates ascent failure probability starting with the first flight based on historical launch vehicle records. With new launch vehicles being developed, such as the Space Launch System - SLS, a PRA model must be extended to cover early flight failure probability contributions that are either not covered in the mature-vehicle PRA or are underestimated. These failure probability contributions include design errors, quality control deficiencies, installation errors, and environmental impacts. There are also failure dependencies due to systemic errors that still exist due to limited entire-system testing.

Cross, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kiwi-TNT Simulation Model [Slides]

The Kiwi-TNT Test (Toonerville Trolley) was performed on January 12, 1965. LANL has the objective: "LANL will develop a defensible methodology for establishing the maximum number of fissions for postulated inadvertent criticality events. The methodology may include several methods, such as hand calculations, sophisticated modeling, and the use of historical data.” The historic test, Kiwi TNT, posed a starting point for predictive simulations to determine the number of fissions and excursion understanding. This presentation gives results of that effort.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Module D1-2 LWR Pelletized MOX Fuel Fabrication

Nature of this 2021 Module update from previous AFC-CBRs: Use of U,Pu MOX life cycle cost data from late 1970s Non-proliferation Assessment Systems Analysis Program (NASAP). This archived data has been updated in 2018-2019 to reflect today’s regulatory and economic conditions and is presented in 2017. For the lower unit cost MOX fabrication case the PuO 2 from the reprocessed LWR SNF is assumed to be fabricated immediately after aqueous PUREX reprocessing, thus minimizing the time for undesirable actinide radioisotopes, from the standpoint of radiation safety, to build in. Fabricated MOX utilizing separated and multi-year stored Pu from aqueously reprocessed SNF has also been added to this Module as a second LWR MOX fabrication variant, requiring additional and more costly glovebox design and operations to protect personnel. This new NASAP-informed data augments historical data and unit cost projections appearing in the 2009 (Shropshire et al 2009), 2012 (Dixon et al 2012), and 2017 Dixon et al 2017) AFC-CBRs. The “What-it-takes” 2017 unit fabrication cost values based on the updated NASAP studies are escalated to 2020$ for this 2021 Update Report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1992

OCEAN-PC and a distributed network for ocean data

The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) wishes to develop an integrated software package for oceanographic data entry and access in developing countries. The software, called 'OCEAN-PC', would run on low cost PC microcomputers and would encourage and standardize: (1) entry of local ocean observations; (2) quality control of the local data; (3) merging local data with historical data; (4) improved display and analysis of the merged data; and (5) international data exchange. OCEAN-PC will link existing MS-DOS oceanographic programs and data sets with table-driven format conversions. Since many ocean data sets are now being distributed on optical discs (Compact Discs - Read Only Memory, CD-ROM, Mass et al. 1987), OCEAN-PC will emphasize access to CD-ROMs.

Mclain, Douglas R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Accuracy of Geophysical Parameters Derived from AIRS/AMSU as a Function of Fractional Cloud Cover

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4,2002, together with AMSU A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. The sounding goals of AIRS are to produce 1 km tropospheric layer mean temperatures with an rms error of 1K, and layer precipitable water with an rms error of 20%, in cases with up to 80% effective cloud cover. The basic theory used to analyze AIRS/AMSU/HSB data in the presence of clouds, called the at-launch algorithm, was described previously. Pre-launch simulation studies using this algorithm indicated that these results should be achievable. Some modifications have been made to the at-launch retrieval algorithm as described in this paper. Sample fields of parameters retrieved from AIRS/AMSU/HSB data are presented and validated as a function of retrieved fractional cloud cover. As in simulation, the degradation of retrieval accuracy with increasing cloud cover is small. HSB failed in February 2005, and consequently HSB channel radiances are not used in the results shown in this paper. The AIRS/AMSU retrieval algorithm described in this paper, called Version 4, become operational at the Goddard DAAC in April 2005 and is being used to analyze near-real time AIRS/AMSU data. Historical AIRS/AMSU data, going backwards from March 2005 through September 2002, is also being analyzed by the DAAC using the Version 4 algorithm.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2006

Accuracy of Geophysical Parameters Derived from AIRS/AMSU as a Function of Fractional Cloud Cover

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4,2002, together with AMSU A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. The sounding goals of AIRS are to produce 1 km tropospheric layer mean temperatures with an rms error of lK, and layer precipitable water with an rms error of 20 percent, in cases with up to 80 percent effective cloud cover. The basic theory used to analyze Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit/Humidity Sounder Brazil (AIRS/AMSU/HSB) data in the presence of clouds, called the at-launch algorithm, was described previously. Pre-launch simulation studies using this algorithm indicated that these results should be achievable. Some modifications have been made to the at-launch retrieval algorithm as described in this paper. Sample fields of parameters retrieved from AIRS/AMSU/HSB data are presented and validated as a function of retrieved fractional cloud cover. As in simulation, the degradation of retrieval accuracy with increasing cloud cover is small and the RMS accuracy of lower tropospheric temperature retrieved with 80 percent cloud cover is about 0.5 K poorer than for clear cases. HSB failed in February 2003, and consequently HSB channel radiances are not used in the results shown in this paper. The AIRS/AMSU retrieval algorithm described in this paper, called Version 4, become operational at the Goddard DAAC (Distributed Active Archive Center) in April 2003 and is being used to analyze near-real time AIRS/AMSU data. Historical AIRS/AMSU data, going backwards from March 2005 through September 2002, is also being analyzed by the DAAC using the Version 4 algorithm.

Susskind, Joel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning functional priors and posteriors from data and physics

In this work, we develop a new Bayesian framework based on deep neural networks to be able to extrapolate in space-time using historical data and to quantify uncertainties arising from both noisy and gappy data in physical problems. Specifically, the proposed approach has two stages: (1) prior learning and (2) posterior estimation. At the first stage, we employ the physics-informed Generative Adversarial Networks (PI-GAN) to learn a functional prior either from a prescribed function distribution, e.g., Gaussian process, or from historical data and physics. At the second stage, we employ the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate the posterior in the latent space of PI-GANs. In addition, we use two different approaches to encode the physics: (1) automatic differentiation, used in the physicsinformed neural networks (PINNs) for scenarios with explicitly known partial differential equations (PDEs), and (2) operator regression using the deep operator network (DeepONet) for PDE-agnostic scenarios. We then test the proposed method for (1) meta-learning for one-dimensional regression, and forward/inverse PDE problems (combined with PINNs); (2) PDE-agnostic physical problems (combined with DeepONet), e.g., fractional diffusion as well as saturated stochastic (100-dimensional) flows in heterogeneous porous media; and (3) spatial-temporal regression problems, i.e., inference of a marine riser displacement field using experimental data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide accurate predictions as well as uncertainty quantification given very limited scattered and noisy data, since historical data could be available to provide informative priors. In summary, the proposed method is capable of learning flexible functional priors, e.g., both Gaussian and non-Gaussian process, and can be readily extended to big data problems by enabling mini-batch training using stochastic HMC or normalizing flows since the latent space is generally characterized as low dimensional.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA NDE Fracture Critical Detectable Flaw Sizes History and Methodology

NASA requires that NDE methods and inspectors demonstrate 90% Probability of Detection (POD) with 95% confidence for critical flaw sizes when inspecting fracture critical metallic components. NASA addresses the known variability of NDE inspector capability in two ways. The first, Special NDE, requires that every inspector demonstrate the required 90/95 POD, which is resource intensive. The second approach is Standard NDE for which conservative flaw sizes for different NDE methods are provided such that it is expected that most properly trained inspectors will exceed the 90/95 POD requirement. As such, individual POD demonstration testing is not required. The origin of NASA Standard NDE dates to the start of the Space Shuttle Program in the early 1970’s. In the first study to quantitatively assess NDE methods and inspectors, the performance of multiple inspectors was evaluated for different NDE methods using a large set of fatigue cracked specimens. A rudimentary POD analysis was performed to estimate the 90/95 POD flaw size for each inspector for each method. Additionally, the average and standard deviation of the 90/95 POD flaw size across the multiple inspectors was calculated to estimate the flaw size for which 95 percent of inspectors would provide the 90/95 POD capability. These estimated 90/95/95 POD flaw sizes evolved into the NASA Standard NDE flaw sizes still in use for structural analysis five decades later. The methodology for performing Standard NDE POD studies was never documented in NASA requirements. Furthermore, POD analysis methods have significantly evolved since this seminal study. Likewise, NDE methods have improved and there has been a push to reassess Standard NDE flaw sizes for existing methods, and to develop Standard NDE flaw sizes for new methods such as digital radiography. In this study, a Standard NDE POD methodology was developed and baselined using the historical data. This reanalysis of the historical data identified several deficiencies in the original test plan as well as an overall lack of conservatism in the estimated 90/95/95 POD flaw sizes. The results of this historical review and the new methodology are being incorporated into an update of NASA NDE POD requirements.

Nondestructive Evaluation↗
DOE OSTI2025

"Hidden" hydrothermal technical potential & technoeconomics: Revealing permeability & fluids with more data

Historical hydrothermal estimates have largely relied on temperature or heat flow estimates ignoring the need for natural flowing fluids. More accurate hydrothermal estimates require some indication of permeability and fluids that naturally exist in the subsurface. This paper describes a novel approach that includes proxies of permeability and fluids in hydrothermal estimates by leveraging the relatively data-rich Great Basin. Specifically, nameplate capacities (megawatts) of operating geothermal plants, negative (0 megawatt) locations and 48 geophysical and geologic features are used to used in eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression to make hydrothermal capacity predictions. Additionally, this work inputs the XGBoost-based hydrothermal predictions into the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to quantify technical capacity, its uncertainty and techno-economics. Compared to historical hydrothermal estimates, these predictions adhere to the 37 operating geothermal plants and negative locations. We present a method for subsampling the negative sites to bring the labels into balance that uses the geologic domain knowledge to proportionally represent negatives. Overall, the distributions of the hydrothermal technical capacity and the site levelized cost of energy are respectively much tighter, lower and more accurate than the previous estimates for the Great Basin, as they include geological and geophysical surrogates for permeability and fluids. Percentile (50th and 90th, median and high estimate, respectively) models provide bookends for these metrics.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗