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DOE OSTI2021

Failure prediction and estimation of failure parameters

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine frictional state or other parameters in an earthquake zone or other failing medium, using acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes. Predictions of future failures are demonstrated in different regimes. A classifier is trained using time series of acoustic emission data along with historic data of frictional state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and gradient boost trees are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to testing or live data in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, or make predictions regarding a future failure event. The technology has been developed in a double direct shear apparatus, but can be widely applied to seismic faults, other terrestrial failures, or failures in man-made structures. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Energy Market Schedules using Historical Price Data

The global climate crisis is expected to reshape the energy generation landscape in the coming decades. Increasing integration of non-dispatchable renewable energy resources into energy infrastructures and markets creates uncertainty as well as new opportunities for flexible energy systems. To conduct proper economic evaluation of flexible energy systems, such as integrated energy systems (IES), advancements in modelling of market interactions, such as bidding, is crucial. This work presents a shortcut algorithm which uses two mixed integer linear programs to compute dispatch schedules (e.g., hourly power production targets) that are constrained by the resource's bid information and characteristics (e.g., minimum up and down times) based on historical locational marginal price (LMP) data. The proposed algorithm is approximately 100 times faster and uses orders of magnitude less data than a full production cost model (PCM). We find the shortcut simulator recapitulates generator dispatch signals for the Prescient PCM with approximately 4% error for the RTS-GMLC test system.

electricity generation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Energy Market Schedules Using Historical Price Data: Preprint

The global climate crisis is expected to reshape the energy generation landscape in the coming decades. Increasing integration of non-dispatchable renewable energy resources into energy infrastructures and markets increases uncertainty and creates new opportunities for flexible energy systems. To conduct proper economic evaluation of flexible energy systems, such as integrated energy systems (IES), advancements in modelling of market interactions, such as bidding, is crucial. This work presents a shortcut algorithm which uses two mixed integer linear programs to compute dispatch schedules (e.g., hourly power production targets) that are constrained by the resource's bid information and characteristics (e.g., minimum up and down times) based on historical locational marginal price (LMP) data. This is orders of magnitude less data than required for a market clearing calculation with a full production cost model (PCM). We find the shortcut simulator recapitulates generator dispatch signals for the Prescient PCM with approximately 4% error for the RTS-GMLC test system.

electricity generation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Active meta-learning for predicting and selecting perovskite crystallization experiments

Autonomous experimentation systems use algorithms and data from prior experiments to select and perform new experiments in order to meet a specified objective. In most experimental chemistry situations, there is a limited set of prior historical data available, and acquiring new data may be expensive and time consuming, which places constraints on machine learning methods. Active learning methods prioritize new experiment selection by using machine learning model uncertainty and predicted outcomes. Meta-learning methods attempt to construct models that can learn quickly with a limited set of data for a new task. Here in this paper, we applied the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) model and the Probabilistic LATent model for Incorporating Priors and Uncertainty in few-Shot learning (PLATIPUS) approach, which extends MAML to active learning, to the problem of halide perovskite growth by inverse temperature crystallization. Using a dataset of 1870 reactions conducted using 19 different organoammonium lead iodide systems, we determined the optimal strategies for incorporating historical data into active and meta-learning models to predict reaction compositions that result in crystals. We then evaluated the best three algorithms (PLATIPUS and active-learning k-nearest neighbor and decision tree algorithms) with four new chemical systems in experimental laboratory tests. With a fixed budget of 20 experiments, PLATIPUS makes superior predictions of reaction outcomes compared to other active-learning algorithms and a random baseline.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust Parameter Design on Dual Stochastic Response Models With Constrained Bayesian Optimization

In engineering system design, minimizing the variations of the quality measurements while guaranteeing their overall quality up to certain levels, namely the robust parameter design (RPD), is crucial. Recent works have dealt with the design of a system whose response-control variables relationship is a deterministic function with a complex shape and function evaluation is expensive. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method for the RPD of stochastic functions. Dual stochastic response models are carefully designed for stochastic functions. The heterogeneous variance of the sample mean is addressed by the predictive mean of the log variance surrogate model in a two-step approach. We establish an acquisition function that favors exploration across the feasible and optimality-improvable regions to effectively and efficiently solve the stochastic constrained optimization problem. Further, the performance of our proposed method is demonstrated by the extensive numerical and case studies. Note to Practitioners-Many manufacturing processes involve undesirable variations, which create variations in the final products. For example, many emerging manufacturing processes, such as nanomanufacturing, involve complex physical and chemical dynamics and transformation, creating variations in the manufacturing output. In such processes, it is crucial to design the manufacturing processes or products so that they have minimum variations in their quality. Meanwhile, it is also important to maintain the overall quality of the designed processes or products. Furthermore, acquiring data from many advanced manufacturing processes is often very costly, especially in the designing stage. In this work, we propose a data-driven method that automatically finds the best setting of manufacturing processes or products with the minimum variations of quality and a given constraint on the average quality satisfied. Our proposed method is used before conducting every experiment; It analyzes the historical data from previous experiments and provides a setting to be used in the next experiment. Our proposed method efficiently utilizes the historical data, and thus finds the best robust setting by conducting only a small number of experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Environment on Post-Detonation Chemistry and Debris Formation (Abbreviated Final Report: 20-SI-006)

Predicting, responding to, or interpreting the chemical record preserved in debris derived from nuclear events can be challenging due to chemical fractionation. Chemical fractionation is where different species of the evolving radionuclide inventory segregate and/or are lost from the system over the timescales of debris formation. Both historic data and recent research suggest that the interaction and character of the local environment may exert controls on chemical fractionation by influencing the cooling and evolution of the associated fireball as well as the composition of the vapor term and resultant speciation. Prior to this work, an integrated platform permitting dynamic and concurrent consideration of physical and chemical evolution of early time post-detonation event environments did not exist. Our work merged historic data and experimental approaches to support development of a computational framework able to simulate fundamental processes (e.g., entrainment of local environment, oxidation chemistry, and cooling time scales) that may perturb the radionuclide inventory captured in post-detonation debris. Work with historic debris confirmed that entrained environmental material affect debris composition, structure, and radionuclide incorporation. Complementary work utilizing a readily controllable and tunable benchtop setup (a plasma flow reactor) simulated the late cooling of a nuclear fireball (e.g., T < 6000 K) and bounded the sensitivity of actinide speciation and particle size distribution to variations in oxygen concentration and cooling rates. Concurrent laser ablation and laser heating experiments were used to investigate the chemistry and physics of processes occurring in vaporized and/or rapidly heated actinides and other elements in the presence of oxygen. A more computationally efficient microphysical model was developed for predicting and evolving size distributions of particles forming from mixed vapor terms and simulating particle formation processes under a variety of extreme conditions. Continued study of historic nuclear event film confirmed that shockwave data and physics codes agree to within the uncertainty of the data. Good agreement was achieved for thermal emission from an airburst, however the paucity of low-temperature molecular opacity data for mixtures of air, bomb debris, entrained dirt, and water vapor complicate agreement for more elaborate scenarios. A multiphysics code (ALE3D) was modified to bring the necessary physics and chemistry, including these new data and insights, onto a single platform. Code development included improved initialization of large physical systems, modernization of chemistry capabilities, and modifications to enable inclusion of particle transport.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using new edges for anomaly detection in computer networks

Creation of new edges in a network may be used as an indication of a potential attack on the network. Historical data of a frequency with which nodes in a network create and receive new edges may be analyzed. Baseline models of behavior among the edges in the network may be established based on the analysis of the historical data. A new edge that deviates from a respective baseline model by more than a predetermined threshold during a time window may be detected. The new edge may be flagged as potentially anomalous when the deviation from the respective baseline model is detected. Probabilities for both new and existing edges may be obtained for all edges in a path or other subgraph. The probabilities may then be combined to obtain a score for the path or other subgraph. A threshold may be obtained by calculating an empirical distribution of the scores under historical conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic System Health-State Architecture for Data-Driven Failure Detection

The timely detection of photovoltaic (PV) system failures is important for maintaining optimal performance and lifetime reliability. A main challenge remains the lack of a unified health-state architecture for the uninterrupted monitoring and predictive performance of PV systems. To this end, existing failure detection models are strongly dependent on the availability and quality of site-specific historic data. The scope of this work is to address these fundamental challenges by presenting a health-state architecture for advanced PV system monitoring. The proposed architecture comprises of a machine learning model for PV performance modeling and accurate failure diagnosis. The predictive model is optimally trained on low amounts of on-site data using minimal features and coupled to functional routines for data quality verification, whereas the classifier is trained under an enhanced supervised learning regime. The results demonstrated high accuracies for the implemented predictive model, exhibiting normalized root mean square errors lower than 3.40% even when trained with low data shares. The classification results provided evidence that fault conditions can be detected with a sensitivity of 83.91% for synthetic power-loss events (power reduction of 5%) and of 97.99% for field-emulated failures in the test-bench PV system. Finally, this work provides insights on how to construct an accurate PV system with predictive and classification models for the timely detection of faults and uninterrupted monitoring of PV systems, regardless of historic data availability and quality. Such guidelines and insights on the development of accurate health-state architectures for PV plants can have positive implications in operation and maintenance and monitoring strategies, thus improving the system’s performance.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Models, Indices & Optimization Algorithms for Pricing & Hedging Reliability Risks in Modern Power Grids: Data Plan - Princeton

We collected and cleaned the synthetic grid data produced by NREL for the Texas and New York synthetic grids. We developed a high dimensional joint stochastic model for load at the zone level, and solar and wind power productions at the asset level, capturing the spatial and temporal dependencies between all the variables, and demonstrated how such a model could be fitted to historical data. We designed and implemented a simulation engine which can produce Monte Carlo scenarios for the hourly day-ahead values of load, and solar and wind power productions at the spatial and temporal resolutions of the historical data used to fit the model. Finally we developed an open-source Python package which can, from an input grid model, efficiently use forecasts and large numbers of Monte Carlo scenarios to provide unit commitment and economic dispatch for each of these scenarios. The high dimensional stochastic model and the subsequent Monte Carlo simulation engine were implemented in the package PGscen and the corresponding UC and ED optimization programs in the package Vatic.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Henkin-McGill critical temperature test for explosives revisited: An overview of historical and modern method development

Many overarching standards, regulations, or other requirements necessitate that the critical temperature (T crit ) of an energetic material be known or estimate prior to operations such as heating. However, they rarely, if ever, provide a specific method for doing so. While other methods exist to calculate T crit , such as the Frank-Kamenetskii equation, computer simulation, etc., these cannot be readily utilized for energetics that are physical mixtures (i.e. most pyrotechnics) or materials where detailed material properties required for such calculations are lacking. Here, in this study, a COTS (commercial off-the-shelf) SBAT (Simulated Bulk Auto-ignition Test) apparatus is modified to perform Henkin cookoff tests. This creates a simple, efficient, and cost-effective solution to estimate required T crit values for energetic materials. After a historical overview of the evolution of the Henkin test, several common energetic materials (PETN, RDX, etc.) for which T crit has been readily calculated, and historical data is available, were analyzed for comparison and verification purposes. This was followed by a variety of pyrotechnic mixtures and other materials to where calculation methods cannot be readily used. The modified apparatus, as well as an updated sample shell sealing method, produced results that aligned well with historical data. It also produced reasonable T crit estimates for those materials where the Frank-Kamenetskii equation cannot be applied.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved microgrid resiliency through distributionally robust optimization under a policy-mode framework

Critical energy infrastructure are constantly under stress due to the ever increasing disruptions caused by wildfires, hurricanes, other weather related extreme events and cyber-attacks. Hence it becomes important to make critical infrastructure resilient to threats from such cyber-physical events. However, such events are hard to predict and numerous in nature and type and it becomes infeasible to make a system resilient to every possible such cyber-physical event. Such an approach can make the system operation overly conservative and impractical to operate. Furthermore, distributions of such events are hard to predict and historical data available on such events can be very sparse, making the problem even harder to solve. To deal with these issues, in this paper we present a policy-mode framework that enumerates and predicts the probability of various cyber-physical events and then a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation that is robust to the sparsity of the available historical data. The proposed algorithm is illustrated on an islanded microgrid example: a modified IEEE 123-node feeder with distributed energy resources (DERs) and energy storage. Simulations are carried to validate the resiliency metrics under the sampled disruption events.

Nazir, Mohammad Nawaf↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced reactor fuel technology development. Modern U-Zr and U- Pu-Zr pin designs are primary candidates to fuel SFRs and boast high fuel utilization capacity, increased fuel-cladding compatibility, and improved safety through inherent feedback mechanisms. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under transient overpower (TOP) and loss of flow (LOF) scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds to inform operational limitations rely heavily on fuel composition, burnup, and irradiation history. In expanding TOP and LOF testing, the Transient Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR) Capsule will be used to test modern fuel technologies in a static sodium environment in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility. The THOR capsule is highly instrumented and will provide time-dependent thermal behavior of SFR fuel pins subjected to accident conditions within TREAT. The THOR-Metallic (THOR- M) campaign aims to validate and expand historical TOP and LOF testing on high burnup U-Zr and U-Pu- Zr fuel alloys previously irradiated in EBR-II by running the rods to failure. This contribution focuses primarily on the pre-transient engineering-scale destructive and non- destructive characterization that has been conducted on both the test and sibling pins used for the TOP and LOF tests. All pins underwent visual examination, neutron radiography, element contact profilometry, and precise gamma scan. The sibling pins used for each test were further analyzed using gas assay, sampling, and recharge analysis (GASR), and optical microscopy. The results from each technique confirmed that the fuel pins were intact and devoid of any atypical developments when compared to historical data. Additionally, the analyzed measurements establish a baseline for comparison to post-transient analysis. Key fuel behaviors quanitifed include axial elongation of the fuel column, diametral strain of the pin, patterns in fluff structure geometry, changes in axial isotope distribution, evolution of constituent redistribution, porosity, and fission gas release. The pre-transient measurements and changes attributed to transient behavior from post-transient measurement will be compared to historical data to capture the behavioral dependence on composition, burnup, and irradiation history. Results from this work advance the initiatives of the THOR-M campaign, which aid in informing fuel performance models and establishing safety criteria for SFR operational limits. The novel combination of test environment, in-situ instrumentation, and comprehensive suite of characterization methods provides greater understanding of transient fuel behavior. Overall, information on the time and condition of pin failure for high burnup U-Pu-Zr will greatly expand the limited existing TOP and LOF test data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Chance-Constrained Design of Voltage Droop Control for Distribution Networks: Preprint

This paper addresses the design of local control methods for voltage control in distribution networks with high level of distributed energy resources (DERs). The designed control methods adapt the active and reactive power output of distributed energy resources proportional to the deviation of the local measured voltage magnitudes from a reference voltage, which is referred to as droop control. Thus, the design focuses on determining the droop characteristics which satisfy network-wide voltage magnitude constraints. The uncertainty and variability of DERs renders the design of optimal droop controls very challenging. Hence, this paper proposes chance constraints to limit the risk from intermittent DERs, by designing droop control coefficients that guarantee the satisfaction of network operational constraints with a specific probability. In addition, the proposed approach relies entirely on historical data rather than assuming knowledge of the probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty of DERs. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on a 37-bus distribution feeder.

chance-constrained optimization↗

DOE OSTI2020

Towards Off-policy Evaluation as a Prerequisite for Real-world Reinforcement Learning in Building Control

We present an initial study of off-policy evaluation (OPE), a problem prerequisite to real-world reinforcement learning (RL), in the context of building control. OPE is the problem of estimating a policy's performance without running it on the actual system, using historical data from the existing controller. It enables the control engineers to ensure a new, pretrained policy satisfies the performance requirements and safety constraints of a real-world system, prior to interacting with it. While many methods have been developed for OPE, no study has evaluated which ones are suitable for building operational data, which are generated by deterministic policies and have limited coverage of the state-action space. After reviewing existing works and their assumptions, we adopted the approximate model (AM) method. Furthermore, we used bootstrapping to quantify uncertainty and correct for bias. In a simulation study, we evaluated the proposed approach on 10 policies pretrained with imitation learning. On average, the AM method estimated the energy and comfort costs with 1.84% and 14.1% error, respectively.

Chen, B↗