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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation for the demolition of building 25-4838, vehicle maintenance shop, area 25, Nevada national security site, NYE county, Nevada

The purpose of this letter report is to document the mitigation of adverse effects of a proposed undertaking that would demolish Building 25-4838 in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in compliance with the terms of the 2024 Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning the Protection of Historic Properties on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (NNSS PA). Building 25-4838 (State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource # B19019) is a contributing element to the Nuclear Rocket Development Station (NRDS) Historic District (SHPO Resource # D424), which has been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) under Criteria A, B, C, and D (Reno et al. 2023). The proposed demolition constitutes an adverse effect. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) consulted with the SHPO on an adverse effect finding for the undertaking and notified the SHPO of its intent to use the standard mitigation in the NNSS PA on December 11, 2024 (Julian to Reed). The SHPO concurred on December 30, 2024 (Reed to Julian). Therefore, NNSA/NFO has prepared mitigation pursuant to the standard mitigation in the NNSS PA Appendix D.I.A for contributing elements to recorded, NRHP-eligible districts.

#B19019↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation for the demolition of building 25-3153, fire station, area 25, Nevada national security site, NYE county, Nevada

The purpose of this letter report is to document the mitigation of adverse effects of a proposed undertaking that would demolish Building 25-3153 in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in compliance with the terms of the 2024 Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning the Protection of Historic Properties on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (NNSS PA). Building 25-3153 (State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource # B19004) is a contributing element to the Nuclear Rocket Development Station (NRDS) Historic District (SHPO Resource # D424), which has been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) under Criteria A, B, C, and D (Reno et al. 2023). The proposed demolition constitutes an adverse effect. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) consulted with the SHPO on an adverse effect finding for the undertaking and notified the SHPO of its intent to use the standard mitigation in the NNSS PA on December 11, 2024 (Julian to Reed). The SHPO concurred on December 30, 2024 (Reed to Julian). Therefore, NNSA/NFO has prepared mitigation pursuant to the standard mitigation in the NNSS PA Appendix D.I.A for contributing elements to recorded, NRHP-eligible districts.

#B19004↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation for the demolition of the foundation of building 25-3113/3113a, area 25, Nevada national security site, NYE county, Nevada

The purpose of this letter report is to document the mitigation of adverse effects of a proposed undertaking that would demolish the foundation of Building 25-3113/3113A and the adjoining test pad at Test Cell A in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in compliance with the terms of the 2024 Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning the Protection of Historic Properties on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (NNSS PA). The foundation of Building 25-3113/3113A (State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource # B2443) is a contributing element to the Nuclear Rocket Development Station (NRDS) Historic District (SHPO Resource # D424), which has been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) under Criteria A, B, C, and D (Reno et al. 2023). The proposed demolition constitutes an adverse effect. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) consulted with the SHPO on an adverse effect finding for the undertaking and notified the SHPO of its intent to use the standard mitigation in the NNSS PA on December 11, 2024 (Julian to Reed). The SHPO concurred on December 30, 2024 (Reed to Julian). Therefore, NNSA/NFO has prepared mitigation pursuant to the standard mitigation in the NNSS PA Appendix D.I.A for contributing elements to recorded, NRHP-eligible districts.

#B2443↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Historic Context and Mitigation Documentation for a Portion of the U12n Tunnel Ventilation and Containment Systems, Area 12, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) has proposed repurposing the U12n Vent Hole #2 (SHPO Resource S2488) and the U12n.10 Vent Hole (S2489) for water sampling in the U12n Tunnel. The vent holes are part of the historic ventilation system for the tunnel and are contributing elements to the U12n Tunnel Historic District (D84). In consultation with the SHPO, NNSA/NFO determined the undertaking will have an adverse effect on the vent holes. The NNSA/NFO and the SHPO negotiated a memorandum of (MOA) with stipulations to mitigate adverse effects. This submission is to comply with the stipulations in the executed Memorandum of Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office, Environmental Management Nevada Program Office, and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Repurposing of Portions of the Ventilation System of the U12n Tunnel Complex Located in Area 12 at the Nevada National Security Site. In accordance with the MOA, the manuscript provides a historic context that describes the development and functioning of the historic U12n Tunnel ventilation system for underground nuclear tests (Stipulation III.C). High resolution digital color images of the vent hole containment doors, nearby elements, and overviews were obtained and keyed to a map and a photo index (Stipulation III.A) (Appendix A). Lastly, Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) forms were completed for each of the vent holes and Historic District D84 (Stipulation III.B) (Appendix B). The documentation including the historic context report, photographs, image files, and resource forms produced to fulfill the terms of the MOA will be archived with the Nuclear Testing Archive in Las Vegas (Stipulation III.D).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation documentation for the removal of hazardous materials from the engine installation vehicle and manned control car area 25, Nevada national security site, NYE county, Nevada

The purpose of this letter report is to document the mitigation of adverse effects of a proposed undertaking that would remove hazardous materials from the Engine Installation Vehicle (EIV) in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site (NNNSS) in compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and the terms of the 2024 Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning the Protection of Historic Properties on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the NNSS PA. The EIV (State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. S3057) has been determined individually eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) under Criteria A and C and as a contributing element to the Nuclear Rocket Development Station (NRDS) Historic District, which is eligible for the NRHP under all four Significance Criteria (Reno et al. 2023; Reed 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2024 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2023 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 4 states have a 100% RPS. An additional 16 states have adopted a broader 100% CES. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Almost half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is nominally associated with state RPS requirements. That percentage has declined over time to 35% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2023, though in certain regions RPS policies continue to play a dominant role in driving RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: The combined demand for clean electricity from RPS and CES policies will grow from roughly 500 TWh today to 1700 TWh by 2050. Accounting for current supplies—including existing nuclear and hydroelectric generation eligible for CES targets—RPS and CES policies will require 900 TWh of new clean electricity by 2050, equivalent to roughly 3x the historical rate of RPS-buildout. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force, and so little compliance experience to-date. -REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$/MWh over the past year, just below ACP rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$35$/MWh by year-end 2023 and surpassing ACP levels in some states. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 4% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (11-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially-Resolved Characterization Techniques and Their Implications for Nuclear Debris Formation.

Debris from nuclear tests has a complex formation process and can inform multiple fields of study such as geology, atmospheric science, shock physics, and chemistry under extreme conditions. Macroscopic nuclear debris forms as the result of fireball interaction with surrounding materials (e.g., structural and environmental component), which rapidly undergo melting and vaporization followed by condensation, convective/diffusive mixing, and solidification over the course of seconds. In atmospheric events, some of this material may disperse over long distances, but much of the material is deposited close-in to ground zero, often in multicomponent, partially (or entirely) amorphous debris formations. During the U.S. nuclear testing program, this material was collected and analyzed, particularly for radionuclide composition. Fallout formation models were developed from nuclear test data based on such radionuclide compositional analyses. These models were not just used to understand fallout dispersion (i.e. the spread of radioactivity over geographical regions) but also guide radiochemical interpretations of historical nuclear tests.6 Developments in analytical techniques over the past several decades have made it possible to make new analyses on historical debris, some of which may be more than a half-century old. For example, inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) has been used to look at the trace elements in glassy fallout material from aboveground nuclear tests (including the Trinity test). Advanced analyses using X-ray absorption allowed for the measurement of oxidation state of fallout constituents, including actinides. The ability to measure trace actinides and their subsequent oxidation state is important to understanding how the surrounding environment may have influenced the resultant fallout composition and may have implications for why certain fractionation trends have been observed. Here we present data from historic nuclear test debris illustrating the power of spatially resolved methods to connect interaction of the near-field environment with the explosion and provide new insights into nuclear debris formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2023 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2022 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 states have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 17 states have a 100% CES or RPS target. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 30% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2022. Within some regions, particularly the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, RPS policies play a more central role in motivating RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: RPS and CES policies will require roughly 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of additional clean electricity supply by 2030 and 800 TWh by 2050, requiring total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 28% of electricity sales by 2050 (compared to 17% today). This amounts to roughly one-quarter of EIA’s projected RE growth through 2050. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force. -Renewable energy certificate (REC) pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$ /MWh over the past year, just below alternative compliance payment (ACP) rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$30$ /MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs (or SRECs) remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($\$200-450$ /MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 3.5% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (8-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Dissolution of Cr and Fe at 850°C in FLiNaK and FLiBe

Understanding the solubility of common alloying elements, such as Cr and Fe, in fluoride salts, can provide valuable insights into the degradation process of alloys in these salts and assist in modeling the attack observed in static and flowing conditions. Previous isothermal dissolution experiments at 550°-750°C in FLiNaK showed little effect of time or temperature on the amount of dissolution, which was not expected. Therefore, the purpose of this milestone was to extend those observations to 850°C where Ni-based alloys have been developed with 100+X better creep strength than the historic Hastelloy N alloy developed for molten salt reactors more than 50 years ago. Exposures were conducted in the same commercial FLiNaK and FLiBe salts used in the lower temperature exposures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

WE-Validate: An Open-Source Framework For Wind Power Validation

Grid operators rely on historical weather time series at existing and planned wind power plants to make informed decisions when planning for a future power grid with very high penetration of renewable power. While synthetic wind power time series have been developed based on historical weather models, their validation with actual power production data remains complex due to variations in modeling practices and methodologies. This paper introduces the WE-Validate framework, originally designed for wind speed validation and now enhanced for wind power validation with a graphical user interface to support users with minimal programming experience. Validation of wind power with WE-Validate is based on robust metrics consisting of RMSE, centered RMSE, average bias, average percent bias, mean absolute error, mean absolute percent error, cross correlation, and calculation of ramping magnitude, rate, and duration. This paper showcases WE-Validate with validation of synthetically derived power for a wind plant in Washington state for one month in 2018. Validation of the synthetic power from two comparison data sets compared with observations shows both comparison series have strong correlation with observed across weekly and monthly aggregations while suffering from persistent negative bias. The suite of metrics within WE-Validate facilitates immediate insight into the utility of the comparison data sets through compression across multiple axes. This user-friendly, open-source tool can be extended beyond wind power, making it a valuable resource for system planners and operators in different domains.

Moncheur de Rieudotte, Malcolm P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pilgrim Hot Springs Building Dimensions and Energy Modeling

This dataset was created to model the anticipated heating load of a geothermal project in development for the historical site of Pilgrim Hot Springs, and adds to the history of geothermal studies at the site. Models include an historical building (Nun's Quarters), existing modern buildings (Caretaker's Cabin, Igloo, Visitor's Cabin, Staff Shower Hut), and planned building projects (Changing Room, Greenhouse). Modeling results were used to determine feasible geothermal system typologies. The previous study linked below ("Village of Solomon Development of Energy Efficiency Building Standards for New Construction") feeds in to this project. The dataset includes DWG drawings and AKwarm energy models (.hm2) of a subset of existing buildings at the site of Pilgrim Hot Springs. All buildings were modeled in their current state, and some were additionally modeled with improvements to the building envelope. Energy modeling results exported from AKwarm include .htm and .png images.

AKwarm↗
DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities and data requirements for data-driven prognostics and health management in liquid hydrogen storage systems

During the past decade, Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has become an important set of tools in various areas of industry and academic reliability engineering. PHM consists of a variety of mathematical and computational methods used to support data-driven decision-making to increase the safety, availability, and reliability of complex engineering systems. In particular, PHM can provide crucial insight into reliability and safety design improvements for developing technologies where historical performance and failure data are limited. This is the case of hydrogen fueling and storage technologies. This work presents a high-level approach for designing data-driven PHM applications for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) storage systems for hydrogen fueling stations. This paper addresses core aspects of the design, development, and implementation of data-driven PHM applications that can improve the reliability assessment of hydrogen components. The analysis focuses on the relationship between data availability and diagnostic/prognostic capabilities; potential challenges; and integration schemes for current risk mitigation measures. We identify potential condition-monitoring data sources for key components in an LH 2 storage system, including storage tanks, piping, and pumps. Further, we determine that the short-term goals for the implementation of data-driven models in PHM frameworks in hydrogen systems should focus on developing adequate data collection and analysis strategies, as well as exploring the effect on reliability, safety, and regulations for hydrogen systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Joint Management and Optimization of Residential Natural Gas and Electricity Distribution Networks Coupled via Fuel Cells

The attractive features of natural gas as well as the growing electric power demand worldwide have created increasing interest in natural-gas-based distributed generation applications for electric distribution networks. Here, this paper investigates the interdependency between a residential natural gas network and an electric distribution network that are linked together via fuel cells. The modeling of the natural gas network is introduced first, and then the algorithm for gas flow study is presented. The optimal placement and sizing of fuel cell based distributed generation systems are formulated to minimize the losses in both the natural gas network and the electric distribution grid, subject to the constraints imposed by both networks. In addition, a probabilistic model for both gas and electricity demands is developed based on historical electricity and natural gas demand data. A K-means clustering method is used to determine the hourly load states to solve the joint probabilistic optimization problem. Simulation studies are carried out on an integrated system consisting of the IEEE 69-bus distribution network and a radial 27-node natural gas network to verify the developed optimization model and the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Guide to Engaging Underserved Communities in Commercial Energy Efficiency Field Validations

Underserved communities in the United States often experience the negative impacts of climate change and environmental degradation but enjoy few of the benefits of technological and environmental advances. The White House has addressed this inequity through the Justice40 initiative, which requires 40% of the benefits of select federal investments to be directed to underserved communities (The White House, 2022). Clean energy and energy efficiency are two highlighted investment categories, so the U.S. Department of Energy will guide implementation of the Justice40 initiative by, among other things, decreasing energy burdens, increasing parity in clean energy technology access and adoption, and increasing energy resiliency. A strategy for reaching these goals is to evaluate and validate new energy efficiency technologies in commercial buildings in underserved communities, where buildings may be older, smaller, and have deferred maintenance due to historical underinvestment. This paper develops guidance for researchers pursuing field validations with underserved communities. Historical redlining and past negative experiences with government and large institutions may make residents wary of participating in these field validations. Researchers, therefore, may need to spend more time building relationships and matching technologies to buildings. In this paper, we analyzed technical reports to identify common field validation building characteristics and conducted semi-structured expert conversations to identify key stages and major themes of engaging underserved communities. Results indicate there may be flexibility in site selection and there are steps researchers can take to support collaboration with communities. Results also suggest benefits to both the community and energy efficiency research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Distributed State Estimator for Interconnected Transmission and Distribution Networks (Final Report RPPR-1)

This project’s objective is to develop a combined transmission and distribution state estimator which accounts for very large system size and model complexity (by way of distributing the computations) and large number of solar PV units connected to the distribution system on multiple feeders. The project not only provides a robust formulation and solution to this problem but also tests the solution by implementing it on a well-established large utility system. It introduces several improvements with respect to the state of the art in existing state estimation software: (a) The developed state estimator (SE) allows robust and accurate monitoring of bidirectional flows in distribution systems which result due to the distributed energy sources which are not observable and thus not incorporated in generation dispatch; (b) Large utility systems with tens of thousands of transmission buses and hundreds of thousands of distribution nodes are difficult to model as a single integrated system. This shortcoming is addressed by developing a “scalable distributed computational framework” which allows splitting the ultra large system models into several small subsystems and coordinating their solution by a robust and practical state estimation formulation; (c) Measurement errors irrespective of their locations are detected and removed by the developed state estimator. Historically, transmission and distribution systems were analyzed and operated as two independent systems. Given the non-transposed short feeder sections, unevenly loaded phases, strictly radial configuration and unidirectional power flows in the absence of remote generation, distribution system analysis was customized to account for these characteristics. However, some of these assumptions are no longer valid (non-radial configuration, bidirectional power flows) and thus distribution system analysis should be revisited. Furthermore, in the past, the interaction between the transmission and distribution systems was quite passive, where distribution substations were modeled as lumped loads in the transmission system model. With substantial generation injected by renewable generation located in the distribution systems, such modeling will no longer be accurate. The developed state estimator facilitates proper monitoring of the interactions between the transmission and distribution systems and enables smart dispatch of these units which are made observable by the state estimator.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbonate clumped isotope analysis (Δ 47 ) of 21 carbonate standards determined via gas‐source isotope‐ratio mass spectrometry on four instrumental configurations using carbonate‐based standardization and multiyear data sets

Rationale Clumped isotope geochemistry examines the pairing or clumping of heavy isotopes in molecules and provides information about the thermodynamic and kinetic controls on their formation. The first clumped isotope measurements of carbonate minerals were first published 15 years ago, and since then, interlaboratory offsets have been observed, and laboratory and community practices for measurement, data analysis, and instrumentation have evolved. Here we briefly review historical and recent developments for measurements, share Tripati Lab practices for four different instrument configurations, test a recently published proposal for carbonate‐based standardization on multiple instruments using multi‐year data sets, and report values for 21 different carbonate standards that allow for recalculations of previously published data sets. Methods We examine data from 4628 standard measurements on Thermo MAT 253 and Nu Perspective IS mass spectrometers, using a common acid bath (90°C) and small‐sample (70°C) individual reaction vessels. Each configuration was investigated by treating some standards as anchors (working standards) and the remainder as unknowns (consistency standards). Results We show that different acid digestion systems and mass spectrometer models yield indistinguishable results when instrument drift is well characterized. For linearity correction, mixed gas‐and‐carbonate standardization or carbonate‐only standardization yields similar results. No difference is observed in the use of three or eight working standards for the construction of transfer functions. Conclusions We show that all configurations yield similar results if instrument drift is robustly characterized and validate a recent proposal for carbonate‐based standardization using large multiyear data sets. Δ 47 values are reported for 21 carbonate standards on both the absolute reference frame (ARF; also refered to as the Carbon Dioxide Equilibrated Scale or CDES) and the new InterCarb‐Carbon Dioxide Equilibrium Scale (I‐CDES) reference frame, facilitating intercomparison of data from a diversity of labs and instrument configurations and restandardization of a broad range of sample sets between 2006, when the first carbonate measurements were published, and the present.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗