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DOE OSTI2024

In Silico Human Mobility Data Science: Leveraging Massive Simulated Mobility Data (Vision Paper)

Human mobility data science using trajectories or check-ins of individuals has many applications. Recently, we have seen a plethora of research efforts that tackle these applications. However, research progress in this field is limited by a lack of large and representative datasets. The largest and most commonly used dataset of individual human trajectories captures fewer than 200 individuals, while datasets of individual human check-ins capture fewer than 100 check-ins per city per day. Thus, it is not clear if findings from the human mobility data science community would generalize to large populations. Since obtaining massive, representative, and individual-level human mobility data is hard to come by due to privacy considerations, the vision of this work is to embrace the use of data generated by large-scale socially realistic microsimulations. Informed by both real data and leveraging social and behavioral theories, massive spatially explicit microsimulations may allow us to simulate entire megacities at the person level. The simulated worlds, which do not capture any identifiable personal information, allow us to perform “in silico” experiments using the simulated world as a sandbox in which we have perfect information and perfect control without jeopardizing the privacy of any actual individual. In silico experiments have become commonplace in other scientific domains such as chemistry and biology, permitting experiments that foster the understanding of concepts without any harm to individuals. This work describes challenges and opportunities for leveraging massive and realistic simulated alternate worlds for in silico human mobility data science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Impact of Concentration and Extraction Methods on the Targeted Sequencing of Human Viruses from Wastewater

Sequencing human viruses in wastewater is challenging due to their low abundance compared to the total microbial background. This study compared the impact of four virus concentration/extraction methods (Innovaprep, Nanotrap, Promega, and Solids extraction) on probe-capture enrichment for human viruses followed by sequencing. Different concentration/extraction methods yielded distinct virus profiles. Innovaprep ultrafiltration (following solids removal) had the highest sequencing sensitivity and richness, resulting in the successful assembly of several near-complete human virus genomes. However, it was less sensitive in detecting SARS-CoV-2 by digital polymerase chain reaction (dPCR) compared to Promega and Nanotrap. Across all preparation methods, astroviruses and polyomaviruses were the most highly abundant human viruses, and SARS-CoV-2 was rare. These findings suggest that sequencing success can be increased using methods that reduce nontarget nucleic acids in the extract, though the absolute concentration of total extracted nucleic acid, as indicated by Qubit, and targeted viruses, as indicated by dPCR, may not be directly related to targeted sequencing performance. Further, using broadly targeted sequencing panels may capture viral diversity but risks losing signals for specific low-abundance viruses. Overall, this study highlights the importance of aligning wet lab and bioinformatic methods with specific goals when employing probe-capture enrichment for human virus sequencing from wastewater.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Human Host Cellular Response to HCoV-229E Infection Transcriptomics (ACS-DP1)

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Human Host Cellular Response to HCoV-229E Infection Proteomics (ACS-JM-DP2)

The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate the human host cellular response to wild-type Human coronavirus strain 229E (HCoV-229E) infection. Sample data was obtained for mock and infected immortalized human lung epithelial cells (A549) (MOI 5) nuclear extracts, immortalized human lung fibroblasts cells (MRC5) (MOI5) nuclear extracts, and primary human airway epithelial (HAE) (MOI 3) cells from lung tissue and processed for proteome analysis. Processed datasets are openly accessible from the download button and contain secondary processed proteomic results files and supporting metadata materials. Experimental proteomics samples were prepared using Limited Proteolysis (LiP) methods for Label-free quantification (LFQ) and global proteomic evaluation. Sample data was acquired using a Q-Exactive HF-X mass spectrometer and was processed and compiled using MaxQuant software (v.1.6.17.0). Processed proteomic data downloads include a sample naming key, processed MaxQuant results/parameters, and protein annotated relative abundance files. See corresponding primary data accessions below and Viral Experiment LiP Analysis source code supporting data transparency and reuse. Experimental transcriptomics samples were collected in parallel and processed for RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) as summarized under ACS-DP1 (https://data.pnnl.gov/group/nodes/dataset/34069).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Human Factors Challenges in Modernizing Nuclear Power Plant Control Rooms

Jeffrey Joe has been invited to give a presentation entitled, “Human Factors Challenges in Modernizing Nuclear Power Plant Control Rooms,” at the 2024 Human Systems Symposium. Experts conducting human factors and human systems research will gather and share research at this conference. This conference is a good opportunity to develop new business for INL via research collaborations, as attendees exchange knowledge and explore the latest trends, advancements, and challenges in the field of human systems research across the DOE national laboratories.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in predicting protein-protein interactions of understudied viruses: Arenavirus-human interactions

Understanding protein-protein interactions (PPIs) between viruses and host organisms is crucial for uncovering infection mechanisms and identifying potential therapeutic targets. The ability to generalize PPI predictive models across understudied viruses presents a significant challenge. In this work, we use arenavirus-human PPIs to illustrate the difficulties associated with model generalization, which are compounded by a lack of both positive and negative data. We employ a Transfer Learning approach to investigate arenavirus-human PPIs by utilizing models trained on better-studied virus-human and human-human PPIs. Additionally, we curate and assess four types of negative sampling datasets to evaluate their impact on model performance. Despite the overall high accuracies (93–99 %) and AUPRC scores (0.8–0.9) appearing promising, further analysis indicates that these performance metrics can be misleading due to data leakage, data bias, and overfitting, especially concerning under-represented viral proteins. We reveal these gaps and assess the impact of data imbalance using standard k-fold cross-validation and Independent Blind Testing with a Balanced Dataset, resulting in a drop in accuracy below 50 %. We propose a viral protein-specific evaluation framework that categorizes viral proteins into majority and minority classes based on their representation in the dataset, enabling comparison of model performance across these groups using balanced accuracies. This framework offers a more robust evaluation of model generalizability, addressing biases inherent in standard evaluation techniques and paving the way for more reliable PPI prediction models for understudied viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of the procoagulant phenotype of amniotic fluid across gestation in rhesus macaques and humans

Background: Amniotic fluid (AF) plays a key role in fetal development, yet the evolving composition of AF and its effects of hemostasis and thrombosis are poorly understood. Objectives: Here, we aim to determine how the evolving molecular composition of AF relates to its procoagulant properties. Methods: We analyzed the proteomes, lipidomes and procoagulant properties of AF obtained by amniocentesis from rhesus macaque and human pregnancies at gestational-age matched timepoints. Results When added to human plasma, both rhesus and human AF accelerated clotting time and fibrin generation. We identified proteomic modules associated with clotting time and enriched for coagulation-related pathways. Proteins known to be involved in hemostasis were highly correlated with each other and their intensity of expression varied across gestation in both rhesus and humans. Inhibition of contact pathway did not affect the procoagulant effect of AF. Blocking tissue factor pathway inhibitor reversed the ability of AF to block the generation of FXa. The prothrombinase activity of AF was inhibited by phospholipid inhibitors. The levels of phosphatidylserine in AF were inversely correlated with clotting time. AF promoted platelet activation and secretion in plasma. Conclusions: The addition of AF to plasma enhances coagulation in a manner dependent on phospholipids as well as the presence of proteases and other proteins that directly regulate coagulation. We describe a correlation between clotting time and expression of coagulation proteins and phosphatidylserine in both rhesus and human AF, supporting the use rhesus models for future studies of AF biology.

amniotic fluid↗

DOE OSTI2025

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to align dosimetry of the isobutyl metabolic series in rats and humans

Here, we developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in rats and humans for the isobutyl metabolic series including isobutyl acetate, isobutanol, isobutyraldehyde, and isobutyric acid. Chemical manufactures routinely use these compounds as solvents, for chemical synthesis, as potential biofuels, de-icing fluids, and additives for food and/or fragrance in consumer products. Human exposure to isobutyl compounds can occur through inhalation or oral routes. We previously developed a PBPK model for the propyl metabolic series and utilized it as a framework to create the isobutyl PBPK model due to the chemical similarities between the two series. To support model development, we measured in vitro metabolism of isobutyl acetate in rat and human blood and liver S9 fractions. Compared to rats, humans demonstrated faster isobutyl acetate hydrolysis in liver S9 fractions, while the hydrolysis rates in blood were similar between the two species. We used concentrations of isobutyl compounds measured in air and blood from rats exposed to isobutyl acetate and isobutanol as well as other published data to further parameterize the model. Following exposure to either isobutyl acetate or isobutanol, we observed isobutanol concentrations highest among the isobutyl compounds in the blood of rats. Overall, the model accurately predicts measured time course concentrations of isobutyl acetate, isobutanol, and isobutyric acid in available data in rats and humans. Sensitivity analyses identified alveolar ventilation rates, isobutyl metabolism rates, and cardiac output as the most sensitive parameters affecting concentrations of isobutyl compounds in blood. The isobutyl PBPK model enables comparisons of internal dose metrics across various isobutyl compound exposures and species and allows for calculation of equivalent external exposures that result in the same dose metric. Regulators can employ this PBPK model to predict and align internal dose metrics of isobutyl compounds for risk assessment purposes.

2-methyl-1-propanol↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dual Inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 3CL Protease and Human Cathepsin L Containing Glutamine Isosteres Are Anti-CoV-2 Agents

SARS-CoV-2 3CL protease (Main protease) and human cathepsin L are proteases that play unique roles in the infection of human cells by SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Both proteases recognize leucine and other hydrophobic amino acids at the P 2 position of a peptidomimetic inhibitor. At the P 1 position, cathepsin L accepts many amino acid side chains, with a partial preference for phenylalanine, while 3CL-PR protease has a stringent specificity for glutamine or glutamine analogues. We have designed, synthesized, and evaluated peptidomimetic aldehyde dual-target (dual-acting) inhibitors using two peptide scaffolds based on those of two Pfizer 3CL-PR inhibitors, Nirmatrelvir, and PF-835321. Our inhibitors contain glutamine isosteres at the P 1 position, including 2-pyridon-3-yl-alanine, 3-pyridinyl-alanine, and 1,3-oxazo-4-yl-alanine groups. Inhibition constants for these new inhibitors ranged from K i = 0.6–18 nM (cathepsin L) and K i = 2.6–124 nM (3CL-PR), for which inhibitors with the 2-pyridon-3-yl-alanal substituent were the most potent for 3CL-PR. The anti-CoV-2 activity of these inhibitors ranged from EC 50 = 0.47–15 μM. X-ray structures of the peptidomimetic aldehyde inhibitors of 3CL-PR with similar scaffolds all demonstrated the formation of thiohemiacetals with Cys 145 , and hydrogen-bonding interactions with the heteroatoms of the pyridon-3-yl-alanyl group, as well as the nitrogen of the N-terminal indole and its appended carbonyl group at the P 3 position. The absence of these hydrogen bonds for the inhibitors containing the 3-pyridinyl-alanyl and 1,3-oxazo-4-yl-alanyl groups was reflected in the less potent inhibition of the inhibitors with 3CL-PR. In summary, our studies demonstrate the value of a second generation of cysteine protease inhibitors that comprise a single agent that acts on both human cathepsin L and SARS-CoV-2 3CL protease. Such dual-target inhibitors will provide anti-COVID-19 drugs that remain active despite the development of resistance due to mutation of the viral protease. Such dual-target inhibitors are more likely to remain useful therapeutics despite the emergence of inactivating mutations in the viral protease because the human cathepsin L will not develop resistance. This particular dual-target approach is innovative since one of the targets is viral (3CL-PR) required for viral protein maturation and the other is human (hCatL) which enables viral infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural differences between human and mouse neurons and their implementation in generative AIs

Mouse and human brains have different functions that depend on their neuronal networks. We analyzed nanometer-scale three-dimensional structures of brain tissues of the mouse medial prefrontal cortex and compared them with structures of the human anterior cingulate cortex. The obtained results indicated that mouse neuronal somata are smaller and neurites are thinner than those of human neurons. We implemented these characteristics of mouse neurons in convolutional layers of a generative adversarial network (GAN) and a denoising diffusion implicit model (DDIM), which were then subjected to image generation tasks using photo datasets of cat faces, cheese, human faces, birds, and automobiles. The mouse-mimetic GAN outperformed a standard GAN in the image generation task using the cat faces and cheese photo datasets, but underperformed for human faces and birds. The mouse-mimetic DDIM gave similar results, suggesting that the nature of the datasets affected the results. Analyses of the five datasets indicated differences in their image entropy, which should influence the number of parameters required for image generation. The preferences of the mouse-mimetic AIs coincided with the impressions commonly associated with mice. The relationship between the neuronal network and brain function should be investigated by implementing other biological findings in artificial neural networks.

generative AI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Breaking the barrier of human-annotated training data for machine learning-aided plant research using aerial imagery

Machine learning (ML) can accelerate biological research. However, the adoption of such tools to facilitate phenotyping based on sensor data has been limited by (i) the need for a large amount of human-annotated training data for each context in which the tool is used and (ii) phenotypes varying across contexts defined in terms of genetics and environment. This is a major bottleneck because acquiring training data is generally costly and time-consuming. This study demonstrates how a ML approach can address these challenges by minimizing the amount of human supervision needed for tool building. A case study was performed to compare ML approaches that examine images collected by an uncrewed aerial vehicle to determine the presence/absence of panicles (i.e. “heading”) across thousands of field plots containing genetically diverse breeding populations of 2 Miscanthus species. Automated analysis of aerial imagery enabled the identification of heading approximately 9 times faster than in-field visual inspection by humans. Leveraging an Efficiently Supervised Generative Adversarial Network (ESGAN) learning strategy reduced the requirement for human-annotated data by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude compared to traditional, fully supervised learning approaches. The ESGAN model learned the salient features of the data set by using thousands of unlabeled images to inform the discriminative ability of a classifier so that it required minimal human-labeled training data. This method can accelerate the phenotyping of heading date as a measure of flowering time in Miscanthus across diverse contexts (e.g. in multistate trials) and opens avenues to promote the broad adoption of ML tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 neutralization titers reveals consistency between human and animal model serum and across assays

The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) requires ongoing monitoring to judge the ability of newly arising variants to escape the immune response. A surveillance system necessitates an understanding of differences in neutralization titers measured in different assays and using human and animal serum samples. We compared 18 datasets generated using human, hamster, and mouse serum and six different neutralization assays. Datasets using animal model serum samples showed higher titer magnitudes than datasets using human serum samples in this comparison. Fold change in neutralization of variants compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2, immunodominance patterns, and antigenic maps were similar among serum samples and assays. Most assays yielded consistent results, except for differences in fold change in cytopathic effect assays. Hamster serum samples were a consistent surrogate for human first-infection serum samples. These results inform the transition of surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 antigenic variation from dependence on human first-infection serum samples to the utilization of serum samples from animal models.

Cell Biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Host-specific adaptation in Fusarium oxysporum correlates with distinct accessory chromosome content in human and plant pathogenic strains

ABSTRACT Fusarium oxysporumis a cross-kingdom pathogen. While some strains cause disseminated fusariosis and blinding corneal infections in humans, others are responsible for devastating vascular wilt diseases in plants. To better understand the distinct adaptations ofF. oxysporumto animal or plant hosts, we conducted a comparative phenotypic and genetic analysis of two strains: MRL8996 (isolated from a keratitis patient) and Fol4287 (isolated from a wilted tomato [Solanum lycopersicum]). Infection of mouse corneas and tomato plants revealed that, while both strains cause symptoms in both hosts, MRL8996 caused more severe corneal disease in mice, whereas Fol4287 induced more pronounced wilting symptoms in tomato plants.In vitroassays using abiotic stress treatments revealed that the human pathogen MRL8996 was better adapted to elevated temperatures, whereas the plant pathogen Fol4287 was more tolerant to osmotic and cell wall stresses. Both strains displayed broad resistance to antifungal treatment, with MRL8996 exhibiting the paradoxical effect of increased tolerance to higher concentrations of the antifungal caspofungin. We identified a set of accessory chromosomes (ACs) that encode genes with different functions and have distinct transposon profiles between MRL8996 and Fol4287. Interestingly, ACs from both genomes also encode proteins with shared functions, such as chromatin remodeling and post-translational protein modifications. Our phenotypic assays and comparative genomics analyses lay the foundation for future studies correlating genotypes with phenotype and for developing targeted antifungals for agricultural and clinical uses. IMPORTANCE Fusarium oxysporumis a cross-kingdom fungal pathogen that infects both plants and animals. In addition to causing many devastating wilt diseases, this group of organisms was recently recognized by the World Health Organization as a high-priority threat to human health. Climate change has increased the risk ofFusariuminfections, asFusariumstrains are highly adaptable to changing environments. Deciphering fungal adaptation mechanisms is crucial to developing appropriate control strategies. We performed a comparative analysis ofFusariumstrains using an animal (mouse) and plant (tomato) host andin vitroconditions that mimic abiotic stress. We also performed comparative genomics analyses to highlight the genetic differences between human and plant pathogens and correlate their phenotypic and genotypic variations. We uncovered important functional hubs shared by plant and human pathogens, such as chromatin modification, transcriptional regulation, and signal transduction, which could be used to identify novel antifungal targets.

Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Human-Centered and Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations

Nuclear power plants in the United States are critical to the nation’s energy security, accounting for 20% of all electricity produced for the power grid. As energy needs grow, 100 gigawatts of additional nuclear power will be necessary by 2050, more than double the current capacity. Realizing this target requires cutting-edge technology like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) that can bring about significant increases in the level of automation. Human-centered AI (HCAI) is a combination of human-centered design (human factors, human-in-the-loop, etc.) with AI/ML to help produce an efficient and reliable system with full consideration for human engagement. This paper provides a comprehensive and novel discussion of HCAI considerations in nuclear power, introducing unique applications for the existing fleet as well as new advanced reactor designs. We include real-life use cases of AI applications to work management processes at nuclear power sites and highlight lessons learned for HCAI.

Hall, Anna↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatial top-down proteomics for the functional characterization of human kidney

Background: The Human Proteome Project has credibly detected nearly 93% of the roughly 20,000 proteins which are predicted by the human genome. However, the proteome is enigmatic, where alterations in amino acid sequences from polymorphisms and alternative splicing, errors in translation, and post-translational modifications result in a proteome depth estimated at several million unique proteoforms. Recently mass spectrometry has been demonstrated in several landmark efforts mapping the human proteoform landscape in bulk analyses. Herein, we developed an integrated workflow for characterizing proteoforms from human tissue in a spatially resolved manner by coupling laser capture microdissection, nanoliter-scale sample preparation, and mass spectrometry imaging. Results: Using healthy human kidney sections as the case study, we focused our analyses on the major functional tissue units including glomeruli, tubules, and medullary rays. After laser capture microdissection, these isolated functional tissue units were processed with microPOTS (microdroplet processing in one-pot for trace samples) for sensitive top-down proteomics measurement. This provided a quantitative database of 616 proteoforms that was further leveraged as a library for mass spectrometry imaging with near-cellular spatial resolution over the entire section. Notably, several mitochondrial proteoforms were found to be differentially abundant between glomeruli and convoluted tubules, and further spatial contextualization was provided by mass spectrometry imaging confirming unique differences identified by microPOTS, and further expanding the field-of-view for unique distributions such as enhanced abundance of a truncated form (1-74) of ubiquitin within cortical regions. Conclusions: We developed an integrated workflow to directly identify proteoforms and reveal their spatial distributions. Where of the 20 differentially abundant proteoforms identified as discriminate between tubules and glomeruli by microPOTS, the vast majority of tubular proteoforms were of mitochondrial origin (8 of 10) where discriminate proteoforms in glomeruli were primarily hemoglobin subunits (9 of 10). These trends were also identified within ion images demonstrating spatially resolved characterization of proteoforms that has the potential to reshape discovery-based proteomics because the proteoforms are the ultimate effector of cellular functions. Applications of this technology have the potential to unravel etiology and pathophysiology of disease states, informing on biologically active proteoforms, which remodel the proteomic landscape in chronic and acute disorders.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Human Factors Considerations for Hydrogen Rail Refueling and Maintenance

The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) contracted Sandia National Laboratories to review the risks introduced specifically through human interactions within hydrogen rail refueling and maintenance activities and present recommendations for future system development and implementation. Due to the lack of domestic hydrogen-powered trains at the time of review, observational data was collected on analogous existing systems to consider various ways hydrogen might be implemented within future designs. The team developed 50 human factors design guidelines through analysis of human risk factors. Because hydrogen rail systems are still in the early design stage, the resulting human factors guidelines represent general best practices and do not include specific design features. The research team recommends design and regulatory agencies include a Human Factors Engineer in the design and review process to ensure the guidelines are appropriately implemented and verified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗