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Heterogeneous estimations of non-pharmaceutical mitigation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of human behavior in mitigating the spread of disease. Nonetheless, human behavior is often overlooked in models of disease spread, particularly by underutilizing real-world data. We address this by estimating probabilities that individuals engage in behaviors that influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, between September 2020 and June 2022. These behaviors include wearing a mask, using public transportation, spending time with others, avoiding contact with others, and going to work. Our estimates account for the age and sex of individuals and are generated for every county in the United States. We utilized multiple open-source datasets and United States Census data to produce these estimates. Multiple datasets were used for validation, showing our estimates demonstrated comparable accuracy and robustness. Our estimates aid in understanding human behavior dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used to inform monthly or longer-term behavior in simulations of COVID-19. Moreover, the methods presented can be applied to other behaviors and features for future simulations of infectious disease.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Toward applied behavior analysis of life aloft

This article deals with systems at multiple levels, at least from cell to organization. It also deals with learning, decision making, and other behavior at multiple levels. Technological development of a human behavioral ecosystem appropriate to space environments requires an analytic and synthetic orientation, explicitly experimental in nature, dictated by scientific and pragmatic considerations, and closely approximating procedures of established effectiveness in other areas of natural science. The conceptual basis of such an approach has its roots in environmentalism which has two main features: (1) knowledge comes from experience rather than from innate ideas, divine revelation, or other obscure sources; and (2) action is governed by consequences rather than by instinct, reason, will, beliefs, attitudes or even the currently fashionable cognitions. Without an experimentally derived data base founded upon such a functional analysis of human behavior, the overgenerality of "ecological systems" approaches render them incapable of ensuring the successful establishment of enduring space habitats. Without an experimentally derived function account of individual behavioral variability, a natural science of behavior cannot exist. And without a natural science of behavior, the social sciences will necessarily remain in their current status as disciplines of less than optimal precision or utility. Such a functional analysis of human performance should provide an operational account of behavior change in a manner similar to the way in which Darwin's approach to natural selection accounted for the evolution of phylogenetic lines (i.e., in descriptive, nonteleological terms). Similarly, as Darwin's account has subsequently been shown to be consonant with information obtained at the cellular level, so too should behavior principles ultimately prove to be in accord with an account of ontogenetic adaptation at a biochemical level. It would thus seem obvious that the most productive conceptual and methodological approaches to long-term research investments focused upon human behavior in space environments will require multidisciplinary inputs from such wide-ranging fields as molecular biology, environmental physiology, behavioral biology, architecture, sociology, and political science, among others.

Review

Pilot-Induced Oscillations and Human Dynamic Behavior

This is an in-depth survey and study of pilot-induced oscillations (PIO's) as interactions between human pilot and vehicle dynamics; it includes a broad and comprehensive theory of PIO's. A historical perspective provides examples of the diversity of PIO's in terms of control axes and oscillation frequencies. The constituents involved in PIO phenomena, including effective aircraft dynamics, human pilot dynamic behavior patterns, and triggering precursor events, are examined in detail as the structural elements interacting to produce severe pilot-induced oscillations. The great diversity of human pilot response patterns, excessive lags and/or inappropriate gain in effective aircraft dynamics, and transitions in either the human or effective aircraft dynamics are among the key sources implicated as factors in severe PIO's. The great variety of interactions which may result in severe PIO's is illustrated by examples drawn from famous PIO's. These are generalized under a pilot-behavior-theory-based set of categories proposed as a classification scheme pertinent to a theory of PIO's. Finally, a series of interim prescriptions to avoid PIO is provided.

McRuer, Duane T.

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravitys impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

human systems integrations

An integrated approach to rotorcraft human factors research

As the potential of civil and military helicopters has increased, more complex and demanding missions in increasingly hostile environments have been required. Users, designers, and manufacturers have an urgent need for information about human behavior and function to create systems that take advantage of human capabilities, without overloading them. Because there is a large gap between what is known about human behavior and the information needed to predict pilot workload and performance in the complex missions projected for pilots of advanced helicopters, Army and NASA scientists are actively engaged in Human Factors Research at Ames. The research ranges from laboratory experiments to computational modeling, simulation evaluation, and inflight testing. Information obtained in highly controlled but simpler environments generates predictions which can be tested in more realistic situations. These results are used, in turn, to refine theoretical models, provide the focus for subsequent research, and ensure operational relevance, while maintaining predictive advantages. The advantages and disadvantages of each type of research are described along with examples of experimental results.

Hart, Sandra G.

Dynamically Learning Incentives for Load Control

As electrical generation becomes more distributed and volatile, and loads become more uncertain, controllability of distributed energy resources (DERs), regardless of their ownership status, will be necessary for grid reliability. Grid operators lack direct control over end-users' grid interactions, such as energy usage, but incentives can influence behavior -- for example, an end-user that receives a grid-driven incentive may adjust their consumption or expose relevant control variables in response. A key challenge in studying such incentives is the lack of data about human behavior, which usually motivates strong assumptions, such as distributional assumptions on compliance or rational utility-maximization. In this paper, we propose a general incentive mechanism in the form of a constrained optimization problem -- our approach is distinguished from prior work by modeling human behavior (e.g., reactions to an incentive) as an arbitrary unknown function. We propose feedback-based optimization algorithms to solve this problem that each leverage different amounts of information and/or measurements. We show that each converges to an asymptotically stable incentive with (near)-optimality guarantees given mild assumptions on the problem. Finally, we evaluate our proposed techniques in voltage regulation simulations on standard test beds. We test a variety of settings, including those that break assumptions required for theoretical convergence (e.g., convexity, smoothness) to capture realistic settings. In this evaluation, our proposed algorithms are able to find near-optimal incentives even when the reaction to an incentive is modeled by a theoretically difficult (yet realistic) function.

demand response

Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Exploration Measures Harmonized Across HERA, NEK, And ISS: Behavioral Medicine Risk

The Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Exploration Measures (HFBP-EM) suite is a set of standardized measures used to assess behavioral health and performance risks related to future exploration class space missions. The HFBP-EM addresses the Human Research Program’s (HRP) Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Team, Sleep, and Human Systems Integration Architecture risks. HFBP-EM were collected during Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) campaigns 4 and 5, and during SIRIUS 17 and 19 missions in the Russian Ground Based Experiment Complex, NEK, to document the feasibility, flexibility, and acceptability of these measures in analogs of spaceflight environments. A subset of the HFBP-EM suite was collected in spaceflight as part of the HRP Standard Measures in Spaceflight Project. Whenever possible, the HFBP-EM protocol and measures are the same across studies, differences across research settings (e.g., experimental manipulations, mission scenarios, and mission length) and implementation of the measures require that the data are harmonized to ensure comparable views across missions. The purpose of our project was to develop a harmonized database of analyzable HFBP-EM data from spaceflight and analog settings, and to summarize the trajectory of behavioral health and performance outcomes within and between mission settings. In this presentation, we will summarize the harmonized dataset and the trajectory of BMed related measures including depression, neurobehavioral function, mood, cognition, and operationally relevant individual performance over time and by campaign and mission.

S T Bell

Simulating Activities: Relating Motives, Deliberation and Attentive Coordination

Activities are located behaviors, taking time, conceived as socially meaningful, and usually involving interaction with tools and the environment. In modeling human cognition as a form of problem solving (goal-directed search and operator sequencing), cognitive science researchers have not adequately studied "off-task" activities (e.g., waiting), non-intellectual motives (e.g., hunger), sustaining a goal state (e.g., playful interaction), and coupled perceptual-motor dynamics (e.g., following someone). These aspects of human behavior have been considered in bits and pieces in past research, identified as scripts, human factors, behavior settings, ensemble, flow experience, and situated action. More broadly, activity theory provides a comprehensive framework relating motives, goals, and operations. This paper ties these ideas together, using examples from work life in a Canadian High Arctic research station. The emphasis is on simulating human behavior as it naturally occurs, such that "working" is understood as an aspect of living. The result is a synthesis of previously unrelated analytic perspectives and a broader appreciation of the nature of human cognition. Simulating activities in this comprehensive way is useful for understanding work practice, promoting learning, and designing better tools, including human-robot systems.

Clancey, William J.

The insertion of human dynamics models in the flight control loops of V/STOL research aircraft. Appendix 2: The optimal control model of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops

An overview is presented of research work focussed on the design and insertion of classical models of human pilot dynamics within the flight control loops of V/STOL aircraft. The pilots were designed and configured for use in integrated control system research and design. The models of human behavior that were considered are: McRuer-Krendel (a single variable transfer function model); and Optimal Control Model (a multi-variable approach based on optimal control and stochastic estimation theory). These models attempt to predict human control response characteristics when confronted with compensatory tracking and state regulation tasks. An overview, mathematical description, and discussion of predictive limitations of the pilot models is presented. Design strategies and closed loop insertion configurations are introduced and considered for various flight control scenarios. Models of aircraft dynamics (both transfer function and state space based) are developed and discussed for their use in pilot design and application. Pilot design and insertion are illustrated for various flight control objectives. Results of pilot insertion within the control loops of two V/STOL research aricraft (Sikorski Black Hawk UH-60A, McDonnell Douglas Harrier II AV-8B) are presented and compared against actual pilot flight data. Conclusions are reached on the ability of the pilot models to adequately predict human behavior when confronted with similar control objectives.

Zipf, Mark E.

Human and behavioral factors contributing to spine-based neurological cockpit injuries in pilots of high-performance aircraft: recommendations for management and prevention

In high-performance aircraft, the need for total environmental awareness coupled with high-g loading (often with abrupt onset) creates a predilection for cervical spine injury while the pilot is performing routine movements within the cockpit. In this study, the prevalence and severity of cervical spine injury are assessed via a modified cross-sectional survey of pilots of multiple aircraft types (T-38 and F-14, F-16, and F/A-18 fighters). Ninety-five surveys were administered, with 58 full responses. Fifty percent of all pilots reported in-flight or immediate post-flight spine-based pain, and 90% of fighter pilots reported at least one event, most commonly (> 90%) occurring during high-g (> 5 g) turns of the aircraft with the head deviated from the anatomical neutral position. Pre-flight stretching was not associated with a statistically significant reduction in neck pain episodes in this evaluation, whereas a regular weight training program in the F/A-18 group approached a significant reduction (mean = 2.492; p < 0.064). Different cockpit ergonomics may vary the predisposition to cervical injury from airframe to airframe. Several strategies for prevention are possible from both an aircraft design and a preventive medicine standpoint. Countermeasure strategies against spine injury in pilots of high-performance aircraft require additional research, so that future aircraft will not be limited by the human in control.

Case Reports

Discrete time modelization of human pilot behavior

This modelization starts from the following hypotheses: pilot's behavior is a time discrete process, he can perform only one task at a time and his operating mode depends on the considered flight subphase. Pilot's behavior was observed using an electro oculometer and a simulator cockpit. A FORTRAN program has been elaborated using two strategies. The first one is a Markovian process in which the successive instrument readings are governed by a matrix of conditional probabilities. In the second one, strategy is an heuristic process and the concepts of mental load and performance are described. The results of the two aspects have been compared with simulation data.

Cavalli, D.

Behavior of human horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex in response to high-acceleration stimuli

The horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) during transient, high-acceleration (1900-7100 deg/sec-squared) head rotations was studied in four human subjects. Such stimuli perturbed the angle of gaze and caused illusory movement of a viewed target (oscillopsia). The disturbance of gaze could be attributed to the latency of the VOR (which ranged from 6-15 ms) and inadequate compensatory eye rotations (median VOR gain ranged from 0.61-0.83).

Maas, E. F.

Human Activity Behavior and Gesture Generation in Virtual Worlds for Long- Duration Space Missions

A virtual worlds presentation technique with embodied, intelligent agents is being developed as an instructional medium suitable to present in situ training on long term space flight. The system combines a behavioral element based on finite state automata, a behavior based reactive architecture also described as subsumption architecture, and a belief-desire-intention agent structure. These three features are being integrated to describe a Brahms virtual environment model of extravehicular crew activity which could become a basis for procedure training during extended space flight.

Sierhuis, Maarten