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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗
NASA NTRS2005

Ice-Ridge Pile Up and the Genesis of Martian "Shorelines"

Unique geomorphologic features such as basin terraces exhibiting topographic continuity have been found within several Martian craters as shown in Viking, MOC, and THEMIS images. These features, showing similarity to terrestrial shorelines, have been mapped and cataloged with significant effort [1]. Currently, open wave action on the surface of paleolakes has been hypothesized as the geomorphologic agent responsible for the generation of these features [2]. As consequence, feature interpretations, including shorelines, wave-cut benches, and bars are, befittingly, lacustrine. Because such interpretations and their formation mechanisms have profound implications for the climate and potential biological history of Mars, confidence is crucial. The insight acquired through linked quantitative modeling of geomorphologic agents and processes is key to accurately interpreting these features. In this vein, recent studies [3,4] involving the water wave energy in theoretical open water basins on Mars show minimal erosional effects due to water waves under Martian conditions. Consequently, sub-glacial lake flattens the surface, produces a local velocity increase over the lake, and creates a deviation of the ice flow from the main flow direction [11]. These consequences of ice flow are observed at Lake Vostok, Antarctica an excellent Martian analogue [11]. Martian observations include reticulate terrain exhibiting sharp inter-connected ridges speculated to reflect the deposition and reworking of ice blocks at the periphery of ice-covered lakes throughout Hellas [12]. Our model determines to what extent ice, a terrestrial geomorphologic agent, can alter the Martian landscape. Method: We study the evolution of crater ice plugs as the formation mechanism of surface features frequently identified as shorelines. In particular, we perform model integrations involving parameters such as ice slope and purity, atmospheric pressure and temperature, crater shape and composition, and an energy balance between solar flux, geothermal flux, latent heat, and ablation. Our ultimate goal is to understand how an intracrater ice plug could create the observed shoreline features and how these

Barnhart, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Applications of ArcticDEM for measuring volcanic dynamics, landslides, retrogressive thaw slumps, snowdrifts, and vegetation heights

Topographical changes are of fundamental interest to a wide range of Arctic science disciplines faced with the need to anticipate, monitor, and respond to the effects of climate change, including geohazard management, glaciology, hydrology, permafrost, and ecology. This study demonstrates several geomorphological, cryospheric, and biophysical applications of ArcticDEM – a large collection of publicly available, time-dependent digital elevation models (DEMs) of the Arctic. Our study illustrates ArcticDEM's applicability across different disciplines and five orders of magnitude of elevation derivatives, including measuring volcanic lava flows, ice cauldrons, post-failure landslides, retrogressive thaw slumps, snowdrifts, and tundra vegetation heights. We quantified surface elevation changes in different geological settings and conditions using the time series of ArcticDEM. Following the 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga eruption in Iceland, ArcticDEM analysis mapped the lava flow field, and revealed the post-eruptive ice flows and ice cauldron dynamics. The total dense-rock equivalent (DRE) volume of lava flows is estimated to be (1431 ± 2) million m 3 . Then, we present the aftermath of a landslide in Kinnikinnick, Alaska, yielding a total landslide volume of (400 ± 8) × 103 m 3 and a total area of 0.025 km 2 . ArcticDEM is further proven useful for studying retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). The ArcticDEM-mapped RTS profile is validated by ICESat-2 and drone photogrammetry resulting in a standard deviation of 0.5 m. Volume estimates for lake-side and hillslope RTSs range between 40,000 ± 9000 m 3 and 1,160,000 ± 85,000 m 3 , highlighting applicability across a range of RTS magnitudes. A case study for mapping tundra snow demonstrates ArcticDEM's potential for identifying high-accumulation, late-lying snow areas. The approach proves effective in quantifying relative snow accumulation rather than absolute values (standard deviation of 0.25 m, bias of −0.41 m, and a correlation coefficient of 0.69 with snow depth estimated by unmanned aerial systems photogrammetry). Furthermore, ArcticDEM data show its feasibility for estimating tundra vegetation heights with a standard deviation of 0.3 m (no bias) and a correlation up to 0.8 compared to the light detection and ranging (LiDAR). The demonstrated capabilities of ArcticDEM will pave the way for the broad and pan-Arctic use of this new data source for many disciplines, especially when combined with other imagery products. The wide range of signals embedded in ArcticDEM underscores the potential challenges in deciphering signals in regions affected by various geological processes and environmental influences.

Chunli Dai↗
NASA NTRS2014

Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr−1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

ice dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1993

Flow of ices in the Ammonia-Water System

We have fabricated in the laboratory and subsequently deformed crystalline hydrates and partial melts of the water-rich end of the NH3-H2O system, with the aim of improving our understanding of physical processes occurring in icy moons of the outer solar system. Deformation experiments were carried out at constant strain rate. The range of experimental variables are given. Phase relationships in the NH3-H2O system indicate that water ice and ammonia dihydrate, NH3-2H2O, are the stable phases under our experiment conditions. X-ray diffraction of our samples usually revealed these as the dominant phases, but we have also observed an amorphous phase (in unpressurized samples only) and occasionally significant ammonia monohydrate, NH3-H2O. The onset of partial melting at the peritectic temperature at about 176 K appeared as a sharp transition in strength observed in samples of x(sub NH3) = 0.05 and 0.01, the effect of melt was less pronounced. For any given water ice + dihydrate alloy in the subsolidus region, we observed one rheological law over the entire temperature range from 175 K to about 140 K. Below 140 K, a shear instability similar to that occurring in pure water ice under the same conditions limited our ability to measure ductile flow. The rheological laws for the several alloys vary systematically from that of pure ice to that of dihydrate. Pure dihydrate is about 4 orders of magnitude less viscous than water ice just below the peritectic temperature, but because of a very pronounced temperature dependence in dihydrate (100 kJ/mol versus 43 kJ/mol for water ice) the viscosity of dihydrate equals or exceeds that of water ice at T less than 140 K. The large variation in viscosity of dihydrate with relatively small changes in temperature may be helpful in explaining the rich variety of tectonic and volcanic features seen on the surfaces of icy moons in the outer solar system.

Durham, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The calculation of flow over iced airfoils

Progress toward the development of a method for predicting the flowfield of an iced airfoil is described and shown to offer the prospect of a priori calculations of the effects of ice accretion and roughness on airfoil performance. The approach is based on interaction of inviscid flow solutions obtained by a panel method and improved upon by a finite-difference boundary-layer method which, operating in an inverse mode, incorporates viscous effects including those associated with separated flows. Results are presented for smooth, rough and iced airfoils as a function of angle of attack. Those for smooth and rough airfoils confirm the accuracy of the method and its applicability to surfaces with roughness similar to that associated with insect deposition and some forms of ice. Two procedures have been developed to deal with large ice accretion and their performance is examined and shown to be appropriate to the engineering requirements.

Cebeci, Tuncer↗
NASA NTRS2022

GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The basal thermal state (frozen or thawed) of the Greenland Ice Sheet is under-constrained due to few direct measurements, yet knowledge of this state is becoming increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow. The first synthesis of this state relied on inferences from widespread airborne and satellite observations and numerical models, for which most of the underlying datasets have since been updated. Further, new and independent constraints on the basal thermal state have been developed from analysis of basal and englacial reflections observed by airborne radar sounding. Here we synthesize constraints on the Greenland Ice Sheet's basal thermal state from boreholes, thermomechanical ice-flow models that participated in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), IceBridge BedMachine Greenland v4 bed topography, Making Earth Science Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Multi-Year Greenland Ice Sheet Velocity Mosaic v1 and multiple inferences of a thawed bed from airborne radar sounding. Most constraints can only identify where the bed is likely thawed rather than where it is frozen. This revised synthesis of the Greenland likely Basal Thermal State version 2 (GBaTSv2) indicates that 33 % of the ice sheet's bed is likely thawed, 40 % is likely frozen and the remainder (28 %) is too uncertain to specify. The spatial pattern of GBaTSv2 is broadly similar to the previous synthesis, including a scalloped frozen core and thawed outlet-glacier systems. Although the likely basal thermal state of nearly half (46 %) of the ice sheet changed designation, the assigned state changed from likely frozen to likely thawed (or vice versa) for less than 6 % of the ice sheet. This revised synthesis suggests that more of northern Greenland is likely thawed at its bed and conversely that more of southern Greenland is likely frozen, both of which influence interpretation of the ice sheet's present subglacial hydrology and models of its future evolution. The GBaTSv2 dataset, including both code that performed the analysis and the resulting datasets, is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6759384 (MacGregor, 2022).

Joseph A. MacGregor↗
NASA NTRS2014

A System of Conservative Regridding for Ice-Atmosphere Coupling in a General Circulation Model (GCM)

The method of elevation classes, in which the ice surface model is run at multiple elevations within each grid cell, has proven to be a useful way for a low-resolution atmosphere inside a general circulation model (GCM) to produce high-resolution downscaled surface mass balance fields for use in one-way studies coupling atmospheres and ice flow models. Past uses of elevation classes have failed to conserve mass and energy because the transformation used to regrid to the atmosphere was inconsistent with the transformation used to downscale to the ice model. This would cause problems for two-way coupling. A strategy that resolves this conservation issue has been designed and is presented here. The approach identifies three grids between which data must be regridded and five transformations between those grids required by a typical coupled atmosphere-ice flow model. This paper develops a theoretical framework for the problem and shows how each of these transformations may be achieved in a consistent, conservative manner. These transformations are implemented in Glint2, a library used to couple atmosphere models with ice models. Source code and documentation are available for download. Confounding real-world issues are discussed, including the use of projections for ice modeling, how to handle dynamically changing ice geometry, and modifications required for finite element ice models.

Ice-atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2003

Airborne Geophysics and Remote Sensing Applied to Study Greenland Ice Dynamics

Overview of project: we combined and jointly analysed geophysical, remote sensing and glaciological data for investigating the temporal changes in ice flow and the role of geologic control on glacial drainage. The project included two different studies, the investigation of recent changes of the Kangerlussuaq glacier and the study of geologic control of ice flow in NW Greenland, around the Humboldt, Petermann and Ryder glaciers.

Csatho, Beata M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Antarctic sea ice concentrations inferred from Nimbus 5 ESMR and Landsat imagery

Landsat Multispectral Scanner near-infrared band images (MSS-7) are used to calculate Antarctic ice concentration values and these results are quantitatively compared to those derived from Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) brightness temperature data. The set of images includes regions near the ice edge and near the continental boundary during late winter or spring. The percentage of ice cover is derived from the microwave data, using an algorithm that incorporates the brightness temperature emissivity and interpolated climatological physical temperatures and that is not dependent on spatial resolution. Cloud-free Landsat images are used to provide an alternative determination of large-scale ice concentrations, but this method is limited in its ability to resolve individual ice flows, especially near the ice edge. A proportional classification procedure is applied to Landsat data based on observed reflection and the results are correlated with similarly-derived ESMR ice concentration values. The corresponding ice concentration values are found to agree to + or - 15%, with the largest uncertainties occurring in regions of low ice concentration.

Comiso, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Geothermal Heating, Convective Flow and Ice Thickness on Mars

Our 3D calculations suggest that hydrothermal circulation may occur in the martian regolith and may significantly thin the surface ice layer on Mars at some locations due to the upwelling of warm convecting fluids driven solely by background geothermal heating. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Rosenberg, N. D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Motion of Major Ice Shelf Fronts in Antarctica from Slant Range Analysis of Radar Altimeter Data, 1978 - 1998

Slant range analysis of radar altimeter data from the Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 databases are used to determine barrier location at particular times, and estimate barrier motion (km/yr) for major Antarctic ice shelves. The barrier locations, which are the seaward edges or fronts of floating ice shelves, advance with time as the ice flows from the grounded ice sheets and retreat whenever icebergs calve from the fronts. The analysis covers various multiyear intervals from 1978 to 1998, supplemented by barrier location maps produced elsewhere for 1977 and 1986. Barrier motion is estimated as the ratio between mean annual ice shelf area change for a particular interval, and the length of the discharge periphery. This value is positive if the barrier location progresses seaward, or negative if the barrier location regresses (break-back). Either positive or negative values are lower limit estimates because the method does not detect relatively small area changes due to calving or surge events. The findings are discussed in the context of the three ice shelves that lie in large embayments (the Filchner-Ronne, Amery, and Ross), and marginal ice shelves characterized by relatively short distances between main segments of grounding line and barrier (those in the Queen Maud Land sector between 10.1 deg. W and 32.5 deg. E, and the West and Shackleton ice shelves). All the ice shelves included in the study account for approximately three-fourths of the total ice shelf area of Antarctica, and discharge approximately two-thirds of the total grounded ice area.

Zwally, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Radar Interferometry Studies of the Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets

The objectives of this work are to determine the current state of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Our approach combines different techniques, which include satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), radar and laser altimetry, radar ice sounding, and finite-element modeling. In Greenland, we found that 3.5 times more ice flows out of the northern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet than previously accounted for. The discrepancy between current and past estimates is explained by extensive basal melting of the glacier floating sections in the proximity of the grounding line where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat in the ocean. The inferred basal melt rates are very large, which means that the glaciers are very sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. Currently, it appears that the northern Greenland glaciers discharge more ice than is being accumulated in the deep interior, and hence are thinning. Studies of temporal changes in grounding line position using InSAR confirm the state of retreat of northern glaciers and suggest that thinning is concentrated at the lower elevations. Ongoing work along the coast of East Greenland reveals an even larger mass deficit for eastern Greenland glaciers, with thinning affecting the deep interior of the ice sheet. In Antarctica, we found that glaciers flowing into a large ice shelf system, such as the Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea, exhibit an ice discharge in remarkable agreement with mass accumulation in the interior, and the glacier grounding line positions do not migrate with time. Glaciers flowing rapidly into the Amudsen Sea, unrestrained by a major ice shelf, are in contrast discharging more ice than required to maintain a state of mass balance and are thinning quite rapidly near the coast. The grounding line of Pine Island glacier (see diagram) retreated 5 km in 4 years, which corresponds to a glacier thinning rate of 3.5 m/yr. Mass imbalance is even more negative on Thwaites Glacier. This sector of West Antarctica probably initiated its collapse decades or centuries ago, once the embaying ice shelves in front of them started to melt because of enhanced basal melting from warmer ocean waters. Additional information is contained in the original.

Rignot, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2005

Rheology of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Inferred from Satellite Radar Interferometry Data using an Inverse Control Method

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is surrounded by large floating ice shelves that spread under their own weight into the ocean. Ice shelf rigidity depends on ice temperature and fabrics, and is influenced by ice flow and the delicate balance between bottom and surface accumulation. Here, we use an inverse control method to infer the rigidity of the Ronne Ice Shelf that best matches observations of ice velocity from satellite radar interferometry. Ice rigidity, or flow law parameter B, is shown to vary between 300 and 900 kPa a(sup 1/3). Ice is softer along the side margins due to frictional heating, and harder along the outflow of large glaciers, which advect cold continental ice. Melting at the bottom surface of the ice shelf increases its rigidity, while freezing decreases it. Accurate numerical modelling of ice shelf flow must account for this spatial variability in mechanical characteristics.

ice velocity↗