Investigation of the reaction of the lunar surface to the impact of a lunar probe final report
Flash phenomena associated with hypervelocity impact for estimating flash from impact of lunar probe
LUNAR PROBE↗
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Global Flash Droughts Characteristics: Onset, Duration and Extent at Watershed Scales
Addressing impacts of flash droughts (FDs) on the water-food nexus requires a understanding of FD mechanisms and drivers at the watershed level. Examining climatic drivers, dry and wet spell lengths from 1980 to 2019, we analyzed FD spatial and temporal characteristics, emphasizing areal extent, onset time, and duration. Our findings reveal substantial variations in FDs among different watersheds. Notably, watersheds in the Southern Hemisphere are witnessing expanding, faster-developing, and longer-lasting FDs, aligning with climate variations in precipitation and temperature. Additionally, at the watershed scale, the onset and duration of FDs are more influenced by the intensity (magnitude and variability) of climatic drivers than the average length of wet and dry periods. FD-extents, however, correlate with both climatic conditions and wet and dry periods, underscoring watershed connectivity. Ultimately, our results underscore the necessity for research to comprehend the interplay between FDs and watershed characteristics and how it manifests in overall water resource management.
Maheshwari Neelam↗
Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin
Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated - EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks, and to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.
Adelaide Schmid↗
The Flux of Large Meteoroids Observed with Lunar Impact Monitoring
The flux of large meteoroids is not well determined due to relatively low number statistics, due mainly to the lack of collecting area available to meteor camera systems (10(2)-10(5) km2). Larger collecting areas are needed to provide reasonable statistics for flux calculations. The Moon, with millions of square kilometers of lunar surface, can be used as a detector for observing the population of large meteoroids in the tens of grams to kilogram mass range. This is accomplished by observing the flash of light produced when a meteoroid impacts the lunar surface, converting a portion of its kinetic energy to visible light detectable from Earth. A routine monitoring program at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has recorded over 300 impact flashes since early 2006. The program utilizes multiple 0.35 m (14 inch) Schmidt-Cassegrain telescopes, outfitted with video cameras using the 1/2 inch Sony EXview HAD CCDTM chip, to perform simultaneous observations of the earthshine hemisphere of the Moon when the lunar phase is between 0.1 and 0.5. This optical arrangement permits monitoring of approximately 3.8x10(6) km2 of lunar surface. A selection of 126 flashes recorded in 266.88 hours of photometric skies was analyzed, creating the largest and most homogeneous dataset of lunar impact flashes to date. Standard CCD photometric techniques outlined in [1] were applied to the video to determine the luminous energy, kinetic energy, and mass for each impactor, considering a range of luminous efficiencies. The flux to a limiting energy of 2.5x10(-6) kT TNT or 1.05×10(7) J is 1.03×10(-7) km(-2) hr(-1) and the flux to a limiting mass of 30 g is 6.14×10(-10) m(-2) yr(-1). Comparisons made with measurements and models of the meteoroid population indicate that the flux of objects in this size range is slightly lower (but within the error bars) than the power law distribution determined for the near Earth object population by [2].
Cooke, W. J.↗
An Analysis of the Lightning Jump Algorithm Using Geostationary Lightning Mapper Flashes
This project aims to implement the two-sigma lightning jump algorithm (LJA) developed using Lightning Mapping Arrays (LMAs), with GOES-16 Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) flashes, evaluate its performance, and identify any needed adjustments to the algorithm to optimize operational skill. The GLM is projected to have lower detection efficiency (DE) (70-90 percent) than operational LMAs (95-99 percent). The reduced GLM DE coupled with the coarser spatial resolution of the GLM could have impacts on flash rates and trends that could affect the LJA in various ways. Deep dives are conducted on four separate cases. Three of four cases show LMAs seeing two to three times as many flashes as the GLM. Only fifteen of twenty five GLM jumps saw increases in radar intensity while fourteen of nineteen LMA jumps did. These results suggest a larger sample sized study must be conducted to determine how to implement the LJA with the GLM.
Curtis, Nathan↗
Devices for measuring asteroid particle properties.
Impact mass flash spectrometer and multiple film and optical meteoroid detectors for measuring asteroid particle properties
Olds, R. H.↗
Behavior of hydrogen on nickel
Hydrogen adsorption behavior on polycrystalline nickel surfaces, using electron impact desorption flash filament with gas phase and ion spectrometer and vapor deposition
Gilbreath, W. P.↗
Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations
Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated -EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.
DEVELOP Project Summary↗
The Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Environment
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meteoroids↗
Diagnostic classification of flash drought events reveals distinct classes of forcings and impacts
Recent years have seen growing appreciation that rapidly intensifying flash droughts are significant climate hazards with major economic and ecological impacts. This has motivated efforts to inventory, monitor, and forecast flash drought events. Here we consider the question of whether the term “flash drought” comprises multiple distinct classes of event, which would imply that understanding and forecasting flash droughts might require more than one framework. To do this, we first extend and evaluate a soil moisture volatility–based flash drought definition that we introduced in previous work and use it to inventory the onset dates and severity of flash droughts across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1979–2018. Using this inventory, we examine meteorological and land surface conditions associated with flash drought onset and recovery. These same meteorological and land surface conditions are then used to classify the flash droughts based on precursor conditions that may represent predictable drivers of the event. We find that distinct classes of flash drought can be diagnosed in the event inventory. Specifically, we describe three classes of flash drought: “dry and demanding” events for which antecedent evaporative demand is high and soil moisture is low, “evaporative” events with more modest antecedent evaporative demand and soil moisture anomalies, but positive antecedent evaporative anomalies, and “stealth” flash droughts, which are different from the other two classes in that precursor meteorological anomalies are modest relative to the other classes. The three classes exhibit somewhat different geographic and seasonal distributions. We conclude that soil moisture flash droughts are indeed a composite of distinct types of rapidly intensifying droughts, and that flash drought analyses and forecasts would benefit from approaches that recognize the existence of multiple phenomenological pathways.
Mahmoud Osman↗
An Exponential Luminous Efficiency Model for Hypervelocity Impact into Regolith
The flash of thermal radiation produced as part of the impact-crater forming process can be used to determine the energy of the impact if the luminous efficiency is known. From this energy the mass and, ultimately, the mass flux of similar impactors can be deduced. The luminous efficiency, Eta is a unique function of velocity with an extremely large variation in the laboratory range of under 8 km/s but a necessarily small variation with velocity in the meteoric range of 20 to 70 km/s. Impacts into granular or powdery regolith, such as that on the moon, differ from impacts into solid materials in that the energy is deposited via a serial impact process which affects the rate of deposition of internal (thermal) energy. An exponential model of the process is developed which differs from the usual polynomial models of crater formation. The model is valid for the early time portion of the process and focuses on the deposition of internal energy into the regolith. The model is successfully compared with experimental luminous efficiency data from laboratory impacts and from astronomical determinations and scaling factors are estimated. Further work is proposed to clarify the effects of mass and density upon the luminous efficiency scaling factors
Swift, Wesley R.↗
Experimental space weathering of regolith material
Significant advances in the understanding of space weathering processes were recently reported. Submicroscopic iron blebs were produced in lunar simulant glass and natural terrestrial minerals by high-temperature reduction in controlled atmosphere furnaces. These experiments altered the samples' optical properties and microtextures so that they resembled those of extremely mature lunar soil. The results contributed to a revised model for natural reduction in the regolith. Subsequently, supporting results were obtained by reduction of lunar samples. Research to date has focused on reduction of three lunar surface components: basalt, pyroclastic glass, and mare soil. An extensive set of H reduction experiments with simulants has led to a detailed understanding of reaction mechanisms and kinetics. Reduction experiments using lunar basalt were recently conducted by Carbotek. Reduced samples from these test were analyzed. Reduction experiments on lunar glass 74220 were run at temperatures of 900-1100 C. Reduction efficiency of volcanic glass proved to be a function of the sample's FeO abundance and reaction temperature. We also reduced mare soil 75061 at temperatures of 900-1050 C. Partial reduction of FeO in olivine and pyroxene occurred, but was slower and less complete than reduction of ilmenite. Our experiments on simulants and lunar samples have indicated that the most readily reduced phases in the regolith are ilmenite and glass. Based on initial tests with simulants we proposed refinements to the accepted model for space weathering of the regolith. The impact of a micrometeoroid flash heats and melts and ejects from the impact point a small volume of soil that contains trapped solar wind H and C. Reduction occurs rapidly, while the melt volume is still in motion. When a droplet encounters unmelted soil, it envelopes cold mineral grains. The melt is chilled rapidly. Our analyses of experimentally reduced lunar basalt, glass, and mare soil support the proposed model for space weathering.
Mckay, D. S.↗
Flash Drought Onset and Development Mechanisms Captured With Soil Moisture and Vegetation Data Assimilation
Flash droughts evolve and intensify rapidly under the influence of anomalous atmospheric conditions. In this study, we investigate the role of assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) and vegetation properties in capturing the evolution and impacts of two flash droughts in the Northern Great Plains. We find that during 2016 drought triggered by anomalously high temperatures and excessive evaporative demands, multivariate data assimilation (DA) of MODIS-derived leaf area index (LAI) and Soil Moisture Active Passive SM within Noah-Multiparameterization model helps capture elevated transpiration at onset. Assimilation of LAI particularly helped model the resulting rapid decline in SM during onset with as high as 10.0% steeper rate of decline compared to the simulation without any assimilation. Modeled-SM anomalies exhibit a 7.5% and 11.7% increase in similarity with Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) data and U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) maps, respectively. In contrast, during 2017 flash drought driven by record-low precipitation during summers, SM assimilation resulted in largest rates of decline in rootzone SM, as large as 48.4% compared to results from no assimilation. Multivariate DA of SM and LAI results in 6.7% and 14.3% higher spatial similarity with ESI and USDM, respectively, and is necessary to model rapid intensification caused by anomalous precipitation deficits. This study elucidates the need to incorporate multiple observational constraints from remote sensing to effectively capture rapid onset rates, intensification, and severity of flash drought following different propagation mechanisms. This is fundamental for drought early detection to provide a wider window of response and implement efficient mitigation strategies.
Shahryar K. Ahmad↗
Probability of Detection Study on Impact Damage to Honeycomb Composite Structure using Thermographic Inspection
A probability of detection study was performed for the detection of impact damage using flash heating infrared thermography on a full scale honeycomb composite structure. The honeycomb structure was an intertank structure from a previous NASA technology demonstration program. The intertank was fabricated from IM7/8552 carbon fiber/epoxy facesheets and aluminum honeycomb core. The intertank was impacted in multiple locations with a range of impact energies utilizing a spherical indenter. In a single blind study, the intertank was inspected with thermography before and after impact damage was incurred. Following thermographic inspection several impact sites were sectioned from the intertank and cross-sectioned for microscopic comparisons of NDE detection and actual damage incurred. The study concluded that thermographic inspection was a good method of detecting delamination damage incurred by impact. The 90/95 confidence level on the probability of detection was close to the impact energy that delaminations were first observed through cross-sectional analysis.
Hodge, Andrew J.↗
Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)
CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Coadsorption of hydrogen and carbon monoxide on /111/ platinum
Hydrogen and carbon monoxide coadsorption on platinum single crystal surface, examining interactions and species formation by thermal flash and electron impact techniques in ultrahigh vacuum
Baldwin, V. H., Jr.↗
Recent Advancements in Lightning Jump Algorithm Work
In the past year, the primary objectives were to show the usefulness of total lightning as compared to traditional cloud-to-ground (CG) networks, test the lightning jump algorithm configurations in other regions of the country, increase the number of thunderstorms within our thunderstorm database, and to pinpoint environments that could prove difficult for any lightning jump configuration. A total of 561 thunderstorms have been examined in the past year (409 non-severe, 152 severe) from four regions of the country (North Alabama, Washington D.C., High Plains of CO/KS, and Oklahoma). Results continue to indicate that the 2 lightning jump algorithm configuration holds the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, with a probability of detection (POD) at 81%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 45%, a critical success index (CSI) of 49% and a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.66. The second best performing algorithm configuration was the Threshold 4 algorithm, which had a POD of 72%, FAR of 51%, a CSI of 41% and an HSS of 0.58. Because a more complex algorithm configuration shows the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, accurate thunderstorm cell tracking work must be undertaken to track lightning trends on an individual thunderstorm basis over time. While these numbers for the 2 configuration are impressive, the algorithm does have its weaknesses. Specifically, low-topped and tropical cyclone thunderstorm environments are present issues for the 2 lightning jump algorithm, because of the suppressed vertical depth impact on overall flash counts (i.e., a relative dearth in lightning). For example, in a sample of 120 thunderstorms from northern Alabama that contained 72 missed events by the 2 algorithm 36% of the misses were associated with these two environments (17 storms).
Schultz, Christopher J.↗