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DOE OSTI2023

Lost and Found Opportunities Around the Chlorine Worth Study

Los Alamos National Laboratory performed a series of critical experiments in 2021 to examine the worth of chlorine in plutonium-fueled systems. This series of experiments has been dubbed the “Chlorine Worth Study,” and the evaluation of the experiments was presented to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Technical Review Group in April, 2023. The primary purpose of these experiments was to enable validation of aqueous solutions crediting neutron absorption in 35 Cl. An external, independent view of the events leading up to the design and execution of these experiments indicates a missed opportunity to leverage sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis to assert validation without the experiments by taking an additional margin for the lack of direct validation of chlorine. On the other hand, the execution of these experiments also presents a rare opportunity to examine the efficacy of the S/U approach and extract useful information about the evaluated chlorine covariance data. TSUNAMI-1D models of representative application solutions were created and used to generate sensitivity data. Varying plutonium and chlorine concentrations were considered to examine the impact of these differences on the chlorine sensitivities and uncertainties. The data-induced uncertainty in k eff resulting from chlorine was calculated directly from uncertainty information calculated in the TSUNAMI-1D sequence. In all cases, this uncertainty was less than 0.1 %Δk. This result could potentially be used to justify a reactivity margin to account for the validation gap related to chlorine in the validation set. On the other hand, given that the experiments were performed, the community should endeavor to extract as much value from them and their results as possible. The results can be used to examine the actual bias associated with chlorine in these systems once the evaluations have been released. These data can be compared with the data-induced uncertainty margin discussed above to test the sufficiency of the validation gap penalty. This result will provide an indication of the performance of the chlorine covariance data specifically and the S/U validation approach generally. More advanced S/U techniques may also be employed to determine reactivity sensitivities associated with the chlorine in the experiments, potentially generating a more robust test of the chlorine covariance data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2010

World, We Have Problems: Simulation for Large Complex, Risky Projects, and Events

Prior to a spacewalk during the NASA STS/129 mission in November 2009, Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) correspondent William Harwood reported astronauts, "were awakened again", as they had been the day previously. Fearing something not properly connected was causing a leak, the crew, both on the ground and in space, stopped and checked everything. The alarm proved false. The crew did complete its work ahead of schedule, but the incident reminds us that correctly connecting hundreds and thousands of entities, subsystems and systems, finding leaks, loosening stuck valves, and adding replacements to very large complex systems over time does not occur magically. Everywhere major projects present similar pressures. Lives are at - risk. Responsibility is heavy. Large natural and human-created disasters introduce parallel difficulties as people work across boundaries their countries, disciplines, languages, and cultures with known immediate dangers as well as the unexpected. NASA has long accepted that when humans have to go where humans cannot go that simulation is the sole solution. The Agency uses simulation to achieve consensus, reduce ambiguity and uncertainty, understand problems, make decisions, support design, do planning and troubleshooting, as well as for operations, training, testing, and evaluation. Simulation is at the heart of all such complex systems, products, projects, programs, and events. Difficult, hazardous short and, especially, long-term activities have a persistent need for simulation from the first insight into a possibly workable idea or answer until the final report perhaps beyond our lifetime is put in the archive. With simulation we create a common mental model, try-out breakdowns of machinery or teamwork, and find opportunity for improvement. Lifecycle simulation proves to be increasingly important as risks and consequences intensify. Across the world, disasters are increasing. We anticipate more of them, as the results of global warming prove more and more ominous-glaciers melting in Bolivia, floods in Saudi Arabia, the Maldives sinking and salt rising along the Nile. Fear grows about potential asteroid crashes and nightly television images raise awareness of victims of floods, hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, fire, tornado, tsunami, bombings, landslides, and cross-boundary criminality. The Red Cross says that disasters impact 250 million people each year. That means that 700,000 people are having a very bad day today. Modeling and simulation is and must be part of the solution.

Elfrey, Priscilla↗

NASA NTRS2023

Risk Assessment for Asteroid Impact Threat Scenarios

Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.

SMD↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment with SCALE

A SCALE model was developed for the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) benchmark that was recently added to the International Handbook of Evaluated Reactor Physics Benchmark Experiments. This SCALE model served as a basis for criticality calculations and nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with the Monte Carlo code Shift and the TSUNAMI computational capabilities in the SCALE code system. The focus of this work is the assessment of the impact of nuclear data on the calculated eigenvalue results in support of the discussion of differences between the calculated and the experimental eigenvalue result. The differences in the eigenvalues obtained using the ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VII.1, and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data libraries cover a relatively small range of ~230 pcm. Since eigenvalue sensitivity of the MSRE is dominated by the neutron multiplicity and neutron capture of 235 U and elastic scattering in graphite, relevant changes in the ENDF/B libraries for nuclear reactions (such as carbon capture) that caused large differences in other graphite-moderated systems did not have a significant impact. Propagation of nuclear data uncertainty results in an eigenvalue uncertainty of ~700 pcm with the major contributors being 235 U neutron multiplicity, graphite elastic scattering, and 7Li neutron capture. All calculations resulted in large differences of ~2000 pcm in eigenvalue compared to the benchmark experimental value. Several potential contributors to this difference—including uncertainties and gaps in the knowledge of the material, geometry, and nuclear data—were identified. Simplified models of the full MSRE core were developed, and similarity assessments were conduced with the full MSRE core model. It was found that simplified models can serve as adequate surrogates of the full-core model such that they can be used for performing selected nuclear data performance assessments with a lower computational burden.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-13211-DND

On March 11, 2011 the Great Tohoku Earthquake occurred approximately 70 kilometers off the coast of Japan. This magnitude 9.0 earthquake was closely followed by a massive tsunami that reached 7 meters in height. Using NASA Earth Observation Systems (EOS), we will assess the damage to the area impacted by this disaster. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) will be used to create normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maps and MODIS on Aqua and Terra will be used to produce enhanced vegetation index (EVI) maps. CALIPSO and HYSPLIT will also be used to track smoke released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to assess where the radioactive steam traveled to. An analysis of the economic impact of this disaster will be conducted to help policy makers in the United States and in Japan. This research will highlight the ability of NASA EOS in providing support for disaster response around the world.

Malcom Jones, Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Powering the Blue Economy Foundational Research & Development Topics Reliability for Marine Energy Power Systems

Ocean observing platforms are deployed across the world’s oceans to collect meteorological and oceanographic data. Current technology makes use of solar panels and battery banks to provide power to these platforms, which can be challenging at high latitudes due to lack of solar insolation and cold temperatures. Marine renewable energy (MRE) generation offers a potential improvement in consistent power generation throughout the year for this use on ocean observation buoys. This report analyzes existing reliability of high latitude coastal weather buoys and tsunami detection buoys to determine performance standards that MRE generation sources must meet to become viable power sources for these remote systems. Using measurements recorded from the U.S. National Data Buoy Center’s coastal weather buoys and tsunami detection buoys, the analysis calculated the historic data availability – or the percentage of time a measurement is recorded – to evaluate the reliability of ocean observation buoys. The results show that coastal weather buoys operate at 74% data availability and the tsunami detection systems operate at an average 72% data availability. The results describe the total reliability of the system, including many different types of failures not associated with the power system such as mooring failures or equipment failures caused by extreme weather. Power system outages may only account for a small portion of the system failures. Reliability is an important design criterion for the power system of ocean observation platforms. Future power systems that would be designed for these buoys, such as an MRE generator, need to have a minimum reliability of 72% and 74% to meet the overall performance of the weather buoys and tsunami buoys, respectively. However, power system reliability likely needs to be much higher than overall system reliability, so that power system outages do not negatively impact the overall performance of the buoy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1983

Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, K-Ca, O, and H isotopic study of Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sediments, Caravaca, Spain Evidence for an oceanic impact site

The results of isotopic and trace-element-abundance analyses of Ir-enriched Cretaceous-Tertiary-boundary clay sediments from Caravaca, Spain, and of adjacent carbonate and marl layers, are presented. Acetic-acid and HCl leachates and residues were analyzed by isotope dilution to determine K, Rb, Sr, Sm, and Nd concentrations and Sr-87/Sr-86 and Nd-143/Nd-144 ratios. The stable isotope ratios delta-D, delta-(C-13), and delta-(0-18) were also determined. The results are presented in tables and graphs and compared with published data on the Caravaca sediments and on samples from other locations. The boundary clay is found to be distinguished from the adjacent layers by its isotopic ratios and to be of mainly terrestrial, lithospheric (deeper than 3-km) origin. Although submarine-weathering effects are evident and difficult to quantify, the degree of variation in Ni, Ir, Sr, and REE concentrations is considered too large to be attributed to postdepositional processes alone. These findings are seen as evidence for the ocean impact of a large single asteroid producing a worldwide blanket of ejecta, a large injection of water vapor into the atmosphere, and perhaps a gigantic tsunami, at the end of the Cretaceous period.

Depaolo, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Impact of an asteroid or comet in the ocean and extinction of terrestrial life

Finite difference calculations describing the impact mechanics associated with a 10 to 30 km diameter silicate or water object impacting a 5 km deep ocean overlying a silicate solid planet demonstrate that from 12 to 15% of the bolide energy resides in the water. It is speculated that minimal global tsunami run-up heights on the continents would be 300-400 meters, and that such waves would inundate all low altitude continental areas, and strip and silt-over virtually all vegetation. As a result the terrestrial animal food chain would be seriously perturbed. This could in turn cause extinction of large terrestrial animals.

Ahrens, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Environmental Perturbations Caused by the Impacts of Comets and Asteroids on Earth

The extinction mechanisms proposed at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary are reviewed and related to the impact of asteroids or comets in general. For impact energies below 10(exp 4) Megatons (less than 6 x 10(exp 4) years; asteroid diameter less than 650 m), blast, earthquake, and fire may destroy local areas up to 10(exp 5) square m. Tidal waves could flood a kilometer inland over entire ocean basins. The energy range from 105 to 106 Megatons (less than 2 x 10(exp 6) years; asteroid diameter less than 3 km) is transitional. Dust lifted, sulfur released from within impacting asteroids, and soot from fires started by comets can produce climatologically significant optical depths of 10. At energies beyond 10(exp 7) Megatons, blast and earthquake damage is regional (10(exp 6) square cm). Tsunami cresting to 100 m and flooding 20 km inland will sweep the coastal zones of the world's oceans. Fires will be set globally. Light levels may drop so low from the smoke, dust and sulfate that vision is not possible. At energies approaching 10(exp 9) Megatons the ocean surface waters may be acidified by sulfur. The combination of these effects would be devastating.

Toon, Owen B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Increased Latent Generations on Sensitivity Calculations with SCALE

Analyses of cross section sensitivity data from systems with fissile material allow analysts to associate an importance for each material, nuclide, reaction, and neutron energy by simulating real world criticality scenarios. Although criticality safety validation efforts can be guided by the cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty data generated for a particular system, these calculations can often be computationally expensive and sometimes cumbersome without proper guidance. The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package has several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup and continuous energy (CE) capabilities. The release of SCALE 6.3 has three different CE methods for generating cross section sensitivity data: (1) the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) the IFP method with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Although the CLUTCH method has additional parameters for generating sensitivity data files relative to the IFP method, all three methods use latent generations, which are the generations between an event (i.e., fission) and the assessment of importance based on the asymptotic population of progeny neutrons. Increasing the number of latent generations in a calculation leads to increased discrimination of the sensitivity coefficients but at the cost of the increased uncertainty associated with those generated values. Analysts must balance the accuracy of the sensitivity calculations and its uncertainty with the associated computational cost involved in generating the values. This paper discusses the impact of adjusting the latent generation parameter for a range of sensitivity values and how these changes compare with the direct perturbation values obtained from a change of ±0.5% Δ k in both benchmark and safety application models. Two benchmarks from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the MPC-32 dual purpose canister for spent nuclear fuel are used for analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1988

Catastrophic volcanism

Since primitive times, catastrophes due to volcanic activity have been vivid in the mind of man, who knew that his activities in many parts of the world were threatened by lava flows, mudflows, and ash falls. Within the present century, increasingly complex interactions between volcanism and the environment, on scales not previously experienced historically, have been detected or suspected from geologic observations. These include enormous hot pyroclastic flows associated with collapse at source calderas and fed by eruption columns that reached the stratosphere, relations between huge flood basalt eruptions at hotspots and the rifting of continents, devastating laterally-directed volcanic blasts and pyroclastic surges, great volcanic-generated tsunamis, climate modification from volcanic release of ash and sulfur aerosols into the upper atmosphere, modification of ocean circulation by volcanic constructs and attendent climatic implications, global pulsations in intensity of volcanic activity, and perhaps triggering of some intense terrestrial volcanism by planetary impacts. Complex feedback between volcanic activity and additional seemingly unrelated terrestrial processes likely remains unrecognized. Only recently has it become possible to begin to evaluate the degree to which such large-scale volcanic processes may have been important in triggering or modulating the tempo of faunal extinctions and other evolutionary events. In this overview, such processes are examined from the viewpoint of a field volcanologist, rather than as a previous participant in controversies concerning the interrelations between extinctions, impacts, and volcanism.

Lipman, Peter W.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report: Improving NOAA's PORTS(R) Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including nautical charting, maritime navigation, hydrography, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings. Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years. NOAA s PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System) DST (decision support tool), managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, supports safe and cost-efficient navigation by providing ship masters and pilots with accurate real-time information required to avoid groundings and collisions. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s PORTS. NASA has a long heritage of collecting data for ocean research, including its current Terra and Aqua missions. Numerous other missions provide additional important information for coastal management issues, and data collection will continue in the coming decade with such missions as the OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission). OSTM will provide data on sea-surface heights for determining ocean circulation, climate change, and sea-level rise. We suggest that NASA incorporate OSTM altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA s PORTS DST in support of NASA s Coastal Management National Application with secondary support to the Disaster Management and Public Health National Applications.

Guest, DeNeice↗

NASA NTRS2017

Maturation of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

As described at IPPW 12 [1], NASA initiated a new research activity focused on Planetary Defense (PD) on October 1, 2014. The overarching function of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is to provide capabilities to assess impact damage of any Near-Earth Object (NEO) that could inflict on the Earth. The activity includes four interrelated efforts: Initial Conditions (at the atmospheric entry interface); Entry Modeling (energy deposition in the atmosphere); Hazards (on the surface including winds, over pressures, thermal exposures, craters, tsunami and earthquakes) and Risk (physics-based). This paper outlines progress by ATAP and highlights achievements that are complimentary to activities of interest to the International Planetary Probe community. The ATAPs work is sponsored by NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), a part of the agency's Science Mission Directorate [1] Arnold, J. O., et. al., Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense, IPPW 12 Cologne Germany, June 15-19. 2015.

Entry and Breakup↗

NASA NTRS2006

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Improving NOAA's Tides and Currents Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including hydrography, nautical charting, maritime navigation, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings (NOAA, 2002; Digby et al., 1999). Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years (NOAA, 2006). NOAA s Tides & Currents DST (decision support tool, managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, is the portal to a vast collection of oceanographic and meteorological data (historical and real-time), predictions, and nowcasts and forecasts. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s Tides & Currents.

Guest, DeNeice C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

UTM and D-NET: NASA and JAXA's Collaborative Research on Integrating Small UAS with Disaster Response Efforts

Natural disasters, such as flooding, wildfire, hurricane, tornadoes, earthquakes and tsunamis, pose challenges in preserving human life and minimizing the damages to a region. During catastrophic events, timely response of disaster relief personnel, an efficient deployment of resources in the recovery effort, and coordinated information sharing amongst different relief agencies can make a substantial difference in responding to those impacted by the disaster. Many relief activities currently utilize both ground personnel and manned airborne assets during different phases of the disaster response. Typically, multiple organizations support relief activities and this often creates logistics coordination challenges between agencies which can result in wasted time or resources. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been developing an "Integrated aircraft operation system for disaster relief (D-NET)", which assists collection and sharing of disaster information through the integrated operation of aircraft such as helicopters, aircraft, and satellites, for efficient and safe rescue operations by disaster relief aircraft. Due to the advancement in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) technologies, public safety organizations have started incorporating small UAS (sUAS) as an asset in their disasters response activities. To address the airspace integration challenges of the influx of sUAS in the United States the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), under the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) project, has been engaged in research to enable large-scale commercial applications of sUAS operating in low altitude airspace. This paper presents the integration of D-NET, which incorporate sUAS in the planning, information sharing, and operation support of disasters response activities, and UTM, which provides airspace management to enable large scale high density operations. The integration of the DNET and UTM systems enables coordination, data sharing, and airspace management to improve the timeliness of the disaster response, enable relief organization to reduce cost and overhead by using UAS assets and still maintain airspace safety during the relief activities.

UTM↗

NASA NTRS2012

Leveraging Data Intensive Computing to Support Automated Event Services

A large portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- or event-based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon. A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an EI Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon," and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a finite duration and an associated geolocation as a function of time; its therefore an entity in four-dimensional . (4D) spatiotemporal space. The interests of Earth scientists typically rivet on Earth Science phenomena with potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life, but broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events - usually beginning by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena. such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. And even for these high-impact phenomena, the availability of comprehensive records is still only a recent development. A major reason for the lack of comprehensive ,records for the majority of the ES phenomena is the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property and are thus not consistently tracked. monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack commonly accepted criteria for definitions. However. the lack of comprehensive records is also due to the increasingly prohibitive volume of observations and model data that must be examined. NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data and steadily increases. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. In the following we present a couple motivating scenarios, demonstrating the issues faced by Earth scientists studying ES phenomena.

Clune, Thomas L.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Environmental Perturbations Caused by the Impacts of Asteroids and Comets

We review the major mechanisms proposed to cause extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary following an asteroid impact. We then discuss how the proposed extinction may relate to the impact of asteroids or comets in general. We discuss the limitations of these mechanisms in terms of the spatial scale that may be affected, and the time scale over which the effects may last. Our goal is to provide relatively simple prescriptions for evaluating the importance of colliding objects having a range of energies and compositions. We also identify the many uncertainties concerning the environmental effects of impacts. We conclude that, for impact energies below about 10(exp 4) Mts (megatons of TNT equivalent) - i.e., impact frequencies less than in 6 x 10(exp 4) yr, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters smaller than about 400 m and 650 m, respectively - blast damage, earthquakes, and fires should be important on a scale of 10(exp 4) or 10(exp 5) km (exp 2), which corresponds to the area damaged in many natural disasters of recent history. However, tsunami could be more damaging, flooding a kilometer of coastal plane over entire ocean basins. In the energy range of 10(exp 4) to 10 (exp 5) Mts (intervals up to 3 x 10(exp 5) yr; comets and asteroids with sizes up to 800 m and 1.5 km, respectively) water vapor injections and ozone loss become significant on the global scale. In the submicrometer dust injection fraction from the pulverized target material is much higher than is presently thought to be most likely, then dust injection could be important in this energy range.

Toon, Owen B.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Cratering on Titan: A Pre-Cassini Perspective

The NASA-ESA Cassini mission, comprising a formidably instrumented orbiter and parachute-borne probe to be launched this October, promises to reveal a crater population on Titan that has been heretofore hidden by atmospheric haze. This population on the largest remaining unexplored surface in the solar system will be invaluable in comparative planetological studies, since it introduces evidence of the atmospheric effects of cratering on an icy satellite. Here, I highlight some impact features we may hope to find and could devote some modeling effort toward. Titan in a Nutshell: Radius= 2575 km. Density= 1880 kg/cubic m consistent with rock-ice composition. Surface pressure = 1.5 bar. Surface gravity = 1.35 m/square s Atmosphere -94% N2 6% CH, Surface temperature = 94K Tropopause temperature = 70K at 40 km alt. Probable liquid hydrocarbon deposits exist on or near the surface.Titan in a Nutshell: Radius= 2575 km. Density= 1880 kg/cubic m consistent with rock-ice composition. Surface pressure = 1.5 bar. Surface gravity = 1.35 m/square s; Atmosphere about 94% N2 6% CH, Surface temperature = 94K Tropopause temperature = 70K at 40 km alt. Probable liquid hydrocarbon deposits exist on or near the surface. Titan is comparable to Callisto and Ganymede for strength/gravity, Mars/Earth/Venus for atmospheric interaction, and Hyperion, Rhea, and Iapetus for impactor distribution. The leading/trailing asymmetry of crater density from heliocentric impactors is expected to be about 5-6, in the absence of resurfacing. Any Saturnocentric impactor population is likely to alter this. In particular the impact disruption of Hyperion is noted; because of the 3:4 orbital resonance with Titan, fragments from the proto-Hyperion breakup would have rapidly accreted onto Titan. Titan's resurfacing history is of course unknown. The disruption of impactors into fragments that individually create small craters is expected to occur. A crude estimate suggests a maximum separation of about 2 km (compared with 4 km on Venus, or 0.5 km on Earth). Crater chains are unlikely on Titan, since impactors must pass close enough to Saturn to be tidally disrupted; as a result, they would suffer aerodynamic disruption. Crater counting on adjacent satellites gives densities of about 200 per 10 (exp 6) square km for 20-km-diameter craters. However, the presence of a thick atmosphere leads to atmospheric shielding, depleting the relative abundance of small craters. This has been evaluated by models, and the relative abundance of small craters may be due to a diagnostic atmospheric collapse. A number of radar-dark "splotches" have been detected on Venus; these have been attributed to the interaction of the surface with the atmospheric shockwave produced by the Tunguska-like explosion of a bolide in the atmosphere. Simple analogy suggests that similar features might occur on Titan, but the shocked mass density (which controls the momentum coupling between the surface and the shockwave) of Titan's cold N2 atmosphere is about 20x smaller than that of Venus's hot CO2 atmosphere. Unless ice is much more easily turned to rubble than is rock, such features seem less probable on Titan. When the energy deposited by an impact forms a fireball with an equilibrate greater than one scale height, the fireball expands upward and can distribute ejecta. on ballistic exoatmospheric trajectories. On Venus this process is believed to be responsible for the parabolic features; the interaction of various-sized particles falling through the atmosphere with the zonal wind field winnows the particles to form a parabolic deposit. Although such a process is possible on Titan, the large scale height at higher altitudes would make it more difficult. Comparison with craters on other icy satellites suggests that craters on Titan will be fairly shallow (depth/diameter about 0.1) and craters greater than 10 km in diameter will have central peaks or domed bases, perhaps with central pits. The formation of ejecta. blankets may involve the atmosphere in a significant way, both by restraining the expansion of the ejecta cloud and by influencing the thermal history of the ejecta. Compared with Venus, Titan's atmosphere will chill an impact melt somewhat quickly, so the long ejecta flows seen on Venus seem less likely, detailed modeling needs to be performed to determine the impact melt production. Crater topography on Titan may be highlighted by the influence of liquids forming crater lakes. Craters with central peaks will typically form ring-shaped lakes, although horseshoe-shaped takes may be common; domed craters with central pits may even form bullseye lakes with islands with central ponds. If liquids have covered a substantial part of Titan's surface for a substantial period, hydroblemes and tsunami deposits may be common.

Lorenz, R. D.↗