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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the relative importance of preheat from hohlraum x rays and a radiative shock on a low-density foam

Indirectly driven shock-tube experiments were performed on the Omega Laser Facility to evaluate the relative importance of hohlraum x ray and radiative shock preheat sources on a low-density foam. X rays emitted from the hohlraum and a subsequent shock wave are channeled into a low-density foam sample, which contains a plastic preheat-witness disk placed downstream of the foam. Simultaneous radiographic measurements of the shock speed in the foam and the expansion rate of the witness disk due to preheat allow for the observation of effects from the hohlraum's low-energy and high-energy x-ray spectrum. Here we showed, from simulations, that low-energy x rays from the hohlraum are preferentially absorbed near the ablator surface (where the hohlraum and the shock tube meet), while higher-energy x rays largely pass through the ablator and foam and are volumetrically absorbed by the witness disk. Reproducing the experimentally measured shock speed and expansion of the witness disk simultaneously, we extracted the temperature evolution of preheated foam from the simulation and evaluated the relative importance of preheat sources on a low-density foam from hohlraum x-ray radiation and radiative shock. We found that radiation from the shock front was more effective at preheating the low-density foam than the high-energy x rays from the hohlraum. This shock-tube preheat experiment is important for understanding the results of the MARBLE experiments at the National Ignition Facility because initial conditions of foam-filled MARBLE capsules are sensitive to preheat.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the importance of excited state species in low pressure capacitively coupled plasma argon discharges

In the past three decades, first principles-based fully kinetic particle-in-cell Monte Carlo collision (PIC/MCC) simulations have been proven to be an important tool for the understanding of the physics of low pressure capacitive discharges. However, there is a long-standing issue that the plasma density determined by PIC/MCC simulations shows quantitative deviations from experimental measurements, even in argon discharges, indicating that certain physics may be missing in previous modeling of the low pressure radio frequency (rf) driven capacitive discharges. In this work, we report that the energetic electron-induced secondary electron emission (SEE) and excited state atoms play an important role in low pressure rf capacitive argon plasma discharges. The ion-induced secondary electrons are accelerated by the high sheath field to strike the opposite electrode and produce a considerable number of secondary electrons that lead to additional ionizing impacts and further increase of the plasma density. Importantly, the presence of excited state species even further enhances the plasma density via excited state neutral and resonant state photon-induced SEE on the electrode surface. The PIC/MCC simulation results show good agreement with the recent experimental measurements in the low pressure range (1–10 Pa) that is commonly used for etching in the semiconductor industry. At the highest pressure (20 Pa) and driving voltage amplitudes 250 and 350 V explored here, the plasma densities from PIC/MCC simulations considering excited state neutrals and resonant photon-induced SEE are quantitatively higher than observed in the experiments, requiring further investigation on high pressure discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

From individual leaves to forest stands: importance of niche, distance decay, and stochasticity vary by ecosystem type and functional group for fungal community composition

Abstract Community assembly is influenced by environmental niche processes as well as stochastic processes that can be spatially dependent (e.g. dispersal limitation) or independent (e.g. priority effects). Here, we sampled senesced tree leaves as unit habitats to investigate fungal community assembly at two spatial scales: (i) small neighborhoods of overlapping leaves from differing tree species and (ii) forest stands of differing ecosystem types. Among forest stands, ecosystem type explained the most variation in community composition. Among adjacent leaves within stands, variability in fungal composition was surprisingly high. Leaf type was more important in stands with high soil fertility and dominated by differing tree mycorrhizal types (sugar maple vs. basswood or red oak), whereas distance decay was more important in oak-dominated forest stands with low soil fertility. Abundance of functional groups was explained by environmental factors, but predictors of taxonomic composition within differing functional groups were highly variable. These results suggest that fungal community assembly processes are clearest for functional group abundances and large spatial scales. Understanding fungal community assembly at smaller spatial scales will benefit from further study focusing on differences in drivers for different ecosystems and functional groups, as well as the importance of spatially independent factors such as priority effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

nautilus : boosting Bayesian importance nested sampling with deep learning

ABSTRACT We introduce a novel approach to boost the efficiency of the importance nested sampling (INS) technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation using deep learning. Unlike rejection-based sampling methods such as vanilla nested sampling (NS) or Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, importance sampling techniques can use all likelihood evaluations for posterior and evidence estimation. However, for efficient importance sampling, one needs proposal distributions that closely mimic the posterior distributions. We show how to combine INS with deep learning via neural network regression to accomplish this task. We also introduce nautilus, a reference open-source python implementation of this technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation. We compare nautilus against popular NS and MCMC packages, including emcee, dynesty, ultranest, and pocomc, on a variety of challenging synthetic problems and real-world applications in exoplanet detection, galaxy SED fitting and cosmology. In all applications, the sampling efficiency of nautilus is substantially higher than that of all other samplers, often by more than an order of magnitude. Simultaneously, nautilus delivers highly accurate results and needs fewer likelihood evaluations than all other samplers tested. We also show that nautilus has good scaling with the dimensionality of the likelihood and is easily parallelizable to many CPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Making Corgis Important for Honeycomb Classification: Adversarial Attacks on Concept-based Explainability Tools

Methods for model explainability have become increasingly critical for testing the fairness and soundness of deep learning. Concept-based interpretability techniques, which use a small set of human-interpretable concept exemplars in order to measure the influence of a concept on a model's internal representation of input, are an important thread in this line of research. In this work we show that these explainability methods can suffer the same vulnerability to adversarial attacks as the models they are meant to analyze. We demonstrate this phenomenon on two well-known concept-based interpretability methods: TCAV and faceted feature visualization. We show that by leveraging the geometry of the problem and carefully perturbing the examples of the concept that is being investigated, we can radically change the output of the interpretability method. The attacks that we propose can either induce positive interpretations (polka dots are an important concept for a model when classifying zebras) or negative interpretations (stripes are not an important factor in identifying images of a zebra). Our work highlights the fact that in safety-critical applications, there is need for security around not only the machine learning pipeline but also the model interpretation process.

Brown, Davis R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Importance Sampling

Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating renewable generation is a significant challenge for power grid operating and planning. Grid reliability, i.e., an ability to meet operational constraints under power fluctuations, is probably the most important of them. In this letter, we propose computationally efficient and accurate methods to estimate the probability of line overflow, i.e., reliability constraints violation, under a known distribution of renewable energy generation. To this end, we investigate an importance sampling approach, a flexible extension of Monte-Carlo methods, which adaptively changes the sampling distribution to generate more samples near the reliability boundary. The approach allows to estimate overload probability in real-time based only on a few dozens of random samples, compared to thousands required by the plain Monte-Carlo. Our study focuses on high voltage direct current power transmission grids with linear reliability constraints on power injections and line currents. Herein, we propose a novel theoretically justified physics-informed adaptive importance sampling algorithm and compare its performance to state-of-the-art methods on multiple IEEE power grid test cases.

power system faults↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial Replication Is Important for Developing Landscape Genetic Inferences for a Wetland Salamander

Habitat fragmentation is a pressing threat to wildlife populations, and maintenance of gene flow between populations is an essential goal of conservation. Resistance surfaces have emerged as an important tool for modelling connectivity and developing management strategies to mitigate effects of habitat fragmentation. However, recent studies have noted inconsistencies in the factors most strongly associated with connectivity across different landscapes. Thus, replication of genetic-based resistance surface optimisation across landscapes may be necessary for making robust conclusions about the influence of environmental variables. Accordingly, replication represents a substantive challenge and opportunity in the field of landscape genetics. In this study, we conducted replicated landscape genetic analyses across five landscapes in Tennessee and Kentucky for a threatened wetland amphibian, the four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum). We tested multiple hypotheses of how different landscape features that could directly affect small, desiccation-intolerant amphibians (e.g., canopy cover) influenced gene flow and assessed the appropriate scale at which to model different features. We found some concordance in the landscape features that influenced gene flow (e.g., a common importance of forest cover and topography), but also some differences—potentially owing to the difference in variability of predictors across landscapes. We also found discordance in the scale of effect of different features across landscapes. In conclusion, our work emphasises that flat areas of moist forest not bisected by roads may be important for H. scutatum conservation, and our replicated design allows us to identify relationships that would have been missed if only using one study site.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of machine learning errors on human decision-making: manipulations of model accuracy, error types, and error importance

Abstract This study addressed the cognitive impacts of providing correct and incorrect machine learning (ML) outputs in support of an object detection task. The study consisted of five experiments that manipulated the accuracy and importance of mock ML outputs. In each of the experiments, participants were given the T and L task with T-shaped targets and L-shaped distractors. They were tasked with categorizing each image as target present or target absent. In Experiment 1, they performed this task without the aid of ML outputs. In Experiments 2–5, they were shown images with bounding boxes, representing the output of an ML model. The outputs could be correct (hits and correct rejections), or they could be erroneous (false alarms and misses). Experiment 2 manipulated the overall accuracy of these mock ML outputs. Experiment 3 manipulated the proportion of different types of errors. Experiments 4 and 5 manipulated the importance of specific types of stimuli or model errors, as well as the framing of the task in terms of human or model performance. These experiments showed that model misses were consistently harder for participants to detect than model false alarms. In general, as the model’s performance increased, human performance increased as well, but in many cases the participants were more likely to overlook model errors when the model had high accuracy overall. Warning participants to be on the lookout for specific types of model errors had very little impact on their performance. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering human cognition when determining what level of model performance and types of model errors are acceptable for a given task.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nomenclatural issues concerning cultured yeasts and other fungi: why it is important to avoid unneeded name changes

The unambiguous application of fungal names is important to communicate scientific findings. Names are critical for (clinical) diagnostics, legal compliance, and regulatory controls, such as biosafety, food security, quarantine regulations, and industrial applications. Consequently, the stability of the taxonomic system and the traceability of nomenclatural changes is crucial for a broad range of users and taxonomists. The unambiguous application of names is assured by the preservation of nomenclatural history and the physical organisms representing a name. Fungi are extremely diverse in terms of ecology, lifestyle, and methods of study. Predominantly unicellular fungi known as yeasts are usually investigated as living cultures. Methods to characterize yeasts include physiological (growth) tests and experiments to induce a sexual morph; both methods require viable cultures. Thus, the preservation and availability of viable reference cultures are important, and cultures representing reference material are cited in species descriptions. Historical surveys revealed drawbacks and inconsistencies between past practices and modern requirements as stated in the International Code of Nomenclature for Algae, Fungi, and Plants (ICNafp). Improper typification of yeasts is a common problem, resulting in a large number invalid yeast species names. With this opinion letter, we address the problem that culturable microorganisms, notably some fungi and algae, require specific provisions under the ICNafp. We use yeasts as a prominent example of fungi known from cultures. But viable type material is important not only for yeasts, but also for other cultivable Fungi that are characterized by particular morphological structures (a specific type of spores), growth properties, and secondary metabolites. We summarize potential proposals which, in our opinion, will improve the stability of fungal names, in particular by protecting those names for which the reference material can be traced back to the original isolate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Primary and secondary ice production: interactions and their relative importance

A discrepancy of up to 5 orders of magnitude between ice crystal and ice nucleating particle (INP) number concentrations was found in the measurements, indicating the potentially important role of secondary ice production (SIP) in the clouds. However, the interactions between primary and SIP processes and their relative importance remain unexplored. In this study, we implemented five different ice nucleation schemes as well as physical representations of SIP processes (i.e., droplet shattering during rain freezing, ice-ice collisional break-up, and rime splintering) in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We ran CESM2 in the single column mode for model comparisons with the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) observations. We found that the model experiments with aerosol-aware ice nucleation schemes and SIP processes yield the best simulation results for the M-PACE single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We further investigated the relative importance of ice nucleation and SIP to ice number and cloud phase as well as interactions between ice nucleation and SIP in the M-PACE single-layer mixed-phase clouds. Our results show that SIP contributes 80 % to the total ice formation and transforms ~30 % of pure liquid-phase clouds simulated in the model experiments without considering SIP into mixed-phase clouds. The SIP is not only a result of ice crystals produced from ice nucleation, but also competes with the ice nucleation by reducing the number concentrations of cloud droplets and cloud-borne dust INPs. Conversely, strong ice nucleation also suppresses SIP by glaciating mixed-phase clouds and thereby reducing the amount of precipitation particles (rain and graupel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

How do perceptions of safety and car ownership importance affect autonomous vehicle adoption?

In this study, we explicitly modeled how individuals' perceptions of automated vehicle (AV) safety and the importance they place on car ownership affect mode choices involving conventional and automated vehicles in the context of privately owned cars and ridehailing services. We adopted psychometric questions to capture these two latent variables and designed a stated preference survey based on the participants' actual travel patterns. Then, we quantified the impact of these latent variables on mode choices using an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model. We found that both latent variables have a statistically significant effect on mode choices. The results show that car ownership importance has the most potent effect on privately owned cars (conventional car and self-driving car), followed by driverless ridehailing and conventional ridehailing. We also found that changes in safety perception are equivalent to sizable changes in price. In addition, we further investigated the impact of improvements in safety perception through four scenarios. The scenario testing results show that as the distribution of perceived safety is compressed toward positive safety perception, the market share of AVs spikes and dominates regular cars. Our results demonstrate that based on our respondents' current understanding of AVs, even if AV prices were comparable to regular cars, we cannot expect widespread use of AVs. However, improvements in AVs' safety and, consequently, consumer safety perception can considerably expand AVs' market share, and may offset the high cost of using the technology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Data-Driven Sampling via Multi-Criteria Importance Analysis

Although supercomputers are becoming increasingly powerful, their components have thus far not scaled proportionately. Compute power is growing enormously and is enabling finely resolved simulations that produce never-before-seen features. However, I/O capabilities lag by orders of magnitude, which means only a fraction of the simulation data can be stored for post hoc analysis. Prespecified plans for saving features and quantities of interest do not work for features that have not been seen before. Data-driven intelligent sampling schemes are needed to detect and save important parts of the simulation while it is running. Here, we propose a novel sampling scheme that reduces the size of the data by orders-of-magnitude while still preserving important regions. The approach we develop selects points with unusual data values and high gradients. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional sampling schemes on a number of tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Importance Sampling for Bayesian Model Calibration with Spatio-Temporal Data

This paper addresses two challenges in Bayesian calibration: 1) computational speed of existing sampling algorithms, and 2) calibration with spatio-temporal responses. The commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches require many sequential model evaluations making the computational expense prohibitive. This paper proposes an efficient sampling algorithm: iterative importance sampling with genetic algorithm (IISGA). While iterative importance sampling enables computational efficiency, the genetic algorithm enables robustness by preventing sample degeneration and avoids getting stuck in multimodal search spaces. An inflated likelihood further enables robustness in high-dimensional parameter spaces by enlarging the target distribution. Spatio-temporal data complicate both surrogate modeling, which is necessary for expensive computational models, and the likelihood estimation. In this work, singular value decomposition is investigated for reducing the high-dimensional field data to a lower-dimensional space prior to Bayesian calibration. Then the likelihood is formulated and Bayesian inference is performed in the lower-dimension, latent space. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate IISGA relative to existing sampling methods, and then IISGA is employed to calibrate a thermal battery model with 26 uncertain calibration parameters and spatio-temporal response data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wind Turbine Rotor Design Optimization Using Importance Sampling: Preprint

Probabilistic methods are commonly adopted to estimate both ultimate and fatigue loads in wind turbines, and multiple papers have presented a variety of approaches. In contrast, system-level, integrated design optimization methods for wind turbines have so far relied on deterministic methods to estimate loads and deflections. This work aims at addressing this gap by adopting importance sampling to estimate ultimate blade deflection for use within a rotor design optimization. A comparison between the results of this approach against traditional approaches using deterministic load evaluations show that the probabilistic approach is more conservative and that the solutions found with deterministic approaches violate the probabilistic constraint on tip deflection between 13% and 17%. This highlights the importance of accurate load and deflection estimates and demonstrates that probabilistic approaches can be successfully integrated within a wind turbine design process despite the higher computational costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

GANISP: A GAN-Assisted Importance Splitting Probability Estimator

Designing manufacturing processes with high yield and strong reliability relies on effective methods for rare event estimation. Genealogical importance splitting reduces the variance of rare event probability estimators by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is difficult when applied to deterministic systems where the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be modified. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring to differentiate their trajectory from the parent realization. However, this random perturbation strategy may be effective for some systems while failing for others, preventing variance reduction in the probability estimate. This work seeks to address this limitation using a generative model such as a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to generate perturbations that are consistent with the attractor of the dynamical system. The proposed GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting method (GANISP) improves the variance reduction for the system targeted. An implementation of the method is available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/GANISP).

generative adversarial network↗
DOE OSTI2022

GANISP: A GAN-Assisted Importance Splitting Probability Estimator: Preprint

To reduce the variance of rare event probability estimator, genealogical importance splitting marches towards a rare event by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is made difficult when applied to deterministic systems as the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be modified. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring to differentiate their trajectory from the parent realization. It is shown that a random perturbation strategy may be effective for some systems but may also fail for others, thereby preventing variance reduction in the probability estimate. To address this limitation, it is proposed to use a generative model such as a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to generate perturbations that are consistent with the attractor of the dynamical system. The GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting method (GANISP) improves the variance reduction for the system targeted. An implementation of the method is available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/GANISP).

generative adversarial network↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity and Importance Measure Analyses for Various Design Architectures for High Safety-Significant Safety-Related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants

A transition from analog instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies to digital I&C technologies is taking place for license renewals of existing nuclear power plants and for operating licenses of new advanced reactors. This transition necessitates research on risk and economic assessments of digital I&C technologies to ensure the long-term safety and reliability of vital systems, reduce uncertainty in licensing costs in addition to timeline, support integration of digital I&C systems in the plant, and find the most efficient technology upgrades. Adding redundancy within systems or components is a common means of improving design safety; however, it can also make designs more prone to common-cause failures (CCFs). Introducing diversity into redundant systems or components is a way to mitigate and possibly eliminate CCFs, but it also increases plant complexity and may be costly. The balance between redundancy and diversity remains a challenge for digital I&C systems. This study performs sensitivity and importance analyses for four design architectures of two digital I&C systems—the reactor-trip system and the engineered safety features actuation system. For each system, two architectures are examined, including a redundant, non-diverse configuration and a redundant, diverse configuration. The sensitivity analysis will provide insights on the impact of introducing diversity to system reliability. The importance results will help identify risk-significant and risk-sensitive components and failure modes, which may be good candidates for future design improvement.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗