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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing Multilayer Ceramic Capacitor Lifetime With Bipolar Voltage Cycling

Enhancing the lifetime of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) is critical in many aerospace, naval, or electrical grid applications, where device failure could lead to catastrophic consequences. The migration of oxygen vacancies from the ceramic to the electrode interface under constant bias is known to reduce the lifetime of oxide-based MLCCs. Bias cycling presents an opportunity to enhance MLCC lifetime by reducing oxygen vacancy migration. The ideal frequency range is expected to lie between frequencies low enough to avoid self-heating but high enough to avoid interfacial defect formation. However, the impact of low-frequency bipolar voltage cycling (BVC) on MLCC degradation mechanisms has not been well studied. This work investigates the impact of periodic BVC on the degradation of MLCCs through highly accelerated lifetime testing (HALT) on X7R capacitors. HALT tests were conducted at 255 °C and 60 V using different switching frequencies: 0 (dc), 0.1, 2.5, and 10 Hz. BVC was found to improve the lifetime of MLCCs compared to dc test conditions. MLCCs tested at 10-Hz BVC showed a 311% increase in average time to failure compared to the dc case. Impedance spectroscopy shows that BVC decreases the rate of resistance degradation within MLCCs, indicating that oxygen vacancy migration to the electrodes is mitigated. The impedance spectra taken on BVC samples highlight how grain boundaries play a vital role in trapping oxygen vacancies. Periodic cycling causes oxygen vacancies to become trapped at grain boundaries, resulting in oxygen vacancies taking longer to reach the electrode interface and thus increasing MLCC lifetime. This work highlights not only how BVC can be used to increase MLCC lifetime but also how periodically cycling MLCCs could increase lifetime in extreme environments, such as at elevated temperatures and electric fields.

Chuong, Kayla Y.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing thermostability of the key photorespiratory enzyme glycerate 3‐kinase by structure‐based recombination

As global temperatures rise, improving crop yields will require enhancing the thermotolerance of crops. One approach for improving thermotolerance is using bioengineering to increase the thermostability of enzymes catalysing essential biological processes. Photorespiration is an essential recycling process in plants that is integral to photosynthesis and crop growth. The enzymes of photorespiration are targets for enhancing plant thermotolerance as this pathway limits carbon fixation at elevated temperatures. We explored the effects of temperature on the activity of the photorespiratory enzyme glycerate kinase (GLYK) from various organisms and the homologue from the thermophilic alga Cyanidioschyzon merolae was more thermotolerant than those from mesophilic plants, including Arabidopsis thaliana. To understand enzyme features underlying the thermotolerance of C. merolae GLYK (CmGLYK), we performed molecular dynamics simulations using AlphaFold-predicted structures, which revealed greater movement of loop regions of mesophilic plant GLYKs at higher temperatures compared to CmGLYK. Based on these simulations, hybrid proteins were produced and analysed. These hybrid enzymes contained loop regions from CmGLYK replacing the most mobile corresponding loops of AtGLYK. Two of these hybrid enzymes had enhanced thermostability, with melting temperatures increased by 6 °C. One hybrid with three grafted loops maintained higher activity at elevated temperatures. Whilst this hybrid enzyme exhibited enhanced thermostability and a similar Km for ATP compared to AtGLYK, its Km for glycerate increased threefold. This study demonstrates that molecular dynamics simulation-guided structure-based recombination offers a promising strategy for enhancing the thermostability of other plant enzymes with possible application to increasing the thermotolerance of plants under warming climates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Odor exposure during imprinting periods increases odorant-specific sensitivity and receptor gene expression in coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch )

ABSTRACT Pacific salmon are well known for their homing migrations; juvenile salmon learn odors associated with their natal streams prior to seaward migration, and then use these retained odor memories to guide them back from oceanic feeding grounds to their river of origin to spawn several years later. This memory formation, termed olfactory imprinting, involves (at least in part) sensitization of the peripheral olfactory epithelium to specific odorants. We hypothesized that this change in peripheral sensitivity is due to exposure-dependent increases in the expression of odorant receptor (OR) proteins that are activated by specific odorants experienced during imprinting. To test this hypothesis, we exposed juvenile coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch, to the basic amino acid odorant l-arginine during the parr–smolt transformation (PST), when imprinting occurs, and assessed sensitivity of the olfactory epithelium to this and other odorants. We then identified the coho salmon ortholog of a basic amino acid odorant receptor (BAAR) and determined the mRNA expression levels of this receptor and other transcripts representing different classes of OR families. Exposure to l-arginine during the PST resulted in increased sensitivity to that odorant and a specific increase in BAAR mRNA expression in the olfactory epithelium relative to other ORs. These results suggest that specific increases in ORs activated during imprinting may be an important component of home stream memory formation and this phenomenon may ultimately be useful as a marker of successful imprinting to assess management strategies and hatchery practices that may influence straying in salmon.

Dittman, Andrew H. (ORCID:000000016482359X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing the Stability of Deep Blue Phosphor‐Sensitized OLEDs Using the Polariton‐Enhanced Purcell Effect

Abstract The stability of efficient, deep blue organic light‐emitting diodes (OLEDs) remains a major challenge in the field of organic electronics. Poor device stability originates from the high probability for destructive non‐radiative triplet exciton annihilation events. Phosphor‐sensitized fluorescence (PSF) is proposed to achieve an efficient, deep blue color by energy transfer from phosphors to fluorophores. Recently, the polariton‐enhanced Purcell (PEP) effect is introduced to decrease the triplet radiative lifetime and density, resulting in an increase in blue phosphorescent OLED lifetime. Here, the PEP effect is introduced to enhance the stability of the PSF‐OLEDs. It is shown that the PEP effect increases all radiative decay rates of the phosphors and fluorophores, leading to a reduction in the triplet annihilation events. Using a Pt‐complex phosphor sensitizer and a so‐called multi‐resonance fluorescent emitter in a PEP cavity, a 3.1‐fold lifetime increase is observed at a current density ofJ= 10 mA cm −2 , reduced EQE roll‐off and deep blue color with Commission Internationale de l'Eclairage coordinates of (0.13, 0.09). The PEP effect maximally extends PSF‐OLED lifetimes in devices with the highest triplet‐to‐singlet energy transfer rates. Moreover, this work suggests that the benefits of PEPs apply to all triplet‐based OLEDs.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implications of increased spatial and trophic overlap between juvenile Pacific salmon and Sablefish in the northern California Current

Abstract Objective The study was designed to assess long-term variability in the distribution of juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria. The study also evaluated whether Sablefish and Pacific salmon shared food resources and looked to characterize Sablefish during an understudied period of their life cycle. Methods To meet the objectives, the study used data from 26 years of surface trawls conducted in Oregon and Washington coastal waters (1998–2023). Spatial–temporal models were used to measure changes in abundance and distribution of Pacific salmon and Sablefish along with covariates of ocean temperature. The study evaluated trophic characteristics of Pacific salmon and Sablefish from 2020 for differences. The temporal variation in size and diets of Sablefish were also analyzed, along with energy density of fish caught in 2020. Result The spatial–temporal model demonstrated that there has been a nearshore expansion of juvenile Sablefish over the past 26 years that was correlated with increased ocean temperature. The nearshore expansion of Sablefish resulted in increased spatial and trophic overlap with juvenile Pacific salmon. While feeding in nearshore waters, juvenile Sablefish demonstrated competitive feeding advantages over juvenile Pacific salmon during a critical phase of salmonid early marine life history. Juvenile Sablefish exhibited significant ontogenetic diet and energetic shifts, and even the smallest (68–80 mm fork length) were piscivorous. Conclusions If juvenile Sablefish numbers continue to increase relative to Pacific salmon, they could exert more competitive pressure, especially if food resources become limited. Pacific salmon may experience adverse effects from competition, regardless of whether or not juvenile Sablefish, which have recently expanded into nearshore waters, successfully recruit to the adult population.

Daly, Elizabeth A. (ORCID:0000000195334457)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agile Allocation in the Tundra: A Single Growing Season of Warming Increases Nutrient Availability While Decreasing Fine-Root Length

The majority of plant biomass is located belowground in Arctic ecosystems and plant roots are responsible for the uptake of the nutrients that constrain plant growth in these infertile ecosystems. Despite performing a crucial role connecting primary producers to the soil, roots are relatively understudied in the Arctic and their functional response to a rapidly warming and increasingly variable climate is unknown. Here, we assessed whether one growing season with elevated temperatures would have an impact on nutrient uptake and allocation by applying a warming technique that increased daily air temperatures by 3.2 °C. Destructive sampling was performed at the peak of the growing season to quantify biomass pools of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), root traits, and uptake of a 15 N tracer ( 15 NH 4 + ) for the dominant plant species, Arctagrostis latifolia. We found that soil nutrient availability increased with short-term warming, but A. latifolia NH 4 + uptake remained unchanged. Fine-root length density and root biomass within the soil profile, however, were both reduced by warming. N allocation patterns across plant tissues were also altered by warming. NH 4 + uptake was best fit with a logistic model that captured the spatial relationship between roots and soil (NH 4 + uptake expressed per length fine root and NH 4 + availability expressed per unit soil volume) rather than a traditional Michaelis–Menten model. Our results indicate that short-term experimental warming can shift plant–soil interactions, suggesting that the tundra’s belowground response to elevated temperatures may be more dynamic than previously recognized.

15N tracer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil fertility management for sustainable Miscanthus × giganteus production: Increased tiller weight from nitrogen management explains yield gains in aged miscanthus

Aging-related yield decline in Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) remains a major constraint to sustainable biomass production. This study evaluated how nitrogen (N) management and soil fertility influence yield-component traits and productivity in aging miscanthus. Trials were conducted at two sites established in 2008 at the University of Illinois Energy Farm, Urbana, IL. (i) The Sun Grant trial received 0, 60, and 120 kg N ha −1 annually until 2015. Starting 2021, half of each plot received 60 or 120 kg N ha −1 , resulting in six legacy-contemporary treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–120N, 60N–0N, 60N–60N, 120N–0N, 120N–120N. (ii) The Energy Farm trial remained unfertilized until 2014, when one half of each plot received 56 kg N ha −1 , forming two treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–56N. Sun Grant trial results showed N fertilization increased tiller density (tillers m −2 ) and tiller weight (g tiller −1 ) in juvenile to early-mature miscanthus (2011–2015). After N withdrawal, both traits declined (20 % and 40 %), though legacy effects persisted in tiller weight in the aging stands (2020–2023). Contemporary N had little effect on tiller density but increased tiller weight by 34 %–77 %, resulting in 23 %–106 % higher machine-harvested biomass yield in 0–120N, 60-60N, and 120-120N plots. At the Energy Farm trial, 0N–56N plots yielded 59 %–108 % more biomass than 0N–0N. Soil total N increased (Sun Grant: 47 % by 2020; Energy Farm: 58 % by 2023), while Mehlich-3 P (42 %–44 %) and K (21 %–46 %) declined. These findings identify tiller weight as a key determinant of biomass yield in aging miscanthus and highlight the need for P and K management for long-term productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

APOA2 increases cholesterol efflux capacity to plasma HDL by displacing the C-terminus of resident APOA1

The ability of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) to promote cellular cholesterol efflux is a more robust predictor of cardiovascular disease protection than HDL-cholesterol levels in plasma. Previously, we found that lipidated HDL containing both apolipoprotein A-I (APOA1) and A-II (APOA2) promotes cholesterol efflux via the ATP-binding cassette transporter (ABCA1). In the current study, we directly added purified, lipid-free APOA2 to human plasma and found a dose-dependent increase in whole plasma cholesterol efflux capacity. APOA2 likewise increased the cholesterol efflux capacity of isolated HDL with the maximum effect occurring when equal masses of APOA1 and APOA2 coexisted on the particles. Follow-up experiments with reconstituted HDL corroborated that the presence of both APOA1 and APOA2 were necessary for the increased efflux. Using limited proteolysis and chemical cross-linking mass spectrometry, we found that APOA2 induced a conformational change in the N- and C-terminal helices of APOA1. Using reconstituted HDL with APOA1 deletion mutants, we further showed that APOA2 lost its ability to stimulate ABCA1 efflux to HDL if the C-terminal domain of APOA1 was absent, but retained this ability when the N-terminal domain was absent. Based on these findings, we propose a model in which APOA2 displaces the C-terminal helix of APOA1 from the HDL surface which can then interact with ABCA1—much like it does in lipid-poor APOA1. These findings suggest APOA2 may be a novel therapeutic target given this ability to open a large, high-capacity pool of HDL particles to enhance ABCA1-mediated cholesterol efflux.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfires increasingly threaten oil and gas wells in the western United States with disproportionate impacts on marginalized populations

The western United States is home to most of the nation’s oil and gas production and, increasingly, wildfires. Here, we examined historical threats of wildfires for oil and gas wells, the extent to which wildfires are projected to threaten wells as climate change progresses, and exposure of human populations to these wells. From 1984 to 2019, we found that, cumulatively, 102,882 wells were located in wildfire burn areas, and 348,853 people were exposed (resided within ≤ 1 km). During this period, we observed a 5-fold increase in the number of wells in wildfire burn areas and a doubling of the population within 1 km of these wells. These trends are projected to increase by late century, likely threatening human health. Approximately 2.9 million people reside within 1 km of wells in areas with high wildfire risk, and Black, Hispanic, and Native American people have disproportionately high exposure to wildfire-threatened wells.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories based on three design factors - Decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer and double-layer concept

This study investigates the enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories (DGRs) based on three design factors: decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer, and double-layer concept using coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical simulations. Decay heat optimization is achieved by iteratively emplacing spent nuclear fuels having the maximum and minimum decay heat in a canister. Disposal areas can be reduced by 20 % to 40 % compared to the current reference disposal system in Korea (KRS+) in accordance with the combinations of the three design factors, alleviating challenges in site selection for the DGR. This study additionally identifies an optimal layer spacing of 500 m for the double-layer concept in the viewpoint of the buffer temperature, where thermal interaction between the upper and lower layers nearly disappears. However, determining the ultimate disposal and layer spacing requires engineering judgement, considering not only the thermal performance of the DGR but also various factors such as cost and difficulties of the construction and rock mass stability. DGRs designed with an increased thermal limit of the buffer poses a greater probability of rock mass failure around disposal tunnels and deposition holes due to elevated thermal stresses. Densely arranged heat sources for the DGRs with enhanced disposal efficiency lead to larger temperature increase even at the far-field scale, raising a possibility of thermally driven fracture shear activation with associated hydraulic, mechanical, and seismic changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reaction-Induced Fracturing of Porous Carbonate Rocks during Volume-Increasing Replacement by Witherite

Volume-increasing replacement reactions can lead either to fracturing of the parent phase or to the formation of cohesive layers that passivate further reaction, but the factors that drive one outcome or the other are not understood. In this experimental study, we investigated the volume-increasing replacement of carbonate rocks (consisting of CaCO 3 and CaMg(CO 3 ) 2 ) of different porosity by witherite (BaCO 3 ). Samples were characterized using scanning electron microscopy, Raman spectroscopy, small-angle neutron/X-ray scattering, X-ray tomography, and scanning transmission electron microscopy. We observed the formation of a witherite reaction layer and witherite formation within pores and along grain boundaries. Despite this being a volume-increasing replacement reaction, newly formed witherite was porous, potentially allowing further replacement. Filled fractures were observed in the low-porosity carbonates, whereas witherite formed within pores in high-porosity carbonates. We conclude that fracturing of the parent phase versus passivation is contingent on the initial microstructure of the parent with an optimal degree of porosity required for fracturing.

Calcite↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tethered balloon system and High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry Reveal Increased Organonitrates Aloft Compared to the Ground Level

Atmospheric particles play critical roles in climate. However, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding the vertically resolved organic molecular-level composition of atmospheric particles due to aloft sampling challenges. To address this, we use a tethered balloon system at the Southern Great Plains Observatory and high-resolution mass spectrometry to, respectively, collect and characterize organic molecular formulas (MF) in the ground level and aloft (up to 750 m) samples. We show that organic MF uniquely detected aloft were dominated by organonitrates (139 MF; 54% of all uniquely detected aloft MF). Organonitrates that were uniquely detected aloft featured elevated O/C ratios (0.73 ± 0.23) compared to aloft organonitrates that were commonly observed at the ground level (0.63 ± 0.22). Unique aloft organic molecular composition was positively associated with increased cloud coverage, increased aloft relative humidity (~40% increase compared to ground level), and decreased vertical wind variance. Furthermore, 29% of extremely low volatility organic compounds in the aloft sample were truly unique to the aloft sample compared to the ground level, emphasizing potential oligomer formation at higher altitudes. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering vertically resolved organic molecular composition (particularly for organonitrates) and hypothesizes that aqueous phase transformations and vertical wind variance may be key variables affecting the molecular composition of aloft organic aerosol.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cu Doping Increases Capacity Retention in LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC622) by Altering the Potential of the Ni-Based Redox Couple and Inhibiting Particle Pulverization

To discern the influence of Cu 2+ as a dopant on both the structural and electrochemical characteristics of LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC622), Cu 2+ (aq) was added to the coprecipitation synthesis from the constituent ions. At 5 mol % Cu 2+ , a single-phase Cu-NMC product results, evidenced by an increase in d-spacing along the [003] and [104] directions and a slight increase in the crystal volume of the R–3m hexagonal (rock-salt superstructure) lattice. XRD data and high-resolution TEM imaging support Cu 2+ doping primarily on the transition metal 3b Wyckoff sites. Here, galvanostatic cycling of Cu-NMC shows a reversible gravimetric capacity of 102 mAh/g compared to 136 mAh/g for undoped NMC. Despite the lower capacity, the discharge capacity retention of Cu-NMC is 89% after 100 cycles compared to only 70% for NMC. XPS analysis reveals that this lower capacity is due to an increase in the concentration of Ni 3+ ions at the surface, while XRD data collected at the top and bottom of charge show a smaller decrease in crystalline domain size for Cu-NMC (40.5% decrease) compared to NMC (74.7% decrease), translating to pulverization of the secondary particles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observed Increase in Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Sea Surface Cooling Near the U.S. Southeast Coast

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce substantial upper‐ocean mixing and upwelling, leading to sea surface cooling. In this study, we explore changes in TC‐induced cold wakes along the United States (U.S.) Southeast and Gulf Coasts during 1982–2020. Our study shows a significant increase in TC‐induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of about 0.20°C near the U.S. Southeast Coast over this period. However, for the U.S. Gulf Coast, trends in TC‐induced SST cooling are insignificant. Analysis of the large‐scale oceanic environments indicate that the increasing TC‐induced cold wakes near the Southeast coast have been predominantly caused by the cooling of subsurface waters in that region. This upper‐ocean change is attributed to the enhancement of surface pressure gradient across land‐sea boundary and the associated increase in alongshore winds over there. Further analysis with climate models reveals the important role of anthropogenic forcings in driving these changes in the atmospheric circulation response along the U.S. Southeast Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

October–November Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant impacts for both the Caribbean islands and Central America (e.g., Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020). October–November Caribbean TCs can also track northward and make continental United States landfall, resulting in substantial damage and fatalities (e.g., Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Delta and Zeta in 2020). We find significant increasing trends in October–November Caribbean hurricanes, rapidly intensifying hurricanes (winds increasing by ≥15 m s −1 within 24 hr), and landfalling hurricanes during the global satellite era (1979–present). Since 1979, we also observe significant warming trends in the western Atlantic Warm Pool and anomalous relative cooling in the eastern Pacific during October–November. These trends yield a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for Caribbean TCs, including reductions in Caribbean vertical wind shear, increases in Caribbean potential intensity, and a more TC-conducive African easterly jet.

Klotzbach, P. J. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Colli↗