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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Simulation Of Fluctuating Geomagnetic Index

Mathematical model produces synthetic geomagnetic-index (ap) data including short-term fluctuations like those of real ap data. Measures geomagnetic activity computed from measurements of fluctuations in geomagnetic field taken at 12 high-latitude stations every 3 hours. Used in studies of interactions between solar wind and Earth, especially in studies of effect of geomagnetic field upon heating of thermosphere by impacts of energetic charged solar-wind particles.

Vedder, John↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Variability of the TEC in the Equatorial Anomaly Region with a Focus over Africa Using Rz and F10.7 as Input Drivers

This paper mainly intends to address the assessment of altitudinal variability of the vertical total electron content (VTEC) extracted from the Global Positioning System (GPS), the new versions of the International Reference Ionosphere Extended to the Plasmasphere (IRI-Plas 2017), and a quick-run ionospheric electron density (NeQuick 2) model in the equatorial anomaly region with a focus over Africa. This is manipulated employing the daily sunspot number (Rz) and 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7) indices as the driver for the models during 2013–2016. The results show that the GPS-derived VTEC values are generally smaller than the modeled VTEC (IRI-Plas 2017 and NeQuick 2 VTEC) values, especially while utilizing the models with the Rz index. The modeled VTEC values are closer to the GPS VTEC values while using the models with the F10.7 index than Rz. The VTEC values obtained while using both models with the F10.7 index tend to increase while traversing from the high to the low solar activity years (especially in the March equinox and December solstice). The top-side ionospheric and plasmaspheric layers contribute the highest and lowest values to the total VTEC. Hence, the signal propagation through the ionosphere is largely affected when the signal crosses the top-side layer. Unlike other layers, due to the limited impact of the EUV on the ionization of neutral particles in the plasmasphere, the VTEC in the plasmaspheric layer (ECpl) shows smooth pattern with similar hourly values. Moreover, the IRI-Plas 2017 model does not effectively respond to the geomagnetic storm time variability of the VTEC with altitude.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Predictability of Daily Southeast U.S. Precipitation Using Explainable Machine Learning

Abstract We investigate the predictability of the sign of daily southeastern U.S. (SEUS) precipitation anomalies associated with simultaneous predictors of large-scale climate variability using machine learning models. Models using index-based climate predictors and gridded fields of large-scale circulation as predictors are utilized. Logistic regression (LR) and fully connected neural networks using indices of climate phenomena as predictors produce neither accurate nor reliable predictions, indicating that the indices themselves are not good predictors. Using gridded fields as predictors, an LR and convolutional neural network (CNN) are more accurate than the index-based models. However, only the CNN can produce reliable predictions that can be used to identify forecasts of opportunity. Using explainable machine learning we identify which variables and grid points of the input fields are most relevant for confident and correct predictions in the CNN. Our results show that the local circulation is most important as represented by maximum relevance of 850-hPa geopotential heights and zonal winds to making skillful, high-probability predictions. Corresponding composite anomalies identify connections with El Niño–Southern Oscillation during winter and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and North Atlantic subtropical high during summer.

Pegion, Kathy↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessing the Transferability of Statistical Predictive Models for Leaf Area Index Between Two Airborne Discrete Return LiDAR Sensor Designs Within Multiple Intensely Managed Loblolly Pine Forest Locations in the South-Eastern USA

Leaf area is an important forest structural variable which serves as the primary means of mass and energy exchange within vegetated ecosystems. The objective of the current study was to determine if leaf area index (LAI) could be estimated accurately and consistently in five intensively managed pine plantation forests using two multiple-return airborne LiDAR datasets. Field measurements of LAI were made using the LiCOR LAI2000 and LAI2200 instruments within 116 plots were established of varying size and within a variety of stand conditions (i.e. stand age, nutrient regime and stem density) in North Carolina and Virginia in 2008 and 2013. A number of common LiDAR return height and intensity distribution metrics were calculated (e.g. average return height), in addition to ten indices, with two additional variants, utilized in the surrounding literature which have been used to estimate LAI and fractional cover, were calculated from return heights and intensity, for each plot extent. Each of the indices was assessed for correlation with each other, and was used as independent variables in linear regression analysis with field LAI as the dependent variable. All LiDAR derived metrics were also entered into a forward stepwise linear regression. The results from each of the indices varied from an R2 of 0.33 (S.E. 0.87) to 0.89 (S.E. 0.36). Those indices calculated using ratios of all returns produced the strongest correlations, such as the Above and Below Ratio Index (ABRI) and Laser Penetration Index 1 (LPI1). The regression model produced from a combination of three metrics did not improve correlations greatly (R2 0.90; S.E. 0.35). The results indicate that LAI can be predicted over a range of intensively managed pine plantation forest environments accurately when using different LiDAR sensor designs. Those indices which incorporated counts of specific return numbers (e.g. first returns) or return intensity correlated poorly with field measurements. There were disparities between the number of different types of returns and intensity values when comparing the results from two LiDAR sensors, indicating that predictive models developed using such metrics are not transferable between datasets with different acquisition parameters. Each of the indices were significantly correlated with one another, with one exception (LAI proxy), in particular those indices calculated from all returns, which indicates similarities in information content for those indices. It can then be argued that LiDAR indices have reached a similar stage in development to those calculated from optical-spectral sensors, but which offer a number of advantages, such as the reduction or removal of saturation issues in areas of high biomass.

Sumnall, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS1996

Nonlinear ARMA models for the D(st) index and their physical interpretation

Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.

Vassiliadis, D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A phenomenological wobbling model for isolated pulsars and the braking index

ABSTRACT An isolated pulsar is a rotating neutron star possessing a very high magnetic dipole moment, thus providing a powerful radiating mechanism. These stars loose rotational energy E through various processes, including a plasma wind originating from a highly magnetized magnetosphere and the emission of magnetic dipole radiation (MDR). Such phenomena produce a time decreasing angular velocity Ω(t) of the pulsar that is usually quantified in terms of its braking index. Although these mechanisms are widely acknowledged as the primary drivers of the spin evolution of isolated pulsars, it is plausible that other contributing factors influencing this effect have yet to be comprehensively investigated. Most of young isolated pulsars present a braking index different from that given by the MDR and plasma wind processes. Working in the weak field (Newtonian) limit, we take in this work a step forward in describing the evolution of such a system by allowing the star’s shape to wobble around an ellipsoidal configuration as a backreaction effect produced by its rotational deceleration. It is assumed that an internal damping of the oscillations occurs, thus introducing another form of energy loss in the system, and this phenomenon may be related to the deviation of the braking index from the models based on $\dot{E} \sim -\Omega ^4$ predictions. Numerical calculations suggest that the average braking index for typical isolated pulsars can be thus explained by a simple phenomenological model.

Araujo, E. C. A. (ORCID:0000000213520879)↗
NASA NTRS2011

2008 GEM Modeling Challenge: Metrics Study of the Dst Index in Physics-Based Magnetosphere and Ring Current Models and in Statistical and Analytic Specifications

In this paper the metrics-based results of the Dst part of the 2008-2009 GEM Metrics Challenge are reported. The Metrics Challenge asked modelers to submit results for 4 geomagnetic storm events and 5 different types of observations that can be modeled by statistical or climatological or physics-based (e.g. MHD) models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. We present the results of over 25 model settings that were run at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and at the institutions of various modelers for these events. To measure the performance of each of the models against the observations we use comparisons of one-hour averaged model data with the Dst index issued by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Japan, and direct comparison of one-minute model data with the one-minute Dst index calculated by the United States Geologic Survey (USGS).

Rastaetter, L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

UAS remote sensing (3DR SOLO platform): multispectral reflectance, canopy height model, normalized difference vegetation index, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021

Airborne remote sensing data collected using a Parrot Sequoia+ multispectral sensor installed on a 3DR SOLO unoccupied aerial system (UAS) - operated by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Technology group at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This package includes data from 10 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council Mile Marker (MM) 71, Kougarok MM64, and Teller MM27 sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, in August 2021. Derived image products include point cloud, ortho-mosaiced multispectral image, ortho-mosaiced RGB image, a digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, a canopy height model (CHM), and a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) map. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). Data and metadata are provided as text (*.txt, *.json, *hdr,), tabular (*.dat, *.csv), point cloud (*.laz), Cloud Optimized GeoTIFF (COG, *.tif), and image (*.jpg, *.tif, *png) formats. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

The added value of using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale data from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been questioned and researched. Although several studies have used different methods to identify (and in some cases quantify) the added value, there is still a need to find a general metric that quantifies the added value of any variable. This paper builds on past studies to propose a new metric of added value in the simulation of present-day climate which measures the difference in the probability density functions (PDFs) at each grid-cell between a model and an observation source, and then compares the results of the RCM and GCM in order to spatially compute the added value index. The same method is also adapted to quantify the climate change downscaling signal in a way that is consistent with the present-day metric. These new metrics are tested on the daily precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE projection ensembles and reveal an overall positive added value of RCMs, especially at the tail-end of the distribution. Higher added value is obtained in areas of complex topography and coast-lines, as well as in tropical regions. Areas with large added value in present-day climate are consistent with areas of significant climate change downscaling signal in the RCP 8.5 far future simulations, and when the analysis is repeated at a low-resolution. The use of different resolution observations shows that the added value tends to decrease when models are compared to low-resolution observation datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A comparison of computational models for predicting yield sooting index

Sooting propensity, a measurement of how much particulate matter is produced when a fuel is burned, is a property of significant interest among researchers who are striving to discover the next generation of cleaner, more efficient fuels and fuel additives. Many compounds are not viable as fuels and/or fuel additives, and as a result, designing cleaner-burning biofuels using only experimental techniques is inefficient. Predictive models have been instrumental in reducing this inherent difficulty, providing researchers with a tool to preemptively screen compounds before production and testing. The present work compares the accuracies and interpretabilities of existing models used to predict a particular measure of sooting propensity, Yield Sooting Index (YSI). These models include artificial neural networks, graph neural networks, and multivariate equations. A novel equation for predicting YSI based on atom path count and bond order is proposed, which can highlight key structural components that contribute to YSI. It was found that artificial neural networks slightly outperform graph neural networks and greatly outperform multivariate equations in blind (test set) prediction accuracy; however, graph neural networks and multivariate equations provide significantly more interpretability as to how compound structure relates to YSI. Predictions of YSI are compared to experimental measurements for previously un-tested compounds with cetane numbers comparable to diesel fuel (50-60) (butyl decanoate, ethyl decanoate, 1,4-bis(ethenoxymethyl)cyclohexane, and 5-heptyloxolan-2-one), and it was found that these compounds produce significantly less soot compared to diesel fuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Modeling and prediction of ionospheric scintillation

Scintillation modeling performed thus far is based on the theory of diffraction by a weakly modulating phase screen developed by Briggs and Parkin (1963). Shortcomings of the existing empirical model for the scintillation index are discussed together with questions of channel modeling, giving attention to the needs of the communication engineers. It is pointed out that much improved scintillation index models may be available in a matter of a year or so.

Fremouw, E. J.↗