Demand bidding vs. demand response for industrial electrical loads
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Tang, Xin (ORCID:0009000720910131)↗
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Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services
Wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting are used in research and industry to anticipate future power output at scales ranging from individual wind turbines to entire wind farms. Probabilistic day-ahead wind forecasting is useful for anticipating how a wind farm could potentially participate in the day-ahead market by providing upper and lower bounds for expected power generation, thus informing grid operators of its uncertainty. Understanding this uncertainty is part of a larger project focused on building a platform that combines efforts in weather forecasting, aerodynamic and economic modeling to create maximum value of a wind plant to better provide services to the grid. This effort is also known as the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid (A2E2G) project. One method for producing a probabilistic forecast is through the analog ensemble approach (Delle Monache et al., 2011). This method leverages historical forecasts and their corresponding observations as a training data set from which future forecasts can be made. For some future forecast, the most similar historical forecasts (analogs) are identified on a regular time basis such as once per a 3-hour window. The most similar analogs, based on a metric such as root mean square error (RMSE), are recorded and their corresponding verifying observations are used as an ensemble member for this future forecast. Prior work in this area demonstrates improvements over raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and shows skill similar to techniques such as logistic regression and machine learning (Delle Monache et al., 2013; Alessandrini et al., 2015). Here, we take the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) day-ahead forecast (0-36 hours) to create a probabilistic day-ahead forecast using an analog ensemble approach. The HRRR has an hourly temporal resolution, with a spatial resolution of 3 km. The 12 UTC HRRR model run is downloaded every day for one year from August 2019 - July 2020, with the first 11 months serving as a bank of analogs from which the forecasting algorithm can create a probabilistic forecast. Once downloaded, the original HRRR forecast is temporally interpolated to 5-minutes, aligning with both the temporal resolution of the observations as well as the timescale relevant for day-ahead power forecasts. The forecast is validated at the M2 tower at the Flatirons Campus of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at a typical wind turbine height of 80 m. Variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and turbulence intensity are incorporated into the probabilistic forecast model and weighted according to their relative importance to the forecast. Based on metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error, the analog ensemble forecast outperforms the raw HRRR forecast during the testing period of July 2020. Figure 1 illustrates an example day-ahead forecast compared against the verifying observations. The general variability and ramps are captured throughout the day, with potential to further improve the analog ensemble model through machine learning techniques.
numerical weather prediction↗
Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event
The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Igiugig Site Visit Report
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
In-situ Characterizations of Microstructural Degradation of Perovskite Solar Cells
Rapid progress has been achieved in perovskite solar cells (PSCs), and their efficiencies have improved from 3.8 % to 24.2 % in less than a decade. With low-cost processing, PSCs have shown exciting photovoltaic (PV) properties, such as effective optical absorption, a long carrier lifetime, and unique defect tolerance. While recent studies demonstrated improved stability up to 100 days, PSC technology is still challenged to meet the stringent industry requirements for commercialization. Despite considerable efforts, the underlying physical mechanisms for the inferior stability of PSCs are not well understood. One reason for this divergence is that many established measurement techniques (e.g., quantum efficiency, photoluminescence) probe the properties on length scales far greater than that of electronic and/or structural inhomogeneity (i.e., < 1 μm near grain boundaries) and therefore characterize convoluted and/or averaged properties. Ion/electron beam-based techniques have been extensively used to access the microstructures of PSCs, enabling atomic/nanoscale structural, chemical, optical, and electrical characterizations. For example, focused ion beam (FIB) milling produces an atomically smooth surface that minimizes the artifacts attributed to the surface roughness. FIB techniques can also create a well-defined cross-section of PSCs without mechanical damage in a physical cleaving sample preparation. While powerful, there are some concerns about possible beam damage of inorganic-organic perovskites via chemical-bond breakage and local heating. This project aims to comprehensively understand how the microstructural/interfacial properties of PSCs (e.g., Methylammonium Lead Iodide [MAPbI 3 ]) are modified under the irradiating ion beams. Specifically, we investigate the sub-surface properties of PSCs before and after Ar-ion beam injections. Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) measures the contact potential differences (CPDs). Photoluminescence (PL) microscopy in conjunction with Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) simulations infers the formation of a “dead layer” (< 15 nm) on the subsurface of MAPbI 3 during Ar+ milling processes while preserving the initial bulk properties. The x-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS) confirms this modified surface is a lead-rich and iodine-deficient surface. We initiate customizing in-situ measurement setup while measuring the local optical and electrical properties of PSC under thermal (cooling, heating) and light stressors. Our results provide in-depth knowledge of the ion-beam impact on metal-halide perovskites and how this modified sub-surface impacts their properties under accelerated stressors of light and heat. Intensive Monte Carlo simulations of an electron beam interacting with PSCs provide the beam energy distribution in PSCs, proposing possible measurement conditions of using e-beam with minimizing beam damage. Our in-situ measurement platform can accommodate the diverse architecture of PSC devices for studying deterioration mechanisms under mixed environmental stressors.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
UR 2 : Ultra-rapid reactivity test for real-time, low-cost quality control of calcined clays
To reduce cement's carbon footprint, there is growing interest in commercial adoption of sustainable SCMs such as calcined clays. However, the existing ASTM standard (R 3 test, C1897) to test the reactivity of such clays takes up to 7 days and cannot be used for real-time quality control in an industrial setting. We address this issue by introducing a 5-min Ultra-Rapid Reactivity (UR 2 ) test. By dissolving 47 clay specimens in 4 M NaOH solutions at 90°C, we report that a dissolution index of 1.54Al + Si correlates strongly to the 7-day R 3 heat (R 2 = 0.92, RMSE = 94.1 J/g). This dissolution index also correlates to the 28-day compressive strength for 14 clay mixtures (R 2 = 0.94, RMSE = 1.7 MPa). This UR 2 test relies on colorimetry and can be conducted via off-the-shelf, low-cost cameras. Overall, our new UR 2 test opens a pathway for real-time, low-cost quality control of calcined clays.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Brief Update on Advancements by Commercial Vendors/Options for Feeding and Pumping Biomass Slurries for Hydrothermal Liquefaction
In 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), working as a partner in the National Advanced Biofuels Consortium, issued a report assessing the viable industrial feed system and pump options for a 2000 dry metric tons per day production-scale hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) plant (Berglin et al. 2012). This report was issued as PNNL-21981, Review and Assessment of Commercial Vendors/Options for Feeding and Pumping Biomass Slurries for Hydrothermal Liquefaction, and will be referred to as “Pump Survey” for reference. It had the following scope: • Identify relevant applications and industries operating at comparable scales • Interact with commercial vendors and pursue integration between vendors • Take advantage of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technology • Supply and support vendor needs for biomass feedstock rheology characterization • Provide vendors with process requirements to support selection of conceptual design for feedstock handing and pump system • Obtain cost data to the extent possible from equipment vendors to support the technical economic analysis (TEA) • Identify issues associated scale-up. The current document represents an update to the prior report in order to: 1. Identify advancements in vendor-reported technologies 2. List reports of new experience or trials with biomass pumping applications 3. Determine if technology/application gaps identified in the prior report have been filled 4. Capture ideas on future research.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
2026 Annual Molten Salt Reactor Campaign Review
This report documents the 2026 Annual Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Campaign Review held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, from April 21–24, 2026. The review was organized by Dr. Patricia Paviet, National Technical Director of the Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) MSR program for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), and included participation from principal investigators, federal managers, developers, regulators, and members of the broader MSR community. The 2026 review expanded beyond the ART-MSR campaign to include related DOE-NE programs supporting molten salt reactor advancement, including the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program, Advanced Reactor Safeguards and Security (ARSS), Material Protection, Accounting and Control Technologies (MPACT), and relevant advanced fuels activities. Three days were dedicated to technical presentations and panel discussions covering thermal properties, off-gas management, modeling and simulation, safety and licensing, safeguards and security, materials and corrosion, and irradiation activities. A fourth day was dedicated to technical tours of Sandia National Laboratories and Kairos Power facilities. Attendance was strong and comparable to the prior annual review, with approximately 75 in-person participants per day, 75–80 virtual attendees per day, and approximately 30 participants in the tour day. The review fostered significant technical exchange across national laboratories, universities, industry, regulators, and international participants. This report summarizes the review structure, technical themes, participation, tours, feedback, and conclusions relevant to future planning for the MSR campaign.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Load Composition Analysis in Support of the NERC Load Modeling Task Force. 2019-2020 Field Test of the Composite Load Model
In 2015, NERC’s reliability standards were revised to require the use of dynamic load models in transmission planning studies. To comply with the standards, planners must use load models that explicitly represent the dynamic behavior of the different constituents of load at each load bus within their transmission planning models. The most important of these constituents are motor-driven and power electronics-based loads. Collectively, these representations are known as composite load models. In anticipation of the compliance date for the new standards, NERC’s Load Modeling Task Force (LMTF), in 2019, initiated a field test of composite load models involving the regional reliability planning entities. In support of the field test, DOE and BPA researchers developed region-specific composite load models that could be assigned to each non-industrial load bus in the planning models for each of the North American interconnections. Separate models were developed for each hour of a summer peak day, a winter peak day, and a spring light-load day. This report is the technical documentation for the load composition analysis that was conducted to develop these non-industrial composite load models.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels
States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Workshop on Improving Holdup Monitoring in the US
The characterization and quantification of nuclear deposits, or residual nuclear material retained in process equipment, generally referred to as holdup, continues to challenge nuclear processing facilities in DOE program areas such as nuclear criticality safety, material control and accountability, environmental management. The efficiency and effectiveness of nuclear operations in these facilities depends heavily on the results from nondestructive techniques designed to measure nuclear materials in situ. The traditional methods used to measure holdup were established more than 30 years ago and assume unrealistic conditions for most measurement cases. These blind, in situ measurements present unique challenges due to the following attributes: unique, non-ideal geometries; unknown deposit thicknesses; lack of representative calibration standards; large number of holdup deposit locations; and poor accessibility for many measurement locations. These difficulties and the poor assumptions made to handle them have resulted in measurement uncertainties that are often too large for many programs to effectively utilize. In an effort to address and identify solutions to the current holdup challenges facing the US nuclear industry, Oak Ridge National Laboratory hosted the Technical Workshop on Improving Holdup Monitoring in the US. The two-day workshop held August 21–22, 2019, was attended by 35 holdup measurement practitioners, program managers, stakeholders from US Department of Energy sites, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and representatives from commercial industry. The primary objectives were to identify critical elements of a successful and defensible holdup measurement program; identify technical challenges, needs, and potential improvements associated with measurement of holdup; and share best practices and lessons learned from recent accumulation events. Fourteen presentations were delivered on holdup topics including necessary elements for effective program management, measurement needs, emerging technologies and other measurement solutions, and lessons learned from recent events. These presentations highlighted best practices related to accumulation monitoring, considerations and proactive steps to facilitate holdup in new facility designs, imaging solutions to improve holdup assumptions, and new software developed in support of holdup measurements. Breakout sessions were also employed to determine additional needs and identify potential solutions to common holdup challenges. The primary discussions focused on causes and prevention of material accumulations, needs for uranium and plutonium measurements, and reduction of measurement uncertainty, all of which were explicitly identified as critical needs during the 2018 Workshop on Technical and Programmatic Needs for a Sustainable NDA Program for the US DOE.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
2024 Stor4Build Annual Meeting: Exploring Challenges and Opportunities in Thermal Energy Storage for Buildings
In late August 2024, Stor4Build brought nearly 80 stakeholders from the thermal energy storage industry to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), including researchers, startups, electric utilities, nonprofits, implementers, state energy efficiency offices, and original equipment manufacturers. During the two-day Stor4Build Annual Meeting, participants engaged in vital discussions about the current challenges and opportunities for scaling thermal energy storage solutions in buildings. The event featured panel discussions led by leading technology experts and industry practitioners, as well as updates on Stor4Build–funded projects from national laboratories, highlighting advancements in the thermal energy storage field crucial to achieving the consortium’s mission.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
3D printing of ceramics: Advantages, challenges, applications, and perspectives
Abstract 3D printing (3DP) technologies have transformed the processing of advanced ceramics for small‐scale and custom designs during the past three decades. Simple and complex parts are designed and manufactured using 3DP technologies for structural, piezoelectric, and biomedical applications. Manufacturing simple or complex geometries or one‐of‐a‐kind components without part‐specific tooling saves significant time and creates new applications for advanced ceramic materials. Although development and innovations in 3DP of ceramics are far behind compared with metals or polymers, with the availability of different commercial machines in recent years for 3DP of ceramics, exponential growth is expected in this field in the coming decade. This article details various 3DP technologies for advanced ceramic materials, their advantages and challenges for manufacturing parts for various applications, and perspectives on future directions. We envision this work will be helpful to advanced ceramic researchers in industry and academia who are using different 3DP processes in the coming days.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Computational Algorithms for Unit Commitment with AC Power Flows (Final Report)
Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is a key component in power system operations. When AC power flow constraints are considered in the SCUC model (AC-SCUC), the problem becomes extremely difficult due to its discrete and non-convex nature, as described in “Grid Optimization Competition Challenge 3 Problem Formulation (GOCC)”. There are four main challenges: (i) Discrete decisions regarding unit online/offline status and start-up/shut-down procedures for every single unit. The number of discrete decision variables increases considerably when a system integrates multiple generators; (ii) Configuration-based combined-cycle formulations, and multi-commodity models that include ramping products, spin/non-spin products, and regulation up/down products. The combined-cycle units introduce additional discrete decision variables and auxiliary service products further complicate the model by connecting multi-commodity products’ continuous and discrete variables; (iii) SCUC models with AC power flow constraints are far more complex due to massive bilinear terms in the large-scale nonlinear power balance equations. The nonlinear power balance equations are further complicated by the discrete step control variables of shunts; (iv) N − 1 contingency analysis. The size of the model increases linearly with the number of contingencies considered, greatly increasing the size of the optimization model. Accordingly, there is an emergent need to develop a robust algorithm capable of deriving a high-quality solution in a short time and passing through contingency tests simultaneously. In this project, we explore innovative techniques to address this challenging problem by integrating advanced polyhedral theory, approximation methods, relaxation strategies, decomposition techniques, and parallel computing. Each technique approaches the problem from a different perspective, leveraging its specific strengths to tackle distinct challenges. Each individual method has demonstrated its effectiveness in the PI’s previous research. Their integration is expected to significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the proposed complex problem. Successful completion of this project has the potential to transform the industry by enhancing optimization solvers capable of handling large-scale day-ahead energy market clearing models within strict time constraints, while incorporating AC power flow constraints. This advancement will lead to reduced overall generation costs and, consequently, increased social welfare.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Success Path Method: Conformance with Safety Management Systems
All industrial facilities deal with safety hazards such as equipment failures, chemical and toxic releases, and fires and explosions just to name a few. A disciplined framework for managing the integrity of operating systems and processes that handle hazardous substances by applying good design principles, engineering, and operating practices is called process safety. The goal of such framewoks is to prevent the release of energy or material that could cause harm to people or damage to equipment and/or environment. Process safety covers all aspects of facility operation also including design, maintenance, and human and organizational factors that could possibly have effect on process safety. As it will be seen from the discussion below, process safety is just one of the pieces of the much bigger matter, a safety culture. Many industries have long recognized the importance of safety culture in their day-to-day operation. Although the definition of safety culture can slightly differ from organization to organization, in general, a safety culture is how things are done to demonstrate a commitment to safety by everyone involved. An organization acquires safety culture over time as the product of individual and group values, actions, and behaviors toward overall safety. It is important to note that safety culture should not be viewed as some static state that an organization wants to reach. It is more like a constantly evolving level of “how things are done when nobody is watching.” Safety culture is an inherent characteristic of an organization, it is always present, but the level can range on a continuum from undesirable to desirable or more commonly used, from negative to positive. An example for an undesirable, negative safety culture would be a company in which accidents resulting in harm (physical and/or emotional) of its employees, equipment or surrounding environment and community occur frequently. At the other end of the spectrum would be a company in which such accidents are rare or do not occur at all (desired or positive safety culture). Every company/industry exists somewhere within this spectrum.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Low-Cost Sulfur Thermal Storage for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications
Industrial process heat (IPH) is one of the largest energy demands in U.S., representing about 10% of all domestic energy consumption. Fuel costs to generate this industrial process heat are generally a top three cost for industry, a major component in American manufacturing competitiveness. Roughly 60% of US IPH demand (about 6,500 TBtu annually) falls in the medium-temperature range of 100–250 °C. While concentrated solar thermal (CST) technologies can provide a cost-effective source of heat in this temperature range, solar intermittency limits their adoption in industries that operate 24/7. Element 16 Technologies, Inc. developed a low-cost sulfur thermal energy storage (TES) technology to bridge this gap by capturing excess solar heat during the day and dispatching it reliably during non-solar hours. The core innovation is the use of sulfur, an abundant, industrial waste byproduct that costs ten times less than molten salt used in commercial TES systems. The overall goal of the project was to advance the design and development of molten sulfur TES to a manufacturing-relevant prototype stage for solar industrial process heat applications, while establishing and validating a realistic pathway to commercial success. Key tasks included corrosion and mechanical durability testing to identify cost-effective materials, design investigations using physics-based simulation tools, techno-economic evaluations of system lifetime costs, and pilot-scale testing for performance verification. Corrosion testing of steel alloys under cyclic molten sulfur conditions showed that austenitic stainless steels in the 300 series performed particularly well, with no structural degradation of welds or joints. Thermal cyclic testing of pilot sulfur TES units up to 1.5 MWh quantified charge/discharge rates, heat losses, round-trip efficiency and validated the system's capability to operate effectively under intermittent charging conditions. A techno-economic model, informed by sulfur TES performance model validated using pilot test data, showed that hybrid solar+sulfur TES+NG boiler systems are economically competitive with incumbent natural gas boilers for multiple locations in the southwest US. In summary, this project established molten sulfur TES as a technically viable pathway to improve economic competitiveness of American manufacturing by lowering the cost of solar industrial process heat.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗