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It is shown that under very general conditions, any inhomogeneous cosmological model with a positive cosmological constant that can be described in a synchronous reference system will tend asymptotically in time towards the de Sitter solution. This renders the problem of initial conditions less severe.
In order to check for spurious chaos and obtain superior solutions for decaying Navier-Stokes flows, an investigation is conducted of the effect of spatial resolution on numerical results. The fourth-order finite difference method results obtained with grids of 32-cubed and 64-cubed points, and those of a pseudospectral method for 128-cubed points, indicate that the sensitivity of initially neighboring solutions to small changes in initial conditions increases with improving spatial resolution.
Microgravity experiments aimed at quantifying effects of gentler via controlled sinusoidal forcing transmitted on the interface between two miscible liquids have shown the evolution of a quasi -stationary four-mode wave structure oriented vertically. The sensitivity of the wave structure to phase angle variation is investigated computationally. We show that a slight variation of the phase angle is sufficient to cause a bifurcation to a two-mode structure. The dependence of phase angle on wave structure is attributed to sensitivity on initial conditions due to the strong nonlinearity of the coupled field equations for the parametric space of interest.
Catastrophic fragmentation of the ring moons of Uranus and Neptune occurs in approximately 10 exp 8 years. The fate of the debris following a fragmenting impact is central to understanding the evolution of these satellites and the hypothesized origin of rings from their debris. In this paper the possible effects of the velocity distribution of fragments following a catastrophic fragmentation on satellite diminution via a collisional cascade is examined. Fragment velocities are critical in the evolution of the collisional cascade because of the possibility of reaccretion following disruption. The fragment velocity distribution is used to calculate the initial phase space distribution of the new ring particles. This provides a physically realistic initial condition for simulations of the collisional evolution of planetary rings.
The reattachment of a fully turbulent, two-dimentional shear layer downstream of a backward-facing step has been studied experimentally. The work examines the effect of variations in inlet conditions on the process of reattachment. A series of experiments was conducted in a low-speed wind tunnel using specialized instrumentation suited to the highly turbulent reversing flow near reattachment. Accurate characterization of the time-mean features of the reattaching flows was possible. Assuming linear scaling normalized on distance from reattachment, distributions of normalized pressure coefficient and forward flow fraction, and time-averaged skin friction coefficient appear universal for two-dimensional reattachment, independent of initial conditions and step height, for given duct geometry (area ratio) and for high step-height Reyolds numbers with thin separating boundary layers. The results suggest universal flow structure in the reattachment zone.
Structure measurements were completed within the dilute portion of axisymmetric nonevaporating sprays. Measurements included: mean velocities, velocity fluctuations, and Reynolds stress of the gas phase; and mean velocities, fluctuating velocities, mass flux, and diameter distributions of the drop phase. The measurements were used to evaluate three typical methods of analyzing sprays: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) analysis, where slip between the phases is neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) analysis, where slip is considered but effects of drop interactions with turbulence are ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) analysis, where effects of both slip and turbulence are considered using random-walk computations for drop motion. Measurements of initial conditions of both phases near the injector, mean gas-phase properties, and liquid flux distributions are described herein. Best agreement between predictions and measurements was obtained with the SSF model, which provided a reasonable representation of turbulent dispersion of drops. A companion paper presents additional measurements of drop continuous phase properties.
A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.
The initial boundary-layer state can significantly affect the radiated noise from an axisymmetric jet. Jets with initially laminar boundary layers are found to emit more noise. Thus, 'cleaner' far-field noise characteristics are achieved in tripped jets. Data suggest that the additional noise in the initially laminar case partly originates from the first stage of pairing of the coherent shear-layer vortices.
The role of soil moisture in NWP has gained more attention in recent years, as studies have demonstrated impacts of land surface states on ambient weather from diurnal to seasonal scales. However, soil moisture initialization approaches in coupled models remain quite diverse in terms of their complexity and observational roots, while assessment using bulk forecast statistics can be simplistic and misleading. In this study, a suite of soil moisture initialization approaches is used to generate short-term coupled forecasts over the U.S. Southern Great Plains using NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) and NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling systems. This includes a wide range of currently used initialization approaches, including soil moisture derived from ‘off-the-shelf’ products such as atmospheric models and land data assimilation systems, high-resolution land surface model spinups, and satellite-based soil moisture products from SMAP. Results indicate that the spread across initialization approaches can be quite large in terms of soil moisture conditions and spatial resolution, and that SMAP performs well in terms of heterogeneity and temporal dynamics when compared against high resolution land surface model and in-situ soil moisture estimates. Case studies are analyzed using the local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) framework that relies on integrated assessment of soil moisture, surface flux, boundary layer, and ambient weather, with results highlighting the critical role of inherent model background biases. In addition, simultaneous assessment of land vs. atmospheric initial conditions in an integrated, process-level fashion can help address the question of whether improvements in traditional NWP verification statistics are achieved for the right reasons.
This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.
For many important classes of Mod-Sim problems, even quantum computing will not enable accurate predictions/computation vis-à-vis the real world due to boundary/initial condition shortfalls in terms of both range of parameters and requisite amplitudes/coverage. The Mod-Sim community needs to consider going forward the knowability of initial and boundary conditions.
Direct numerical simulations have been used to examine the effect of the initial disturbance field on the development of three-dimensionality and the transition to turbulence in the incompressible plane wake. The simulations were performed using a new numerical method for solving the time-dependent, three-dimensional, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in flows with one infinite and two periodic directions. The method uses standard Fast Fourier Transforms and is applicable to cases where the vorticity field is compact in the infinite direction. Initial disturbances fields examined were combinations of two-dimensional waves and symmetric pairs of 60 deg oblique waves at the fundamental, subharmonic, and sub-subharmonic wavelengths. The results of these simulations indicate that the presence of 60 deg disturbances at the subharmonic streamwise wavelength results in the development of strong coherent three-dimensional structures. The resulting strong three-dimensional rate-of-strain triggers the growth of intense fine scale motions. Wakes initiated with 60 deg disturbances at the fundamental streamwise wavelength develop weak coherent streamwise structures, and do not develop significant fine scale motions, even at high Reynolds numbers. The wakes which develop strong three-dimensional structures exhibit growth rates on par with experimentally observed turbulent plane wakes. Wakes which develop only weak three-dimensional structures exhibit significantly lower late time growth rates. Preliminary studies of wakes initiated with an oblique fundamental and a two-dimensional subharmonic, which develop asymmetric coherent oblique structures at the subharmonic wavelength, indicate that significant fine scale motions only develop if the resulting oblique structures are above an angle of approximately 45 deg.
Voluntary active head rotations produced vestibulo-ocular reflex eye movements (VOR) with the subject viewing a fixation target. When this target jumped, the size of the refixation saccades were a function of the ongoing initial velocity of the eye. Saccades made against the VOR were larger in magnitude. Simulation of a reciprocally innervated model eye movement provided results comparable to the experimental data. Most of the experimental effect appeared to be due to linear summation for saccades of 5 and 10 degree magnitude. For small saccades of 2.5 degrees, peripheral nonlinear interaction of state variables in the neuromuscular plant also played a role as proven by comparable behavior in the simulated model with known controller signals.
The time averaged and unsteady density fields close to the nozzle exit (0.1 less than or = x/D less than or = 2, x: downstream distance, D: jet diameter) of unheated free jets at Mach numbers of 0.95, 1.4, and 1.8 were measured using a molecular Rayleigh scattering based technique. The initial thickness of shear layer and its linear growth rate were determined from time-averaged density survey and a modeling process, which utilized the Crocco-Busemann equation to relate density profiles to velocity profiles. The model also corrected for the smearing effect caused by a relatively long probe length in the measured density data. The calculated shear layer thickness was further verified from a limited hot-wire measurement. Density fluctuations spectra, measured using a two-Photomultiplier-tube technique, were used to determine evolution of turbulent fluctuations in various Strouhal frequency bands. For this purpose spectra were obtained from a large number of points inside the flow; and at every axial station spectral data from all radial positions were integrated. The radially-integrated fluctuation data show an exponential growth with downstream distance and an eventual saturation in all Strouhal frequency bands. The initial level of density fluctuations was calculated by extrapolation to nozzle exit.
A study has been conducted to determine the cause of a major synoptic difference in the 72 h GLAS model forecasts from 0000 GMT 19 February 1976 that resulted from the inclusion of satellite data. The prognostic differences that resulted in diverging cyclone paths between the forecast that included satellite temperature soundings (SAT) and the forecast that excluded satellite sounding data (NOSAT) have been traced to initial state differences in the upper level wind and temperature patterns. These modifications enhanced the variation of thermal vorticity and thermal advection across the cyclone center and in the SAT case, gave a greater initial rate of movement of the upper-level vorticity maximum associated with the surface cyclone.
Statistical formulation of estimation and combined identification and control problems of nonlinear dynamical systems
Mean orbital elements for Vinti spheroidal theory of drag-free satellite motion applied to ballistic trajectories
Mean orbital element determination using Vintis spheroidal theory of drag-free satellite motion applied to ballistic trajectories