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A Preliminary Analysis of Dose Rates Associated with ITER CVCS Equipment/Area Location

A preliminary analysis of the ITER Chemical and Volume Control System (CVCS) Area was performed to assess dose rates outside the walls and ceiling of the facility after 1.5 years of operation at shutdown, 2 days, and 10 days after shutdown. For this purpose a simplified Monte Carlo computer model was developed using the MCNP (MCNP5 Ver. 1.51) code. Two components are included: the smaller filter tank and the larger ion exchanger. These pieces of equipment are associated with the Integrated Blanket ELM Divertor Primary Heat Transfer System, which will have the largest dose rates associated with activated corrosion products during operation in comparison with other systems. The ion exchanger contained two source regions, a 1.2-m-thick resin bed above a 0.55 m-thick skirt, and a 0.8-m-thick water region. The filter constituted an additional source. Thus the model consisted of three sources (filter, resin, water), homogeneously distributed within the appropriate source regions. However, much of the results (that address individual isotopes) are presented with the two sources in the ion exchanger combined. In these cases the sources are referred to as the 'ion exchanger source' and the 'filter source.' Dimensions for the facility and components, as well as source isotopes and strengths, and material densities, were supplied by US ITER. Because of its simplification, the model does not contain pipes. Consequently, radiation streaming through pipe penetrations, radiation emanating from the pipes, and shielding from the pipes were not considered in this analysis. Dose rates on the outside of two walls and the ceiling were calculated. The two walls are labeled as the 'long' wall (aligned with the X-axis) and the 'short' wall (aligned with the Y-axis). These walls and ceiling were nominally set to 30-cm-thick concrete. In the original analysis, standard concrete (2.3 g/cc density) was used. In addition to the shielding walls/ceiling, a floor and an additional wall opposite the long wall were added for photon scattering contributions. These were both 10-cm-thick, standard concrete structures. Other components (tanks, pipes, etc.), that were not included in the model, would potentially add additional scattering and shielding. Possibly these additional effects will be addressed in a later, more detailed analysis. The room was 29.6 m in length (X-axis), but was limited to 15 m in the model. The inside width (Y axis) and height (Z axis) were 4 m and 3.4 m, respectively. The origin for the model was located inside the room at the corner opposite the long wall and adjacent to the short wall at the floor level. The room was filled with air at standard temperature and pressure. The stainless steel (SS304) wall thicknesses for the ion exchanger and filter were 2.2 cm and 0.8 cm, respectively. The axial center of the filter was located 140 cm from the short wall and 100 cm from the long wall (outer surface). The axial center of the ion exchanger was located 440 cm from the short wall and 250 cm from the long wall (inner surface). The resin was assumed to be a homogeneous mixture of equal atom density fractions of hydrogen and carbon* at a specified density of 1.136 g/cc. The filter material was assumed to be homogeneous carbon at a specified density of 1.8 g/cc. If the filter media were stainless steel and the accumulated activity were the same, the dose rate outside the filter would be lower, provided the density of the stainless steel sintered filter material is significantly higher than 1.8g/cc. The densities of the water and air were assumed to be 1.0 g/cc and 1.096E-3 g/cc, respectively. The model included 10 small volumes placed outside the model adjacent to the wall at locations where the dose rates were expected to be highest and which showed to a degree the fall-off of the dose rate with distance along a particular wall or ceiling. These 'tally cells' are shown in Fig. 2 and are described in Table 1. Each cell had dimensions of 50 cm x 50 cm x 1 cm and was oriented so that the 1-cm-thick dimension was perpendicular to the wall against which the cell was located. Also, smaller tally volumes were placed at 5 cm (updated model), 30 cm, 50 cm, and 100 cm from each source, both radially from the outside of each component at the height of each source mid-plane, and vertically, along the axial centerline, above the ion-exchanger and below the filter. (For the ion exchanger, the vertical distance was limited to 75 cm because of interference from the ceiling.) These tally regions can be seen in Fig. 3. Each cell had dimensions of 5 cm x 5 cm x 1 cm, oriented so that the 1-cm-thick dimension was perpendicular to the X, Y or Z axis.

08 HYDROGEN↗

In Silico Analysis of Transcription Factor Repertoires and Prediction of Stress-Responsive Transcription Factors from Six Major Gramineae Plants

The interactions between transcription factors (TFs) and cis-regulatory DNA sequences control gene expression, constituting the essential functional linkages of gene regulatory networks. The aim of this study is to identify and integrate all putative TFs from six grass species: Brachypodium distachyon, maize, rice, sorghum, barley, and wheat with significant information into an integrative database (GramineaeTFDB) for comparative genomics and functional genomics. For each TF, sequence features, promoter regions, domain alignments, GO assignment, FL-cDNA information, if available, and cross-references to various public databases and genetic resources are provided. Additionally, GramineaeTFDB possesses a tool which aids the users to search for putative cis-elements located in the promoter regions of TFs and predict the functions of the TFs using cis-element-based functional prediction approach. We also supplied hyperlinks to expression profiles of those TF genes of maize, rice, and barley, for which data are available. Furthermore, information about the availability of FOX and Ds mutant lines for rice and maize TFs, respectively, are also accessible through hyperlinks. Our study provides an important user-friendly public resource for functional analyses and comparative genomics of grass TFs, and understanding of the architecture of transcriptional regulatory networks and evolution of the TFs in agriculturally important cereal crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions

Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving luminescence response in ZnGeN 2 /GaN superlattices: defect reduction through composition control

Abstract Color-mixed (cm) light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are theoretically the most efficient white light emitters, projected to improve white light luminous efficacy by 34% compared to incumbent phosphor converted LEDs. Since white light technology is pervasive and essential, small improvements in LED technology can result in energy savings. However, cm-LEDs are not yet realized due to poor efficacy in green and amber emitting materials, a spectral region colloquially referred to as the Green Gap. ZnGeN 2 is nearly isostructural and closely lattice-matched to GaN and can be heteroepitaxially integrated with existing GaN devices; ZnGeN 2 /GaN hybrid structures are theorized to emit green (~530 nn) light with a spontaneous emission rate 4.6–4.9 times higher than traditional InGaN LEDs when incorporated into III-N LED structures. In this report we demonstrate the molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) growth of GaN and ZnGeN 2 superlattices, an important step towards realizing multiple quantum well structures required for efficient LEDs. Elemental analysis, including atom probe tomography, shows that Ga and Ge are observed in both ZnGeN 2 and GaN layers, degrading the structural uniformity. The lack of elemental abruptness also leads to increased defect luminescence and reabsorption of band edge luminescence. The source of unintentional Ga distributed throughout the ZnGeN 2 layers was identified as excess flux escaping from around the closed MBE shutter. The source of unintentional Ge, which tended to incorporate as a single delta-doped layer in GaN, was identified as Ge riding along the cyclical metal-rich Ga adlayer used for high quality GaN, incorporating during subsequent nitrogen-rich growth step. Modifying the growth strategy results in improved structural quality, elemental abruptness, and luminescence response. This realization of structurally and elementally abrupt interfaces demonstrates the potential of heteroepitaxially integrated binary and ternary nitrides for energy-relevant devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Mechanical Design Studies of the MQXF Long Model Quadrupole for the HiLumi LHC

The Large Hadron Collider Luminosity upgrade (HiLumi) program requires new low-β triplet quadrupole magnets, called MQXF, in the Interaction Region (IR) to increase the LHC peak and integrated luminosity. The MQXF magnets, designed and fabricated in collaboration between CERN and the U.S. LARP, will all have the same cross section. The MQXF long model, referred as MQXFA, is a quadrupole using the Nb3Sn superconducting technology with 150 mm aperture and a 4.2 m magnetic length and is the first long prototype of the final MQXF design. The MQXFA magnet is based on the previous LARP HQ and MQXFS designs. In this paper we present the baseline design of the MQXFA structure with detailed 3D numerical analysis. A detailed tolerance analysis of the baseline case has been performed by using a 3D finite element model, which allows fast computation of structures modelled with actual tolerances. Tolerance sensitivity of each component is discussed to verify the actual tolerances to be achieved by vendors. In conclusion, tolerance stack-up analysis is presented in the end of this paper.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Fossil fleet transition with fuel changes and large scale variable renewable integration

Variability in demand as seen by grid-connected dispatchable generators can increase due to factors such as greater production from variable generation assets (for example, wind and solar), increased reliance on demand response or customer-driven automation, and aggregation of loads. This variability results a need for these generators to operate in a range of different modes, collectively referred to as “flexible operations.” This study is designed to inform power companies, researchers, and policymakers of the scope and trends in increasing levels of flexible operations as well as reliability challenges and impacts for dispatchable assets. Background Because there is rarely a direct monetization of the value of operational flexibility, the decision to provide such flexibility is typically dependent on unit- and region-specific decisions made by asset owners. It is very likely that much greater and more widespread flexible operations capabilities will be needed due to increased variability in demand seen by grid-connected generators, uncertainty regarding investment in new units to provide adequate operational flexibility, and the retirement of older, uncontrolled sub-critical pulverized coal units. Objective To enhance understanding of the technical challenges and operational impacts associated with dispatchable assets needed to increase operational flexibility and support variable demand. Approach The study approach consists of three elements: a literature review of relevant prior studies, analysis of detailed scenarios for evolution of the future fleet over the next 35 years, and engineering assessment of the degree and scope of technical challenges associated with transformation to the future fleet. The study approach integrated two key elements rarely brought together in a single analysis—1) long-term capacity planning, which enables modeling of unit retirements and new asset investments, and 2) unit commitment analysis, which permits examination of hourly unit dispatch while considering operational limitations relevant to flexible operations capabilities.

James, Revis↗

Search for a heavy neutral particle decaying into an electron and a muon using 1 fb − 1 of ATLAS data

CERN-LHC. A search for high mass neutral particles that decay directly into oppositely charged electron-muon pairs produced in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. The analysis uses a data sample of total integrated luminosity of 1.07 fb-1 and the results are found to be consistent with the Standard Model expectations. The high di-lepton mass region is used to set upper limits on the production of two possible new physics processes: tau sneutrinos in an R-parity violating SUSY model and Zprime like vector bosons in a lepton flavour violating model. In the tables the errors on the data points are purely statistical and can therefore be derived from the total number of events observed in each bin. The auxillary plots refered to in several of the tables are available on the ATLAS web site: atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/SUSY-2011-11/.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

MFANS 2024 - Formally Proving Characteristics of Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are engineered systems that rely on the smooth integration of computational algorithms and physical elements. This integration presents new challenges for verifying that systems will behave as expected. The goal of this presentation is to present current challenges and potential solutions for the formal verification of cyber-physical systems. For cyber systems, formal methods refer to systematically rigorous mathematical techniques employed in the specification, development, analysis, and verification of both software and hardware systems. Recent advancements in computer science have yielded sophisticated tools specifically designed to address challenges associated with formal methods in complex systems. These tools leverage various foundational concepts such as logic, formal languages, program semantics, type systems, type theory, and automata theory. A notable achievement in the application of formal methods is the seL4 microkernel, claimed to be the first general-purpose operating-system kernel to be verified. Its proof implies the absence of bugs and guarantees that the kernel meets specifications. For physical systems, dynamic and control theory has a history of using rigorous analytic techniques to prove functional correctness. Lyapunov, optimal, classical, modern, and robust control theories all provide rigorous mathematical methods both to analyze system performance and to design controller that can be guaranteed to meet certain objectives. Recent computational techniques like level set theory and reachability analysis provide assertions that a system's state will avoid unsafe regions. Even though success has been independently achieved for cyber systems and physical systems, the integration of such systems creates new challenges. In particular, there is an obvious discrepancy between finite-state machines and infinite-state systems, resulting in different approaches for modeling and analyzing these system. While it is possible to simulate hybrid systems, this provides only a demonstration of a performance and not proof. For hybrid systems, current formal methods and system analysis approaches typically require a workarounds to work on hybrid systems like CPS. This paper will outline the state of the art and limits of current practice for formally verifying CPS and will identify possible research directions that require attention.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

COSMIC OPTICAL BACKGROUND: THE VIEW FROM PIONEER 10/11

We present the new constraints on the cosmic optical background (COB) obtained from an analysis of the Pioneer 10/11 Imaging Photopolarimeter (IPP) data. After careful examination of data quality, the usable measurements free from the zodiacal light are integrated into sky maps at the blue ({approx}0.44 {mu}m) and red ({approx}0.64 {mu}m) band. Accurate starlight subtraction is achieved by referring to all-sky star catalogs and a Galactic stellar population synthesis model down to 32.0 mag. We find that the residual light is separated into two components: one component shows a clear correlation with thermal 100 {mu}m brightness, while another betrays a constant level in the lowest 100 {mu}m brightness region. The presence of the second component is significant after all the uncertainties and possible residual light in the Galaxy are taken into account, and thus it most likely has the extragalactic origin (i.e., the COB). The derived COB brightness is (1.8 {+-} 0.9) x 10{sup -9} and (1.2 {+-} 0.9) x 10{sup -9} erg s{sup -1} cm{sup -2} sr{sup -1} A{sup -1} at the blue and red bands, respectively, or 7.9 {+-} 4.0 and 7.7 {+-} 5.8 nW m{sup -2} sr{sup -1}. From comparison with the integrated brightness of galaxies, we conclude that bulk of the COB is comprised of normal galaxies which have already been resolved in the current deepest observations. There seems to be little room for contributions of other populations including 'first stars' at these wavelengths. On the other hand, the first component of the IPP residual light represents the diffuse Galactic light (DGL)-scattered starlight by the interstellar dust. We derive mean DGL-to-100 {mu}m brightness ratios of 2.1 x 10{sup -3} and 4.6 x 10{sup -3} at the two bands, which are roughly consistent with the previous observations toward the denser dust regions. Extended red emission in the diffuse interstellar medium is also confirmed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations

The 2016 SECURE Water Act report’s natural water availability benchmark, combined with the 2010 level of water demand from an integrated assessment model, is used as input to drive a large-scale water management model. The regulated flow at hydropower plants and thermoelectric plants in the Western U.S. electricity grid (WECC) is translated into potential hydropower generation and generation capacity constraints. The impact on reliability (unserved energy, reserve margin) and cost (production cost, carbon emissions) of water constraints on 2010-level WECC power system operations is assessed using an electricity production cost model (PCM). Use of the PCM reveals the changes in generation dispatch that reflect the inter-regional interdependencies in water-constrained generation and the ability to use other generation resources to meet all electricity loads in the WECC. August grid operational benchmarks show a range of sensitivity in production cost (-8 to +11%) and carbon emissions (-7 to 11%). The reference reserve margin threshold of 15% above peak load is maintained in the scenarios analyzed, but in 5 out of 55 years unserved energy is observed when normal operations are maintained. There is 1 chance in 10 that a year will demonstrate unserved energy in August, which defines the system’s historical performance threshold to support impact, vulnerability, and adaptation analysis. For seasonal and longer term planning, i.e., multi-year drought, we demonstrate how the Water Scarcity Grid Impact Factor and climate oscillations (ENSO, PDO) can be used to plan for joint water-electricity management to maintain grid reliability.

adaptation↗

Intertwined impacts of water, energy development, and carbon emissions in China

China is rapidly expanding its alternative and non-conventional energy production capabilities. Although renewable electricity remains the focus, considerable investment has supported construction of coal liquefaction and coal gasification facilities in the desert steppes of north-central China, new coal mines in arid Inner Mongolia, and tight oil and gas extraction in the Ordos to supplement limited domestic supplies of oil and gas. At the same time, China is also facing severe drought and water scarcity in these same regions and in response has expanded various water supply technologies such as desalination and wastewater treatment. Recent government goals and measures for reducing energy and water consumption and increasing efficiency introduced in national policies, however, are poorly or not coordinated, resulting in contradictory objectives for which physical interlinkages are not well understood. This research intends to provide insights for future energy-water nexus management decisions in China, through systematic, comprehensive modeling of the water-energy nexus in China based on comprehensive, bottom-up technology characterizations. Existing studies fail to adequately characterize the details on specific technologies, nor do they comprehensively cover all energy sectors, including energy conversion for non-energy products. We developed integrated assessment (IA) capabilities to allow stakeholders to observe the tradeoffs between various technology options and policy decisions and to test hypotheses/premises in a scenario-driven environment. The results of our analysis underscore the growing interconnection between water and energy in China, the mixed trade-offs from developing low-carbon technologies such as renewable energy and inland nuclear, and the importance of water-energy nexus issues at the regional and local scales. This study lays the groundwork for an integrated resource policy planning process in China and provides an assessment methodology and research directions for future studies of the water-energy nexus. To conclude, this study contributes to the water-energy nexus literature by providing systematic data and policy implications for China, where data are typically less accessible, as well as providing references for other regions in the world that are facing similar water and energy use and planning challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind and Solar Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience

Wind-solar-storage hybrid power plants represent a significant and growing share of new proposed projects in the United States (U.S.). Their uptake is supported by increasing renewable energy market share, technical abilities for dispatch and control, and decreasing wind, solar, and battery storage costs. Simultaneously, generation and storage resources are increasingly used in distributed power systems. While concerns around the reliability of the aging, transforming U.S. electric grid are growing, diversifying energy resources through hybridization or spatial distribution provides an opportunity to enhance power system resilience compared to single-source generation. Understanding where to build hybrids for resilience value, rather than bulk power supply, has not been fully explored in previous studies. Therefore, in this study, we complete a national complementarity analysis to identify areas in the U.S. that are particularly suited for wind-solar hybrid power plant development. We show the importance of seasonal and diurnal patterns in assessing complementarity, and identify that regions in the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast are particularly suited for hybrid power plants. We demonstrate the resilience value of hybridization for a reference system based near Memphis, Tennessee, and show optimal sizing of wind, solar, and storage assets given 1.0 and 0.9 critical load factors. Results indicate that pairing wind and solar assets better meet constant load demand and reduce storage requirements compared to solar alone. These results enable future work integrating complementarity metrics in resilience frameworks and indicate a need for more finer resolution of local resource, demand, and hazard data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Central and Eastern North America Ground-Motion Characterization (NGA-East)

This document is the final project report of the Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA) project (NGA-East). The NGA-East objective was to develop a new ground-motion characterization (GMC) model for the CENA region. The GMC model consists of a set of new ground-motion models (GMMs) for median and standard deviation of ground motions and their associated weights to be used with logic-trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). NGA-East is a large multidisciplinary project coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), at the University of California. The project has two components: (1) a set of scientific research tasks, and (2) a model-building component following the framework of the “Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3” (Budnitz et al. 1997; NRC 2012). Component (2) is built on the scientific results of component (1) of the NGA-East project. This report documents the tasks under component (2) of the project. Under component (1) of NGA-East, several scientific issues were addressed, including: (a) development of a new database of ground motion data recorded in CENA; (b) development of a regionalized ground-motion map for CENA, (c) definition of the reference site condition; (d) simulations of ground motions based on different methodologies; and (e) development of numerous GMMs for CENA. The scientific tasks of NGA-East were all documented as a series of PEER reports. The scope of component (2) of NGA-East was to develop the complete GMC. This component was designed as a SSHAC Level 3 study with the goal of capturing the ground motions’ center, body, and range of the technically defensible interpretations in light of the available data and models. The SSHAC process involves four key tasks: evaluation, integration, formal review by the Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP), and documentation (this report). Key tasks documented in this report include review and evaluation of the empirical groundmotion database, the regionalization of ground motions, and screening sets of candidate GMMs. These are followed by the development of new median and standard deviation GMMs, the development of new analyses tools for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in ground motions, and the documentation of implementation guidelines of the complete GMC for PSHA computations. Appendices include further documentation of the relevant SSHAC process and additional supporting technical documentation of numerous sensitivity analyses results. The PEER reports documenting component (1) of NGA-East are also considered “attachments” to the current report and are all available online on the PEER website (https://peer.berkeley.edu/). The final NGA-East GMC model includes a set of 17 GMMs defined for 24 ground-motion intensity measures, applicable to CENA in the moment magnitude range of 4.0 to 8.2 and covering distances up to 1500 km. Standard deviation models are also provided for site-specific analysis (single-station standard deviation) and for general PSHA applications (ergodic standard deviation). Adjustment factors are provided for consideration of source-depth effects and hanging-wall effects, as well as for hazard computations at sites in the Gulf Coast region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of IMERG Satellite Precipitation Over the Land-Coast-Ocean Continuum – Part Ii: Quantification

To understand and manage water systems under a changing climate and meet an increasing demand for water, a quantitative understanding of precipitation is most important in coastal regions. The capabilities of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) V06B product for precipitation quantification are examined over three coastal regions of the United States: the West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the East Coast, all of which are characterized by different topographies and precipitation climatologies. A novel uncertainty analysis of IMERG is proposed that considers environmental and physical parameters such as elevation and distance to the coastline. The IMERG performance is traced back to its components, i.e., passive microwave (PMW), infrared (IR), and morphing-based estimates. The analysis is performed using high-resolution, high-quality Ground Validation Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (GV-MRMS) rainfall estimates as ground reference at the native resolution of IMERG of 30 min and 0.1°. IMERG Final (IM-F) quantification performance heavily depends on the respective contribution of PMW, IR, and morph components. IM-F and its components overestimate the contribution of light rainfall (<1 mm h−1) and underestimate the contribution of high rainfall rates (>10 mm h−1) to the total rainfall volume. Strong regional dependencies are highlighted, especially over the West Coast, where the proximity of complex terrain to the coastline challenges precipitation estimates. Other major drivers are the distance from the coastline, elevation, and precipitation types, especially over the land and coast surface types, that highlight the impact of precipitation regimes.

Atmosphere↗

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Power Solitons in Inverter-based Electric Energy Systems: Observation, Analysis and Implications

The discovery of an unfamiliar class of nonlinear energy waves in electric energy systems with dominating coupled inverter-based energy resources has been reported in a recent research project. Whenever there are slight but persistent differences among the reference signals used by inverters in pulse-width modulation, i.e., a weak group modulation instability condition, the unfamiliar energy waves appear, which contain not only the familiar frequency components present in electric power systems but also self-organized components in the ultra-high frequency region of the energy spectrum. These components are found to be exploding solitary waves with concentrated energy masses, hence we call them power solitons. This paper explains the work of the discovery reported, and the implications of the presence of power solitons for grid integration of inverter-based resources and power system protection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Lunar Science Investigations and Exploration in Celestial Mapping System

Introduction: As NASA expands the mission portfolio on the lunar surface, there is a need for applications with a broad range of analytical and functional capabilities that can be simultaneously deployed onto multiple mobile and desktop platforms to perform in-situ operations and hence enabling extensive Lunar exploration. Celestial Mapping System (CMS) [1,2] is developed to address the need for tools for science investigations, mission planning, operations and support for planetary sciences. Built on top of NASA WorldWind libraries, CMS can be simultaneously deployed onto multiple platforms, has the flexibility to update to the latest imagery and terrain datasets as they are being acquired (in real time) before and/or during the exploration mission and has the potential to enable traverse path planning suited for rovers, EVA and surface mobility units. It can provide critical functionalities such as equipment planning and optimized placement on Lunar surface, line of sight analysis to inform the coverage area for various equipment, powerful measurement tools based on 3D terrain, 3D COLLADA models to represent rovers, humans and equipment, visualization of derived mapping products (e.g. resource maps), and a data engine for hosting new observations that are not available in other contemporary lunar data tools [1]. Visualization of PSRs: The current presentation focuses on the work performed by the authors, to consume a unique dataset of super-enhanced images of the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) at the lunar poles which were produced by the Hyper-effective nOise Removal U-net Software (HORUS) tool [3]. This tool was developed in direct support of NASA's VIPER and Artemis programs to enhance the extremely low-light images of the interior of PSRs and provide the first-time ability to see within these regions at and discern surface features (i.e. boulders and craters) down to 3 meters in size. We focused on the region near Nobili crater near Lunar south pole, selected site for VIPER mission and stitched several images to create a high-resolution map within one of the PSR of Nobile crater. Line of Sight Analysis and Traverse Planning in PSRs: We have developed an in-built line of sight analysis (LOS) tool in CMS that analyzes the terrain profile and obstructions and provides the visibility of a given terrain for a remote observer. This tool was utilized to perform viewshed analysis to investigate the area inside the PSR, a remote observer such as a rover could see without actually crossing the region. Figure 1 shows the viewshed analysis on the PSR in Nobile region. The yellow pin shows the observer location outside the PSR. The yellow area shows the visible part of PSR. The obstructed area with no visibility for the observer is shown in red. Figure 1: (left) PSR image on top of a high-resolution mosaic of sunlit images of a crater, in Nobile region (right) Viewshed Analysis of the same PSR with observer location shown by yellow pin. This analysis was extended further to set different heights for various observers and then perform the viewshed analysis. Combining the different visibility profiles can help designing improved traverses within the crater. Future plans: Eventually, HORUS datasets will be integrated into CMS as a layer in selected lunar polar regions. Hazard Maps will then be created based on terrain analysis in those regions. This integration will enable multiple scientific and exploration applications, such as designing traverses within PSRs, analyzing potential landing and science mission targets, investigating the meter-scale geomorphology of PSRs, including craters, boulder, surface roughness, mass wasting features and other indications of the presence of water-ice and other volatiles. Acknowledgments: CMS developers team including Kaitlyn J. Dickinson, Tyler A. Lucarz, Tyler W. Choi from USRA, NASA WorldWind Advisory team including Mark Peterson and Guillermo Miguel Del Castillo, HORUS team member V.T. Bickel, Robinson, M., LRO MOON LROC 2 EDR V1.0, LRO-L-LROC-2-EDR-V1.0, NASA Planetary Data System (PDS), 2009. https://doi.org/10.17189/1520643 References: [1] https://celestial.arc.nasa.gov [2] Agrawal et. al. “Celestial Mapping System for Lunar Surface Mapping and Analytics”, Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium, 2021 [3] Bickel V. et al. (2021) Nat Commun 12, 5607

Lunar Mapping↗