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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1992

Effects of clouds on the Earth radiation budget; Seasonal and inter-annual patterns

Seasonal and regional variations of clouds and their effects on the climatological parameters were studied. The climatological parameters surface temperature, solar insulation, short-wave absorbed, long wave emitted, and net radiation were considered. The data of climatological parameters consisted of about 20 parameters of Earth radiation budget and clouds of 2070 target areas which covered the globe. It consisted of daily and monthly averages of each parameter for each target area for the period, Jun. 1979 - May 1980. Cloud forcing and black body temperature at the top of the atmosphere were calculated. Interactions of clouds, cloud forcing, black body temperature, and the climatological parameters were investigated and analyzed.

Dhuria, Harbans L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Saunois, Marielle↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Soil Moisture Estimated from IASI Measurements

A simple yet effective scheme to estimate volumetric soil moisture (VSM) using infrared (IR) land surface emissivity retrieved from satellite IR spectral radiance measurements was recently developed, assuming other parameters impacting the radiative transfer (e.g., temperature, vegetation coverage, and surface roughness) are known for an acceptable time and space reference location. This scheme was applied to a decade of global IR emissivity data retrieved from MetOp-A Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer measurements. Global datasets of monthly-mean 0.25° spatial-grid VSM, estimated from IR emissivity data (denoted as IR-VSM), are assembled to compare with those routinely provided by satellite microwave (MW) multi-sensor measurements (obtained from the ESA CCI website). The IR-VSM dataset is used to demonstrate its spatial variations as well as seasonal-cycles and inter-annual variability which are spatially coherent and consistent with that from MW measurements. Herein we report on some initial evaluation of the IR-VSM absolute values using in-situ measurements available from the Soil Climate Analysis Network of the USDA website. From the 114 ground station locations, we infer a mean bias between monthly-mean in-situ VSM and satellite derived IR-VSM of 0.005 (m3/m3) over the past decade, despite the differences between physical measurements. The absolute accuracy of IR-VSM is also evaluated using an independent source of soil moisture measurements.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Research on Earth's rotation and the effect of atmospheric pressure on vertical deformation and sea level variability

The work done under NASA grant NAG5-485 included modelling the deformation of the earth caused by variations in atmospheric pressure. The amount of deformation near coasts is sensitive to the nature of the oceanic response to the pressure. The PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) data suggest the response is inverted barometer at periods greater than a couple months. Green's functions were constructed to describe the perturbation of the geoid caused by atmospheric and oceanic loading and by the accompanying load-induced deformation. It was found that perturbation of up to 2 cm are possible. Ice mass balance data was used for continental glaciers to look at the glacial contributions to time-dependent changes in polar motion, the lod, the earth's gravitational field, the position of the earth's center-of-mass, and global sea level. It was found that there can be lateral, non-hydrostatic structure inside the fluid core caused by gravitational forcing from the mantle, from the inner core, or from topography at the core/mantle or inner core/outer core boundaries. The nutational and tidal response of a non-hydrostatic earth with a solid inner core was modeled. Monthly, global tide gauge data from PSMSL was used to look at the 18.6-year ocean tide, the 14-month pole tide, the oceanic response to pressure, the linear trend and inter-annual variability in the earth's gravity field, the global sea level rise, and the effects of post glacial rebound. The effects of mantle anelasticity on nutations, earth tides, and tidal variation in the lod was modeled. Results of this model can be used with Crustal Dynamics observations to look at the anelastic dissipation and dispersion at tidal periods. The effects of surface topography on various components of crustal deformation was also modeled, and numerical models were developed of post glacial rebound.

Wahr, John↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget

It is widely assumed that variations in the radiative energy budget at large time and space scales are very small. We present new evidence from a compilation of over two decades of accurate satellite data that the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) tropical radiative energy budget is much more dynamic and variable than previously thought. We demonstrate that the radiation budget changes are caused by changes In tropical mean cloudiness. The results of several current climate model simulations fall to predict this large observed variation In tropical energy budget. The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to Improve cloud modeling in the tropics to support Improved prediction of tropical climate on Inter-annual and decadal time scales. We believe that these data are the first rigorous demonstration of decadal time scale changes In the Earth's tropical cloudiness, and that they represent a new and necessary test of climate models.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS2001

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Ice Sheet Surface Elevation at the Summit of Greenland: Observed and Modeled

Observed seasonal and interannual variations in the surface elevation over the summit of the Greenland ice sheet are modeled using a new temperature-dependent formulation of firn-densification and observed accumulation variations. The observed elevation variations are derived from ERS (European Remote Sensing)-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter data for the period between April 1992 and April 1999. A multivariate linear/sine function is fitted to an elevation time series constructed from elevation differences measured by radar altimetry at orbital crossovers. The amplitude of the seasonal elevation cycle is 0.25 m peak-to-peak, with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. Inter-annually, the elevation decreases to a minimum in 1995, followed by an increase to 1999, with an overall average increase of 4.2 cm a(exp -1) for 1992 to 1999. Our densification formulation uses an initial field-density profile, the AWS (automatic weather station) surface temperature record, and a temperature-dependent constitutive relation for the densification that is based on laboratory measurements of crystal growth rates. The rate constant and the activation energy commonly used in the Arrhenius-type constitutive relation for firn densification are also temperature dependent, giving a stronger temperature and seasonal amplitudes about 10 times greater than previous densification formulations. Summer temperatures are most important, because of the strong non-linear dependence on temperature. Much of firn densification and consequent surface lowering occurs within about three months of the summer season, followed by a surface build-up from snow accumulation until spring. Modeled interannual changes of the surface elevation, using the AWS measurements of surface temperature and accumulation and results of atmospheric modeling of precipitation variations, are in good agreement with the altimeter observations. In the model, the surface elevation decreases about 20 cm over the seven years due to more compaction driven by increasing summer temperatures. The minimum elevation in 1995 is driven mainly by a temporary accumulation decrease and secondarily by warmer temperatures. However, the overall elevation increase over the seven years is dominated by the accumulation increase in the later years.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Rodgers, Edward↗
NASA NTRS1985

Aspects of the stratospheric circulation as derived from SSU data

Five years of global data are available for the stratosphere up to 1 mb from Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSUs) on board NOAA satellites. These data form the basis for a climatological study which concentrates on the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the stratosphere and the connection between the stratospheric circulation and that of the troposphere. Particular emphasis is on the structure of the Southern Hemisphere and how it compares with that of the Northern Hemisphere. The characteristic difference in the vertical structure and propagation of disturbances in the two hemispheres is related to differences in the tropospheric flow and the long-term variation of the basic state of the stratosphere. Disturbances in both hemispheres occur in preferred geographical locations. The final warming, marking the transition from westerly to easterly winds, is an example. These occur asymmetrically with respect to the pole as warm air moves over the pole, usually from the same region.

Michaelis, V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Observation of Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes using the Northernmost MST Radar at Eureka (80 deg N)

We investigate long-term Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSEs) observations conducted by the northern most geographically located MST radar at Eureka (80 deg N, 86 deg W). While PMSEs are a well recognized summer phenomenon in the polar regions, previous calibrated studies at Resolute Bay and Eureka using 51.5 MHz and33 MHz radars respectively, showed that PMSE backscatter signal strengths are relatively weak in the polar cap sites, compared to the auroral zone sites (Swarnalingam et al., 2009b; Singer et al., 2010). Complications arise with PMSEs in which the echo strength is controlled by the electrons, which are, in turn, influenced by heavily charged ice particles as well as the variability in the D-region plasma. In recent years, PMSE experiments were conducted inside the polar cap utilizing a 51 MHz radar located at Eureka. In this paper, we investigate calibrated observations, conducted during 2009-2015. Seasonal and diurnal variations of the backscatter signal strengths are discussed and compared to previously published results from the ALOMAR radar, which is a radar of similar design located in the auroral zone at Andenes, Norway (69 deg N, 16 deg E). At Eureka, while PMSEs are present with a daily occurrence rate which is comparable to the rate observed at the auroral zone site for at least two seasons, they show a great level of inter-annual variability. The occurrence rate for the strong echoes tends to be low. Furthermore, comparison of the absolute backscatter signal strengths at these two sites clearly indicates that the PMSE backscatter signal strength at Eureka is weak. Although this difference could be caused by several factors, we investigate the intensity of the neutral air turbulence at Eureka from the measurements of the Doppler spectrum of the PMSE backscatter signals. We found that the level of the turbulence intensity at Eureka is weak relative to previously reported results from three high latitude sites.

Swarnalingam, N.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Watching the Blue Planet from Space over Recent Decades: What's up for Science and Society?

Since the first photographs of “Earth Rise” taken by the Apollo astronauts in the 1960s galvanized the environmental movement, imaging of our planet from low Earth orbit has grown more sophisticated and diverse. Satellite and astronaut observations and imagery of the changing ocean still have the power to galvanize oceanographers and society. So what are some of the key ideas for oceanography and society that come out of out recent decades of ocean observation from space? Satellite oceanography has made fundamental contributions to our understanding and estimation of changing sea level, winds and storminess over the oceans, primary productivity of the seas, the role of the ocean in the water cycle, and the changes in the ocean known as ocean acidification. Some of these phenomena interact in complex ways and Mother Nature hides the future well. However, some things are clear. Sea level rise has been monitored from space for more than 20 years and now we have a more nuanced understanding of regional variation in sea level rise and the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Wind vectors at the ocean surface have been measured for more than 2 decades and provide evidence for shifts in wind patterns that help, for example, explain some of the regional variations in sea level rise. Chlorophyll-a has been estimated in a multi-decadal record of observations and is being used to describe the shifts and trends in ocean primary productivity. Sea surface temperature estimation from space has records going back to the 1970s and provides critical information for the interaction of the ocean with the atmosphere. Sea surface salinity has been measured from space only within the last decade and provides a novel new view of regional, seasonal, and inter-annual changes in the ocean related to precipitation, river run-off, and eddy transport. Potential changes in the Earth’s water cycle have a huge societal impact.

Blue Planet from Space↗
NASA NTRS2003

Optimal Observations for Variational Data Assimilation

An important aspect of Ocean state estimation is the design of an observing system that allows the efficient study of climate aspects in the ocean. A solution of the design problem is presented here in terms of optimal observations that emerge as nondimensionalized singular vectors of the modified data resolution matrix. The actual computation is feasible only for scalar quantities in the limit of large observational errors. In the framework of a lo resolution North Atlantic primitive equation model it is demonstrated that such optimal observations when applied to determining the strength of the volume and heat transport across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, perform significantly better than traditional section data. On seasonal to inter-annual time-scales optimal observations are located primarily along the continental shelf and information about heat-transport, wind stress and stratification is being communicated via boundary waves and advective processes. On time-scales of about a month, sea surface height observations appear to be more efficient in reconstructing the cross-ridge heat transport than hydrographic observations. Optimal observations also provide a tool for understanding how the ocean state is effected by anomalies of integral quantities such as meridional heat transport.

Koehl, Armin↗
NASA NTRS1988

Tracer water transport and subgrid precipitation variation within atmospheric general circulation models

A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Daily MODIS 500 m Reflectance Anisotropy Direct Broadcast (DB) Products for Monitoring Vegetation Phenology Dynamics

Land surface vegetation phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring ecosystem variation in response to changes in climatic factors. The primary objective of the current article is to examine the utility of the daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy direct broadcast (DB) product for monitoring the evolution of vegetation phenological trends over selected crop, orchard, and forest regions. Although numerous model-fitted satellite data have been widely used to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of land surface phenological patterns to understand phenological process and phenomena, current efforts to investigate the details of phenological trends, especially for natural phenological variations that occur on short time scales, are less well served by remote sensing challenges and lack of anisotropy correction in satellite data sources. The daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy product is employed to retrieve daily vegetation indices (VI) of a 1 year period for an almond orchard in California and for a winter wheat field in northeast China, as well as a 2 year period for a deciduous forest region in New Hampshire, USA. Compared with the ground records from these regions, the VI trajectories derived from the cloud-free and atmospherically corrected MODIS Nadir BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) capture not only the detailed footprint and principal attributes of the phenological events (such as flowering and blooming) but also the substantial inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates the utility of the daily 500 m MODIS reflectance anisotropy DB product to provide daily VI for monitoring and detecting changes of the natural vegetation phenology as exemplified by study regions comprising winter wheat, almond trees, and deciduous forest.

Vegetation↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of the Impacts of Biomass Burning Aerosols on the NASA GEOS Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Emission sources of trace gases and aerosol particles in the South American (SA)and African (Af) continents have a strong seasonal and space variability associated with the extensive vegetation fires activities. In both continents, during the austral winter, the fires affect mainly tropical forest and savannah-type biomes and are mostly associated with deforestation and agricultural/pasture land management. Smoke aerosol particles, on average, contribute to at least 90% of the total aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible spectrum in the case of the South America regional smoke. Smoke aerosols also act as cloud condensation nuclei affecting cloud microphysics properties and therefore, changing the radiation budget, hydrological cycle and global circulation patterns over disturbed areas (Kaufman, 1995; Rosenfeld, 1999; Andreae,et al., 2004; Koren et al., 2004, Zhang, 2008; Ott et al., 2010; Randles et al., 2013). This study aims to evaluate and quantify the impact of including a comprehensive emission field of biomass burning aerosol on the performance of a seasonal climate forecast system, not only regarding the AOD itself but mainly on the meteorological state variable (e.g., precipitation and temperature). To address the questions put above, we designed two numerical experiments: 1- named"AERO_CTL" which applies the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED) emissions estimated with intra-diurnal variation (hereafter, BBE), and 2- named "AERO_CLM" where the sourcee mission is based on a climatology of the QFED emissions, with only monthly variation(hereafter, BBCLIM). Hindcast simulations were produced using the Goddard Earth ObservingSystem global circulation model, version 5, sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS5-S2S) system with a nominal spatial resolution of 56km (Rienecker et al., 2008). In both experiments, the aerosol feedbacks from cloud developments and radiation interactions were accounted. The two experiments consisted of 4 members each and ran from June to November spanning over the years 2000 to 2015. Model performance was evaluated by calculating statistical metrics on the mean area of SA and Af. Our results demonstrated that the skill model in predicting AOD is significantly improve when BBE source emission is applied over SA, but not over the Afcontinent. Over SA, the correlation between the AERO_CTL model configuration and MERRA-2 is 0.93 (R2= 0.86, RMS=0.02, BIAS=0.01), while the AERO_CLM model presents a value of0.81 (R2= 0.65, RMS=0.04, BIAS=0.06). However, the AERO_CTL experiment better represents the inter-annual variability of the AOS in both regions. The gain of the skill in predicting the AOD by the AERO_CTL experiment is also seen in some meteorological variables. We observed an increase in the model skill in predicting the 2-meter temperature and precipitation of up to 0.3 for the AERO_CTL experiment in comparison to the AERO_CLM. AERO_CLM. According to the analyzed hindcast, we inferred that representing the BBE more realistically implies in a significant gain of skills in the seasonal climate forecasting over SA and Af continents.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2001

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗