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Joint Lead-Free Solder Test Program for High Reliability Military and Space Applications

Current and future space and defense systems face potential risks from the continued use of tin-lead solder, including: compliance with current environmental regulations, concerns about potential environmental legislation banning lead-containing products, reduced mission readiness, and component obsolescence with lead surface finishes. For example, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has lowered the Toxic Chemical Release reporting threshold for lead to 100 pounds. Overseas, the Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) and the Restriction on Hazardous Substances (RoHS) Dicctives in Europe and similar mandates in Japan have instilled concern that a legislative body will prohibit the use of lead in aerospace/military electronics soldering. Any potential banning of lead compounds could reduce the supplier base and adversely affect the readiness of missions led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). Before considering lead-free electronics for system upgrades or future designs, however, it is important for the DoD and NASA to know whether lead-free solders can meet their systems' requirements. No single lead-free solder is likely to qualify for all defense and space applications. Therefore, it is important to validate alternative solders for discrete applications. As a result of the need for comprehensive test data on the reliability of lead-free solders, a partnership was formed between the DoD, NASA, and several original equipment manufactures (OEMs) to conduct solder-joint reliability (laboratory) testing of three lead-free solder alloys on newly manufactured and reworked circuit cards to generate performance data for high-reliability (IPC Class 3) applications.

Brown, Christina↗

Energy and Water Management

Energy efficiency isn't just a good idea; it's a necessity, both for cost reasons and to meet federal regulatory requirements. First, rising energy unit costs continue to erode NASA's mission budget. NASA spent roughly $156M on facility energy in FY 2007. Although that represents less than one per cent of NASA's overall annual budget, the upward trend in energy costs concerns the agency. While NASA reduced consumption 13%, energy unit costs have risen 63%. Energy cost increases counteract the effects of energy conservation, which results in NASA buying less yet spending more. The second factor is federal energy legislation. The National Energy Conservation Policy Act, as amended by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, Executive Order (EO) 13423 (January, 2007), and the Energy Independence and Security Act (December, 2007), mandates energy/water conservation goals for all federal agencies, including NASA. There are also reporting requirements associated with this legislation. The Energy/Water Management Task was created to support NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division (HO EMD) in meeting these requirements. With assistance from TEERM, HQ EMD compiled and submitted the NASA Annual Report to the Department of Energy FY 2007. The report contains information on how NASA is meeting federally mandated energy and water management goals. TEERM monitored input for timeliness, errors, and conformity to the new energy/water reporting guidelines and helped compile the information into the final report. TEERM also assists NASA Energy/Water Management with proposal and award calls, updates to the energy/water management database, and facilitating communication within the energy/water management community. TEERM is also supporting NASA and the Interagency Working Group (IWG) on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. Established shortly after the President announced the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative in 2003, this IWG serves as the mechanism for collaboration among the Federal agencies involved in hydrogen-related research, development, and demonstration. TEERM developed a matrix showing all Hydrogen and Fuel Cell activities from the various NASA centers to be included in the Group's extensive hydrogen research taxonomy of past, present, and future hydrogen activities of the Federal government.

Valek, Susan E.↗

Tailoring NIST Security Controls for the Ground System: Selection and Implementation -- Recommendations for Information System Owners

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) invests millions of dollars in spacecraft and ground system development, and in mission operations in the pursuit of scientific knowledge of the universe. In recent years, NASA sent a probe to Mars to study the Red Planet's upper atmosphere, obtained high resolution images of Pluto, and it is currently preparing to find new exoplanets, rendezvous with an asteroid, and bring a sample of the asteroid back to Earth for analysis. The success of these missions is enabled by mission assurance. In turn, mission assurance is backed by information assurance. The information systems supporting NASA missions must be reliable as well as secure. NASA - like every other U.S. Federal Government agency - is required to manage the security of its information systems according to federal mandates, the most prominent being the Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA) of 2002 and the legislative updates that followed it. Like the management of enterprise information technology (IT), federal information security management takes a "one-size fits all" approach for protecting IT systems. While this approach works for most organizations, it does not effectively translate into security of highly specialized systems such as those supporting NASA missions. These systems include command and control (C&C) systems, spacecraft and instrument simulators, and other elements comprising the ground segment. They must be carefully configured, monitored and maintained, sometimes for several years past the missions' initially planned life expectancy, to ensure the ground system is protected and remains operational without any compromise of its confidentiality, integrity and availability. Enterprise policies, processes, procedures and products, if not effectively tailored to meet mission requirements, may not offer the needed security for protecting the information system, and they may even become disruptive to mission operations. Certain protective measures for the general enterprise may not be as efficient within the ground segment. This is what the authors have concluded through observations and analysis of patterns identified from the various security assessments performed on NASA missions such as MAVEN, OSIRIS-REx, New Horizons and TESS, to name a few. The security audits confirmed that the framework for managing information system security developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) for the federal government, and adopted by NASA, is indeed effective. However, the selection of the technical, operational and management security controls offered by the NIST model - and how they are implemented - does not always fit the nature and the environment where the ground system operates in even though there is no apparent impact on mission success. The authors observed that unfit controls, that is, controls that are not necessarily applicable or sufficiently effective in protecting the mission systems, are often selected to facilitate compliance with security requirements and organizational expectations even if the selected controls offer minimum or non-existent protection. This paper identifies some of the standard security controls that can in fact protect the ground system, and which of them offer little or no benefit at all. It offers multiple scenarios from real security audits in which the controls are not effective without, of course, disclosing any sensitive information about the missions assessed. In addition to selection and implementation of controls, the paper also discusses potential impact of recent legislation such as the Federal Information Security Modernization Act (FISMA) of 2014 - aimed at the enterprise - on the ground system, and offers other recommendations to Information System Owners (ISOs).

GOVERNANCE↗

A Scalable Method for Decarbonizing Modular Building Solutions: Preprint

The decarbonization movement emphasizes the shift in focus from energy efficiency to directly reducing global-warming impact. Blokable, LLC, a vertically integrated modular builder with an all-electric portfolio, worked with NREL on a roadmap to decarbonize its high-performance building product at a relative cost advantage by utilizing the learning curves of mass production. Previous decarbonization literature focused on either i) lifecycle assessments, or ii) efficiency measures. These decarbonization exercises were bespoke to individual building projects and did not consider positive feedback loops of builder experience or process repetition. Vertically integrated, prefab builders possess the unique ability to leverage learning and repetition to decarbonize their design-build-operate process. This collaboration between Blokable and NREL resulted in a decarbonization strategy utilizing the company's scaling and production efficiencies, on-site renewable energy and storage, and the projected evolution of building components over time based on trends and emerging legislation. The method developed here encompasses a growing business model, lifecycle carbon assessment, and projected changes in product and grid emissions over time due to existing trends and emerging legislation. This methodology incorporates learning-curve efficiencies gleaned from scaled manufacturing, as well as open-source tools integration for energy and carbon accounting. The output projects and compares cost and carbon savings per modular unit as production increases to 10,000 dwelling units annually over 15 years. The resulting roadmap illustrates a path to roughly 60% carbon savings and beyond-net-zero-energy performance at no incremental cost by 2030. The methodology can be mapped to other integrated or productized builders for methodical decarbonization.

affordable housing↗

A Scalable Method for Decarbonizing Modular Building Solutions

The decarbonization movement emphasizes the shift in focus from energy efficiency to directly reducing global-warming impact. Blokable, LLC, a vertically integrated modular builder with an all-electric portfolio, worked with NREL on a roadmap to decarbonize its high-performance building product at a relative cost advantage by utilizing the learning curves of mass production. Previous decarbonization literature focused on either i) lifecycle assessments, or ii) efficiency measures. These decarbonization exercises were bespoke to individual building projects and did not consider positive feedback loops of builder experience or process repetition. Vertically integrated, prefab builders possess the unique ability to leverage learning and repetition to decarbonize their design-build-operate process. This collaboration between Blokable and NREL resulted in a decarbonization strategy utilizing the company's scaling and production efficiencies, on-site renewable energy and storage, and the projected evolution of building components over time based on trends and emerging legislation. The method developed here encompasses a growing business model, lifecycle carbon assessment, and projected changes in product and grid emissions over time due to existing trends and emerging legislation. This methodology incorporates learning-curve efficiencies gleaned from scaled manufacturing, as well as open-source tools integration for energy and carbon accounting. The output projects and compares cost and carbon savings per modular unit as production increases to 10,000 dwelling units annually over 15 years. The resulting roadmap illustrates a path to roughly 60% carbon savings and beyond-net-zero-energy performance at no incremental cost by 2030. The methodology can be mapped to other integrated or productized builders for methodical decarbonization.

affordable housing↗

Plant Engineers Solar Energy Handbook: Southern California Region

Discussed in order after the introduction are solar components and systems (collectors, storage, service hot water systems, space heating with liquid and air systems, space cooling, heat pumps and controls); computer programs for system optimization; local solar and weather data; a description of buildings and plants in Southern California applying solar technology; current Federal and California solar legislation; standards, codes and performance testing information; a listing of manufacturers, distributors, and professional services available in Southern California region; and information access. Finally, solar design check lists for those engineers who wish to design their own systems. The program for the Solar Workshop for the Plant Engineer, March 30, 1978, Los Angeles, California is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Panel Session 14: US NRC - Current and Emerging US NRC Regulatory Topics

This panel focused on several current and emerging US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory issues impacting the commercial radioactive waste arena in the US. The panelists provided different perspectives on key issues such as the revision of 10 Code of Federal Regulations Part 61 'Licensing Requirements For Land Disposal Of Radioactive Waste', the scoping study on very low-level waste, the consolidated interim storage of spent nuclear fuel and other timely regulatory topics. Panelists with presentations: Overview of NRC Low-Level Radioactive Waste Activities and Initiatives (Patricia Holahan); US Nuclear Power Plant Waste Management - US LLW Disposal Issues (Joe Weismann); Decommissioning Rule (Vern C. Rogers); What is TRU? Definition, Legislation, and Rulemaking (David Carlson); LLRW Regulatory Topics of Interest in Texas (Bobby Janecka); International Low Level Waste Management Practices (Richard McGrath)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

New Designed Containers for Activated ILW from NPP Decommissioning - 20208

The paper focuses on packaging of dismantled and fragmented reactor components into containers and their transport to their storage and/or disposal facility within the immediate dismantling strategy applied on decommissioning of nuclear power plant (NPP) finally shutdown after standard operation. The main purpose of the paper is to present the process of design, manufacture, testing and use of new transport and storage containers for activated intermediate level waste (ILW) from V1 NPP decommissioning at Jaslovske Bohunice site. Legislation conditions, container selection process, requirements on their design and manufacture, scope of associated licensing documentation and technical procedures applied up to their use on site are described in detail. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

New Beginnings: Optimising Waste and End-state at UK Nuclear Sites to Enable Environmental Permit surrender (the GRR) - 20193

The decommissioning of nuclear sites involves the management of large volumes of radioactive waste, other conventional waste, and the clean-up of land and groundwater contamination. In the UK, the disposal of radioactive waste from nuclear sites is regulated by the Environment Agency (England), Natural Resources Wales (Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Scotland). All three environment agencies seek to make sure that the generation and disposal of radioactive waste is optimised: ensuring impacts to people are 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA). With a large proportion of UK nuclear sites embarking on decommissioning, the environment agencies have collaboratively developed new guidance: the 'Management of radioactive waste from the decommissioning of nuclear sites: Guidance on the Requirements for Release from radioactive substances regulation' (referred to as the GRR)[1]. The environment agencies worked in liaison with the Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR), the UK nuclear safety regulator, and the UK government body responsible, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA). Prior to finalising the guidance, a 12 month trial was completed at three of the NDA's nuclear sites, enabling the environment agencies to test their draft GRR guidance against 'real world scenarios' and the challenge of incorporating its requirements into decommissioning plans. Experience gained during the trial was incorporated into the current version of the GRR, published in July 2018. The GRR represents the 'new beginning' of this paper's title because for the first time, the UK environmental regulators have expressed in detail their requirements for surrender of environmental permits for nuclear sites. The GRR provides a framework for a UK nuclear site to plan, assess and justify its management of radioactive waste and deliver through decommissioning, an optimal, environmentally safe and sustainable end-state. This paper will describe the requirements and technical standards within the GRR, the establishment of defensible clean-up criteria and the production of a Waste Management Plan (WMP), supported by a Site-Wide Environmental Safety Case (SWESC). It will describe the experience gleaned by operators and regulators during the trial and it will highlight current work by regulators to implement the new approach proportionately. Finally, this paper will look forward and outline planned amendments to legislation in the UK affecting nuclear sites that should enable the full benefits of the GRR to be realised in the future. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Sustainable Electric Vehicle Batteries for a Sustainable World: Perspectives on Battery Cathodes, Environment, Supply Chain, Manufacturing, Life Cycle, and Policy

Abstract Li‐ion batteries (LIBs) can reduce carbon emissions by powering electric vehicles (EVs) and promoting renewable energy development with grid‐scale energy storage. However, LIB production and electricity generation still heavily rely on fossil fuels at present, resulting in major environmental concerns. Are LIBs as environmentally friendly and sustainable as expected at the current stage? In the past 5 years, a skyrocketing growth of the EV market has been witnessed. LIBs have garnered huge attention from academia, industry, government, non‐governmental organizations, investors, and the general public. Tremendous volumes of LIBs are already implemented in EVs today, with a continuing, exponential growth expected for the years to come. When LIBs reach their end‐of‐life in the next decades, what technologies can be in place to enable second‐life or recycling of batteries? Herein, life cycle assessment studies are examined to evaluate the environmental impact of LIBs, and EVs are compared with internal combustion engine vehicles regarding environmental sustainability. To provide a holistic view of the LIB development, this Perspective provides insights into materials development, manufacturing, recycling, legislation and policy, and beyond. Last but not least, the future development of LIBs and charging infrastructures in light of emerging technologies are envisioned.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An overview of the evolving jurisdictional scope of the U.S. Clean Water Act for hydrologists

Abstract The Clean Water Act (CWA) is the primary federal mechanism by which the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of streams, lakes, and wetlands are protected in the United States. The CWA has evolved considerably since its initial passage in 1948, including explicit expansions and contractions of jurisdictional scope through a series of legislative actions, court decisions, and agency rules. Here, we provide a practical summary of the CWA's evolution, detailing the major updates or revisions and their circumstances. Additionally, we identify the jurisdictional scope of the law for rivers and streams, lakes, and wetlands based on the language used and implementation by the agencies during the same time period. While the rulemaking process commonly uses language that will be abstract to many hydrologists, understanding the on‐the‐ground implications, quantifying regulatory (un)certainties, and assessing the magnitude of changes through time is important to understanding the implications of environmental regulation development, litigation, and enforcement. Thus, we translate the enforcement norms and definitions into quantitative estimates for Clean Water Act scope in the Wabash River Basin (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, USA) as a demonstration of the spatial consequences of changing regulatory language. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Water Governance Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Defining an industrial heat pump: A review & synthesis

Clear and understandable definitions of advanced energy technologies are not common and often confuse those who are not experts. This review paper addresses a critical issue in the field of heat pumps: the ambiguity surrounding the term “industrial heat pump.” The term, as discussed in various literature and media, often leads to misconceptions about the capabilities and applications of heat pumps, particularly in industrial contexts. This review paper seeks to refine and unify the definition of industrial heat pumps by analyzing existing academic and commercial literature, industry reports, and classifications. Unique identifiers explored for the definition of an industrial heat pump include the use of waste heat, operating temperature ranges, size specifications, and specific end-use applications. The study reveals differences in how industrial heat pumps are defined in academic and commercial contexts, highlighting the need for a standardized definition to facilitate better communication among manufacturers, policymakers, and end users. This is especially important considering recent legislative efforts such as the HEAT Act, which seeks to promote industrial heat pump adoption. The proposed definition aims to provide clarity while supporting the effective deployment of industrial heat pumps. With proper adoption, the definition will help promote the role of industrial heat pumps in achieving energy efficiency goals in the industrial sector. The intended impact is for the definition to serve as a foundational reference for future research and policy development.

Heat pump characteristics↗

Self-consumption for energy communities in Spain: A regional analysis under the new legal framework

European climate polices acknowledge the role that energy communities can play in the energy transition. Self-consumption installations shared among those living in the same building are a good example of such energy communities. In this work, a regional analysis of optimal self-consumption installations under the new legal framework recently passed in Spain is performed. Results show that the optimal sizing of the installation leads to economic savings for self-consumers in all the territory, for both options with and without remuneration for energy surplus. A sensitivity analysis on technology costs revealed that batteries still require noticeably cost reductions to be cost-effective in a behind the meter self-consumption environment. In addition, solar compensation mechanisms make batteries less attractive in a scenario of low PV costs, since feeding PV surplus into the grid, yet less efficient, becomes more cost-effective. Furthermore, an improvement for the energy surplus remuneration policy in the context of the current legislation was proposed and analysed. It consists in the inclusion of the economic value of the avoided power losses in the remuneration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Walking on the dark side: Anthropogenic factors limit suitable habitat for gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) in a large natural area covering Belarus and Ukraine

Due to successful conservation initiatives and legislations, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is recolonising its historic range in Europe. However, wolves have never been extirpated across large areas in Eastern Europe but are often constrained to remote and inaccessible places due to centuries of persecution. This study aimed to identify the potentially suitable wolf habitats in Polesia, a massive cross-border lowland region extending over southern Belarus and northern Ukraine, which are often neglected in large carnivore studies at the continental scale. We hypothesized that anthropogenic rather than environmental factors govern wolf habitat suitability. We used a dataset of 4191 GPS locations obtained from radio-collared wolves (n = 26) and confirmed observations (n = 231) during 2014–2021 and applied maximum entropy method to estimate relative habitat suitability for wolves in Polesia. Artificial light at night (ALAN), proportion of cropland and tree cover were the most important factors affecting wolf habitat suitability. Road densities contributed poorly to predicting habitat suitability for wolves. Our models predicted a quarter of Polesia as suitable habitat and revealed priority areas connecting the important source populations in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone in the east and the Bialowieza Forest in the west and thus essential for long-term wolf conservation. Our results provide the bases for effective, long-term wolf monitoring and management programs in both Belarus and Ukraine. However, national and transboundary wolf management in Polesia has been extremely challenging since 2022 due to the ongoing war and subsequent habitat degradation in this part of Europe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

To what extent can decommissioning options for marine artificial structures move us toward environmental targets?

Switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy is key to international energy transition efforts and the move toward net zero. For many nations, this requires decommissioning of hundreds of oil and gas infrastructure in the marine environment. Current international, regional and national legislation largely dictates that structures must be completely removed at end-of-life although, increasingly, alternative decommissioning options are being promoted and implemented. Yet, a paucity of real-world case studies describing the impacts of decommissioning on the environment make decision-making with respect to which option(s) might be optimal for meeting international and regional strategic environmental targets challenging. To address this gap, we draw together international expertise and judgment from marine environmental scientists on marine artificial structures as an alternative source of evidence that explores how different decommissioning options might ameliorate pressures that drive environmental status toward (or away) from environmental objectives. Synthesis reveals that for 37 United Nations and Oslo-Paris Commissions (OSPAR) global and regional environmental targets, experts consider repurposing or abandoning individual structures, or abandoning multiple structures across a region, as the options that would most strongly contribute toward targets. This collective view suggests complete removal may not be best for the environment or society. However, different decommissioning options act in different ways and make variable contributions toward environmental targets, such that policy makers and managers would likely need to prioritise some targets over others considering political, social, economic, and ecological contexts. Current policy may not result in optimal outcomes for the environment or society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How do the research and public communities view biofuel development?

Understanding how public and research view biofuel development, especially the unsynchronized views, can explain the gaps between the actual biofuel production and consumption and the government mandates in the US. Applying a comparative text mining technique, these views are explored using 9924 news articles and 57,849 research abstracts. It is found both the public and research communities respond actively to major policy and incentive programs and market conditions and the public has been closely following important research advances. However, research and practice should be coordinated to achieve economies of scale for regular and alternative biofuels. Priority is particularly needed for policy research to support legislation and enforcement and remove technical barriers to commercialization; meanwhile, greater attention is needed to prompt the commercialization of mature technologies. In addition, sentiment analysis shows positive public perceptions in general and negative perceptions primarily stemming from fraud in biofuel tax-credit programs with minor concerns on unintended negative impacts of biofuel development and policy implementation issues. This study contributes to methodology by using cutting-edge text-mining techniques to the largest and most up-to-date datasets of public news articles and research publication abstracts so as to compare public and academic views on biofuel development. As a result, this study also contributes to knowledge discovery by providing new perspectives on biofuel development, which will support policy design and identify future research directions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Liu, Song↗