SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “lifetime prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Feature engineering for machine learning enabled early prediction of battery lifetime

Accurate battery lifetime estimates enable accelerated design of novel battery materials and determination of optimal use protocols for longevity in deployments. Unfortunately, traditional battery testing may take years to reach thousands of cycles. Recent studies have shown that machine learning (ML) tools can predict lithium-ion battery lifetimes from 100 or fewer preliminary cycles, representing only a few weeks of cycling. Until now, conclusions about the efficacy and broad applicability of these predictions across a variety of cathode chemistries have been limited by available experimental information. In this work, we leverage a battery cycling dataset representing six cathode chemistries (NMC111, NMC532, NMC622, NMC811, HE5050, and 5Vspinel), multiple electrolyte/anode compositions, and 300 total carefully prepared pouch batteries to explore feature selection and battery chemistry's role in ML battery lifetime predictions. Here, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 78 cycles in prediction was seen for a chemistry-spanning test set from 100 preliminary cycles. Furthermore, an MAE of 103 cycles was seen when using only the first cycle. This study represents an in-depth investigation of strategies for feature selection for battery lifetime prediction, ML models' generalization across multiple battery chemistries, and predictions beyond the training set in the chemical space.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model calibration of the liquid mercury spallation target using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions

The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source. We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some individual sensors experiencing up to 30% improvement. The calibrated simulations can aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime, which reduces abrupt failure and saves tremendous amount of costs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of Creep-Induced Strain Using a Symbolic Regression-Based Model

Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The role of defect charge, crystal chemistry, and crystal structure on positron lifetimes of vacancies in oxides

Density functional theory based positron lifetime (PL) calculations for cation and oxygen monovacancies in a range of oxides—hematite, magnetite, hercynite, and alumina—have been conducted to compare the impact of defect chemistry and crystal structure on the predicted lifetimes. The role of defect charge state has also been examined. A comparison across the same type of crystalline structure but different composition shows that oxygen vacancies only induce a slight increase in the positron-electron overlap and thus barely modify the PL as compared to the bulk. A much more substantial increase of PL is observed for cation monovacancies, regardless of crystal structure or the elemental nature of the vacancy, which we ascribe to an enhanced localization of charge density around the vacant site. The structural and compositional richness of the oxide leads to longer defect PLs, with defected hercynite exhibiting the longest PLs. The charge state of cation monovacancies modifies only by a small percentage the positron localization, relegating to secondary importance the metal defect's oxidation state in modifying the lifetime of positrons within vacancy traps.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

A&L Annual Report: Kapton Strength

Exploding Foil Initiator (EFI) systems function by launching a polymer flyer (often referred to as a slapper) at a high explosive (HE) pellet, which is intended to shock-initiate the HE. Flyer characteristics (e.g., shape, planarity, etc.) are extremely important in this respect, governing their ability to initiate the HE. Polymer models currently used in these systems are largely unvalidated, potentially compromising the integrity of magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) predictions of EFI function. An improved EFI MHD modelling capability is expected to: (1) expedite optimization of EFI-based initiation system design, (2) enable consideration of EFI-related aging and corresponding lifetime predictions, and (3) potentially minimize the number of costly experiments required to certify EFI designs. To address this knowledge gap, several years ago we began a computational project to develop a higher-fidelity model for Kapton, a Polyimide copolymer most commonly employed as the flyer material in EFI devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Open data sets for assessing photovoltaic system reliability

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have become a cornerstone of renewable energy strategies, particularly due to the significant reduction in solar power costs over the past decade. However, the long-term reliability of PV installations presents a persistent challenge, requiring the development of advanced monitoring and predictive maintenance strategies. A wide range of data types is used to evaluate the health of PV systems, including environmental conditions, electrical performance, and inspection imagery. These data enable methodologies such as machine learning (ML) models for lifetime prediction and computer vision techniques for defect detection. However, the acquisition of high-quality and comprehensive data is difficult, particularly in terms of long-term consistency and data variety. Publicly available data sets serve as valuable resources for addressing these challenges, but they often suffer from fragmentation and are difficult to access. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing open-source data sets related to PV degradation, analyzing their features, functionalities, and potential applications. We categorize these data sets based on the specific aspects of PV system information they cover, such as environmental conditions, operational monitoring, image inspection and module materials, and propose relevant tools and ML models for processing them. In addition, we propose practices for future data collection and usage, while also discussing potential directions in data-driven research. Our aim is to enhance data utilization and publication among researchers and industry professionals, promoting a deeper understanding of the role of data in enhancing the performance and durability of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reliability Assessment of Cooling Fans for PV Inverters: Testing, Modeling, and Case Studies

The reliability of photovoltaic (PV) inverters is critical for long-term solar system performance, with cooling fan failures frequently leading to costly downtime. While much research exists on general cooling fan reliability, little attention has been given to fans operating within PV inverters and their unique environmental challenges. Here, this article proposes a comprehensive methodology to address this gap. First, a failure mode and effects analysis is performed on fans to identify the key failure mechanisms in PV applications, their corresponding stressors, and the models necessary for lifetime prediction. Second, an accelerated life test is designed and conducted to collect valuable experimental data for PV inverter fans in a reasonable amount of time. Third, a mathematical conversion of dynamic mission profiles into effective constant stress levels is derived. Fourth, case studies are given, showcasing lifetime estimates that account for geographic variations in mission profile data. The results demonstrate that this integrated approach leads to an accurate reliability assessment for PV inverter cooling fans.

accelerated life testing (ALT)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Silicon on High Temperature Oxidation of Fe-Cr-Si Alloys in Carbon Dioxide Environments

Supercritical carbon dioxide offers the potential for efficient and sustainable power generation. Identifying materials that can be used to construct the high temperature portions of the cycle is a barrier to developing this technology. Various Fe-Cr alloys have been identified as promising construction materials due to a favorable combination of high temperature strength, commercial availability, and cost. The effect of minor alloying elements, particularly Si, has been shown to significantly impact the oxidation and carburization processes for these alloys after relatively short duration exposures in hot carbon dioxide. The long-term impact is less understood, making it challenging to predict performance of real components that will be in service for many years. The objectives in this project are to better understand the long-term oxidation and carburization behavior of Fe-Cr alloys and the important role of Si; to enhance the existing body of literature on the long-term exposure of alloys to hot carbon dioxide; and enable lifetime predictions for future supercritical carbon dioxide power cycle components.

Menna, Valerie↗

DOE OSTI2023

LLNL FY23 Aging and Lifetimes Exit Criteria: Milestone 8650, GC #4

Silicone rubbers are important materials within the complex and are used in various applications due to wide operating temperatures, favorable aging characteristics, and chemical inertness. However, silicone rubbers are susceptible to degradation in the presence of acid or base. The goal of the project is to design outgassing vessels to probe material degradation byproducts from additively manufactured (AM) silicones compressed against Arrhenius base under dry (sub 100 ppm moisture) environments. The overarching goal of this task is to develop a mechanistic understanding of degradation from experimental data that will be used to inform predictive lifetime and aging models. An outgassing chamber for multi-material compressive aging was designed. The chamber consists of a stainless-steel enclosure, which is hermetically sealed once AM silicone samples are compressed against Arrhenius base pellets in compression rigs (Fig. 1). Outgassing chambers, compression rigs, and accessories were procured, arrived onsite, and received surface treatments. Outgassing of degradation byproducts will be monitored over 12 weeks at 35 °C and 70 °C.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detection of diffusion limited oxidation in thermally aged ethylene propylene rubber cable insulation material

The lifetime prediction of electrical cable insulation in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is primarily based on accelerated aging. Polymeric insulation exposed to accelerated aging at high temperatures may demonstrate diffusion limited oxidation (DLO) where oxygen within the material is consumed faster than can be supplied by diffusion from the surrounding air. This situation leads to equilibrium oxidation at the exposed surfaces and limited oxidation away from the surfaces. Therefore, DLO results in a heterogeneously aged material which can lead to underestimation of lifetime for in-service cable insulation. In this study, the presence of inhomogeneous aging caused by DLO was evaluated on cross-sectioned cable insulation specimens made of ethylene propylene rubber (EPR). The studies were performed on thermally aged specimens (165 °C, 1 day and 165 °C, 16 days) using local measurement techniques including nanoindentation, micro-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) - energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). All the results indicate some degree of heterogenous aging, with 165 °C, 16 days, aging demonstrating highest degree of oxidative degradation on the inside edges presumably caused due to copper catalyzed oxidation.

Pallaka, Madhusudhan Reddy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-destructive electrochemical diagnosis of failure mechanisms in aqueous zinc batteries

The early detection of secondary reactions that affect the life and performance of zinc manganese oxide batteries requires a shift from conventional time-consuming and often destructive procedures to rapid lifetime-predictive techniques. In this work, an electrochemical approach is employed to elucidate independent signatures for four common types of failure mechanisms in zinc manganese dioxide (Zn||MnO2) batteries—namely, the loss of zinc inventory, the loss of active material at the cathode, electrolyte depletion, and increased cell impedance. Our findings, specific to coin cell configurations, reveal that each induced failure mechanism can be distinctively modeled and identified based on responses from the rest voltage and columbic-efficiency data for prompt detection. For instance, electrolyte depletion response manifests a distinctive abrupt (>80 %) decrease in columbic efficiency (CE) and charge-rest voltage (Vc) while the discharge-rest voltage remained constant at ~1.3 V. Furthermore, electrolyte rejuvenation of the cell increased the CE to >95 % and restored Vc from ~0.3 to >1.7 V. Recovery experiments and reference performance tests demonstrated consistency between electrochemical descriptors and their associated failure mechanisms. Further, the outcomes of this work provide valuable insights and data models for some of the dominant failure mechanisms present in zinc manganese battery chemistries, which are beneficial to accelerated early-lifetime diagnosis and advancement of Zn batteries development.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Modeling for Accelerated Battery Materials Design in the Small Data Regime

Abstract Machine learning (ML)‐based approaches to battery design are relatively new but demonstrate significant promise for accelerating the timeline for new materials discovery, process optimization, and cell lifetime prediction. Battery modeling represents an interesting and unconventional application area for ML, as datasets are often small but some degree of physical understanding of the underlying processes may exist. This review article provides discussion and analysis of several important and increasingly common questions: how ML‐based battery modeling works, how much data are required, how to judge model performance, and recommendations for building models in the small data regime. This article begins with an introduction to ML in general, highlighting several important concepts for small data applications. Previous ionic conductivity modeling efforts are discussed in depth as a case study to illustrate these modeling concepts. Finally, an overview of modeling efforts in major areas of battery design is provided and several areas for promising future efforts are identified, within the context of typical small data constraints.

Sendek, Austin D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linear viscoelastic characterization of electrically conductive adhesives used as interconnect in photovoltaic modules

Electrically conductive adhesives (ECAs) are incorporated into recent designs of photovoltaic (PV) modules and replace the traditional metallic solders as interconnects. This transition depicts a significant material change, and a proper understanding of the interconnects' mechanical response has not yet been established. However, such an understanding is necessary to (a) identify the driving forces for module degradation and failure, (b) allow for module design optimization, and (c) enable accurate lifetime predictions. This study summarizes the framework for the mechanical materials characterization and modeling of ECAs for PV applications. Only high-fidelity material models are able to capture the rate and temperature dependency of the ECA interconnect and allow for accurate modeling of the materials response. Furthermore, a linear viscoelastic representation is found to describe the mechanical response of the ECAs sufficiently well. The effects of curing conditions and environmental exposure are investigated, and material models for a variety of ECAs are reported and prepared for the use in numerical simulations. Overall, a finite element simulation of a generic submodel of a shingled cell module is used to highlight the need for high-fidelity material models and demonstrates the error made in the predicted stress states by using less sophisticated models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A novel method for quantifying irradiation damage in nuclear graphite using Raman spectroscopy

Raman spectroscopy has long been used in studying irradiation damage in carbon/graphite materials. It is however unclear if the measurements from different types of materials are directly comparable. Further, decoupling the contribution from irradiation temperature and fluence to the total damage in nuclear graphite possessing irradiation damage gradient is currently not readily feasible as it requires a complete set of test reactor irradiation experiments over the relevant temperature and fluence range. A novel methodology has therefore been proposed and developed to quantify total irradiation damage evolution at crystal level based on graphite Raman G-band position shift. Specifically, G-band positions derived from a large number of spectra collected from the fractured surface of microfine-grained POCO ZXF-5Q graphite possessing proton irradiation damage gradient were plotted with open literature Raman data on HOPG, BEPO (AXGP graphite), PCEA and IG-110 graphite as a function of dpa. The total damage level within 2σ beam radius in this POCO graphite was estimated to be equivalent to ~2–5 dpa at ~350–370 °C. Derived G-band positions were then mapped to the three-stage amorphization trajectory model indicating beam centre area has entered the second stage, i.e., transitioning from nanocrystalline graphite into amorphous carbon. G-band position relative shift (ΔG) curve with a ‘turn-around’ peak as a function of total damage can be used for in-service lifetime prediction. Importantly, the developed methodology has the potential to ‘unify’ total damage levels across different grades of nuclear graphite caused by ion, neutron and proton irradiation at different temperatures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Battery aging mode identification across NMC compositions and designs using machine learning

A comprehensive understanding of lithium-ion battery (LiB) lifespan is the key to designing durable batteries and optimizing use protocols. Although battery lifetime prediction methods are flourishing, diagnosis of the root causes of aging and degradation have not yet been well developed nor studied for a broad mixture of designs and use cases. Here, we create a machine-learning (ML)-based framework that distinguishes aging modes using multiple electrochemical signatures recorded cycle-by-cycle. The predominant aging behaviors include a combination of loss of active materials in cathode (LAMPE) and a loss of Li inventory (LLI) in Li plating or solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation, manifested from 44 batteries representing two cathode chemistries, two electrode loadings, and five charging rates. Here, the aging mode classification accuracy is 86% using features within the first 50 cycles and increases to 88% beyond 225 cycles. The same features can quantify the percentage of end-of-life LAMPE with only 4.3% of error.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying multiple synergistic factors on the susceptibility to stress relaxation cracking in variously heat-treated weldments

The 347H austenitic stainless steel has been widely used for pressure vessels and pipeline (PVP) applications due to its excellent creep and corrosion resistance, which fit ideally to the harsh conditions in petrochemical industries, fossil fuel or nuclear power plants, and modern energy storages. However, a failure mode has been commonly observed with cracks emerging at the heat affected zone (HAZ) of weldments during post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) or under intermediate to high temperature service conditions. This phenomenon is termed as Stress Relaxation Cracking (SRC) since the purpose of PWHT is to relieve the welding-induced residual stress fields, or as Stress Age Cracking (SAC) if failure happens during service. A leading literature explanation of this failure suggests that the residual stress relaxation and the precipitation dissolution and/or re-precipitation occur in the same temperature range, which can lead to locally high strains and thus to crack at the grain boundaries. Since in situ spatial measurements of residual stress fields, microstructural evolution, and failure processes are nearly infeasible, this work recourses to a micromechanical finite element framework that models the high temperature failure as the nucleation and growth of grain boundary cavities, whereas various parameters such as thermomechanical loading history and its evolution, the competition of grain-interior dislocation creep and grain-boundary diffusion in failure lifetime, and microstructural heterogeneities (such as the precipitate free zone near grain boundaries) can be quantitatively incorporated. It can be concluded from these microstructure-explicit simulations that an accurate knowledge of residual stress evolution and a carefully calibrated set of material constitutive parameters are the essential prerequisites for lifetime predictions. The understanding of individual governing factors also leads to a mechanistic interpretation of the observed SRC susceptibility C-curves. In conclusion, these results suggest that the criticality of residual stress evolution, but not the precipitation-induced local strains, be the leading factor for SRC.

347H stainless steel weldments↗