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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A Relaxed PV Bus Model in Linear Power Flow

The emerging multimodal active energy resource units make it necessary to introduce constant voltage amplitude buses (PV bus) in the operation of modern distribution systems. To enable the analysis of PV bus using linear power flow models, this letter proposes a relaxed PV bus model for solving power flow related problems using an indirect modeling approach. The developed PV bus model can be applied to linear power flow models in both rectangular and polar coordinates. Besides, the approximation error of the relaxed PV bus model can also be controlled and quantified. Lastly, the proposed relaxed PV bus model is validated using different test systems. According to the numerical studies, the maximum error on the PV bus approximation in all case studies is only 0.61%, and the maximum error of the supporting power at the PV buses is 6.5%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Condition-Based Maintenance of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Power Plant using Machine Learning and Statistical Tools

Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWR) are a type of nuclear power plant that generate clean and reliable energy. The scope of this work is to automate data analysis methodologies to inform a condition-based maintenance strategy of a circulating water system (CWS) of a PHWR. The multiunit CWS provides a continuous supply of water to cool steam condensers, even during transient scenarios, thereby improving the thermal efficiency. This work aims to develop a machine learning (ML) based approach to detect anomalies in heterogeneous data of a CWS in a PHWR to help inform a predictive maintenance strategy. The heterogeneous data include textual and numeric time series data for a PHWR. Natural-language-processing (NLP)-based models are used to analyze textual data contained in work orders and operator logs and an event-timeseries correlation detection method is applied to assist anomalies diagnoses for CWS. An ML model Robust Linear Model (RLM) is also used to remove the seasonal variations in the system variable distributions based on distributions of environmental variables. A machine learning model, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), trained on both original data and data without any seasonal variations will then be used to detect if an anomaly exists. Thus, by moving to an automated methodology to detect, classify, and forecast anomalies, the maintenance strategy would be based on component condition instead of a time-based schedule.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modular Linear Thermoviscoelastic Model

Time-dependent, viscoelastic responses of materials like polymers and glasses have long been studied. As such, a variety of models have been put forth to describe the behavior including simple rheological models (e.g. Maxwell, Kelvin), linear "fading memory" theories, and hereditary integral based linear thermal viscoelastic approaches as well as more recent nonlinear theories that are either integral, fictive temperature, or differential internal state variable based. The current work details a new LINEAR_THERMOVISCOELASTIC model that has been added to LAME. This formulation represents a viscoelastic theory that neglects some of the phenomenological details of the PEC/SPEC models in favor of efficiency and simplicity. Furthermore, this new model is a first step towards developing "modular" viscoelastic capabilities akin to those available with hardening descriptions for plasticity models in LAME. Specifically, multiple different (including user-defined) shift-factor forms are implemented with each being easily selected via parameter specification rather than requiring distinct material models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark of numerical modeling approaches on the systematic performance evaluation of wave energy converters

Different numerical modeling methods have been developed and applied to evaluate a variety of performance indicators of wave energy converters (WECs), including the power performance, structural loads, levelized cost of energy, etc. Based on the modeling fidelity, the commonly used numerical modeling approaches can be classified as linear modeling, weakly nonlinear modeling and fully nonlinear modeling approaches. Each method differs in accuracy and computational efficiency, making them suitable for different stages of WEC design. However, the selection of modeling approach could significantly impact evaluation outcomes. For instance, simplified linear models may underestimate structural loads or overestimate energy production in some operational conditions, potentially leading to less cost-effective designs. Given the widespread utilization of these models, it is essential to understand the uncertainties brought by them in performance evaluations. This work is dedicated to benchmarking different linear-potential-flow-based numerical models for evaluating the systematic performance of WECs. Three representative numerical modeling approaches are considered in this work, including linear frequency-domain modeling, statistically linearized spectral-domain modeling and Cummins equation-based nonlinear time-domain modeling. A generic point absorber WEC is considered as the research reference in this work, and different sea sites are taken into account. The numerical models are utilized to predict critical performance indicators, including power performance, the annual energy production, the capacity factor, the levelized cost of energy and the PTO fatigue loads. By comparing the results, this work identifies the uncertainties associated with different modeling approaches in evaluating WEC performance.

Fatigue↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Linear Elastic Modeling and Homogenization of Marine Energy Composites

The design of fiber-reinforced composite (FRC)-based components for marine energy applications necessitates a fundamental understanding of material properties and the resulting geometry to predict long-term performance. In this work, we present a modeling workflow to predict linear elastic and diffusive bulk properties at the mesoscale for an idealized geometry based on knowledge of fiber and resin properties. A parametric study was performed to identify the key model input parameters that influence bulk properties. Furthermore, we demonstrate how bulk properties can be leveraged in high-fidelity image-based simulations, where imperfections in tow geometry and voids captured during X-ray computed tomography imaging are explicitly represented within the simulation. Bulk properties of interest include moduli, Poisson’s ratios, hygroscopic swelling, diffusivity, and moisture uptake, which are key parameters for characterizing FRC performance within marine environments. Modeling predictions agreed well with experimental data, except for estimating swelling coefficients, likely due to crack accumulation as a function of moisture uptake. The mesoscale modeling workflow ultimately highlights a versatile framework for understanding the influence of material and geometric properties, which can be leveraged to rapidly assess new FRC-based components.

computational mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Programmatic Advantages of Linear Equivalent Seismic Models

Underground explosions nonlinearly deform the surrounding earth material and can interact with the free surface to produce spall. However, at typical seismological observation distances the seismic wavefield can be accurately modeled using linear approximations. Although nonlinear algorithms can accurately simulate very near field ground motions, they are computationally expensive and potentially unnecessary for far field wave simulations. Conversely, linearized seismic wave propagation codes are orders of magnitude faster computationally and can accurately simulate the wavefield out to typical observational distances. Thus, devising a means of approximating a nonlinear source in terms of a linear equivalent source would be advantageous both for scenario modeling and for interpretation of seismic source models that are based on linear, far-field approximations. This allows fast linear seismic modeling that still incorporates many features of the nonlinear source mechanics built into the simulation results so that one can have many of the advantages of both types of simulations without the computational cost of the nonlinear computation. In this report we first show the computational advantage of using linear equivalent models, and then discuss how the near-source (within the nonlinear wavefield regime) environment affects linear source equivalents and how well we can fit seismic wavefields derived from nonlinear sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inverse model based error detection in beamline optics

Optics tuning in transfer lines and LINACs can be challenging due to the fact that multiple combinations of machine settings can lead to the same diagnostic output. Moreover, the lack of a periodic solution can limit the ability to infer optics in the same way as rings from BPM signals. Model based approaches are often used to assist with the optics tuning in combination with optimization or parameter estimation. Here we have developed a novel approach using machine learning inverse models trained on a known configuration to detect variations in quadrupole settings without explicitly including them in the model. This paper shows a comparison of neural network models and linear models on both a simulation based study and experimental studies conducted at the AGS to RHIC transfer line at Brookhaven National Lab.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

DQ Admittance Extraction for Inverter-Based Resources

The power grid industry is pushing for electromagnetic transient (EMT)-based studies for generation interconnection and planning process due to high penetrations of inverter-based resource (IBRs). Vendor-specific and site-specific black-box IBR models are preferred in those simulation studies. For small-signal analysis, measurement-based admittance models are necessary. In this paper, we demonstrate the extraction of frequency-domain dq frame IBR models. These linear models are specific to operating conditions. We demonstrate two extraction methods: frequency scan and a step response-based method. The latter relies on converting time-domain responses to Laplace-domain expressions via eigensystem realization analysis (ERA). Both can lead to dq admittance representation and the latter is time saving.

admittance model↗
DOE OSTI2023

DQ Admittance Extraction for Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

The power grid industry is pushing for electro-magnetic transient (EMT)-based studies for generation interconnection and planning process due to high penetrations of inverter-based resource (IBRs). Vendor-specific and site-specific black-box IBR models are preferred in those simulation studies. For small-signal analysis, measurement-based admittance models are necessary. In this paper, we demonstrate the extraction of frequency-domain dq frame IBR models. These linear models are specific to operating conditions. We demonstrate two extraction methods: frequency scan and a step response-based method. The latter relies on converting time-domain responses to Laplace-domain expressions via eigensystem realization analysis (ERA). Both can lead to dq admittance representation and the latter is time saving.

admittance model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of linear nanopores in a-SiO 2 tuning pore surface structure

Here, new strategies are presented for the generation of models for linear nanopores in amorphous silica (a-SiO 2 ) with surface structure tuned to match experimental observations. Specifically, the models successfully target not only the overall density of surface silanol groups, but also the proportion of geminal versus mono silanols for which additional experimental NMR data is reported. The latter quantity has not been appropriately described in previous modeling, and in fact has typically not been considered. Strategies include “pore drilling” of bulk a-SiO 2 , and “cylindrical resist” methodology forming a-SiO 2 around a cylindrical exclusion region, followed by dehydroxylation and hydroxylation processes, respectively. However, these latter processes must be judiciously tailored in order to tune the proportion of geminals, in addition to the overall silanol density, to achieve experimental values. Such tailoring has not been incorporated into previous modeling. Another approach considered tunes surface structure of pores obtained by “pore drilling” through mild annealing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of non-adiabatic effects on linear absorption spectra in the condensed phase: Methylene blue

Modeling linear absorption spectra of solvated chromophores is highly challenging as contributions are present both from coupling of the electronic states to nuclear vibrations and from solute–solvent interactions. In systems where excited states intersect in the Condon region, significant non-adiabatic contributions to absorption line shapes can also be observed. Here, we introduce a robust approach to model linear absorption spectra accounting for both environmental and non-adiabatic effects from first principles. This model parameterizes a linear vibronic coupling (LVC) Hamiltonian directly from energy gap fluctuations calculated along molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories of the chromophore in solution, accounting for both anharmonicity in the potential and direct solute–solvent interactions. The resulting system dynamics described by the LVC Hamiltonian are solved exactly using the thermalized time-evolving density operator with orthogonal polynomials algorithm (T-TEDOPA). The approach is applied to the linear absorption spectrum of methylene blue in water. We show that the strong shoulder in the experimental spectrum is caused by vibrationally driven population transfer between the bright S1 and the dark S2 states. The treatment of the solvent environment is one of many factors that strongly influence the population transfer and line shape; accurate modeling can only be achieved through the use of explicit quantum mechanical solvation. The efficiency of T-TEDOPA, combined with LVC Hamiltonian parameterizations from MD, leads to an attractive method for describing a large variety of systems in complex environments from first principles.

Dunnett, Angus J. (ORCID:0000000285797826)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing Calibration Algorithms for the Rapid Characterization of Pretreated Corn Stover Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Rapid characterization of biomass composition is a key enabling technology for biorefineries—the ability to measure the chemical composition of biomass materials entering the biorefinery as well as the composition of key process intermediate streams would allow real-time process control and the development of robust models to predict process performance. The utility of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for rapid characterization requires multivariate algorithms for building calibration models. The most prevalent algorithm used for building calibration models using NIR spectra is the linear modeling algorithm Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS). Nonlinear regression algorithms (which are typically more computationally intensive than linear modeling approaches) have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to solve a wide variety of classification and regression problems and the dramatic increase in available computational resources. In this work, we demonstrate that a calibration model can predict the composition of corn stover process intermediate samples pretreated with three different treatments—hot water (HW), dilute acid (DA), and deacetylation followed by dilute acid (DDA). We quantitatively compare three different algorithms for building prediction models based on near-infrared spectroscopy—partial least squares (PLS), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We demonstrate the utility of improving model performance by accounting for instrument performance variability using repeated measurements of standard materials (e.g., the “repeatability file” strategy) and investigate its performance with nonlinear regression techniques, and we discuss methods for quantifying the uncertainties of specific predictions among the three methods.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Space–Time Reduced Order Model for Linear Dynamical Systems in Python Using Less than 120 Lines of Code

A classical reduced order model (ROM) for dynamical problems typically involves only the spatial reduction of a given problem. Recently, a novel space–time ROM for linear dynamical problems has been developed [Choi et al., Space–tume reduced order model for large-scale linear dynamical systems with application to Boltzmann transport problems, Journal of Computational Physics, 2020], which further reduces the problem size by introducing a temporal reduction in addition to a spatial reduction without much loss in accuracy. The authors show an order of a thousand speed-up with a relative error of less than 10−5 for a large-scale Boltzmann transport problem. In this work, we present for the first time the derivation of the space–time least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection for linear dynamical systems and its corresponding block structures. Utilizing these block structures, we demonstrate the ease of construction of the space–time ROM method with two model problems: 2D diffusion and 2D convection diffusion, with and without a linear source term. For each problem, we demonstrate the entire process of generating the full order model (FOM) data, constructing the space–time ROM, and predicting the reduced-order solutions, all in less than 120 lines of Python code. We compare our LSPG method with the traditional Galerkin method and show that the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10−3) to O(10−4) relative errors for these problems. Depending on parameter–separability, online speed-ups may or may not be achieved. For the FOMs with parameter–separability, the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10) online speed-ups. Finally, we present an error analysis for the space–time LSPG projection and derive an error bound, which shows an improvement compared to traditional spatial Galerkin ROM methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A data-driven approach to real-time vertical position estimation for NSTX-U vertical stability control

In this paper, a database of 77 996 plasma equilibrium reconstructions from 727 discharges during the initial operation of the NSTX-U spherical tokamak is analyzed to develop a statistically robust model of the plasma vertical position for real-time control. A variety of regression models are developed and tested, ranging in complexity from linear models to deep neural networks, and including input signals ranging from the four pairs of flux loops used historically on NSTX-U up to the full set of 389 real-time signals available to the plasma control system. A linear model based on 140 real-time magnetics signals is found to offer excellent accuracy, with a coefficient of determination R 2 = 0.906. The robustness of this model to limited training data, new operating scenarios, and signal errors is tested, and a procedure is demonstrated to tune the model parameters to optimize its robustness. A time-dependent plasma equilibrium solver, TokaMaker, is used to simulate vertical stability control in NSTX-U, demonstrating that it should be possible to iteratively tune the parameters of a linear vertical position model to stabilize both positive and negative triangularity plasmas in future experiments.

magnetic diagnostics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three-Stage Adjusted Regression Forecasting for Software Defect Prediction

In this paper, a three-stage adjusted regression forecasting model is proposed to forecast the local regression model [6]. This is a growth curve approximation model that predicts the parameters for a future linear model based on a sliding window of previous linear models. The three stages of the model are as follows: • Initial fit: train regression models on a sliding window of the date and record model coefficients. • Prediction: fit new regression models to the coefficient lists and predict the value of the next coefficient. • Error correction: correct coefficient prediction error using the residual of the last point of the coefficient list and moving average. The resulting model from the multi-stage process is a forecast of the local regression model that represents the future window of data and is referred to as the predicted line. Results suggest the three-stage model demonstrates better prediction capability compared to existing solutions.

Pritchard, Shadow↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tri-Level Linear Programming Model for Automatic Load Shedding Using Spectral Clustering

Traditional load shedding schemes can be inadequate in grids with high renewable penetration, leading to unstable events and unnecessary grid islanding. Although for both manual and automatic operating modes load shedding areas have been predefined by grid operators, they have remained fixed, and may be sub-optimal due to dynamic operating conditions. In this work, a distributed tri-level linear programming model for automatic load shedding to avoid system islanding is presented. Preventing islanding is preferred because it reduces the need for additional load shedding besides the disconnection of transmission lines between islands. This is crucial as maintaining the local generation-demand balance is necessary to preserve frequency stability. Furthermore, uneven distribution of generation resources among islands can lead to increased load shedding, causing economic and reliability challenges. This issue is further compounded in modern power systems heavily dependent on non-dispatchable resources like wind and solar. The upper-level model uses complex power flow measurements to determine the system areas to shed load depending on actual operating conditions using a spectral clustering approach. The mid-level model estimates the area system state, while the lower-level model determines the locations and load values to be shed. The solution is practical and promising for real-world applications.

Baquedano-Aguilar, Mario D.↗