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DOE OSTI2023

Immunomodulation by cannabidiol in bovine primary ruminal epithelial cells

Ruminant livestock experience a number of challenges, including high concentrate diets, weaning and transport, which can increase their risk of disorders such as ruminal acidosis, and the associated inflammation of the ruminal epithelium. Cannabidiol (CBD), a phytochemical from hemp (Cannabis sativa), is a promising target as a therapy for gastrointestinal inflammation, and may be extremely valuable as either a treatment or prophylactic. However, the effects of CBD in the the ruminant gastrointestinal tract have not been explored, in part due to the restrictions on feeding hemp to livestock. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the immunomodulatory properties of CBD using a model of inflammation in primary ruminal epithelial cells (REC). In addition, CBD dose was evaluated for possible cytotoxic effects. Negative effects on cell viability were not observed when REC were exposed to 10 μM CBD. However, when the dose was increased to 50 μM for 24 h, there was a significant cytotoxic effect. When 10 μM CBD was added to culture media as treatment for inflammation induced with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), expression of genes encoding for pro-inflammatory cytokine IL1B was less compared to LPS exposure alone, and CBD resulted in a down-regulation of IL6. As a pre-treatment, prior to LPS exposure, REC had decreased expression of IL6 and CXCL10 while CBD was present in the media, but not when it was removed prior to addition of LPS. Results suggest that CBD may reduce cytokine transcription both during LPS-induced inflammation and when used preventatively, although these effects were dependent on its continued presence in the culture media. Overall, these experiments provide evidence of an immunomodulatory effect by CBD during a pro-inflammatory response in primary REC in culture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Agricultural Impacts on Nitrogen Cycling: Climate and Air Pollution (Final Technical Report)

We have successfully added a parameterization of ammonia emissions from synthetic fertilizer and manure from agriculture to Earth System Models. We have evaluated how emissions change in the future and the processes driving these changes. We have examined the impact of agricultural ammonia emissions on present-day air quality and have evaluated the impact of resolving the emissions with high temporal resolution. We have also examined the impact of how Earth System Models treat the cycling of emissions in soils. Our code, the Flows of Agricultural Nitrogen – version 2 – model (FANv2) has been run in both the CLM framework and the ELM framework. To my knowledge the code has not yet been fully implemented into ELM. Volatilization of ammonia (NH3) from fertilizers and livestock wastes forms a significant pathway of nitrogen losses in agricultural ecosystems and constitutes the largest source of atmospheric emissions of NH3. We have provided a major update to the process model FAN (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen), which evaluates NH3 emissions interactively within an Earth system model; in this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used. The updated version (FANv2) includes a more detailed treatment of both physical and agricultural processes, which allows the model to differentiate between the volatilization losses from animal housings, manure storage, grazed pastures, and the application of manure and different types of mineral fertilizers. The modeled ammonia emissions are first evaluated at a local scale against experimental data for various types of fertilizers and manure, and they are subsequently run globally to evaluate NH3 emissions for 2010–2015 based on gridded datasets of fertilizer use and livestock populations. Comparison of regional emissions shows that FANv2 agrees with previous inventories for North America and Europe and is within the range of previous inventories for China. However, due to higher NH3 emissions in Africa, India, and Latin America, the global emissions simulated by FANv2(48 Tg N) are 30 %–40 % higher than in the existing inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

DOE/SNL/GCBS: Training Para-Veterinarians in Afghanistan

Women make essential contributions to agricultural sectors worldwide through livestock rearing, production of animal-based products, and promotion of animal health. Approximately 752 million of the world's poor have livestock for food, income, work, and/or societal status, and women comprise two-thirds of this population. The Food and Agriculture Organization for the United Nations, the World Bank, the United States Agency for International Development, and other international organizations widely recognize the value of women in agriculture.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Alpha Spectrometry Results for Groundwater Samples Collected in Northern Iraq and a Summary of the Environmental Setting of the Adaya Burial Site

The Radiation Protection Center (RPC) of the Iraqi Ministry of Environment continues to evaluate the potential health impacts associated with the Adaya Burial Site, which is located 33 kilometers (20.5 miles) southwest of Mosul. This report documents the radiological analyses of 16 groundwater samples collected from wells located in the vicinity of the Adaya Burial Site and at other sites in northern Iraq. The Adaya Burial Site is a high-risk dump site because a large volume of radioactive material and contaminated soil is located on an unsecure hillside above the village of Tall ar Ragrag. The uranium activities for the 16 water samples in northern Iraq are considered to be naturally occurring and do not indicate artificial (man-made) contamination. With one exception, the alpha spectrometry results for the 16 wells that were sampled in 2019 indicate that the water quality concerning the three uranium isotopes (Uranium-233/234, Uranium-235/236, and Uranium-238) was acceptable for potable purposes (drinking and cooking). However, Well 7 in Mosul had a Uranium-233/234 activity concentration that slightly exceeded the World Health Organization guidance level. Eight of the 16 wells are located in the villages of Tall ar Ragrag and Adaya and had naturally occurring uranium concentrations. Wells in the villages of Tall ar Ragrag and Adaya are located near the Adaya Burial Site and should be sampled on an annual schedule. The list of groundwater analytes should include metals, total uranium, isotopic uranium, gross alpha/beta, gamma spectroscopy, organic compounds, and standard water quality parameters. Our current understanding of the hydrogeologic setting in the vicinity of the Adaya Burial Site is solely based on villager's domestic wells, topographic maps, and satellite imagery. To better understand the hydrogeologic setting, a Groundwater Monitoring Program needs to be developed and should include the installation of twelve groundwater monitoring wells in the vicinity of Tall ar Ragrag and the Adaya Burial Site. Characterization of the limestone aquifer and overlying alluvium is needed. RPC should continue to support health assessments for the villagers in Tall ar Ragrag and Adaya. Collecting samples for surface water (storm water), airborne dust, vegetation, and washway sediment should be conducted on a routine basis. Human access to the Adaya Burial Site needs to be strictly limited. Livestock access on or near the burial site needs to be eliminated. The surface-water exposure pathway is likely a greater threat than the groundwater exposure pathway. Installation of a surface-water diversion or collection system is recommended in order to reduce the potential for humans and livestock to come in contact with contaminated water and sediment. To reduce exposure to villagers, groundwater treatment should be considered if elevated uranium or other contaminants are detected in drinking water. Installing water-treatment systems would likely be quicker to accomplish than remediation and excavation of the Adaya Burial Site. The known potential for human exposure to uranium and metals (such as arsenic, chromium, selenium, and strontium) at the Adaya Burial Site is serious. Additional characterization , mitigation, and remediation efforts should be given a high priority.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Primer: Physical Factors of Agricultural Production & Climate Change

This white paper is a primer on physical factors that influence agricultural production and associated touchpoints to climate change. Agricultural production (which includes both crop and livestock production) is critical for food security and supports other economic products, such as textiles and generation of fuels for energy. Various physical factors influence agricultural production, including the crop types being cultivated and livestock being raised; land area and quality; water access and control; fertilizers, pesticides, and antibiotics; labor; and infrastructure associated with processing, storage, and transportation. These factors are impacted by climate change in both chronic and acute ways, from changing temperatures and precipitation patterns to increased prevalence of extreme events and diseases. We draw on examples from around the world to show the complex ways that agricultural production factors and climate interact with local capacities to influence regions around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An improved mechanistic model for ammonia volatilization in Earth system models: Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen version 2 (FANv2)

Abstract. Volatilization of ammonia (NH 3 ) from fertilizers and livestock wastes forms a significant pathway of nitrogen losses in agricultural ecosystems and constitutes the largest source of atmospheric emissions of NH 3 . This paper describes a major update to the process model FAN (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen), which evaluates NH 3 emissions interactively within an Earth system model; in this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used. The updated version (FANv2) includes a more detailed treatment of both physical and agricultural processes, which allows the model to differentiate between the volatilization losses from animal housings, manure storage, grazed pastures, and the application of manure and different types of mineral fertilizers. The modeled ammonia emissions are first evaluated at a local scale against experimental data for various types of fertilizers and manure, and they are subsequently run globally to evaluate NH3 emissions for 2010–2015 based on gridded datasets of fertilizer use and livestock populations. Comparison of regional emissions shows that FANv2 agrees with previous inventories for North America and Europe and is within the range of previous inventories for China. However, due to higher NH 3 emissions in Africa, India, and Latin America, the global emissions simulated by FANv2 (48 Tg N) are 30 %–40 % higher than in the existing inventories.

Vira, Julius↗

DOE OSTI2023

HarDWR - Cumulative Water Rights Curves

For a detailed description of the database of which this record is only one part, please see the HarDWR meta-record. This product is the dataset used as input to the WBM model (Grogan et al., in review; Grogan et al. 2022), and is the result of the step creating cumulative water rights curves described in Lisk et al. (submission pending). This database contains 1,744 individual .csv files, two for each Water Management Area (WMA; see here) in the 11-state region. File naming convention: WMA_[###]_[X]W.csv, where [###] is the unique identifier for each WMA, and [X] is either S for surface water rights, or G for groundwater rights. Column headers in each file: Year: the priority date year CUML: the total cumulative water rights allocated up to this priority date year (ft3s-1) Irrigation: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Irrigation category up to this priority date year (%) Domestic: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Domestic category up to this priority date year (%) Livestock: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Livestock category up to this priority date year (%) Fish: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Fish category up to this priority date year (%) Industrial: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Industrial category up to this priority date year (%) Environmental: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Environmental category up to this priority date year (%) Other: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Other category up to this priority date year (%) In addition to the database files, there is a companion .csv file, called stateWMAs_ID.csv. The main purpose of this file is to provide the means of translating between the ### unique identifier and the various other id of the WMA the file is attached to. This translation file has five columns, which are: basinNum: The official state given alpha-numeric identifier of the WMA basinName: the state provided English name of the area, where applicable state: the state name uniID: a unique identifier we created by concatenating the state name, and underscore, and the state numerical ID ID: a unique numeric identifier we created as a requirement for the files to be used within WBM (Grogan et al., in review)

Economics↗

DOE OSTI2024

HarDWR - Cumulative Water Rights Curves

Economics↗

DOE OSTI2020

HarDWR - Cumulative Water Rights Curves

A dataset within the Harmonized Database of Western U.S. Water Rights (HarDWR). For a detailed description of the database, please see the meta-record v2.0. Changelog v2.0 - Recalculated based on Harmonized Water Rights Records v2.0 sourced from WestDAAT - Added "Unspecified" was a water source category, and files associated with this category v1.01 - Updated the names of each file with an ID number less than 3 digits to include leading 0s v1.0 - Initial public release Description This product an updated version of the database used as input to the WBM model (Grogan et al. in review; Grogan et al. 2022), and is the result of the step creating cumulative water rights curves described in Lisk et al. (2024). This database contains 2,667 individual .csv files, three for each Water Management Area (WMA) in the 11-state region. File Naming WMA_[###]_[X]W.csv, where [###] is the unique identifier for each WMA, and [X] is either "S" for surface water rights, "G" for groundwater rights, or "U" for unspecified. Column headers in each file: Year: the priority date year CUML: the total cumulative water rights allocated up to this priority date year (ft3s-1) Irrigation: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Irrigation category up to this priority date year (%) Domestic: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Domestic category up to this priority date year (%) Livestock: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Livestock category up to this priority date year (%) Fish: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Fish category up to this priority date year (%) Industrial: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Industrial category up to this priority date year (%) Environmental: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Environmental category up to this priority date year (%) Other: The percent of cumulative water rights allocated to the Other category up to this priority date year (%) In addition to the database files, there is a companion .csv file, called stateWMAs_ID.csv. The main purpose of this file is to provide the means of translating between the [###] unique identifier and the various other id of the WMA the file is attached to. This translation file has five columns, which are: basinNum: The official state given alpha-numeric identifier of the WMA basinName: the state provided English name of the area, where applicable state: the state name uniID: a unique identifier we created by concatenating the state name, and underscore, and the state numerical ID ID: a unique numeric identifier we created as a requirement for the files to be used within WBM (Grogan et al. in review) For those whom may be interested in exploring our code more in depth, we are also making available an internal data file for convenience. The file is in .RData format and contains everything described above as well as some minor additional objects used within the code calculating the cumulative curves. For completeness, here is a detailed description of the various objects which can be found within the .RData file: states: A character vector containing the state names for those states in the study region. More importantly, the index of the state name is also the index in which that state's data can be found in the various following list objects. For example, if California is the second index in this object, the data for California will also be in the second index for each accompanying list. wmasRightsPersGrd: A list of nested lists of data frames. Each state has one entry in the top level list and consist of a list with one data frame per WMA. The data frames in this object are the same as the above described .csv files, specifically for groundwater. wmasRightsPersSur: A list of nested lists of data frames. Each state has one entry in the top level list and consist of a list with one data frame per WMA. The data frames in this object are the same as the above described .csv files, specifically for surface water. wmasRightsPersUnsp: A list of nested lists of data frames. Each state has one entry in the top level list and consist of a list with one data frame per WMA. The data frames in this object are the same as the above described .csv files, specifically for water from an unspecified source. wmasRightsTotsGrd: A list of nested lists of data frames. Each state has one entry in the top level list and consist of a list with one data frame per WMA. The values in the data frames of this object would be the equivalent to multiplying the CUML column by the sector percentage columns to create the sector total ft3s-1, specifically for groundwater. This object is provided for convenience to check out original total values, if desired. wmasRightsTotsSur: A list of nested lists of data frames. Each state has one entry in the top level list and consist of a list with one data frame per WMA. The values in the data frames of this object would be the equivalent to multiplying the CUML column by the sector percentage columns to create the sector total ft3s-1, specifically for surface water. This object is provided for convenience to check out original total values, if desired. wmasRightsTotsUnsp: A list of nested lists of data frames. Each state has one entry in the top level list and consist of a list with one data frame per WMA. The values in the data frames of this object would be the equivalent to multiplying the CUML column by the sector percentage columns to create the sector total ft3s-1, specifically for water from an unspecified source. This object is provided for convenience to check out original total values, if desired. wmaIDByState: A list of data frames which contain the by state allocation by WMA matrix. There is a matrix for each state in a different data frame within the object.

Economics↗

DOE OSTI2021

PastoralScape: An Environment-Driven Model of Vaccination Decision Making Within Pastoralist Groups in East Africa

Economic and cultural resilience among pastoralists in East Africa is threatened by the interconnected forces of climate change, contagious diseases spread and evolving national and international trade. A key factor in the resilience of livestock that communities depend on is human decision making regarding vaccination against prevalent diseases such as Rift Valley fever and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia. This paper describes an agent-based model that couples models of disease propagation, animal health, human decision making, and external GIS data sources capturing measures of foraging condition. We describe the design of the sub-models, their coupling, and demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to parameters that relate to controllable factors such as government and NGO information sources that can influence human decision making patterns. This model is intended to form the basis upon which richer economic and human factor models can be built.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Irrigation, carbon amelioration, nitrogen, and stover removal effects on continuous corn

Corn (Zea mays L.) residue or stover is harvested as supplemental feed for livestock and is a potential feedstock for cellulosic biofuels. Limited information is available on corn stover removal effects on grain yield under different irrigation rates, nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates, and practices to maintain soil carbon (C) and minimize soil erosion. Here, we evaluated potential interactions between irrigation rate (full or limited), C amelioration practices (cover crop, surface-applied manure, or no amelioration practice), fertilizer N management (125 or 200 kg N ha –1 ), and stover removal (residue removal or no residue removal), on no-till continuous corn grain yield located on a silt loam soil in south-central Nebraska (2011–2018). Stover removal increased (P = .0017) grain yield by 1.02 Mg ha –1 and grain N uptake compared with no stover removal. Manure increased corn grain yield by 899 kg ha –1 compared to either the control or cover crop with stover removal while C amelioration practices did not affect grain yield under stover retention. Grain N concentration was higher (P < .0001) with stover removal (13.2 g kg –1 ) than residue retained (12.7 g kg –1 ). Partial factor productivity (grain yield/N rate) was highest for manure treatments with residue removal. The farmgate N balance (N applied – N removed) from stover removal was negative, yet grain yield was not affected after eight growing seasons. Grain yield increased with stover removal and manure application resulting in a cost-effective C amelioration practice whereas incorporating a winter cover crop resulted in similar grain yield as the control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal grassland productivity forecast for the U.S. Great Plains using Grass–Cast

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season above ground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal amounts of grass biomass (lbs/ac). Grass-Cast also provides a view of rangeland productivity in the broader region, to assist in larger scale decision-making—such as where forage resources for grazing might be more plentiful if a rancher’s own region is at risk of drought. Grass-Cast is updated approximately every two weeks from April through July. Each Grass-Cast forecast provides three scenarios of ANPP for the upcoming growing season based on different precipitation outlooks. Near real-time 8-d NDVI can be used to supplement Grass-Cast in predicting cumulative growing season NDVI and ANPP starting in mid-April for the Southern Great Plains and mid-May to early June for the Central and Northern Great Plains. Here, we present the scientific basis and methods for Grass-Cast along with the county-level production forecasts from 2017 and 2018 for ten states in the U.S. Great Plains. The correlation between early growing season forecasts and the end-of growing season ANPP estimate is >50% by late May or early June. In a retrospective evaluation, we compared Grass-Cast end-of-growing season ANPP results to an independent dataset and found that the two agreed 69% of the time over a 20-yr period. Although some predictive tools exist for forecasting upcoming growing season conditions, none predict actual productivity for the entire Great Plains. The Grass-Cast system could be adapted to predict grassland ANPP outside of the Great Plains or to predict perennial biofuel grass production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Changes in wild pig ( Sus scrofa ) relative abundance, crop damage, and environmental impacts in response to control efforts

BACKGROUND: As the population and range of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) continue to grow across North America, there has been an increase in environmental and economic damages caused by this invasive species, and control efforts to reduce damages have increased concomitantly. Despite the expanding impacts and costs associated with population control of wild pigs, the extent to which wild pig control reduces populations and diminishes environmental and agricultural damages are rarely quantified. The goal of this study is to quantify changes in wild pig relative abundance and subsequent changes in damages caused by invasive wild pigs in response to control. RESULTS: Using a combination of wild pig population surveys, agricultural damage assessments, and environmental rooting surveys across 19 mixed forest-agricultural properties in South Carolina, USA, we quantified changes in wild pig relative abundance and associated damages over a 3-year period following implementation of a professional control program. Following implementation of control efforts, both the number of wild pig detections and estimated abundance decreased markedly. Within 24 months relative abundance was reduced by an average of ~70%, which resulted in a corresponding decline in environmental rooting damage by ~99%. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that sustained wild pig control efforts can substantially reduce wild pig relative abundance, which in turn resulted in a reduction in environmental rooting damage by wild pigs. Ultimately this study will help fill critical knowledge gaps regarding the efficacy of wild pig control programs and the effort needed to reduce impacts to native ecosystems, livestock, and crops. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensification differentially affects the delivery of multiple ecosystem services in subtropical and temperate grasslands

Intensification, the process of intensifying land management to enhance agricultural goods, results in “intensive” pastures that are planted with productive grasses and fertilized. These intensive pastures provide essential ecosystem services, including forage production for livestock. Understanding the synergies and tradeoffs of pasture intensification on the delivery of services across climatic regions is crucial to shape policies and incentives for better management of natural resources. Here, we investigated how grassland intensification affects key components of provisioning (forage productivity and quality), supporting (plant diversity) and regulating services (CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes) by comparing these services between intensive versus extensive pastures in subtropical and temperate pastures in the USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network sites in Florida and Oklahoma, USA over multiple years. Our results suggest that grassland intensification led to a decrease in measured supporting and regulating services, but increased forage productivity in temperate pastures and forage digestibility in subtropical pastures. Intensification decreased the net CO 2 sink of subtropical pastures while it did not affect the sink capacity of temperate pastures; and it also increased environmental CH 4 emissions from subtropical pastures and reduced CH 4 uptake in temperate pastures. Intensification enhanced the global warming potential associated with C fluxes of pastures in both ecoregions. Our study demonstrates that comparisons of agroecosystems in contrasting ecoregions can reveal important drivers of ecosystem services and general or region-specific opportunities and solutions to maintaining agricultural production and reducing environmental footprints. Further LTAR network-scale comparisons of multiple ecosystem services across croplands and grazinglands intensively vs extensively managed are warranted to inform the sustainable intensification of agriculture within US and beyond. Our results highlight that achieving both food security and environmental stewardship will involve the conservation of less intensively managed pastures while adopting sustainable strategies in intensively managed pastures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Life cycle analysis of dedicated energy crops for fuel production in the United States

Dedicated energy crops are promising feedstocks to make biofuels including jet fuels. This study applies life cycle analysis (LCA) to estimate direct well-to-wake (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (g CO 2 e/MJ) for jet fuel derived from five energy crops-biomass sorghum, miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar, and willow-via Fischer-Tropsch-to-Jet (FTJ) and Ethanol-to-Jet (ETJ) pathways. The WTW boundary includes direct emissions from biomass production, fuel production, and fuel combustion. The R&D GREET model is expanded to conduct the LCA, using national average biomass yields and farming inputs from the 2023 Billion-Ton Study. In addition, this study estimates emissions from market-mediated effects, including induced land-use change, induced other crop (non-feedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes using global economic and emissions factor models. On a per-dry U.S. ton basis, cultivation and harvest emissions are lowest for willow (51,565 g CO 2 e) and highest for biomass sorghum (104,488 g CO 2 e). Per-acre results show similarly high emissions for sorghum and lowest values for poplar and willow. Direct WTW emissions are substantially lower for FTJ (biomass sorghum: 5.5; miscanthus: 10.3; switchgrass: 11.7; poplar: 11.9; and willow: 8.7 g CO 2 e/MJ) than ETJ (33.2; 33.8; 34.8; 36.2; and 31.7 g CO 2 e/MJ, respectively). When market-mediated emissions are included, miscanthus exhibits the lowest total emissions across energy crop pathways. Although results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, they indicate that high-yielding perennial and woody crops, particularly when planted on marginal land, could significantly reduce WTW emissions for bio-jet fuels by combining low direct emissions with soil carbon gains and favorable market-mediated effects.

Billion-Ton Study↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using dorsal surface for individual identification of dairy calves through 3D deep learning algorithms

Advances in machine learning techniques have allowed the development of computer vision systems (CVS) that can accurately predict several phenotypes of interest for livestock operations. In this context, 3D images taken from a top-down view are particularly useful for estimating body condition score, growth development, and body biometrics in cattle. Frequently, such CVS rely on identification (ID) systems, such as electronic tags, as a way to match animal ID and the predicted phenotype. However, the same 3D images used to predict body weight and other animal biometrics could be adopted for animal recognition as well. Such alternative would optimize CVS to recognize animal ID and monitor growth development simultaneously while leveraging the same hardware infrastructure. Furthermore, this strategy could be used to recognize animals with similar color patterns. Nonetheless, growing animals are continuously changing body shape, which could limit its use as an invariant feature for pattern recognition. Thus, the objectives of this study were: (1) to compare algorithms for different 3D object representations to identify individual animals; and (2) to evaluate how short-term changes in body shape due to animal growth affect the predictive performance of these algorithms. For objective 1, the algorithms were trained (n = 4,558) and tested (n = 1,139) using images from 38 Holstein calves. For objective 2, we designed three different experiments using images (n = 2,347) from five Holstein calves taken over six weeks during their growing period, always training and testing on different weeks. Each experiment evaluated how changing a different parameter of the image capturing procedure affected the predictive ability of the trained algorithms. In the first experiment, we varied the total number of images per animal in the training set; in the second experiment, we varied the number of weeks while keeping a fixed number of images in the training set; and in the third experiment, we skipped weeks between images in the training and test sets. The F 1 score for objective (1) was up to 0.804 when testing with the last frames of each video, and up to 0.959 when using random frames for testing. For objective (2), the F 1 score was up to 0.947 for the first experiment when using 130 images per animal; up to 0.979 for the second experiment when using all five weeks; and up to 0.917 when not skipping weeks between training and testing. In conclusion, these results show that deep learning algorithms can be used to identify individual animals through their dorsal area 3D surfaces, and, from our experiments using calves in their growing period, that they are robust enough to account for changes in body shape and size, making them a promising tool for animal recognition during growth.

3D neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2020

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of abatement potentials and costs of air pollution emissions in China

Understanding the air pollution emission abatement potential and associated control cost is a prerequisite to design cost ef?cient control policies. In this study, a linear programming algorithm model, International Control Cost Estimate Tool, was updated with cost data for applications of 56 types of end-of-pipe technologies and ?ve types of renewable energy in 10 major sectors namely power generation, industry combustion, cement pro-duction, iron and steel production, other industry processes, domestic combustion, transportation, solvent use, livestock rearing, and fertilizer use. The updated model was implemented to estimate the abatement potential and marginal cost of multiple pollutants in China. The total maximum abatement potentials of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), primary particulate matter (PM2.5), non-volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and ammonia (NH3) in China were estimated to be 19.2, 20.8, 9.1, 17.2 and 8.6 Mt, respectively, which accounted for 89.7%, 89.9%, 94.6%, 74.0%, and 80.2% of their total emissions in 2014, respectively. The associated control cost of such reductions was estimated as 92.5, 469.7, 75.7, 449.0, and 361.8 billion CNY in SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5, NMVOCs and NH3, respectively. Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, and Guangdong provinces exhibited large abatement potentials for all pollutants. Provincial disparity analysis shows that high GDP regions tend to have higher reduction potential and total abatement costs. End-of-pipe technologies tended be a cost-ef?cient way to control pollution in industries processes (i.e., cement plants, iron and steel plants, lime production, building ceramic production, glass and brick production), whereas such technologies were less cost- effective in fossil fuel-related sectors (i.e., power plants, industry combustion, domestic combustion, and transportation) compared with renewable energy. The abatement potentials and marginal abatement cost curves developed in this study can further be used as a crucial component in an integrated model to design optimized cost-ef?cient control policies.

Zhang, Fenfen↗