Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “local significance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Search for dark matter produced in association with one or two top quarks in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{\text{s}}$ = 13 TeV

A search is performed for dark matter (DM) produced in association with a single top quark or a pair of top quarks using the data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to 138 fb −1 of integrated luminosity. An excess of events with a large imbalance of transverse momentum is searched for across 0, 1 and 2 lepton final states. Novel multivariate techniques are used to take advantage of the differences in kinematic properties between the two DM production mechanisms. No significant deviations with respect to the standard model predictions are observed. The results are interpreted considering a simplified model in which the mediator is either a scalar or pseudoscalar particle and couples to top quarks and to DM fermions. Axion-like particles that are coupled to top quarks and DM fermions are also considered. Expected exclusion limits of 410 and 380 GeV for scalar and pseudoscalar mediator masses, respectively, are set at the 95% confidence level. A DM particle mass of 1 GeV is assumed, with mediator couplings to fermions and DM particles set to unity. A small signal-like excess is observed in data, with the largest local significance observed to be 1.9 standard deviations for the 150 GeV pseudoscalar mediator hypothesis. Because of this excess, mediator masses are only excluded below 310 (320) GeV for the scalar (pseudoscalar) mediator. The results are also translated into model-independent 95% confidence level upper limits on the visible cross section of DM production in association with top quarks, ranging from 1 pb to 0.02 pb.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Multi-disciplinary optimization of aeroservoelastic systems

The purpose of the research project was to continue the development of new methods for efficient aeroservoelastic analysis and optimization. The main targets were as follows: to complete the development of analytical tools for the investigation of flutter with large stiffness changes; to continue the work on efficient continuous gust response and sensitivity derivatives; and to advance the techniques of calculating dynamic loads with control and unsteady aerodynamic effects. An efficient and highly accurate mathematical model for time-domain analysis of flutter during which large structural changes occur was developed in cooperation with Carol D. Wieseman of NASA LaRC. The model was based on the second-year work 'Modal Coordinates for Aeroelastic Analysis with Large Local Structural Variations'. The work on continuous gust response was completed. An abstract of the paper 'Continuous Gust Response and Sensitivity Derivatives Using State-Space Models' was submitted for presentation in the 33rd Israel Annual Conference on Aviation and Astronautics, Feb. 1993. The abstract is given in Appendix A. The work extends the optimization model to deal with continuous gust objectives in a way that facilitates their inclusion in the efficient multi-disciplinary optimization scheme. Currently under development is a work designed to extend the analysis and optimization capabilities to loads and stress considerations. The work is on aircraft dynamic loads in response to impulsive and non-impulsive excitation. The work extends the formulations of the mode-displacement and summation-of-forces methods to include modes with significant local distortions, and load modes. An abstract of the paper,'Structural Dynamic Loads in Response to Impulsive Excitation' is given in appendix B. Another work performed this year under the Grant was 'Size-Reduction Techniques for the Determination of Efficient Aeroservoelastic Models' given in Appendix C.

Karpel, Mardechay↗
NASA NTRS2023

Investigating the Response of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Feedbacks to Spatial Representation of Irrigation in a Coupled Modeling Framework

The transport of water, heat, and momentum from the surface to the atmosphere is dependent in part on the 10 characteristics of the land surface. Together with the model physics, parameterization schemes, and parameters employed, land datasets determine the spatial variability in land surface states (i.e., soil moisture and temperature) and fluxes. Despite the importance of these datasets, they are often chosen out of convenience or regional limitations without due assessment of their impacts on model results. Irrigation is an anthropogenic form of land heterogeneity that has been shown to alter the land surface energy balance, ambient weather, and local circulations. As such, irrigation schemes are becoming more 15 prevalent in weather and climate models with rapid developments in dataset availability and parameterization scheme complexity. Thus, to address pragmatic issues related to modeling irrigation, this study uses a high-resolution, regional coupled modeling system to investigate the impacts of irrigation dataset selection on land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling using a case study from the Great Plains Irrigation Experiment (GRAINEX) field campaign. The simulations are assessed in the context of irrigated versus non-irrigated regions, subregions across the irrigation gradient, and sub-grid scale process 20 representation in coarser scale models. The results show that L-A coupling is sensitive to the choice of irrigation dataset and resolution and that the irrigation impact on surface fluxes and near surface meteorology can be dominant, conditioned on the details of the irrigation map (i.e., boundaries, heterogeneity, etc), or minimal. A consistent finding across several analyses was that even a low percentage of irrigation fraction (i.e., 4-16%) can have significant local and downstream atmospheric impacts (e.g., lower PBL height), suggesting that representation of boundaries and heterogeneous areas within irrigated 25 regions is particularly important for the modeling of irrigation impacts on the atmosphere in this model. When viewing the simulations presented here as a proxy for ‘ideal’ tiling in a Earth System Model scale gridbox, the results show that some ‘tiles’ will reach critical nonlinear moisture and planetary boundary layer (PBL) thresholds that could be important for clouds and convection, implying that heterogeneity resulting from irrigation should be taken into consideration in new sub-grid land-atmosphere exchange parameterizations.

Patricia Lawston-Parker↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for a third-generation leptoquark coupled to a τ lepton and a b quark through single, pair, and nonresonant production in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search is presented for a third-generation leptoquark (LQ) coupled exclusively to a τ lepton and a b quark. The search is based on proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded with the CMS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Events with τ leptons and a varying number of jets originating from b quarks are considered, targeting the single and pair production of LQs, as well as nonresonant t-channel LQ exchange. An excess is observed in the data with respect to the background expectation in the combined analysis of all search regions. For a benchmark LQ mass of 2 TeV and an LQ-b-τ coupling strength of 2.5, the excess reaches a local significance of up to 2.8 standard deviations. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level are placed on the LQ production cross section in the LQ mass range 0.5–2.3 TeV, and up to 3 TeV for t-channel LQ exchange. Leptoquarks are excluded below masses of 1.22–1.88 TeV for different LQ models and varying coupling strengths up to 2.5. The study of nonresonant ττ production through t-channel LQ exchange allows lower limits on the LQ mass of up to 2.3 TeV to be obtained.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ultrasonic additive manufacturing of zirconium: Pilot results

Ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM) was successfully applied to the Zirconium material system to create a three-dimensional component prototype. The UAM process resulted in grain size refinement and significant localized deformation. Electron backscatter diffraction analysis revealed activated slip systems only applicable at high deformation temperatures, while texture analysis showed a decrease in measurable texture of the UAM build in comparison to the initial Zr-foil. Average tensile strengths in the X (sonotrode travel), Y (vibration), and Z (build) directions averaged 435 MPa, 458 MPa, and 359 MPa, respectively, demonstrating the viability of UAM for Zr-based materials. Furthermore, the delamination of some Z specimens along foil boundaries during loading suggests an interplay between interfacial Ti impurities introduced during welding and the spatial dependence of weld quality for this material system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for CP violation in events with top quarks and Z bosons at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 and 13.6 TeV

A search for the violation of the charge-parity (CP) symmetry in the production of top quarks in association with Z bosons is presented, using events with at least three charged leptons and additional jets. The search is performed in a sample of proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2016–2018 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and in 2022 at 13.6 TeV, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 173 fb –1 . For the first time in this final state, observables that are odd under the CP transformation are employed. Also for the first time, physics-informed machine-learning techniques are used to construct these observables. While for standard model (SM) processes the distributions of these observables are predicted to be symmetric around zero, CP-violating modifications of the SM would introduce asymmetries. Two CP-odd operators $\mathcal{O}$$^{I}_{tW}$ and $\mathcal{O}$$^{I}_{tZ}$ in the SM effective field theory are considered that may modify the interactions between top quarks and electroweak bosons. The obtained results are consistent with the SM prediction within two standard deviations, and exclusion limits on the associated Wilson coefficients of –2.7 < $c$$^{I}_{tW}$ < 2.5 and –0.2 < $c$$^{I}_{tZ}$ < 2.0 and are set at 95 % confidence level. The largest discrepancy is observed in $c$$^{I}_{tZ}$ where data is consistent with positive values, with an observed local significance with respect to the SM hypothesis of 2.5 standard deviations, when only linear terms are considered.

CMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coulombically-stabilized oxygen hole polarons enable fully reversible oxygen redox

Stabilizing high-valent redox couples and exotic electronic states necessitates an understanding of the stabilization mechanism. In oxides, whether they are being considered for energy storage or computing, highly oxidized oxide-anion species rehybridize to form short covalent bonds and are related to significant local structural distortions. In intercalation oxide electrodes for batteries, while such reorganization partially stabilizes oxygen redox, it also gives rise to substantial hysteresis. In this work, we investigate oxygen redox in layered Na 2-x Mn 3 O 7 , a positive electrode material with ordered Mn vacancies. We prove that coulombic interactions between oxidized oxide-anions and the interlayer Na vacancies can disfavor rehybridization and stabilize hole polarons on oxygen (O-) at 4.2 V vs. Na/Na + . These coulombic interactions provide thermodynamic energy saving as large as O–O covalent bonding and enable ~40 mV voltage hysteresis over multiple electrochemical cycles with negligible voltage fade. As such, our results establish a complete picture of redox energetics by highlighting the role of coulombic interactions across several atomic distances and suggest avenues to stabilize highly oxidized oxygen for applications in energy storage and beyond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Radiation Damage Analysis of FNSF Components Using McCad and MCNP

The Fusion Energy System Studies Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FESS-FNSF) concept represents a transitional step between ITER and a commercial fusion power plant. The FNSF is a conceptualized D-T fueled tokamak with 518 MW of fusion power that has been extensively used to explore and optimize design features. The energetic 14.1-MeV neutrons can produce significant localized heating and activations, and can cause damage to plasma-facing components, which can determine maintenance/outage scheduling needs and also impact the lifetime of the device as a whole. This study illustrates a neutronics analysis that was conducted on a 22.5-degree symmetric sector of the FNSF with the goal of understanding the neutron heating and radiation damage that can be characterized by quantifying the displacements per atom (dpa). Concurrently, this study also focused on the development of analysis capabilities by converting a three-dimensional computer-aided design model of the FNSF into MCNP6.2 input using the McCad code. Accordingly, some confirmatory results on tritium production and the tritium breeding ratio (TBR) are provided to support model validation. The results produced by MCNP6.2 simulations showed that the highest heating and damage occurred in the outboard region, which concentrated approximately 290 MW of the total nuclear heating, in contrast to 97 MW within the inboard region. These results are consistent with previous studies that employed earlier versions of the FNSF concept and different modeling approaches. Furthermore, this study also provides additional details on neutron wall loading, as well as total heating from neutrons and gammas, results which show the total heating of the device (16 sectors) is approximately 477.83 ± 0.80% MW, indicating a neutron energy multiplication factor of 1.15. Additionally, the capability to calculate hydrogen and helium production, as well as dpa, is illustrated. Finally, the neutronics effects of using alternative materials to tungsten carbide were evaluated for the vacuum vessel, low-temperature shield, and structural ring components, which showed that compounds like YH 2 , Mg(BH 4 ) 2 , and ZrH 2 could reduce the total heating on the magnet and also reduce the TBR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

3D mapping of residual stresses in growing grains of partially recrystallized Gum Metal

The crystallographic orientations and residual stresses within recrystallizing grains in partially recrystallized beta titanium-Gum Metal-were examined non-destructively in 3D using synchrotron Differential Aperture X-ray Microscopy. Contrary to common assumptions, significant local stresses and stress variations are observed within the recrystallizing grains. The results reveal that the development of these local residual stresses depends on the plastic deformation mode and material's elastic constants, rather than grain properties such as size and orientation, or even the material's yield stress. This work provides insights valuable for the design of advanced materials with heterogeneous microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Active and passive defects in tetragonal tungsten bronze relaxor ferroelectrics

Tetragonal tungsten bronze (TTB) based oxides constitute a large family of dielectric materials which are known to exhibit complex distortions producing incommensurately modulated superstructures as well as significant local deviations from their average symmetry. The local deviations produce diffuse scattering in diffraction experiments. The structure as well as the charge dynamics of these materials are anticipated to be sensitive to defects, such as cation or oxygen vacancies. In this work, in an effort to understand how the structural and charge dynamical properties respond to these two types of vacancy defects, we have performed measurements of dielectric susceptibilities and single crystal diffraction experiments of two types of TTB materials with both ‘filled’ (Ba 2 NdFeNb 4 O 15 and Ba 2 PrFeNb 4 O 15 ) and ‘unfilled’ (Sr 0.5 Ba 0.5 Nb 2 O 6 ) cation sublattices. We also perform these measurements before and after oxygen annealing, which alters the oxygen vacancy concentrations. Surprisingly, we find that many of the diffuse scattering features that are present in the unfilled structure are also present in the filled structure, suggesting that the random fields and disorder that are characteristic of the unfilled structure are not responsible for many of the local structural features that are reflected in the diffuse scattering. Furthermore, oxygen annealing clearly affected both color and dielectric properties, consistent with a diminishment of the oxygen vacancy concentration, but had little effect on observed diffuse patterns.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inclusive Search for Anomalous Single-Photon Production in MicroBooNE

We present an inclusive search for anomalous production of single-photon events from neutrino interactions in the MicroBooNE experiment. The search and its signal definition are motivated by the previous observation of a low-energy excess of electromagnetic shower events from the MiniBooNE experiment. We use the Wire-Cell reconstruction framework to select a sample of inclusive single-photon final-state interactions with a final efficiency and purity of 7.0% and 40.2%, respectively. We leverage simultaneous measurements of sidebands of charged current 𝜈 𝜇 interactions and neutral current interactions producing 𝜋 0 mesons to constrain signal and background predictions and reduce uncertainties. We perform a blind analysis using a dataset collected from February 2016 to July 2018, corresponding to an exposure of 6.34 × 10 20 protons on target from the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. In the full signal region, we observe agreement between the data and the prediction, with a goodness-of-fit 𝑝 value of 0.11. We then isolate a subsample of these events containing no visible protons, and observe 93 ± 22⁢(stat) ±35⁢(syst) data events above prediction, corresponding to just above 2⁢𝜎 local significance, concentrated at shower energies below 600 MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 and 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 (4338) 0 in ϒ(1𝑆,2𝑆) Inclusive Decays at Belle

Using data samples of 102 million ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆) events and 158 million ϒ⁡(2⁢𝑆) events collected by the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy 𝑒+⁢𝑒− collider, we search for [𝑢⁢𝑑⁢𝑠⁢𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$ ] pentaquark states decaying to 𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ. Using the first observations of ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆,2⁢𝑆) inclusive decays to 𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ, we find evidence of the 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 state with a local significance of 3.3 standard deviations, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We measure the mass and width of the 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 to be (4471.7±4.8±0.6) MeV/𝑐 2 and (22 ±13 ±3) MeV, respectively. The branching fractions for 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 production are measured to be ℬ⁡[ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆)→𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459)0/ $\overline{𝑃}$ 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 +anything]=(3.5±2.0±0.2)×10 −6 and ℬ⁡[ϒ⁡(2⁢𝑆)→𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 /$\overline{𝑃}$ 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 +anything]=(2.9±1.7±0.4)×10 −6 . The inclusive branching fractions of ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆,2⁢𝑆) →𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ/$\overline{Λ}$ are measured to be ℬ⁡[ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆) →𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ/$\overline{Λ}$ +anything] =(36.9 ±5.3 ±2.4) ×10 −6 and ℬ⁡[ϒ⁡(2⁢𝑆) →𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ/$\overline{Λ}$ +anything] =(22.3 ±5.7 ±3.1) ×10 −6 . We measure the visible cross section 𝜎⁡(𝑒+⁢𝑒−→𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ/ $\overline{Λ}$ +anything)=(90±14±6) fb for the continuum production at √𝑠 =10.52 GeV. In all cases, the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study of the B - → Λ c + Λ ¯ c - K - decay

The decay B - → $Λ^+_c \overline{Λ}^-_c K^-$ is studied in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 fb -1 collected by the LHCb experiment. In the $Λ^+_c K^-$ system, the Ξ c (2930) 0 state observed at the BABAR and Belle experiments is resolved into two narrower states, Ξ c (2923) 0 and Ξ c (2939) 0 , whose masses and widths are measured to be m(Ξ c (2923) 0 ) = 2924.5 ± 0.4 ± 1.1 MeV, m(Ξ c (2939) 0 ) = 2938.5 ± 0.9 ± 2.3 MeV, Γ(Ξ c (2923) 0 ) = 4.8 ± 0.9 ± 1.5 MeV, Γ(Ξ c (2939) 0 ) = 11.0 ± 1.9 ± 7.5 MeV, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. The results are consistent with a previous LHCb measurement using a prompt $Λ^+_c K^-$ sample. Evidence of a new Ξ c (2880) 0 state is found with a local significance of 3.8σ, whose mass and width are measured to be 2881.8 ± 3.1 ± 8.5 MeV and 12.4 ± 5.3 ± 5.8 MeV, respectively. In addition, evidence of a new decay mode Ξ c (2790) 0 → $Λ^+_c K^-$ is found with a significance of 3.7σ. The relative branching fraction of B - → $Λ^+_c \overline{Λ}^-_c K^-$ with respect to the B - → D + D - K - decay is measured to be 2.36 ± 0.11 0.22 ± 0.25, where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second systematic and the third originates from the branching fractions of charm hadron decays.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Energy Conversion in Higher-Order Phase Space Density Moments in Plasmas

Weakly collisional and collisionless plasmas are typically far from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE), and understanding energy conversion in such systems is a forefront research problem. The standard approach is to investigate changes in internal (thermal) energy and density, but this omits energy conversion that changes any higher-order moments of the phase space density. In this Letter, we calculate from first principles the energy conversion associated with all higher moments of the phase space density for systems not in LTE. Particle-in-cell simulations of collisionless magnetic reconnection reveal that energy conversion associated with higher-order moments can be locally significant. Furthermore, the results may be useful in numerous plasma settings, such as reconnection, turbulence, shocks, and wave-particle interactions in heliospheric, planetary, and astrophysical plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of V Content on Corrosion Behavior of Al-V Alloys Produced by Mechanical Alloying and Subsequent Spark Plasma Sintering

Al-V alloys produced via high-energy ball milling have been reported to show simultaneous improvement of corrosion resistance and mechanical properties compared to traditional Al alloys. In these alloys, V content plays a crucial role in increasing or decreasing the corrosion resistance. Therefore, the effect of V and microstructure on corrosion of high-energy ball milled and subsequently spark plasma sintered Al-xV alloys (x = 2, 5, 10 at%) has been studied. Cyclic potentiodynamic polarization tests and electrochemical impedance spectroscopic analysis revealed the increment of V content up to 5 at% enhanced the corrosion resistance of the alloy. However, highly heterogeneous microstructure in Al-10 at%V resulted in significant localized corrosion over the immersion time. The electrochemical impedance spectroscopy studies over 14 days of immersion revealed underlying corrosion mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the optical parametric amplification phase on laser pulse compression

Optical parametric chirped-pulse amplification (OPCPA) is an effective way to generate ultrashort pulses that has been used extensively for a variety of applications requiring high peak intensities. Precise control and measurement of a system’s spectral and spatial phases are required for Fourier transform–limited pulse compression and diffraction-limited focusing. Phase accumulated during optical parametric amplification (OPA) can degrade the compressibility and focusability of the pulse, reducing peak intensity. We used analytic and numerical analysis of OPA to study the influence of crystal parameters, wavefront of the pump and signal, and their relative optical alignment on the accumulated phase. Here, we show that the accumulated signal phase is largely independent of amplifier saturation and, with significant local wavefront gradients in the signal or pump beam, the quality of the compressed pulses can be degraded. We use first-order expressions for the pump- and signal-angle sensitivity to evaluate an OPCPA system consisting of a highly deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) amplifier designed to support bandwidth for 15 fs pulses centered at 920 nm.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inclusive Search for Anomalous Single-Photon Production in MicroBooNE

The MicroBooNE experiment is an 85-ton active volume liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detector situated in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam. One of the main goals for MicroBooNE is to investigate the “low energy excess” (LEE) of electromagnetic events observed by the MiniBooNE experiment by leveraging the unique capabilities of the LArTPC technology to distinguish photons from electron electromagnetic showers. In this poster, we present an inclusive search for anomalous production of single-photon events from neutrino interactions in the MicroBooNE experiment, motivated by the MiniBooNE LEE. The analysis uses the Wire-Cell reconstruction framework to select a sample of inclusive single-photon final-state interactions and leverages simultaneous measurements of sidebands to constrain signal and background predictions and reduce uncertainties. We perform a blind analysis using a dataset collected from February 2016 to July 2018 from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab. In the full signal region, we observe agreement between the data and the prediction, with a goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.11. We then isolate a sub-sample of these events containing no visible protons, and observe 93 $/pm$ 22(stat.) $\pm$ 35(syst.) data events above prediction, corresponding to just above 2$\sigma$ local significance, concentrated at shower energies below 600 MeV.

Yandel, Erin [Los Alamos] (ORCID:0000000277123709)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗