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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) Assessment for the Chemicals, Metals, and Pesticides (CMP) Pits Operable Unit (OU) and the Pen Branch Wetland

In October 2024, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was tasked to conduct an independent review of groundwater data and assess the monitored natural attenuation (MNA) performance related to the Chemicals, Metals, and Pesticides (CMP) Pits Operable Unit (OU) located in the central portion of the Savannah River Site (SRS). The SRNL assessment of MNA entailed an independent analysis of groundwater concentration data, groundwater elevation data, available surface water concentration data, soil concentration data, and relevant historical geological characterization logs for the CMP Pits OU. Historical data tables and records were obtained from both the Savannah River Nuclear Solutions - Area Completion Projects (SRNSACP) team and South Carolina State University (SCSU) and condensed into new data sets by the SRNL project team for more targeted analysis of MNA performance characteristics. All data pertaining to groundwater concentration, surface water concentration, and groundwater elevation were restricted to collection dates after any known active remediation for the CMP OU.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage

The project Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The South Carolina Research Foundation and partners evaluated the feasibility of CCS in the Jurassic/ Triassic (J / TR) saline formations of the buried Mesozoic South Georgia Rift (SGR) Basin that extends from South Carolina into Georgia. The J / TR sequence, based on preliminary assessment of limited geologic and geophysical data, appears to have both the appropriate areal extent and multiple horizons to permanently and safely store CO2 The presence of several igneous rock layers within the sequence may potentially provide adequate seals to prevent upward CO2 migration into the Coastal Plain aquifer systems. Approximately 81 kilometers of 2-D seismic reflection data were collected by Bay Geophysical, Inc. to explore a portion of the SGR located in southern Georgia. The 81 kilometers were divided into two lines approximately 40.5 kilometers each, with Line 1 intersecting Georgia well GGS 3457. Line 2 intersects Line 1 at the southern portion of Line 1 to maximize the extent of coverage away from GGS-3457 (a deep well drilled in the 1980s for oil and gas exploration). This well had a set of usable logs, including gamma and neutron logs that provided promising results related to CO2 storage. Results showed sandstone with porosity values greater than 10 percent and a thickness of 120 meters. The design of the seismic shot was to extrapolate information away from the well and to better define the extent of the SGR and the necessary reservoir and caprock for a successful CO2 injection. A numerical simulation model of CO2 Injection and migration was developed based on the geology log for the GGS-3457 well. The simulation model was used to investigate the feasibility of injecting 30 million metric tons of CO2 into SGR J / TA sediments and integrity of the diabase layers as seals to prevent CO2 migration.

2-D seismic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Steel Creek, Pen Branch, and D-Area Watershed Stream Gauging Stations

A network of stream gauging systems were installed in the Steel Creek, Pen Branch, D-Area Discharge Canal, and the D006 Stream in support of the groundwater modeling efforts for the P-Area Groundwater Operable Unit (OU); Chemical, Metals, and Pesticides (CMP) Pits OU; and the D-Area Watershed, respectively. Each location is monitored by a MACE Floseries3 FloPro data logger and a MACE doppler ultrasonic area/velocity sensor. Each stream gauging system is powered by an internal 12-volt battery supplied by a solar panel with a trickle charger. Information collected by each data logger is logged internally and telecommunicated via a cellular network to an online server for real time analysis and monitoring. The MACE doppler ultrasonic area/velocity sensor can measure stream depth and velocities to give output values of flow rates, total flow, net flow, and volumes. The water depth is measured by a ceramic pressure transducer located on the top of the sensor. The velocity is measured by a continuous wave doppler sensor to give an average velocity across the whole stream profile. This report discusses the equipment and methods used to install continuous stream gauging stations and provides a summary of data collected through FY2025.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark energy survey year 3 results: cosmology from galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing in harmonic space

We present the joint tomographic analysis of galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering in harmonic space (HS), using galaxy catalogues from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We utilize the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues as lens galaxies and the metacalibration catalogue as source galaxies. The measurements of angular power spectra are performed using the pseudo-$C_\ell$ method, and our theoretical modelling follows the fiducial analyses performed by DES Y3 in configuration space, accounting for galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, magnification bias, shear magnification bias and photometric redshift uncertainties. We explore different approaches for scale cuts based on non-linear galaxy bias and baryonic effects contamination. Our fiducial covariance matrix is computed analytically, accounting for mask geometry in the Gaussian term, and including non-Gaussian contributions and super-sample covariance terms. To validate our HS pipelines and covariance matrix, we used a suite of 1800 log-normal simulations. We also perform a series of stress tests to gauge the robustness of our HS analysis. In the $\Lambda$CDM model, the clustering amplitude $S_8 =\sigma _8(\Omega _m/0.3)^{0.5}$ is constrained to $S_8 = 0.704\pm 0.029$ and $S_8 = 0.753\pm 0.024$ (68 per cent C.L.) for the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. For the wCDM, the dark energy equation of state is constrained to $w = -1.28 \pm 0.29$ and $w = -1.26^{+0.34}_{-0.27}$, for redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. These results are compatible with the corresponding DES Y3 results in configuration space and pave the way for HS analyses using the DES Y6 data.

(cosmology:) cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing gas composition from fast pyrolysis of live foliage measured in bench-scale and fire-scale experiments

Background: Fire models have used pyrolysis data from oxidising and non-oxidising environments for flaming combustion. In wildland fires pyrolysis, flaming and smouldering combustion typically occur in an oxidising environment (the atmosphere). Aims: Using compositional data analysis methods, determine if the composition of pyrolysis gases measured in non-oxidising and ambient (oxidising) atmospheric conditions were similar. Methods: Permanent gases and tars were measured in a fuel-rich (non-oxidising) environment in a flat flame burner (FFB). Permanent and light hydrocarbon gases were measured for the same fuels heated by a fire flame in ambient atmospheric conditions (oxidising environment). Log-ratio balances of the measured gases common to both environments (CO, CO 2 , CH 4 , H 2 , C 6 H 6 O (phenol), and other gases) were examined by principal components analysis (PCA), canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA). Key results: Mean composition changed between the non-oxidising and ambient atmosphere samples. PCA showed that flat flame burner (FFB) samples were tightly clustered and distinct from the ambient atmosphere samples. CDA found that the difference between environments was defined by the CO-CO 2 log-ratio balance. PERMANOVA and pairwise comparisons found FFB samples differed from the ambient atmosphere samples which did not differ from each other. Conclusion: Relative composition of these pyrolysis gases differed between the oxidising and non-oxidising environments. This comparison was one of the first comparisons made between bench-scale and field scale pyrolysis measurements using compositional data analysis. Implications: These results indicate the need for more fundamental research on the early time-dependent pyrolysis of vegetation in the presence of oxygen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Most Promising Sequestration Formations in the Rocky Mountain Region

The project Characterization of Most Promising Sequestration Formations in the Rocky Mountain Region is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The Rocky Mountain Carbon Capture and Storage (RMCCS) project investigated multiple geologic formations and characterized a local site on the Colorado Plateau for future CCS opportunities. The RMCCS project focused on the Cretaceous Dakota, Jurassic Entrada, and Pennsylvanian Weber Sandstones, the three largest regional formations. All formations in this project are potential CO2 storage resources for future power plants, natural gas processing plants, cement plants, and oil shale development projects. The area adjacent to Craig, Colorado, (Sand Wash Basin) was the area selected for detailed geologic characterization on the RMCCS project. The basin was selected in part because the geology can be extrapolated to other sites on the Colorado Plateau. Field mapping and seismic surveys were conducted to identify and evaluate the basin's structural configuration. A 9,745-foot deep characterization well was drilled to collect 131 feet of core and a suite of geophysical well log data. Petrophysical tests on samples of core were used to calibrate geophysical log data, which can be used to obtain storage resource estimates and evaluate associated uncertainty as well as simulate the hydrologic behavior of injected CO2. A detailed analysis of the primary formations (Dakota, Entrada and Weber sandstones) yielded a more accurate CO2 storage resource assessment for these formations within the Colorado Plateau; RMCCS estimates indicate a total CO2 storage resource of more than 38,000 million metric tons. The characterization of the Sand Wash Basin (2-D seismic surveys, multiple well logs and lithological, petrophysical and geochemical analyses) allowed for a detailed 3-D model to be constructed. The model served as the framework for analyses ranging from CO2 storage resource, injectivity, and subsurface flow to uncertainty estimates to evaluation of risk.

2-D seismic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Pliocene and Miocene Formations in the Wilmington Graben, Offshore Los Angeles, for Large-Scale Geologic Storage of CO2

The project Characterization of Pliocene and Miocene Formations in the Wilmington Graben, Offshore Los Angeles, for Large-Scale Geologic Storage of CO2 is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The Los Angeles Basin presents an opportunity for large-scale geologic CO2 storage. Due to its large population and historical and geologic setting as one of the most prolific oil and gas producing basins in the United States, the region is home to more than 12 major power plants and oil refineries that produce more than 5 million metric tons of fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions each year. GeoMechanics Technologies worked to characterize the Pliocene and Miocene sediments in the Wilmington Graben, offshore of Los Angeles, California, for high-volume CO2 storage. The Graben is located offshore of the Los Angeles and Long Beach Harbor area, making it accessible yet geologically isolated from the nearby Wilmington oilfield and onshore areas. These sediments span more than 5,000 feet of vertical interval with an estimated storage resource of more than 100 million metric tons of CO2. The project team analyzed and interpreted existing geologic data within the region, including detailed exploration well log data and 2-D and 3-D seismic data. New seismic lines were acquired to fill in current data gap areas and two new characterization wells were drilled and logged. This information was integrated with existing geologic interpretations for adjacent onshore areas to help characterize optimal areas for CO2 storage and seals to safely store CO2. Integrated 3-D geologic and geomechanical models for the Wilmington Graben were developed to simulate the fate and transport of injected CO2 in the subsurface and to assess risks. This project contributed to the understanding of injectivity, containment mechanisms, rate of dissolution and mineralization, and storage capacity of the Wilmington Graben and associated analogous basins. This effort also provided greater insight into the potential for offshore geologic formations to safely and permanently store CO2.

.las↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling geophysical, geological, geochemical and mineralogical assessments to examine preferential contaminant transport pathways in interbedded fractured bedrock

This study shows that a multi-faceted approach, combining borehole geophysical logging and surface seismic P-wave first-arrival tomography with confirmatory coring, well installation, and chemical and mineralogical analysis, is effective for identifying difficult-to-locate preferential contaminant transport pathways in deeper fractured bedrock. Seismic tomography detected porous 10–20 m wide elongated fractured conduits that allow acidic groundwater contaminated with uranium (U) and nitrate (NO 3 - ) to migrate within interbedded shale-limestone bedrock over 1000 m from a former disposal facility (S-3 Ponds site) located at the DOE Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee (USA). Conventional drilling techniques would easily miss these conduits because they are oriented parallel with fractured bedding planes. Synchrotron analysis of aquifer solids revealed that > 95 % of the U is hexavalent (U VI ). This uranyl (UO 2 2+ ) species is coordinated with carbonate, iron oxide, silicate and phosphate minerals within cemented white to yellow precipitates, which contain U concentrations as high as ∼21.6 % by weight fraction. Identifying the presence of these mineral phases, enables a further understanding of the potential effectiveness of remediation actions. The combination of methodologies presented here can also be applied to other explorations, such as the detection of water supply.

Fate and transport↗
DOE OSTI2026

New Time Integrators and Capabilities in SUNDIALS Versions 6.2.0-7.4.0

SUNDIALS is a well-established numerical library that provides robust and efficient time integrators and nonlinear solvers. This article overviews several significant improvements and new features added over the last 3 years to support scientific simulations run on high-performance computing systems. Notably, three new classes of one-step methods have been implemented: low storage Runge–Kutta, symplectic partitioned Runge–Kutta, and operator splitting. In addition, we describe new timestep adaptivity support for multirate methods, adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities for explicit Runge–Kutta methods, additional options for Anderson acceleration in nonlinear solvers, and improved error handling and logging.

Computer science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Retro-Commissioning Sensor Suitcase for Energy Efficiency (CRADA Final Report)

The Sensor Suitcase project aimed to enable cost-effective, data-driven retro-commissioning (RCx) in small commercial buildings through a self-installable toolkit consisting of portable sensors and diagnostic software. Results showed that the Sensor Suitcase could identify common operational faults leading to 5–15% energy savings opportunities, with automated reports requiring minimal user interpretation. The project adhered closely to its Statement of Work (SOW) but evolved the reporting interface and sensor logging duration based on field feedback. The development and validation of diagnostics are documented in PNNL technical reports and internal analysis summaries.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures. Here, in this study, we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection function of clusters in Dark Energy Survey year 3 data from cross-matching with South Pole Telescope detections

Context. Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. However, modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by noncluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). Aims. We empirically constrained the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy Survey data with the redMaPPer algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). Methods. For matched clusters, we augmented the redMaPPer catalog with the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we used the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multiwavelength data, we explored various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Results. Our analysis reveals a clear preference for models with an additional skewed scatter component associated with projection effects over a purely log-normal scatter model. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge that requires a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

LYNM-PE1 Seismic Parameters from Borehole Log, Laboratory, and Tabletop Measurements

The goal of this work is to provide a database of quality-checked seismic parameters that can be integrated with the Geologic Framework Model (GFM) for the LYNM-PE1 (Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring – Physical Experiment 1) testbed. We integrated data from geophysical borehole logs, tabletop measurements on collected core, and laboratory measurements. We reviewed for internal consistency among each measurement type, documented the caveats of measurement conditions, and integrated lithologic logs to check the validity of outlier values. The resulting consolidated parameter tables can be used as inputs for modeling and analysis codes and are designed to interface with the GFM, which is being actively developed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Plasma proteomic biomarkers of physical frailty in heart failure: a propensity score matched discovery-based pilot study

Background: Physical frailty is highly prevalent in heart failure (HF), but we lack an understanding of the underlying pathophysiology. Proteomics evaluation of plasma samples may elucidate potential mechanisms and biomarkers of physical frailty in HF. We aimed to identify plasma proteomic biomarkers that are differentially expressed between physically frail and non physically frail adults with HF. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of a subset of data and plasma samples from a study of frailty among patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) Functional Classification I-IV HF. Physical frailty was measured using the Frailty Phenotype Criteria. Propensity score matching was used to match pairs of physically frail (n = 20) vs. non-physically frail (n = 20) patients on clinical characteristics. Plasma samples were processed using a sensitive liquid chromatography mass spectrometry platform, utilizing a multiplexed tandem mass tag-labeled quantitative proteomics approach. Differentially expressed proteins were quantified individually using paired t tests with associated log fold change of 0.3 and Fisher’s combined p values. Results: The sample (n = 40) was 62.8±16.9 years old, 58% female, and 55% NYHA Class III/IV. Proteomics analysis revealed 7 proteins differentially expressed using full differential criteria: matrix metalloproteinase-14 was downregulated in frailty, and copine-1, low affinity immunoglobulin gamma Fc region receptor III-A and III-B, probable non-functional immunoglobulin kappa variable 2D-24, glutathione S-transferase Mu 1, and argininosuccinate lyase were upregulated in frailty. Conclusions: Proteomic biomarkers related to the immune system, stress response, and detoxification were differentially expressed between physically frail and non-physically frail adults with HF.

Biomarkers↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamics of the near-extremal Kerr spacetime

We examine the thermodynamics of a near-extremal Kerr black hole, and demonstrate that the geometry behaves as an ordinary quantum system with a vanishingly small degeneracy at low temperatures. This is in contrast with the classical analysis, which instead predicts a macroscopic entropy for the extremal Kerr black hole. Our results follow from a careful analysis of the gravitational path integral. Specifically, the low temperature canonical partition function behaves as Z ~ T$\frac{3}{2}$ e S 0 +c log S 0 , with S 0 the classical degeneracy and c a numerical coefficient we compute. This is in line with the general expectations for non-supersymmetric near-extremal black hole thermodynamics, as has been clarified in the recent past, although cases without spherical symmetry have not yet been fully analyzed until now. We also point out some curious features relating to the rotational zero modes of the near-extremal Kerr black hole background that affects the coefficient c. This raises a puzzle when considering similar black holes in string theory. Our results generalize to other rotating black holes, as we briefly exemplify.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios, combining Bayesian inference with linear-logarithmic (lin-log) rate laws. These metabolic control coefficients quantify how changes in enzyme activities affect steady-state fluxes and metabolite concentrations across a metabolic network. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCC), and concentration control coefficients (CCC) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. We demonstrate that BMCA predictions are highly dependent on the inclusion of flux and enzyme concentration data, with the omission of these datasets leading to severe inaccuracies. In our synthetic, enzyme-perturbation datasets, external metabolite concentrations had minimal impact and, in some cases, their exclusion improved predictions; when external-nutrient perturbations were introduced and those concentrations were observed, gains were at most modest. Additionally, we find that posterior estimation with both ADVI and HMC can underestimate large-magnitude elasticities in our synthetic settings, with ADVI showing somewhat higher variance under strong up-regulation; thus, recovering |elasticity| ≳ 1.5 remains challenging regardless of the inference engine. ADVI also fails to accurately infer allosteric interactions, even when regulatory effects are strong. While BMCA maintains reasonable accuracy in partially recovering the rankings of the highest FCC values, its estimates of absolute values remain constrained by prior assumptions and data limitations. Our findings reveal the BMCA algorithm’s strengths and weaknesses, providing guidance on its application in metabolic engineering, and highlighting the need for methodological refinements to enhance its predictive capabilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗