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At least 55 records · Page 3

Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This report highlights best practices for enhanced load modeling and forecasting for long-term power sector planning. The best practices touch on stakeholder engagement, data acquisition and management, modeling and validation, and scenario development. Case studies are provided to highlight crosscutting lessons that could inform enhanced load modeling and forecasting across different country settings. Though this work presents best practices resulting from support to the PDOE, the list is by no means exhaustive—nor is it meant to be prescriptive.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Regenerative (Regen) ECLSS Operations Water Balance

In November 2008, the Water Regenerative System racks were launched aboard Space Shuttle flight, STS-126 (ULF2) and installed and activated on the International Space Station (ISS). These racks, consisting of the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) and Urine Processor Assembly (UPA), completed the installation of the Regenerative (Regen) ECLSS systems which includes the Oxygen Generator Assembly (OGA) that was launched 2 years prior. With the onset of active water management on the US segment of the ISS, a new operational concept was required, that of "water balance." Even more recently, in 2010 the Sabatier system came online which converts H2 and CO2 into water and methane. The Regen ECLSS systems accept condensation from the atmosphere, urine from crew, and processes that fluid via various means into potable water which is used for crew drinking, building up skip-cycle water inventory, and water for electrolysis to produce oxygen. Specification rates of crew urine output, condensate output, O2 requirements, toilet flush water and drinking needs are well documented and used as a general plan when Regen ECLSS came online. Spec rates are useful in long term planning, however, daily or weekly rates are dependent on a number of variables. The constantly changing rates created a new challenge for the ECLSS flight controllers, who are responsible for operating the ECLSS systems onboard ISS. This paper will review the various inputs to rate changes and inputs to planning events, including but not limited to; crew personnel makeup, Regen ECLSS system operability, vehicle traffic, water containment availability, and Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) capability. Along with the inputs that change the various rates, the paper will review the different systems, their constraints and finally the operational means by which flight controllers manage this new challenge of "water balance."

Tobias, Barry↗

International Space Station Water Balance Operations

In November 2008, the Water Regenerative System racks were launched aboard Space Shuttle flight, STS-126 (ULF2) and installed and activated on the International Space Station (ISS). These racks, consisting of the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) and Urine Processor Assembly (UPA), completed the installation of the Regenerative (Regen) Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS), which includes the Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) that was launched 2 years prior. With the onset of active water management on the US segment of the ISS, a new operational concept was required, that of water balance . In November of 2010, the Sabatier system, which converts H2 and CO2 into water and methane, was brought on line. The Regen ECLSS systems accept condensation from the atmosphere, urine from crew, and processes that fluid via various means into potable water, which is used for crew drinking, building up skip-cycle water inventory, and water for electrolysis to produce oxygen. Specification (spec) rates of crew urine output, condensate output, O2 requirements, toilet flush water, and drinking needs are well documented and used as the best guess planning rates when Regen ECLSS came online. Spec rates are useful in long term planning, however, daily or weekly rates are dependent upon a number of variables. The constantly changing rates created a new challenge for the ECLSS flight controllers, who are responsible for operating the ECLSS systems onboard ISS from Mission Control in Houston. This paper reviews the various inputs to water planning, rate changes, and dynamic events, including but not limited to: crew personnel makeup, Regen ECLSS system operability, vehicle traffic, water storage availability, and Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA), Sabatier, and OGA capability. Along with the inputs that change the various rates, the paper will review the different systems, their constraints, and finally the operational challenges and means by which flight controllers manage this new concept of "water balance."

Tobias, Barry↗

Roadmap to Automated Mobility Systems: Informing the Planning of a Sustainable, Resilient Transportation Ecosystem for Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed this report to provide Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) assistance toward a vision that considers the maturation and proliferation of mobility automation, electrification, and infrastructure integrated with Internet of Things (IoT) technologies as they present themselves on the path to 2035. In planning ongoing infrastructure investments, DFW has goals to accommodate and leverage these enabling technologies toward greater sustainability and enhanced traveler and employee experiences, ensuring that infrastructure investments are fully utilized into the future. The objective of this document is to assist DFW to anticipate and envision future airport access by travelers, employees, and goods by examining existing needs and exploring opportunities enabled by technology that informs longer-term infrastructure planning. The vast infrastructure of DFW, which includes buildings, roadways, and other physical structures, as well as growing digital and energy network infrastructures, requires long-term planning and strategy to fully leverage technology advancement and avoid abandoning assets due to functional obsolescence.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Disjunctive optimization model and algorithm for long-term capacity expansion planning of reliable power generation systems

This paper proposes a new optimization model and algorithm for long-term capacity expansion planning of reliable power generation systems. The model optimizes both investment decisions (e.g., size, location, and time to install, retire and decommission facilities) and operation decisions (e.g., on/off status, operating capacity, and expected power output). It is also able to optimize reserve systems (or backup systems), as well as the main systems, to improve power systems reliability. An impact of operational strategies of generators (i.e., participating in electricity production vs. remaining as idle units during operation) on power systems reliability is considered. Probability of equipment failures and capacity failure states are used to rigorously estimate the power systems reliability depending on design and operation strategies. The optimization model is formulated with Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP), which is reformulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model using the Hull relaxation. Two reliability-related penalties, such as downtime penalty and unmet demand penalty, are included in the objective function to maximize reliability while minimizing the total net present cost. Furthermore, a bilevel decomposition with tailored cuts is developed to reduce computational times of the multi-scale optimization model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is shown by comparing the results with the results obtained from the expansion planning models that do not explicitly consider reliability. In conclusion, we also show that the proposed bilevel decomposition is computationally efficient for solving large scale problems through 5-years and 10-years planning case studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Artificial Neural Networks

Electric power systems represent complex systems involving many electrical components whoseoperation has to be planned, analyzed, monitored and controlled. The time-scale of tasks in electricpower systems extends from long term planning years ahead to milliseconds in the area of control. The behavior of power systems is highly non-linear. Monitoring and control involves several hundred variables which are only partly available by measurements.

Neural Networks↗

A Year in the Life of International Space Station

The past twelve months (October 2005 to September 2006) have been among the busiest in the life of the International Space Station (ISS), both in terms of on-orbit operations as well as future planning, for both ISS systems and research. The Expedition 12 and 13 crews completed their missions successfully, carrying out research for Russia, the United States, Europe and Japan, and bringing continuous ISS occupancy to nearly six years. The European Space Agency's (ESA) first Long Duration Mission on ISS is underway, involving significant international research. The Expedition 14 crew completed its training and is embarking on its own 6-month mission with a full slate of international research. Future crews are in training for their respective assembly and research missions. Shuttle flights resumed after a 10-month hiatus, delivering new research facilities and resuming assembly of ISS. ESA's Columbus research module was delivered to the Kennedy Space Center, joining Japan's Kibo research module already there. Following preflight testing, the two modules will launch in 2007 and 2008, respectively, joining Destiny as ISS's research infrastructure. A revised ISS configuration and assembly sequence were endorsed by all the Partners, with a reduced number of Shuttle flights, but for the first time including plans for post-Shuttle ISS operations after 2010. The new plan will pose significant challenges to the ISS research community. As Europe and Japan build their on-orbit research infrastructure, and long-term plans become firmer, the next 12 months should prove to be equally challenging and exciting.

Uri, John J.↗

Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel

This Annual Report of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) presents results of activities during calendar year 2001. The year was marked by significant achievements in the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) programs and encouraging accomplishments by the Aerospace Technology Enterprise. Unfortunately, there were also disquieting mishaps with the X-43, a LearJet, and a wind tunnel. Each mishap was analyzed in an orderly process to ascertain causes and derive lessons learned. Both these accomplishments and the responses to the mishaps led the Panel to conclude that safety and risk management is currently being well served within NASA. NASA's operations evidence high levels of safety consciousness and sincere efforts to place safety foremost. Nevertheless, the Panel's safety concerns have never been greater. This dichotomy has arisen because the focus of most NASA programs has been directed toward program survival rather than effective life cycle planning. Last year's Annual Report focused on the need for NASA to adopt a realistically long planning horizon for the aging Space Shuttle so that safety would not erode. NASA's response to the report concurred with this finding. Nevertheless, there has been a greater emphasis on current operations to the apparent detriment of long-term planning. Budget cutbacks and shifts in priorities have severely limited the resources available to the Space Shuttle and ISS for application to risk-reduction and life-extension efforts. As a result, funds originally intended for long-term safety-related activities have been used for operations. Thus, while safety continues to be well served at present, the basis for future safety has eroded. Section II of this report develops this theme in more detail and presents several important, overarching findings and recommendations that apply to many if not all of NASA's programs. Section III of the report presents other significant findings, recommendations and supporting material applicable to specific program areas. Appendix A presents a list of Panel members. Appendix B contains the reaction of the ASAP to NASA's response to the calendar year 2000 findings and recommendations. In accordance with a practice started last year, this Appendix includes brief narratives as well as classifications of the responses as 'open,' 'closed,' or 'continuing.' Appendix C details the Panel's activities during the reporting period.

Source record↗

The "Programmatics" of the ISS Crewmembers' Twelve Month Mission

The mission duration for crewmembers' stay on the International Space Station (ISS) has historically been approximately six months, consistent with the service life of the Soyuz spacecraft that delivers and returns the crewmembers previous. Exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit are expected to require crew durations of a year or more. The ISS Partners have agreed to begin building an experience base of longer crew durations, and have selected two crewmembers to serve on ISS for approximately twelve months, beginning in the Spring of 2015. The preparations for the one NASA and one Roscosmos crewmember require many new considerations for the ISS Program and its Partnership - "programmatic" considerations that are separate from crew health concerns. Since the long-duration crew's Soyuz will need to be replaced halfway through their stay, crew rotation, handover and the Soyuz docking port plan are affected. There is also an opportunity for two short-duration crewmembers to fly during the Soyuz exchange. It is desirable to minimize additional training required of the prime and backup crewmembers; normal crew rotations have a Soyuz crew train as the backup crew, then train as the prime crew. Ground teams will adjust their traditional support to ISS crewmembers, including communication of long-term plans, onboard training, and logistics support. The lessons learned during the preparation and execution of the 12-month mission will support improvements in future ISS long-duration missions and exploration missions.

Hasbrook, Pete↗

EOS Terra Terra Constellation Exit/Future Maneuver Plans Update

This EOS Terra Constellation Exit/Future Maneuver Plans Update presentation will discuss brief history of Terra EOM work; lifetime fuel estimates; baseline vs. proposed plan origin; resultant exit orbit; baseline vs. proposed exit plan; long term orbit altitude; revised lifetime proposal and fallback options.

EOS Terra↗

National facilities study. Volume 5: Space research and development facilities task group

With the beginnings of the U.S. space program, there was a pressing need to develop facilities that could support the technology research and development, testing, and operations of evolving space systems. Redundancy in facilities that was once and advantage in providing flexibility and schedule accommodation is instead fast becoming a burden on scarce resources. As a result, there is a clear perception in many sectors that the U.S. has many space R&D facilities that are under-utilized and which are no longer cost-effective to maintain. At the same time, it is clear that the U.S. continues to possess many space R&D facilities which are the best -- or among the best -- in the world. In order to remain world class in key areas, careful assessment of current capabilities and planning for new facilities is needed. The National Facility Study (NFS) was initiated in 1992 to develop a comprehensive and integrated long-term plan for future aerospace facilities that meets current and projected government and commercial needs. In order to assess the nation's capability to support space research and development (R&D), a Space R&D Task Group was formed. The Task Group was co-chaired by NASA and DOD. The Task Group formed four major, technologically- and functionally- oriented working groups: Human and Machine Operations; Information and Communications; Propulsion and Power; and Materials, Structures, and Flight Dynamics. In addition to these groups, three supporting working groups were formed: Systems Engineering and Requirements; Strategy and Policy; and Costing Analysis. The Space R&D Task Group examined several hundred facilities against the template of a baseline mission and requirements model (developed in common with the Space Operations Task Group) and a set of excursions from the baseline. The model and excursions are described in Volume 3 of the NFS final report. In addition, as a part of the effort, the group examined key strategic issues associated with space R&D facilities planning for the U.S., and these are discussed in Section 4 of this volume.

Source record↗

Medical Response, Search and Recovery during the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia broke apart during atmospheric re-entry on mission STS-107. After an event such as this, with high visibility and international interest, the operational challenge of recovering the crewmembers could not be underestimated. The Space Shuttle Program is organized to respond to a vehicle mishap using the resources of the Mishap Investigation Team (MIT). On the afternoon of Feb. 1, 2003, the MIT deployed to Barksdale Air Force Base (AFB), Louisiana. This location became the investigative center and interim storage location for crewmembers received from the Lufkin, Texas Disaster Field Office (DFO). The Lufkin DFO served as the primary area for all operations, including staging assets and deploying field teams for search, recovery and security of crewmember remains. More than 2,000 people from numerous organizations were involved with the recovery of the crew. All seven crewmembers of STS-107 were recovered and ceremonial last rights were administered. Astronaut and military personnel escorted the crew with honor to the MIT at Barksdale AFB, Louisiana. At Barksdale AFB a temporary morgue was established in an aircraft hangar and operated for approximately two weeks during which time coordination with the DFO field recovery teams, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) medical personnel, and the crew surgeons was on going. Families of crewmembers and NASA management were notified daily of the current findings. Working under the leadership of the MIT Lead, the medical team developed and executed a short-term plan to identify and relocate the crew with a military honor guard and protocol to the medical examiner at the Armed Forces Port Mortuary, Dover AFB, Delaware. After operations at Barksdale AFB were concluded the medical team transitioned back to Houston and a long-term plan was developed and implemented which involved the Air Force Mortuary Affairs at Randolph AFB, Texas. This plan was coordinated with search teams in the field, Barksdale AFB Mortuary Affairs, KSC security, AFIP, and the crew surgeons at JSC.

Stepaniak, Philip C.↗

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Grid Resilience: GCAM-to-PCM Scoping

Deep decarbonization towards a net-zero emissions future and the associated growth in power demand, renewables, and changes in water availability will require significant evolution in grid planning. Many obstacles threaten the viability of near-term generation capacity build out, including the need for large-scale transmission expansion. Current very-long term planning tools do not adequately model physical representations of economic dispatch and system topology down to inter- and intra-regional transmission and distribution infrastructure. This project attempts to fill that gap.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Project Prometheus

Project Prometheus will enable a new paradigm in the scientific exploration of the Solar System. The proposed JIMO mission will start a new generation of missions characterized by more maneuverability, flexibility, power and lifetime. Project Prometheus organization is established at NASA Headquarters: 1.Organization established to carry out development of JIMO, nuclear power (radioisotope), and nuclear propulsion research. 2.Completed broad technology and national capacity assessments to inform decision making on planning and technology development. 3.Awarded five NRA s for nuclear propulsion research. 4.Radioisotope power systems in development, and Plutonium-238 being purchased from Russia. 5.Formulated science driven near-term and long-term plan for the safe utilization of nuclear propulsion based missions. 6.Completed preliminary studies (Pre-Phase A) of JIMO and other missions. 7.Initiated JIMO Phase A studies by Contractors and NASA.

Johnson, Steve↗

Flight software issues in onboard automated planning: lessons learned on EO-1

This paper focuses on the onboard planner and scheduler CASPER, whose core planning engine is based on the ground system ASPEN. Given the challenges of developing flight software, we discuss several of the issues encountered in preparing the planner for flight, including reducing the code image size, determining what data to place within the engineering telemetry packet, and performing long term planning.

planning↗

The use of price-based demand response as a resource in electricity system planning

Utilities have conducted IRP for decades to consider both supply- and demand-side resources to meet bulk power system needs. More recently, an increasing number of states are requiring regulated utilities to file plans that identify distribution system needs, including DERs that can avoid or defer certain types of traditional utility investments cost-effectively. Price-based demand response (DR) is an underutilized resource that could substantially contribute to load flexibility. We find that evaluation of price-based DR as a solution to meet identified electricity system needs is uncommon at both planning processes. Where price-based DR is considered as a solution, methodologies are often deficient in the characterization and treatment of this resource. Based on our analysis of utility filings and state requirements, this brief provides recommendations for improving consideration of price-based DR in the context of long-term planning for bulk power and distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Long duration battery sizing, siting, and operation under wildfire risk using progressive hedging

Battery sizing and siting problems are computationally challenging due to the need to make long-term planning decisions that are cognizant of short-term operational decisions. This paper considers sizing, siting, and operating batteries in a power grid to maximize their benefits, including price arbitrage and load shed mitigation, during both normal operations and periods with high wildfire ignition risk. Here we formulate a multi-scenario optimization problem for long duration battery storage while considering the possibility of load shedding during Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events that de-energize lines to mitigate severe wildfire ignition risk. To enable a computationally scalable solution of this problem with many scenarios of wildfire risk and power injection variability, we develop a customized temporal decomposition method based on a progressive hedging framework. Extending traditional progressive hedging techniques, we consider coupling in both placement variables across all scenarios and state-of-charge variables at temporal boundaries. This enforces consistency across scenarios while enabling parallel computations despite both spatial and temporal coupling. The proposed decomposition facilitates efficient and scalable modeling of a full year of hourly operational decisions to inform the sizing and siting of batteries. With this decomposition, we model a year of hourly operational decisions to inform optimal battery placement for a 240-bus WECC model in under 70 min of wall-clock time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗