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NASA NTRS2002

Long-Term Simulation of Dust Distribution with the GOCART Model: Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Global distribution of aeolian dust is simulated from 1981 to 1996 with the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The results are assessed with in-situ measurements and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol products. The annual budget over the different continents and oceans are analyzed. It is found that there is a maximum of 25% difference of global annual emission from the minimum in 1996 to the maximum in 1988. There is a downward trend of dust emission over Africa and East Asia, of 6 and 2 Tg/yr, respectively. The inter-annual variability of dust distribution is analyzed over the North Atlantic and Africa. It is found that in winter most of the North Atlantic and Africa dust loading is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The GOCART model indicates that a controlling factor of such correlation can be attributed to dust emission from the Sahel. The Bodele depression is the major dust source in winter and its inter-annual variability is highly correlated with the NAO. However, it is not possible to conclude without further analysis that the North Atlantic Oscillation is forcing the inter-annual variability of dust emission and in-turn dust concentration over the North Atlantic.

Ginoux, P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The detection and interpretation of long-term changes in ozone from space

Long-term measurements of backscattered ultraviolet radiances, now being acquired by orbiting monochromators, will provide the basis for seeking trends in atmospheric ozone. The unambiguous detection of ozone trends on decadal time scales demands a data set that is essentially free of instrument drifts. Periodic flights of an ultraviolet monochromator on the space shuttle will provide an independent means of evaluating the long-term stability of identical instruments operating on free-flying satellites. A successful calibration of the free-flying sensors using the shuttle instrument places strict demands on calibration repeatability from one flight to the next. In addition, spatial and temporal variability in cloud cover could pose further complications in carrying out these in-flight calibrations.

Frederick, John E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The detection and interpretation of long-term changes in ozone from space

Frederick, John E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Stratospheric water vapor variability for Washington, DC/Boulder, CO - 1964-82

Measurements for Washington, DC and Boulder, CO are combined to provide a time series of midlatitude stratospheric water vapor data for the period 1964-82. The mean concentration for the data period is shown to be nearly constant with altitude for the low stratospheric layer between 16-22 km with a mass mixing ratio for the layer of 2.5-2.6 ppmm. Above 22 km the mixing ratio increases slightly with altitude. Evident in the 60 mb level time series is an annual cycle, a quasi-biennial cycle and a long-term nonlinear trend. The quasi-biennial cycle in water vapor at midlatitudes is consistent with variations in tropical stratosphere zonal winds and temperature and total ozone and suggests a modulation of the Hadley cell circulation. The long-term trend shows mixing ratio increasing during the 1960s and decreasing in the 1970s after 1972.

Mastenbrook, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An approach to the detection of long-term trends in upper stratospheric ozone from space

A central problem in the detection of long-term trends in the upper stratospheric ozone from orbiting remote sensors involves the separation of instrument drifts from true geophysical changes. Periodic flights of a Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet radiometer (SSBUV) on the Space Shuttle will allow the detection of drifts in optically identical sensors (SBUV/2) carried on operational satellites. A detailed simulation of the SSBUV and SBUV/2 datasets defines the accuracy that can be attained by the in-orbit calibration procedure. The repeatability of the SSBUV calibration from one flight to the next is the most critical variable in the analysis. A repeatability near + or - 1.0 percent is essential for detection and correction of drifts in the SBUV/2 radiance measurements. The simulations show that true geophysical trends in backscattered radiance can be inferred to an accuracy of approximately + or - 1.0 percent per decade when SSBUV flies approximately once per year and provides a precise calibration correction to the SBUV/2 dataset over a full decade.

Frederick, John E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Instrument characterization for the detection of long-term changes in stratospheric ozone - An analysis of the SBUV/2 radiometer

The scientific objective of unambiguously detecting subtle global trends in upper stratospheric ozone requires that one maintains a thorough understanding of the satellite-based remote sensors intended for this task. The instrument now in use for long term ozone monitoring is the SBUV/2 being flown on NOAA operational satellites. A critical activity in the data interpretation involves separating small changes in measurement sensitivity from true atmospheric variability. By defining the specific issues that must be addressed and presenting results derived early in the mission of the first SBUV/2 flight model, this work serves as a guide to the instrument investigations that are essential in the attempt to detect long-term changes in the ozone layer.

Frederick, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Solar irradiance variability from modern measurements

Direct measurements from satellites of the solar 'constant' (the total irradiance at mean sun-earth distance) during more than ten years show variations over time scales from minutes to years and decades. At high frequencies, solar oscillations contribute to the variance. The most important influences are related to solar activity: during the passage of active regions on the solar disk (sunspots and faculae) changes of a few 0.1 percent lasting for several days are observed. The effects of spots can be well reproduced by the projected sunspot index, whereas the influence of faculae have to be modeled from proxy data like the Ca-K plage index or the He I index. Long-term trends are detected which are connected to the 11-yr solar activity cycle.

Froehlich, C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Near-Simultaneous Spectroscopic and Broadband Polarimetric Observations of Be Stars

Near simultaneous optical spectroscopic (on four nights) and broadband linear continuum (B, V, R, and I bands) polarimetric (on seven nights) observations of 29 Be stars were carried out during 1993 November-December. The program Be stars displayed wavelength dependence of intrinsic polarizations with no frequency dependence of polarimetric position angles. Some of the Be stars displayed long-term polarization variability. The Be and Be-shell stars could not be distinguished from one another solely on the basis of their polarization values. Full widths at half-maximum of the H.alpha profiles and the intrinsic linear continuum polarizations are closely correlated with the projected rotational velocities of the program stars. Photospheric-absorption-corrected equivalent widths of H.alpha profiles [W(alpha)] and the radii of H.alpha-emitting or -absorbing envelopes (R(sub e) or R(sub a)) are nonlinearly correlated with the intrinsic continuum polarizations of these stars. However, W(alpha) and R(sub e) are linearly correlated. With large uncertainties, there is a trend of spectral dependence of polarization. Detailed discussion of these results is presented in this paper.

Ghosh, K.↗

NASA NTRS1999

"Novel Techniques in Non-Stationary Analysis of Rotorcraft Vibration Signitures"

This research effort produced new methods to analyze the performance of linear predictors that track non-stationary processes. Specifically, prediction methods have been applied to the vibration pattern of rotorcraft drivetrains. This analysis is part or a larger rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring System (HUMS) that can diagnose immediate failures of the subsystems, as indicated by abrupt change in the vibration signature, and prognosticate future health, by examining the vibration patterns against long-term trends. This problem is described by a earlier joint paper co-authored by members of the funding agency and the recipient institutions prior to this grant effort. Specific accomplishments under this grant include the following: (1) Definition of a framework for analysis of non-stationary time-series estimation using the coefficients of an adaptive filter. (2) Description of a novel method of combining short-term predictor error and long-term regression error to analyze the performance of a non-stationary predictor. (3) Formulation of a multi-variate probability density function that quantifies the performance of a adaptive predictor by using the short- and long-term error variables in a Gamma function distribution. and (4) Validation of the mathematical formulations with empirical data from NASA flight tests and simulated data to illustrate the utility beyond the domain of vibrating machinery.

Meng, Teresa↗

NASA NTRS1995

Long-term total solar irradiance variability during sunspot cycle 22

Total solar irradiance measurements from the 1984-1993 Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) active cavity radiometer and 1978-1993 Nimbus 7 transfer cavity radiometer spacecraft experiments are analyzed to detect the presence of 11-, 22-, and 80-year irradiance variability components. The analyses confirmed the existence of a significant 11-year irradiance variability component, associated with solar magnetic activity and the sunspot cycle. The analyses also suggest the presence of a 22- or 80-year variability component. The earlier Nimbus 7 and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft irradiance measurements decreased approximately 1.2 and 1.3 W/sq m, respectively, between 1980 and 1986. The Nimbus 7 values increased 1.2 W/sq m between 1986 and 1989. The ERBS irradiance measurements increased 1.3 W/sq m during 1986-1989, and then decreased 0.4 W/sq m (at an annual rate of 0.14 W/sq. m/yr) during 1990-1993. Considering the correlations between ERBS, Nimbus 7, and SMM irradiance trends and solar magnetic activity, the total solar irradiance should decrease to minimum levels by 1997 as solar activity decreases to minimum levels, and then increase to maximum levels by the year 2000 as solar activity rises. The ERBS measurements yielded 165.4 +/- 0.7 W/sq m as the mean irradiance value with measurement accuracies and precisions of 0.2% and 0.02%, respectively. The ERBS mean irradiance value is within 0.2% of the 1367.4, 1365.9, and 1366.9 W/sq m mean values for the SMM, Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), and Space Shuttle Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS 1) Solar Constant (SOLCON) active cavity radiometer spacecraft experiments, respectively. The Nimbus 7 measurements yielded 1372.1 W/sq m as the mean value with a measurement accuracy of 0.5%. Empirical irradiance model fits, based upon 10.7 -cm solar radio flux (F10) and photometric sunspot index (PSI), were used to assess the quality of the ERBS, Numbus 7, SMM, and the UARS irradiance data sets and to identify irradiance variability trends which may be caused by drifts or shifts in the spacecraft sensor responses. Comparisons among the fits and measured irradiances indicate that the Nimbus 7 radiometer response shifted by a total of 0.8 W/sq m between September 1989 and April 1990 and that the ERBS and UARS radiometers each drifted approximately 0.5 W/sq m during the first 5 months in orbit.

Lee, Robert B., III↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Updated Umkehr Ozone Retrieval Algorithm and its Validation against Satellite Data

Improvements to the Umkehr ozone profile retrieval algorithm have been developed and are now being evaluated. The updated algorithm is able to simulate observations more accurately and provides data output that is easier to analyze. Among the new diagnostic capabilities that the updated algorithm provides is the averaging kernel (AK) method. The AK approach allows studying how the algorithm responds when a small perturbation is made in a particular layer of the atmosphere [Rodgers 1976, 1990]. We will use the AK method to define precisely what Umkehr should measure given a set of profiles measured by other platforms. This method allows us to compare trends and offsets in data more accurately than it has been done in the past. The updated Umkehr retrievals will be validated against SAGE II ozone profiles as well as SSBUV ozone profile data. We will discuss possible reasons for offset between data and differences in derived ozone profile trends. Considerable variability of the ozone profile within the 10-degree latitude envelope creates noise in the SAGE matching dataset and makes comparisons difficult. To eliminate this problem, the SAGE and Umkehr data had been previously de-seasonalized by subtracting the latitude/season dependent ozone climatology. However, the remaining noise in the ozone residuals was still considerably high for trend analysis and was attributed to longitude variability of SAGE sampling. The new ozone climatology (Labow, NASA) that has longitude dependent ozone variability will be used to minimize contribution of sampling noise in comparisons of satellite and ground station. The comparison of zenith-sky radiances (Umkehr N-value measurements) synthesized for a given set of SAGE profiles will be used to determine whether SAGE-derived N-values agree with the Umkehr-measured N-values. The instrumental effects will be discussed. Both the Umkehr data and SAGE II measurements will be analyzed for their information about ozone variability and loss and recovery rates at the mid- and upper (40 km) levels. The updated long-term Umkehr dataset can be used to provide high quality information for identifying signs of ozone recovery. The long Umkehr historical record can provide additional information for separating the dynamic and chemical mechanisms of depletion, and can help the community better understand climate change effects.

Petropavlovskikh, I.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Long-Term Evaluation of Landsat 9 Oli Data Product Uniformity at Focal Plane Module-Boundaries Using Earth Scenes

The uniformity performance characteristic in remote sensing data products is a metric that helps evaluate how an image accurately represents radiometric responses to geophysical variability at the Earth’s surface or within the atmosphere. These uniformity attributes are used in Earth remote sensing science applications such as investigating water quality, land-cover/land-use classifications, and crop health assessments. To ensure these applications perform effectively, it is crucial to maintain and regularly assess the uniformity of calibrated remote sensing data products. In the Landsat missions, data from the onboard radiometric reference Solar diffuser device are used as the standard approach to derive the calibration parameters, ensuring the maintenance of both absolute radiance and radiometric uniformity through quarterly updates. This publication presents an alternative approach that leverages Earth scene data to assess the on-orbit uniformity performance of the Landsat 9 (L9) mission. The analysis characterizes uniformity at a specific set of spatial positions (the focal-plane boundary zones) that are intrinsic to the Operational Land Imager (OLI) focal plane design. By employing these Earth data statistics, the article further explores the temporal trends in the radiometric uniformity results. The results shown in this article demonstrate that for pushbroom imaging design systems with staggered sensor chip focal plane architectures, the co-registered pixels, i.e., overlapping measurements of the same ground target viewed by different detectors, offer a self-contained mechanism for assessing product uniformity. Remarkably, this alternative approach achieves a level of radiometric quality comparable to that delivered by a stable, well-characterized onboard Solar diffuser calibration device. The findings demonstrate the potential and capability of such Earth scene statistics in maintaining radiometric uniformity in calibrated data products to better than 1% (1-sigma) throughout the mission’s operational lifetime.

trend↗

NASA NTRS2003

Earth System Dynamics: The Determination and Interpretation of the Global Angular Momentum Budget using the Earth Observing System

The objective of this investigation has been to examine the mass and momentum exchange between the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The investigation has focused on changes in the Earth's gravity field, its rotation rate, atmospheric and oceanic circulation, global sea level change, ice sheet change, and global ground water circulation observed by contemporary sensors and models. The primary component of the mass exchange is water. The geodetic observables provided by these satellite sensors are used to study the transport of water mass in the hydrological cycle from one component of the Earth to another, and they are also used to evaluate the accuracy of models. As such, the investigation is concerned with the overall global water cycle. This report provides a description of scientific, educational and programmatic activities conducted during the period July 1, 1999 through June 30,2000. Research has continued into measurements of time-varying gravity and its relationship to Earth rotation. Variability of angular momentum and the related excitation of polar motion and Earth rotation have been examined for the atmosphere and oceans at time-scales of weeks to several years. To assess the performance of hydrologic models, we have compared geodetic signals derived from them with those observed by satellites. One key component is the interannual mass variability of the oceans obtained by direct observations from altimetry after removing steric signals. Further studies have been conducted on the steric model to quantify its accuracy at global and basin-scales. The results suggest a significant loss of water mass from the Oceans to the land on time-scales longer than 1-year. These signals are not reproduced in any of the models, which have poorly determined interannual fresh water fluxes. Output from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model testing long-term climate change hypotheses has been compared to simulated errors from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Results indicate that GRACE will be able to observe seasonal signals at half-wavelengths ranging from 1000 to 10000 km, and may be able to observe secular trends at half- wavelengths of greater than 2000-3000 km for soil moisture and snow depth if they are as large as some of the climate experiments predict.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

Interannual variability in stratiform cloudiness and sea surface temperature

Marine stratiform cloudiness (MSC)(stratus, stratocumulus, and fog) is widespread over subtropical oceans west of the continents and over midlatitude oceans during summer, the season when MSC has maximum influence on surface downward radiation and is most influenced by boundary-layer processes. Long-term datasets of cloudiness and sea surface teperature (SST) from surface observations from 1952 to 1981 are used to examine interannual variations in MSC and SST. Linear correlations of anomalies in seasonal MSC amount with seasonal SST anomalies are negative and significant in midlatitude and eastern subtropical oceans, especially during summer. Significant negative correlations between SST and nimbostratus and nonprecipitating midlevel cloudiness are also observed at midlatitudes during summer, suggesting that summer storm tracks shift from year to year following year-to-year meridional shifts in the SST gradient. Over the 30-yr period, there are significant upward trends in MSC amount over the northern midlatitude oceans and a significant downward trend off the coast of California. The highest correlations and trends occur where gradients in MSC and SST are strongest. During summer, correlations between SST and MSC anomalies peak at zero lag in midlatitudes where warm advection prevails, but SST lags MSC in subtropical regions where cold advection predominates. This difference is attributed to a tendency for anomalies in latent heat flux to compensate anomalies in surface downward radiation in warm advection regions but not in cold advection regions.

Norris, Joel R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Welcome to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise

There are strong scientific indications that natural change in the Earth system is being accelerated by human intervention. As a result, planet Earth faces the possibility of rapid environmental changes that would have a profound impact on all nations. However, we do not fully understand either the short-term effects of our activities, or their long-term implications - many important scientific questions remain unanswered. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working with the national and international scientific communities to establish a sound scientific basis for addressing these critical issues through research efforts coordinated under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, and the World Climate Research Program. The Earth Science Enterprise is NASA's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise will use space- and surface-based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. The space-based components will provide a constellation of satellites to monitor the Earth from space. A major component of the Earth Science Enterprise is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The overall objective of the EOS Program is to determine the extent, causes, and regional consequences of global climate change. EOS will provide sustained space-based observations that will allow researchers to monitor climate variables over time to determine trends. A constellation of EOS satellites will acquire global data, beginning in 1998 and extending well into the 21st century.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1997

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

Potter, C.↗

NASA NTRS2000

TRMM Surface Backscatter Measurements - Temporal and Spatial Analysis: Inter-Comparison with NSCAT

Global rainfall is the primary redistributor of earth's energy by the process of latent heat release. This forms the main driving force for the tropical circulation, which in turn impacts the global circulation .through transient events-such as El Nino. Hence, more precise and long-term time series of the rainfall and its variability is crucial to the understanding and prediction of the global climate and climate change. The Precipitation Radar (PR) abroad the US/Japan Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is the first radar ever launched into space that measures detailed vertical profiles of rain intensity over the tropics. One of the challenges in estimating rainfall from spaceborne radars is the presence of attenuation at frequencies, such as 14 GHz of the TRMM PR and future planned systems at this and higher frequencies. A common approach in current rainfall retrieval algorithms is to employed the path integrated attenuation (PIA) as a constraint to the retrieval, and hence overcome errors in the radar calibration or in the assumed rainfall parameters. PIA can either be derived from a radiometer or from the surface reference technique, in which a clear air radar measurement is compared with the measurement in the raining area. The current TRMM 2A21 PIA data product makes use of both a temporal and spatial clear air database for comparison to rainy measurements. In this paper we present results from analysis of TRMM surface backscatter cross-section (sigmaO) measurements from Nov 97-Feb99, and a comparison with sigmaO measurements obtained by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) between Sept96-June97. Measurements for a given month from both instruments are compiled on a 1 deg. (lat.) x 1 deg. (lon.) x 1 hr. grid. This enables TRMM--NSCAT comparison and the investigation of seasonal and diurnal trends in both data sets. From preliminary analysis of TRMM sigmaO's we have decided not to treat the ocean as a single homogeneous region but to select a number of ocean sub-regions and individually analyze their trends. Likewise, and in a similar approach to previous studies of Seasat over-land data, we have selected a number of over-land regions for study. From said sigmaO maps and regional trend analysis we investigate possible sources of trends and variability. In addition, we study the effects of TRMM PR sensitivity through the PR "possible rain" class. Given NSCAT's inability to flag rain contaminated measurements we are able to gauge the impact of rain contamination on NSCAT monthly sigmaO maps, using TRMM measurements. The research described in this paper was carried out by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S.A.

Im, Eastwood↗