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DOE OSTI2023

Identifying biomass yield potential of tetra, hexa, and octoploid prairie cordgrass populations grown on marginal lands

As the demand for renewable energy sources with reduced carbon emissions to the atmosphere increases, bioenergy crops remain an attractive alternative to fossil fuels. Another appeal of bioenergy crops is the potential utilization of marginal lands not suitable for food crops. Prairie cordgrass is a perennial warm season polyploid grass species being considered as a bioenergy crop that also exhibits a high tolerance for salinity and flooding. The ploidy level of prairie cordgrass has previously been suggested to correlate with agronomic traits. However, little is known about the agricultural performance of prairie cordgrass on marginal lands and if a correlation of ploidy level to stress tolerance exists. In this experiment, the productivity of tetraploids, hexaploids, and octoploids was investigated when grown on three different marginal sites including waterlogged, saline, and low-nutrient gravelly soils. Here we found that prairie cordgrass populations annually produced dry biomass on a wet marginal site comparable to normal cropland. However, the productivity was remarkedly decreased at both a salt-affected site and a limestone mine reclamation site. We were unable to conclude that different ploidy levels affected the biomass yield of prairie cordgrass grown under abiotic stress. However, there was a differential response of populations to various types of marginal sites. Finally, these results indicate potential genetic resources for developing breeding targets and identifying mechanisms of abiotic stress tolerance. Moreover, we highlight the need to generate diverse ploidy levels of prairie cordgrass in the same genetic backgrounds for future testing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Margin Assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Class A Primary Load Design Rules

This report provides a comprehensive margin assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, Subpart B rules for the design of high temperature reactor components against load controlled stress limits. These rules, often called the Code primary load design rules, provide protection against creep rupture and plastic collapse under steady conditions. The method adopted here is to compare the deterministic ASME design life, according to the primary load design rules, against the expected, statistical service life of the component, considering creep rupture as the relevant failure mode. The report provides the design margin of the ASME rules in terms of the probability of premature failure -- the probability that the component fails in service before reaching the ASME design life. To complete this assessment, the report describes the development of a statistical creep life assessment procedure accounting for variations in the component loading, material creep rate, and the material rupture time. This includes a novel method for correlating creep rupture data using a Gaussian process accounting for heat-to-heat variation in the Larson-Miller time-temperature parameter. The report applies the complete margin assessment process to quantify the design margin inherent in the ASME primary load design rules as a function of temperature for relevant component geometries and materials. The overall conclusion is that the ASME rules are conservative, providing designs with very small probability of premature failure, but some optimization of the Code design rules is possible to provide a more uniform design margin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Application of matrix singular value properties for evaluating gain and phase margins of multiloop systems

A stability margin evaluation method in terms of simultaneous gain and phase changes in all loops of a multiloop system is presented. A universal gain-phase margin evaluation diagram is constructed by generalizing an existing method using matrix singular value properties. Using this diagram and computing the minimum singular value of the system return difference matrix over the operating frequency range, regions of guaranteed stability margins can be obtained. Singular values are computed for a wing flutter suppression and a drone lateral attitude control problem. The numerical results indicate that this method predicts quite conservative stability margins. In the second example if the eigenvalue magnitude is used instead of the singular value, as a measure of nearness to singularity, more realistic stability margins are obtained. However, this relaxed measure generally cannot guarantee global stability.

Mukhopadhyay, V.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Dynamical criterion for a marginally unstable, quasi-linear behavior in a two-layer model

A two-layer quasi-geostrophic flow forced by meridional variations in heating can be in regimes ranging from radiative equilibrium to forced geostrophic turbulence. Between these extremes is a regime where the time-mean (zonal) flow is marginally unstable. Using scaling arguments, it is concluded that such a marginally unstable state should occur when a certain parameter, measuring the strength of wave-wave interactions relative to the beta effect and advection by the thermal wind, is small. Numerical simulations support this proposal. A transition from the marginally unstable regime to a more nonlinear regime is then examined through numerical simulations with different radiative forcings. It is found that transition is not caused by secondary instability of waves in the marginally unstable regime. Instead, the time-mean flow can support a number of marginally unstable normal modes. These normal modes interact with each other, and if they are of sufficient amplitude, the flow enters a more nonlinear regime.

Ebisuzaki, W.↗

NASA NTRS2011

On Time Delay Margin Estimation for Adaptive Control and Optimal Control Modification

This paper presents methods for estimating time delay margin for adaptive control of input delay systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent an adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window. The time delay margin of this input delay system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by three methods: Pade approximation, Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and the matrix measure method. These methods are applied to the standard model-reference adaptive control, s-modification adaptive law, and optimal control modification adaptive law. The windowing analysis results in non-unique estimates of the time delay margin since it is dependent on the length of a time window and parameters which vary from one time window to the next. The optimal control modification adaptive law overcomes this limitation in that, as the adaptive gain tends to infinity and if the matched uncertainty is linear, then the closed-loop input delay system tends to a LTI system. A lower bound of the time delay margin of this system can then be estimated uniquely without the need for the windowing analysis. Simulation results demonstrates the feasibility of the bounded linear stability method for time delay margin estimation.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long-Run Marginal CO 2 e Emission Rates for End-Use Electricity Consumption in the State of Washington [Slides]

This analysis contains an estimate of the long-run marginal emission rate for the electric sector in the state of Washington. The long-run marginal emission rate is an estimate of the rate of emissions that would be either induced or avoided by a long-term (i.e., more than several years) change in electrical demand. The metric explicitly takes into account both the underlying evolution of the electric grid, as well as the potential for an incremental change in electrical demand to influence the structural evolution of the grid (i.e., the building and retiring of capital assets, such as generators and transmission lines). It is therefore distinct from the more-commonly-known short-run marginal, which also identifies a marginal emission rate but treats the grid assets as fixed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

A qualitative study of marginalized students’ academic, physical, and social self-efficacy in a multiweek geoscience field program

Undergraduate summer field programs are valuable experiences that can foster or reduce students’ self-efficacy, an important factor in students’ success and retention in geoscience. Growing research findings show that science field experiences can be hostile and unwelcoming to students with marginalized identities, which may negatively impact their self-efficacy in geoscience, a discipline with a dearth of students from underrepresented, marginalized identities. We conducted an interpretive qualitative study examining how summer geoscience field programs affected two undergraduate, marginalized students’ self-efficacy. Adding to existing theoretical explanations of self-efficacy, we identified three types of self-efficacy impacted positively and negatively by geoscience field experiences: academic, physical, and social self-efficacy. We developed a nuanced understanding of the specific field experiences that influenced the ‘ups and downs’ of students’ self-efficacy and, ultimately, their intent in continuing to pursue a geoscience education or career. Despite negative experiences, including gender discrimination, crude sexual jokes, and a lack of belonging, the students described their intent to persist in geoscience. Here, our findings can assist geoscience educators (and others in field-based sciences) to consider experiences that support and hinder marginalized students’ self-efficacy. Also, our findings can guide efforts to improve geoscience field programs to create more inclusive environments.

case study↗

DOE OSTI2024

High temperatures and low soil moisture synergistically reduce switchgrass yields from marginal field sites and inhibit fermentation

‘Marginal lands’ are low productivity sites abandoned from agriculture for reasons such as low or high soil water content, challenging topography, or nutrient deficiency. To avoid competition with crop production, cellulosic bioenergy crops have been proposed for cultivation on marginal lands, however on these sites they may be more strongly affected by environmental stresses such as low soil water content. In this study we used rainout shelters to induce low soil moisture on marginal lands and determine the effect of soil water stress on switchgrass growth and the subsequent production of bioethanol. Five marginal land sites that span a latitudinal gradient in Michigan and Wisconsin were planted to switchgrass in 2013 and during the 2018–2021 growing seasons were exposed to reduced precipitation under rainout shelters in comparison to ambient precipitation. The effect of reduced precipitation was related to the environmental conditions at each site and biofuel production metrics (switchgrass biomass yields and composition and ethanol production). During the first year (2018), the rainout shelters were designed with 60% rain exclusion, which did not affect biomass yields compared to ambient conditions at any of the field sites, but decreased switchgrass fermentability at the Wisconsin Central–Hancock site. In subsequent years, the shelters were redesigned to fully exclude rainfall, which led to reduced biomass yields and inhibited fermentation for three sites. When switchgrass was grown in soils with large reductions in moisture and increases in temperature, the potential for biofuel production was significantly reduced, exposing some of the challenges associated with producing biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass grown under drought conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evidence Theory Representations for Properties Associated With Weak Link/Strong Link Systems, Part 3: Margins for Failure Time and Failure Temperature

The use of evidence theory and associated cumulative plausibility functions (CPFs), cumulative belief functions (CBFs), cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), complementary cumulative plausibility functions (CCPFs), complementary cumulative belief functions (CCBFs), and complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) in the analysis of time and temperature margins associated with loss of assured safety (LOAS) for one weak link (WL)/two strong link (SL) systems is illustrated. Article content includes cumulative and complementary cumulative belief, plausibility, and probability for (i) SL/WL failure time margins defined by (time at which SL failure potentially causes LOAS) – (time at which WL failure potentially prevents LOAS), (ii) SL/WL failure temperature margins defined by (the temperature at which SL failure potentially causes LOAS) – (the temperature at which WL failure potentially prevents LOAS), and (iii) SL/SL failure temperature margins defined by (the temperature at which SL failure potentially causes LOAS) – (the temperature of SL whose failure potentially causes LOAS at the time at which WL failure potentially prevents LOAS).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Average and Marginal Capacity Credit Values of Renewable Energy and Battery Storage in the United States Power System

As deployment of renewable resources and storage continue to significantly grow in the coming decades, these technologies will play increasingly important roles in maintaining power systems' resource adequacy. Few analyses so far offer comprehensive comparisons of forward-looking average and marginal capacity credits of variable renewable energy and storage in the U.S. interconnections across a wide range of possible futures. To fill this research gap, we quantify the average and marginal capacity credits of solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, and batteries between 2026 and 2050 across the U.S power systems to examine the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and trade-offs between these two capacity accreditation approaches. Across technologies, capacity credits of solar PV most clearly follow downward trends over time, reflecting the significant rise in solar PV generation share as the grid decarbonizes. While battery storages' generation shares also rise significantly over time, their capacity credits always remain stably high due to their capabilities to be dispatched strategically during critical periods to maintain reliability. On the other hand, capacity credits of wind technologies in general follow slight upward trends as their generation shares level off. There are strong spatial variabilities of both average and marginal capacity credits across technologies, but capacity credits of solar PV displaying the most obvious spatial patterns with high capacity credits concentrating in wind-rich, solar-poor regions in SPP, PJM, and MISO, suggesting potential reliability benefits of interconnection-wide planning for renewable energy deployments. Additionally, except for offshore wind, average capacity credits of all other renewable technologies tend to be higher than their marginal capacity credits, indicating that existing renewable resources tend to be accredited higher than new resources at almost any time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data from: High temperatures and low soil moisture synergistically reduce switchgrass yields from marginal field sites and inhibit fermentation

‘Marginal lands’ are low productivity sites abandoned from agriculture for reasons such as low or high soil water content, challenging topography, or nutrient deficiency. To avoid competition with crop production, cellulosic bio- energy crops have been proposed for cultivation on marginal lands, however on these sites they may be more strongly affected by environmental stresses such as low soil water content. In this study we used rainout shelters to in- duce low soil moisture on marginal lands and determine the effect of soil water stress on switchgrass growth and the subsequent production of bioetha- nol. Five marginal land sites that span a latitudinal gradient in Michigan and Wisconsin were planted to switchgrass in 2013 and during the 2018–2021 growing seasons were exposed to reduced precipitation under rainout shelters in comparison to ambient precipitation. The effect of reduced precipitation was related to the environmental conditions at each site and biofuel produc- tion metrics (switchgrass biomass yields and composition and ethanol pro- duction). During the first year (2018), the rainout shelters were designed with 60% rain exclusion, which did not affect biomass yields compared to ambient conditions at any of the field sites, but decreased switchgrass fermentability at the Wisconsin Central–Hancock site. In subsequent years, the shelters were redesigned to fully exclude rainfall, which led to reduced biomass yields and inhibited fermentation for three sites. When switchgrass was grown in soils with large reductions in moisture and increases in temperature, the potential for biofuel production was significantly reduced, exposing some of the chal- lenges associated with producing biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass grown under drought conditions.

bioethanol↗

NASA NTRS2024

PRODEM: An Annual Series of Summer DEMs (2019 through 2022) of the Marginal Areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving in response to changing weather, season, climate, and ice dynamics. However, current digital elevation models (DEMs) for the ice sheet are usually based on data from a multi-year period, thus obscuring these changes over time. Here we present four 500 m resolution summer DEMs (PRODEMs) of the Greenland Ice Sheet marginal zone for 2019 through 2022. The PRODEMs cover the marginal zone from the ice edge to 50 km inland, hence capturing all Greenland outlet glaciers. Each PRODEM is based on data fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry using regionally varying kriging of elevation anomalies relative to ArcticDEM. The PRODEMs are validated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and PRODEM19 is further validated against an external data set, showcasing their ability to correctly represent surface elevations within the associated spatially varying prediction uncertainties. We observe a general lowering of surface elevations during the 4-year PRODEM period, but the spatial pattern of change is highly complex and with annual changes superimposed. The PRODEMs enable detailed studies of the marginal ice sheet elevation changes. With their high spatio-temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will be of value to a wide range of researchers and users studying ice sheet dynamics and monitoring how the ice sheet responds to changing environmental conditions. PRODEMs from summer 2019 through 2022 are available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/52WWHG (Winstrup, 2024), and we plan to annually update the product henceforth.

Digital Elevation Models↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic marginalization of N(z) uncertainties in tomographic galaxy surveys

In this paper, we present a new method to marginalize over uncertainties in redshift distributions, N(z), within tomographic cosmological analyses applicable to current and upcoming photometric galaxy surveys. We allow for arbitrary deviations from the best-guess N(z) governed by a general covariance matrix describing the uncertainty in our knowledge of redshift distributions. In principle, this is marginalization over hundreds or thousands of new parameters describing potential deviations as a function of redshift and tomographic bin. However, by linearly expanding the theory predictions around a fiducial model, this marginalization can be performed analytically, resulting in a modified data covariance matrix that effectively downweights the modes of the data vector that are more sensitive to redshift distribution variations. We showcase this method by applying it to the galaxy clustering measurements from the Hyper Suprime-Cam first data release. We illustrate how to marginalize over sample variance of the calibration sample and a large general systematic uncertainty in photometric estimation methods, and explore the impact of priors imposing smoothness in the redshift distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: marginalization over redshift distribution uncertainties using ranking of discrete realizations

ABSTRACT Cosmological information from weak lensing surveys is maximized by sorting source galaxies into tomographic redshift subsamples. Any uncertainties on these redshift distributions must be correctly propagated into the cosmological results. We present hyperrank, a new method for marginalizing over redshift distribution uncertainties, using discrete samples from the space of all possible redshift distributions, improving over simple parametrized models. In hyperrank, the set of proposed redshift distributions is ranked according to a small (between one and four) number of summary values, which are then sampled, along with other nuisance parameters and cosmological parameters in the Monte Carlo chain used for inference. This approach can be regarded as a general method for marginalizing over discrete realizations of data vector variation with nuisance parameters, which can consequently be sampled separately from the main parameters of interest, allowing for increased computational efficiency. We focus on the case of weak lensing cosmic shear analyses and demonstrate our method using simulations made for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that the method can correctly and efficiently marginalize over a wide range of models for the redshift distribution uncertainty. Finally, we compare hyperrank to the common mean-shifting method of marginalizing over redshift uncertainty, validating that this simpler model is sufficient for use in the DES Year 3 cosmology results presented in companion papers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Criticality Safety Margin and Handbook Data: Concepts and Applications [Slides]

At the end of this briefing, personnel should be able to: • Define concepts associated with criticality safety margin • Provide and understand practical applications that illustrate safety margin concepts • Describe how safety margin is addressed in criticality safety evaluations • Improve documentation and communication of safety margin • Connect these concepts to related statements in the ANS-8 Standards • Find numerous applications for handbook data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Perennializing marginal croplands: going back to the future to mitigate climate change with resilient biobased feedstocks

Managing annual row crops on marginally productive croplands can be environmentally unsustainable and result in variable economic returns. Incorporating perennial bioenergy feedstocks into marginally productive cropland can engender ecosystem services and enhance climate resiliency while also diversifying farm incomes. We use one of the oldest bioenergy-specific field experiments in North America to evaluate economically and environmentally sustainable management practices for growing perennial grasses on marginal cropland. This long-term field trial called 9804 was established in 1998 in eastern Nebraska and compared the productivity and sustainability of corn (Zea mays L.)—both corn grain and corn stover—and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) bioenergy systems under different harvest strategies and nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates. This experiment demonstrated that switchgrass, compared to corn, is a reliable and sustainable bioenergy feedstock. This experiment has been a catalyst for other bioenergy projects which have also expanded our understanding of growing and managing bioenergy feedstocks on marginal cropland. We (1) synthesize research from this long-term experiment and (2) provide perspective concerning both the knowledge gained from this experiment and knowledge gaps and how to fill them as well as the role switchgrass will play in the future of bioenergy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1977

Engineering analysis division internal note. OFT-1 margin assessment

The results are documented of an analysis conducted to determine space shuttle vehicle (SSV) subsystem margins for the reference flight profile for the first orbital flight test (OFT-1). In general, the results show increased margins for the OFT-1 indicators when compared to Mission 3A resutls. The inclusion of element and wing aerodynamic variations on OFT-1, in combination with winds and systems dispersions, resulted in the forward Z (FTO1) attach load indicator exceeding specified limits. The inboard and outboard elevon hinge moment margins (9 percent and 3 percent, respectively) on OFT-1 reflect values consistent with the load relief requirements dictated by elevon hinge moment variations. All other structural load indicators for OFT-1 had margins in excess of 10 percent. The SSV first stage stagnation heating indicators for OFT-1 were about 45 percent less than for Mission 3A. The hydraulic systems demands for both missions were essentially the same. The results also show OFT-1 performance requirements from the consideration of winds and dispersions to be approximately 3,300 lbs greater than Mission 3A.

Austin, L. D., Jr.↗