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DOE OSTI2022

Modulation of North Atlantic Polar Low Activity and Associated Flow Patterns by Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are intense maritime mesoscale cyclones that can pose hazards to coastal communities and marine operation in the Arctic. This study examines the impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on PL activity in the subarctic North Atlantic. The 20 days following SSWs are characterized by tropospheric circulation anomalies resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. PL activity decreases significantly over the Labrador Sea, which can be attributed to the infrequent occurrence of low static stability and strong environmental baroclinicity, as well as reduced surface turbulent heat fluxes. These results suggest that a skillful prediction of SSWs can improve the extended-range forecast of PL activity over the Labrador Sea. For the Nordic seas, the results imply that the spatial structure of an SSW event is important for the PL modulation through different tropospheric circulation patterns. Situations with increased PL frequency in the Nordic seas are characterized by SSWs centered close to northern Greenland occurring over a smaller area, and a tropospheric response featuring enhanced cold-air outbreaks over the Norwegian Sea. Conversely, PL activity is suppressed over the Nordic seas when the SSW favors the formation of a tropospheric anticyclone above Greenland and Scandinavia. Significance Statement This study investigates the relationships between polar lows (PLs) and sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) over the subarctic North Atlantic. A better understanding of the effect of SSWs on PL development has the potential to improve extended-range forecasts of PLs. It is shown that SSWs are responsible for the significantly suppressed regional PL activity over the Labrador Sea, suggesting that SSWs can serve as a predictor for the extended-range forecast of PLs over this region. Following SSW events, the thermodynamic state of atmosphere becomes more stable over the Labrador Sea and hinders the convective development of PLs. For the northern Nordic seas, the impacts of SSWs on PL activity are sensitive to the spatial structure of stratospheric warming.

Chang, Chuan-Chieh↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface-based observations of cold-air outbreak clouds during the COMBLE field campaign

Abstract. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) are characterized by extreme air–sea energy exchanges and low-level convective clouds over large areas in the high-latitude oceans. As such, CAOs are an important component of the Earth's climate system. The CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) deployment of the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) provided the first comprehensive view of CAOs using a suite of ground-based observations at the northern coast of Norway. Here, cloud and precipitation observations from 13 CAO cases during COMBLE are analyzed. A vertical air motion retrieval technique is applied to the Ka-band ARM Zenith-pointing Radar (KAZR) observations. The CAO cumulus clouds are characterized by strong updrafts with magnitudes between 2–8 m s−1, vertical extents of 1–3 km, and horizontal scales of 0.25–3 km. A strong relationship between our vertical air velocity retrievals and liquid water path (LWP) measurements is found. The LWP measurements exceed 1 kg m−2 in strong updraft areas, and the vertical extent of the updraft correlates well with the LWP values. The CAO cumulus clouds exhibit eddy dissipation rate values between 10−3 and 10−2 m2 s−3 in the lowest 10 km of the atmosphere, and using a radar Doppler spectra technique, evidence of secondary ice production is found during one of the cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Response of marine post-frontal clouds to Gulf Stream variability

Understanding how Gulf Stream variation influences cloud morphology is critical for evaluating cloud feedback in the western North Atlantic Ocean and beyond, where mesoscale air-sea interactions dominate. This study investigates the impact of altered mean sea surface temperature (SST) and SST gradients on post-frontal cloud characteristics during cold-air outbreaks, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted: a control simulation (default SST), Plus4 (uniform SST increase of 4 K), and Gradplus (SST gradient enhanced by 25 %, centered around mean SST). Results reveal distinctly different responses in boundary layer dynamics and cloud macro-physics. In Plus4, a warmer and moister boundary layer reduces total cloud cover but promotes larger cloud sizes and elongated cloud streets, with diminished liquid water and enhanced ice-phase hydrometeors. Conversely, Gradplus amplifies impacts in the upwind colder SST regions, yielding a drier, colder boundary layer, weaker energy transport, and higher liquid water path but reduced ice water content and cloud lines. Tracer analysis highlights that SST modifications alter airmass sources near cloud tops due to the entrainment of ambient air, with Plus4 amplifying boundary layer contributions to cloud-top regions. These findings underscore the spatially varying effects of SST gradients and mean SST on cloud organization and microphysics, emphasizing the need to resolve ocean-atmosphere coupling in global models to improve the prediction of marine cloud feedback under warming scenarios.

AIR-SEA INTERACTION↗