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At least 55 records · Page 3

ldentifying Episodes of Earth Science Phenomena Using a Big-Data Technology

A significant portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- (or event-) based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. We have constructed a prototype Automated Event Service (AES) system that is used to methodically mine custom-defined events in the reanalysis data sets of atmospheric general circulation models. Our AES will enable researchers to specify their custom, numeric event criteria using a user-friendly web interface to search the reanalysis data sets. Moreover, we have included a social component to enable dynamic formation of collaboration groups for researchers to cooperate on event definitions of common interest and for the analysis of these events. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon (ES phenomenon). A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an El Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon, and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a duration (often finite) and an associated geo-location as a function of time; it's therefore an entity embedded in four-dimensional (4D) spatiotemporal space. Earth Science phenomena with the potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life often rivet the attention of researchers. But, broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger, such as land/sea breezes. Due to Earth System's intricate dynamics, we are continuously discovering novel ES phenomena. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events. This process usually begins by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, as mentioned previously, comprehensive records only exist for a very limited set of high-impact phenomena; aside from these, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. The reason for the lack of comprehensive records for most of the ES phenomena is mainly due to the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property. Thus they are not consistently tracked, monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack precise and/or commonly accepted criteria for definitions. Moreover, various Earth Science observations and data have accumulated to a previously unfathomable volume; NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data, which are steadily increasing. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. We have not only envisioned AES as an environment for identifying customdefined events but also aspired for it to be an interactive environment with quick turnaround time for revisions of query criteria and results, as well as a collaborative environment where geographically distributed experts may work together on the same phenomena. A Big Data technology is thus required for the realization of such a system. In the following, we first introduce the technology selected for AES in the next section. We then demonstrate the utility of AES using a use case, Blizzard, before we conclude.

Kuo, Kwo-Sen↗

Geostar – a ‘Shovel Ready’ Geostationary Microwave Sounder

A geostationary microwave sounder, capable of providing temperature, water vapor, clouds, precipitation, and wind in the presence of clouds, convection and precipitation, will add tremendously to our ability to observe dynamic atmospheric phenomena, such as hurricanes and severe storms, monsoonal moisture flow, atmospheric rivers, etc. Such a sensor is now feasible, enabled by technology that has been developed under NASA’s Instrument Incubator Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Geostationary Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiometer (GeoSTAR) is essentially an “AMSU in GEO”, i.e. it has similar capabilities as AMSU would have if it were operating on a geostationary satellite, but with similar spatial resolution. GEO orbits are almost 50 times higher than the LEO orbits that current AMSUs operate from, and the corresponding scaling of aperture size required to maintain spatial resolution has stymied the development of such a sensor for many decades. The aperture synthesis approach implemented with GeoSTAR finally overcomes that obstacle, and the large number of microwave receivers and associated electronics required is made possible with new technology that has now been developed. A low-cost mission operating as a hosted payload on a commercial communications satellite has been designed and is “shovel-ready”. The objectives of such a mission could be to advance our understanding and modeling of storm processes that control rapid or explosive intensification of hurricanes, mesoscale convective systems, and extratropical cyclones, or it could be to support operational weather forecasting and nowcasting. Retrieval of temperature and water vapor profiles is possible even in the presence of moderate precipitation, and with the ability to derive horizontal wind vectors by tracking water vapor features, a rich set of parameters measuring the thermodynamics, dynamics and convection and sampled every 15 minutes, will enable significant progress in storm science and forecasting.

Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H↗

Fine-Scale Comparison of TOMS Total Ozone Data with Model Analysis of an Intense Midwestern Cyclone

High-resolution (approx. 40 km) along-track total column ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are compared with a high-resolution mesoscale numerical model analysis of an intense cyclone in the Midwestern United States. Total ozone increased by 100 DU (nearly 38%) as the TOMS instrument passed over the associated tropopause fold region. Complex structure is seen in the meteorological fields and compares well with the total ozone observations. Ozone data support the meteorological analysis showing that stratospheric descent was confined to levels above approx. 600 hPa; significant positive potential vorticity at lower levels is attributable to diabetic processes. Likewise, meteorological fields show that two pronounced ozone streamers extending north and northeastward into Canada at high levels are not bands of stratospheric air feeding into the cyclone; one is a channel of exhaust downstream from the system, and the other apparently previously connected the main cyclonic circulation to a southward intrusion of polar stratospheric air and advected eastward as the cut-off cyclone evolved. Good agreement between small-scale features in the model output and total ozone data underscores the latter's potential usefulness in diagnosing upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric dynamics and kinematics.

Olsen, Mark A.↗

The Impact of TRMM on Mesoscale Model Simulation of Super Typhoon Paka

Tropical cyclone Paka formed during the first week of December 1997 and underwent three periods of rapid intensification over the following two weeks. During one of these periods, which initiated early on December 10, Paka's Dvorak-measured windspeed increased from 23 to 60 m/s over a 48-hr period. On December 18, during the last rapid deepening episode, Paka became a supertyphoon with a maximum wind speed of about 80 m/s. In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique (135, 45 and 15 km horizontal resolution) will be used to simulate supertyphoon Paka. We performed two runs initialized with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data sets. The first GEOS data set does not incorporate either TRMM (tropical rainfall measuring mission satellite) or SSM/I (sensor microwave imager) observed rainfall fields into the GEOS's assimilation system while the second one does. Preliminary results show that the MM5 simulated surface pressure deepened by more than 25 mb (45 km resolution domain) in the run initialized with the GEOS data set incorporating TRMM and SSM/I derived rainfall, compared to the one initialized without. However, the track and precipitation patterns are quite similar between the runs. In our presentation, we will show the impact of TRMM rainfall upon the MM5 simulation of Paka at various horizontal resolutions. We will also examine the physical processes associated with initial explosive development by comparing MM5 simulated rainfall and latent heat release. In addition, budget (vorticity, PV, momentum and heat) calculations and sensitivity tests will be performed to examine the upper-tropospheric and SST mechanisms responsible for the explosive development of Paka.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Objectively Identifying Transverse Cirrus Bands in Tropical Cyclones using a Convolutional Neural Network

Transverse cirrus bands (TCBs) are bands of upper-level clouds regularly seen in mesoscale and synoptic-scale weather systems. In tropical cyclones, their appearance has been subjectively linked to intensification and the diurnal cycle. However, these hypothesized relationships have not been rigorously tested due to the subjective nature of TCBs in satellite images. A machine learning technique that successfully identifies TCBs objectively in imagery from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) has been developed to solve this problem. The technique uses a U-Net convolutional neural network (CNN) that assigns a probability to each pixel in an image based on the likelihood of the pixel being associated with a TCB. Using the U-Net CNN, a database of TCBs from 2019 to 2022 was developed for the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin by defining an appropriate probability threshold that defines the difference between TCB and non-TCB pixels. This threshold is where the Jaccard score, calculated using manually identified TCBs and model identified TCBs, is maximized. Statistics for TCB occurrence will also be presented, including the relationships between TCBs and storm relative motion, shear relative direction, cardinal direction, tropical cyclone intensity, tropical cyclone intensification rates, and time of day.

John Mark Mayhall↗

International Conference on Mesoscale Precipitation: Hydrologic and Meteorological Aspects, 3rd, College Station, TX, Feb. 27-Mar. 1, 1991, Proceedings

Papers presented in this volume discuss a mechanism causing mesoscale organizations of precipitation in midlatitude cyclones, the spatial variability of summer Florida precipitation and its impact on microwave radiometer rainfall-measurement systems, the relation between the mean areal rainfall and the fractional area where it rains above a given threshold, and a possible explanation for low correlation dimension estimates for the atmosphere. Attention is also given to a physically based simulation of radar rainfall data using a space-time rainfall model, the predictability of mesoscale rainfall in the tropics, and an intercomparison of tree satellite infrared rainfall techniques over Japan and surrounding waters. Other papers are on an evaluation of sampling errors of precipitation from spaceborne and ground sensors, an approach to the estimation of the areal rain-rate distribution from spaceborne radar by the use of multiple thresholds, and a comparison of two satellite-based rainfall algorithms using Pacific atoll raingage data.

Valdes, Juan B.↗

Objectively Identifying Transverse Cirrus Bands in Tropical Cyclones using a Convolutional Neural Network

Transverse cirrus bands (TCBs) are bands of upper-level clouds that are regularly seen in mesoscale and synoptic-scale weather systems. In tropical cyclones, their appearance has been subjectively linked to intensification and the diurnal cycle, but these hypothesized relationships have not been rigorously tested due to the difficulty of objectively identifying TCBs in satellite images. This presentation describes a machine learning technique that successfully identifies TCBs in imagery from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager. The technique uses a convolutional neural network (CNN) that assigns a probability of each pixel in the image being associated with a TCB. Using the CNN, a database of TCBs from 2018 to 2022 was developed for the Atlantic basin. Statistics using this database will be presented, including the relationship between TCBs and deep-layer vertical wind shear, intensity change, and the TC diurnal cycle.

John Mark Mayhall↗

Results of the US contribution to the joint US/USSR Bering Sea experiment

The atmospheric circulation which occurred during the Bering Sea Experiment, 15 February to 10 March 1973, in and around the experiment area is analyzed and related to the macroscale morphology and dynamics of the sea ice cover. The ice cover was very complex in structure, being made up of five ice types, and underwent strong dynamic activity. Synoptic analyses show that an optimum variety of weather situations occurred during the experiment: an initial strong anticyclonic period (6 days), followed by a period of strong cyclonic activity (6 days), followed by weak anticyclonic activity (3 days), and finally a period of weak cyclonic activity (4 days). The data of the mesoscale test areas observed on the four sea ice option flights, and ship weather, and drift data give a detailed description of mesoscale ice dynamics which correlates well with the macroscale view: anticyclonic activity advects the ice southward with strong ice divergence and a regular lead and polynya pattern; cyclonic activity advects the ice northward with ice convergence, or slight divergence, and a random lead and polynya pattern.

Campbell, W. J.↗

The impact of dynamic data assimilation on the numerical simulations of the QE II cyclone and an analysis of the jet streak influencing the precyclogenetic environment

A mesoscale numerical model is combined with a dynamic data assimilation via Newtonian relaxation, or 'nudging', to provide initial conditions for subsequent simulations of the QE II cyclone. Both the nudging technique and the inclusion of supplementary data are shown to have a large positive impact on the simulation of the QE II cyclone during the initial phase of rapid cyclone development. Within the initial development period (from 1200 to 1800 UTC 9 September 1978), the dynamic assimilation of operational and bogus data yields a coherent two-layer divergence pattern that is not well defined in the model run using only the operational data and static initialization. Diagnostic analysis based on the simulations show that the initial development of the QE II storm between 0000 UTC 9 September and 0000 UTC 10 September was embedded within an indirect circulation of an intense 300-hPa jet streak, was related to baroclinic processes extending throughout a deep portion of the troposphere, and was associated with a classic two-layer mass-divergence profile expected for an extratropical cyclone.

Manobianco, John↗

Session on validation of coupled models

The session on validation of coupled models is reviewed. The current use of a mesoscale model with a grid size of 20-km during STORM-FEST in 1992 has proven to be extremely valuable. The availability of forecast products at a much higher temporal and spatial resolution was very helpful for mesoscale forecasting, mission planning, and the guidance of research aircraft. Recent numerical simulation of ocean cyclones and mesoscsle convective systems using nonhydrostatic cloud/mesoscale models with a grid size as small as 2-km have demonstrated the potential of these models for predicting mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, hurricane rainbands, mesoscale gravity waves, and mesoscale frontal structures embedded within an extratropical cyclone. Although mesoscale/cloud scale models have demonstrated strong potential for use in operational forecasting, very limited quantitative evaluation (and verification) of these models were performed. As a result, the accuracy, the systematic biases, and the useful forecasts limits were not properly defined for these models. Also, no serious attempts were made to use these models for operational prediction of mesoscale convective systems.

Kuo, Bill↗

Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated with Commercial Aviation Accidents: Hydrostatic Mesobeta Scale Numerical Simulations of Supergradient Wind Flow and Streamwise Ageostrophic Frontogenesis - Part 2

Simulation experiments reveal key processes that organize a hydrostatic environment conducive to severe turbulence. The paradigm requires juxtaposition of the entrance region of a curved jet stream, which is highly subgeostrophic, with the entrance region of a straight jet stream, which is highly supergeostrophic. The wind and mass fields become misphased as the entrance regions converge resulting in the significant spatial variation of inertial forcing, centripetal forcing, and along- and cross-stream pressure gradient forcing over a mesobeta scale region. This results in frontogenesis and the along-stream divergence of cyclonic and convergence of cyclonic ageostrophic vertical vorticity. The centripetally forced mesoscale front becomes the locus of large gradients of ageostrophic vertical vorticity along an overturning isentrope. This region becomes favorable for streamwise vorticity gradient formation enhancing the environment for organization of horizontal vortex tubes in the presence of buoyant forcing.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗

Regional models - Emerging research tools for synoptic meteorologists

A number of regional-scale numerical weather prediction models are discussed together with their application to the study of the structure and the dynamics of mesoscale phenomena. Consideration is given to investigations of natural phenomena (such as midlatitude cyclones and related baroclinic disturbances; upper-level jet-front systems; surface frontal zones, squall lines, and rain bands; mesoscale convective systems; and severe-storm environments) in which two operational models and four research models are used for regional-model studies. It is shown that these models provide investigators with four-dimensional dynamically consistent data sets to supplement and extend those available from observations.

Keyser, Daniel↗

Combined Microwave and Sferics Measurements as a Continuous Proxy for Latent Heating in Mesoscale Model Predictions

Planar rainfall distributions were retrieved from data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometers. Lightning generates Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio noise pulses called sferics. Those pulses propagate over large distances so that they can be continuously monitored with a network of ground based radio receivers. An empirical relationship between the sferics rate and the convective rainfall permitted maps of convective latent heating profiles to be derived continuously from the sferics distributions. Those inferred latent heating rates were assimilated into the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) that depicted an intense winter cyclone that passed over Florida on 2 February 1998. When compared to a 14 hour MM5 rainfall forecast using conventional data, the use of lightning data improved the forecast.

Chang, D.-E.↗

Combined Microwave and Sferics Measurements as a Continuous Proxy for Latent Heating in Mesoscale Model Predictions

Planar rainfall distributions were retrieved from data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) radiometers. Lightning generates Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio noise pulses called sferics. Those pulses propagate over large distances so that they can be continuously monitored with a network of ground based radio receivers. An empirical relationship between the sferics rate and the convective rainfall permitted maps of convective latent heating profiles to be derived continuously from the sferics distributions. Those inferred latent heating rates were assimilated into the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) that depicted an intense winter cyclone that passed over Florida on 2 February 1998. When compared to a 14 hour MM5 rainfall forecast using conventional data, the use of lightning data improved the forecast.

Chang, D. -E.↗

The structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems influencing severe thunderstorm development during AVE/SESAME 1

Relationships between meso-beta scale systems and thunderstorm formation were examined as part of the NASA atmospheric variability experiment/severe environmental storms and mesoscale experiment 1979. The McIdas program was employed for meso-beta scale analyses of atmospheric structure and dynamics in kinematic computations of the Abilene Triangle on a grid mesh of 100 km for station spacing of 275 km. Mesoscale short wave systems were detected imbedded and propagating cyclonically around upper-level vortex circulation and creating environmental conditions conducive to thunderstorm development. TIROS-N and GOES satellite data served to connect the systems with two convective storms which developed. The necessity to use spaceborne instrumentation carried on the Shuttle or on free-flying satellites for enhancing the data-base on storm development is noted.

Wilson, G. S.↗

Evaluating and Understanding Parameterized Convective Processes and Their Role in the Development of Mesoscale Precipitation Systems

Research efforts during the first year focused on numerical simulations of two convective systems with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model. The first of these systems was tropical cyclone Irma, which occurred in 1987 in Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria during the AMEX field program. Comparison simulations of this system were done with two different convective parameterization schemes (CPS's), the Kain-Fritsch (1993 - KF) and the Betts-Miller (Betts 1986- BM) schemes. The second system was the June 10-11 1985 squall line simulation, which occurred over the Kansas-Oklahoma region during the PRE-STORM experiment. Simulations of this system using the KF scheme were examined in detail.

Fritsch, J. Michael↗

Evaluating and Understanding Parameterized Convective Processes and Their Role in the Development of Mesoscale Precipitation Systems

Research efforts focused on numerical simulations of two convective systems with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model. The first of these systems was tropical cyclone Irma, which occurred in 1987 in Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria during the AMEX field program. Comparison simulations of this system were done with two different convective parameterization schemes (CPS's), the Kain-Fritsch (KF) and the Betts-Miller (BM) schemes. The second system was the June 10-11, 1985 squall line simulation, which occurred over the Kansas-Oklahoma region during the PRE-STORM experiment. Simulations of this system using the KF scheme were examined in detail.

Fritsch, J. Michael↗