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At least 55 records · Page 3

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. I - Univariate distributions

The statistical treatment of univariate censored data is discussed. A heuristic derivation of the Kaplan-Meier maximum-likelihood estimator from first principles is presented which results in an expression amenable to analytic error analysis. Methods for comparing two or more censored samples are given along with simple computational examples, stressing the fact that most astronomical problems involve upper limits while the standard mathematical methods require lower limits. The application of univariate survival analysis to six data sets in the recent astrophysical literature is described, and various aspects of the use of survival analysis in astronomy, such as the limitations of various two-sample tests and the role of parametric modelling, are discussed.

Feigelson, E. D.↗

A study of turbulent flow between parallel plates by a statistical method

Turbulent Couette flow between parallel plates was studied from a statistical mechanics approach utilizing a model equation, similar to the Boltzmann equation of kinetic theory, which was proposed by Lundgren from the velocity distribution of fluid elements. Solutions to this equation are obtained numerically, employing the discrete ordinate method and finite differences. Two types of boundary conditions on the distribution function are considered, and the results of the calculations are compared to available experimental data. The research establishes that Lundgren's equation provides a very good description of turbulence for the flow situation considered and that it offers an analytical tool for further study of more complex turbulent flows. The present work also indicates that modelling of the boundary conditions is an area where further study is required.

Srinivasan, R.↗

Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

Schweikhard, W. G.↗

Improved Test Planning and Analysis Through the Use of Advanced Statistical Methods

The goal of this work is, through computational simulations, to provide statistically-based evidence to convince the testing community that a distributed testing approach is superior to a clustered testing approach for most situations. For clustered testing, numerous, repeated test points are acquired at a limited number of test conditions. For distributed testing, only one or a few test points are requested at many different conditions. The statistical techniques of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methods (RSM) are applied to enable distributed test planning, data analysis and test augmentation. The D-Optimal class of DOE is used to plan an optimally efficient single- and multi-factor test. The resulting simulated test data are analyzed via ANOVA and a parametric model is constructed using RSM. Finally, ANOVA can be used to plan a second round of testing to augment the existing data set with new data points. The use of these techniques is demonstrated through several illustrative examples. To date, many thousands of comparisons have been performed and the results strongly support the conclusion that the distributed testing approach outperforms the clustered testing approach.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

Statistical Methods for Improved Evaluation of Environmental Sample Data quarterly FY18Q2

We will develop an enhanced statistical framework to evaluate environmental swipe samples collected at nuclear facilities with the goal of identifying anomalies associated with potential undeclared activities. Our approach will be based on Bayesian methodology and time series analysis. This overall framework should result in a more cost effective and operationally effective approach to environmental swipe sample analysis and interpretation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Soil moisture estimation using GOES-VISSR infrared data - A case study with a simple statistical method

Five days of clear sky observations of Kansas and Nebraska are used to examine the statistical relationship between soil moisture and infrared surface temperature observations taken from a geosynchronous satellite. Linear regression is used to relate soil moisture to surface temperature and other variables that represent wind speed, vegetation cover, and low-level temperature advection. Results show good agreement between estimated and observed soil moisture features on each of the 5 days. The average coefficient of determination for five pseudoindependent tests in which the test day is held out of the regression is 0.71. It is shown that a depletion coefficient of 0.92, when used to compute antecedent precipitation index (API), produces the best correlation between API and soil moisture as inferred from GOES thermal infrared data. By averaging daily predicted values over the 5-day rain-free case study period, 92 percent of the variance of the morning surface temperature change is explained by a simple multiple linear regression with all independent variables, or, alternatively, 85 percent of the observed variance in API is explained. It is concluded that this approach can distinguish at least four classes of soil wetness, but the necessity for measurement of surface advection may limit its usefulness in remote areas.

Wetzel, Peter J.↗

Using Non-Linear Statistical Methods with Laboratory Kinetic Data

This paper will demonstrate the usefulness of standard non-linear statistical analysis on ICR and SIFT kinetic data. The specific systems used in the demonstration are the isotopic and change transfer reactions in the system of H2O+/D2O, H30+/D2O, and other permutations.

non-linear analysis kinetic isotopic permutations ↗

Advanced statistical methods for improved data analysis of NASA astrophysics missions

The investigators under this grant studied ways to improve the statistical analysis of astronomical data. They looked at existing techniques, the development of new techniques, and the production and distribution of specialized software to the astronomical community. Abstracts of nine papers that were produced are included, as well as brief descriptions of four software packages. The articles that are abstracted discuss analytical and Monte Carlo comparisons of six different linear least squares fits, a (second) paper on linear regression in astronomy, two reviews of public domain software for the astronomer, subsample and half-sample methods for estimating sampling distributions, a nonparametric estimation of survival functions under dependent competing risks, censoring in astronomical data due to nondetections, an astronomy survival analysis computer package called ASURV, and improving the statistical methodology of astronomical data analysis.

Feigelson, Eric D.↗

Geopositional Statistical Methods

RMSE based methods distort circular error estimates (up to 50% overestimation). The empirical approach is the only statistically unbiased estimator offered. Ager modification to Shultz approach is nearly unbiased, but cumbersome. All methods hover around 20% uncertainty (@ 95% confidence) for low geopositional bias error estimates. This requires careful consideration in assessment of higher accuracy products.

Ross, Kenton↗

Statistical methods for network surveillance

The term network surveillance is defined in general terms and illustrated with many examples. Statistical methodologies that can be used as tools for network surveillance are discussed. Details for 3 illustrative examples that address network security, surveillance for data network failures, and surveillance of email traffic flows are presented. Some open areas of research are identified.

Jeske, Daniel R.↗

A statistical method for treating molecular line opacities

A method for treating atomic and molecular line opacities in cool stellar atmospheres by a statistical opacity sampling is investigated. Under the usual assumptions of plane-parallel geometry, radiative equilibrium, hydrostatic equilibrium, and LTE, each radiative quantity is computed monochromatically at each chosen frequency and depth without any averaging of the opacity. The number of frequencies needed to allow an accurate integration of the energy flux over a given spectral interval is investigated as a function of depth, including opacity for both CN and C2. This method is extended to the calculation of a model atmosphere of a star, and the effect of the number and placement of frequency points is studied. The method is applied to treating molecular lines of CO, C2, and CN in a cool carbon star. Significant advantages of the opacity sampling method are its flexibility, which permits computation of models having arbitrary variations of chemical composition and of opacity with wavelength and depth, and generalizability to include departures from LTE.

Sneden, C.↗

Evaluating Optical Classification for Fermi Blazar Candidates with a Statistical Method Using Broadband Spectral Indices

We aim to test whether a blazar candidate of uncertain type (BCU) in the third Fermi catalog of active galactic nuclei (3LAC) can be potentially classified as a BL Lac object or a flat-spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) by performing a statistical analysis of its broadband spectral properties. We find that 34% of the radio-selected BCUs (583 BCUs) are BL Lac-like and 20% are FSRQ-like, at a 90% level of confidence. Similarly, 77.3% of the X-ray-selected BCUs (176 BCUs) are evaluated as BL Lac-like and 6.8% may be FSRQ-like sources. And 88.7% of the BL Lac-like BCUs that have synchrotron peak frequencies available are high synchrotron peaked BL Lacs in the X-ray-selected BCUs. The percentages are accordingly 62% and 7.3% in the sample of 124 optically selected BCUs. The high ratio of the number of BL Lac-like sources to the number of FSRQ-like BCUs in the X-ray-selected and optically selected BCU samples is due to selection effects. Examining the consistency between our evaluation and spectroscopic identification case by case with a sample of 78 radio-selected BCUs, it is found that the statistical analysis and its resulting classifications agree with the results of the optical follow-up spectroscopic observations. Our observation campaign for high-|ρ{sub s}| BCUs selected with our method, i.e., |ρ{sub s}|>0.8, is ongoing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical methods for efficient design of community surveys of response to noise: Random coefficients regression models

Research studies of residents' responses to noise consist of interviews with samples of individuals who are drawn from a number of different compact study areas. The statistical techniques developed provide a basis for those sample design decisions. These techniques are suitable for a wide range of sample survey applications. A sample may consist of a random sample of residents selected from a sample of compact study areas, or in a more complex design, of a sample of residents selected from a sample of larger areas (e.g., cities). The techniques may be applied to estimates of the effects on annoyance of noise level, numbers of noise events, the time-of-day of the events, ambient noise levels, or other factors. Methods are provided for determining, in advance, how accurately these effects can be estimated for different sample sizes and study designs. Using a simple cost function, they also provide for optimum allocation of the sample across the stages of the design for estimating these effects. These techniques are developed via a regression model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be random, with components of variance associated with the various stages of a multi-stage sample design.

Tomberlin, T. J.↗