A Method for Obtaining Statistical Data on Airplane Vertical Velocity at Ground Contact from Measurements of Center-of-gravity Acceleration
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Dreher, Robert C↗
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Gaussian membership functions are most adequate in representing uncertainty in measurements
In rare situations, like fundamental physics, we perform experiments without knowing what their results will be. In the majority of real-life measurement situations, we more or less know beforehand what kind of results we will get. Of course, this is not the precise knowledge of the type 'the result will be between alpha - beta and alpha + beta,' because in this case, we would not need any measurements at all. This is usually a knowledge that is best represented in uncertain terms, like 'perhaps (or 'most likely', etc.) the measured value x is between alpha - beta and alpha + beta.' Traditional statistical methods neglect this additional knowledge and process only the measurement results. So it is desirable to be able to process this uncertain knowledge as well. A natural way to process it is by using fuzzy logic. But, there is a problem; we can use different membership functions to represent the same uncertain statements, and different functions lead to different results. What membership function do we choose? In the present paper, we show that under some reasonable assumptions, Gaussian functions mu(x) = exp(-beta(x(exp 2))) are the most adequate choice of the membership functions for representing uncertainty in measurements. This representation was efficiently used in testing jet engines to airplanes and spaceships.
Kreinovich, V.↗
Lunar crater origin in the maria from analysis of Orbiter photographs.
Attempt to diagnose the origin of craters that are predominantly between 100 and 2000 m diam by the use of a statistical method that is capable of measuring both the chaining and clustering of craters. It is argued that craters with aligned centers that trend in parallel directions over vast distances are exclusively of internal origin. Strong evidence that a high proportion of the chains are of tectonic origin is found. Other criteria, such as a systematic change in the number density of craters over a test area or an excess of craters on a recent lava flow, are also used to argue for endogenic craters. Using all the data together, it is found that at least 33%, but not more than 51%, of the craters sampled are of endogenic origin. It is shown that the flux of meteoroids has not necessarily varied for the past few billion years.
Fielder, G.↗
Experimental studies of the properties of 'simulated' upstream turbulence using a statistical multipoint method
In this report we present a different approach to the multipoint measurement of magnetic fields and plasma. This is called the multi-spacecraft ensemble technique (MET), essentially free of process restrictions, such as linearity and stationarity. We comprehensively discuss the other conditions and limitations intrinsic to this statistical method. We also show the results of the application of the ensemble method to the synthetic data obtained from a hybrid simulation in the region upstream of a quasi-parallel shock. The important implications of the above approach for the CLUSTER mission are discussed.
Orlowski, D. S.↗
Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-22 Advanced Nozzle Test Facility
This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the Advanced Nozzle Test Facility, CE-22, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for the uncertainty in thrust and flow coefficients, in addition to other variables of interest, are provided. Results are presented separately as random uncertainty (characterizing errors inherent to instrument or measurement environment, impacting repeatability), systematic uncertainty (capturing inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other sources which may introduce bias), and total combined uncertainty. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The analysis tool MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation system uncertainty, and statistical analysis and engineering judgment were used to quantify other random and systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic and random elemental uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.
data quality↗
A study of high speed flows in an aircraft transition duct
The study of circular-to-rectangular transition duct flows with and without inlet swirl is presented. A method was devised to create a swirling, solid body rotational flow with minimal associated disturbances. Details of the swirl generator design and construction are discussed. Coefficients based on velocities and total and static pressures measured in cross stream planes at four axial locations within the transition duct along with surface static pressures and surface oil film visualization are presented for both nonswirling and swirling incoming flows. A method was developed to acquire trace gas measurements within the transition duct at high flow velocities. Statistical methods are used to help interpret the trace gas results.
Reichert, Bruce A.↗
Estimation of precipitation from GOES IR imagery during FGGE: Application to diagnostic studies
The objectives were to (1) develop a method of estimating open-ocean rainfall and associated latent heat release via GOES IR satellite imagery; (2) to use remote precipitation estimates to investigate the role of diabatic forcing in the maintenance of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) during FGGE SOP-1/; and (3) to assess the significance of non-quasigeostrophic transports of energy in several cyclogenetic events preceding the development of a North Atlantic blocking episode during FGGE SOP-1. The bulk of the early FY-85 work was directed toward development of the single pixel indexing technique (SPI) which assigns a rain rate to GOES IR black-body temperatures, T sub b, via a non-linear statistical relationship developed with raingauge measurements. The method was tested against radar-derived rainfall during GATE raingauge measurements over coastal North Carolina and island stations in the South Pacific Ocean. Skill was found comparable to Arkin's method (1979 MWR) in convective situations. The results suggest that transferring a rain algorithm from one oceanic regime to another may not require substantial modification of coefficients or tunable parameters. Twelve H mean rainfall amounts were produced for the region bounded by 10 deg. N, 50 deg. S, 120 deg W and 170 deg. E during the period January 10 to 16, 1979. These estimates constitute a basic input to diagnostic calculations of diabatic heating over the SPCZ region. ECMWF level III-b data analyses was used to compute several components of the APE balance in the South Pacific during the period January 10 to 18, 1979.
Robertson, F. R.↗
Statistical versus nonstatistical temperature inversion methods
Vertical temperature profiles are derived from radiation measurements by inverting the integral equation of radiative transfer. Because of the nonuniqueness of the solution, the particular temperature profile obtained depends on the numerical inversion technique used and the type of auxiliary information incorporated in the solution. The choice of an inversion algorithm depends on many factors; including the speed and size of computer, the availability of representative statistics, and the accuracy of initial data. Results are presented for a numerical study comparing two contrasting inversion methods: the statistical-matrix inversion method and the nonstatistical-iterative method. These were found to be the most applicable to the problem of determining atmospheric temperature profiles. Tradeoffs between the two methods are discussed.
Smith, W. L.↗
Optical probing of supersonic aerodynamic turbulence
Laser quasi-schlieren system and laser shadow-correlation system retrieve flow-related signals sufficient for computing accurate, reproducible correlation peaks. Statistical method for obtaining one-shot measurements of the decay history of turbulent structures in a stationary frame of reference is discussed.
Cikanek, H. A., Jr.↗
The design of optimum remote-sensing instruments
Remote-sensing instruments allow values for certain properties of a target to be retrieved from measurements of radiation emitted, reflected or transmitted by the target. The retrieval accuracy is affected by random variations in the many target properties which affect the measurements. A method is described, by which statistical properties of the target and theoretical models of its electromagnetic behavior can be used to choose values for the instrument parameters which maximize the retrieval accuracy. The technique is applicable to a wide range of remote-sensing instruments.
Peckham, G. E.↗
Multifractal characterizations of nonstationarity and intermittency in geophysical fields: Observed, retrieved, or simulated
Geophysical data rarely show any smoothness at any scale, and this often makes comparison with theoretical model output difficult. However, highly fluctuating signals and fractal structures are typical of open dissipative systems with nonlinear dynamics, the focus of most geophysical research. High levels of variability are excited over a large range of scales by the combined actions of external forcing and internal instability. At very small scales we expect geophysical fields to be smooth, but these are rarely resolved with available instrumentation or simulation tools; nondifferentiable and even discontinuous models are therefore in order. We need methods of statistically analyzing geophysical data, whether measured in situ, remotely sensed or even generated by a computer model, that are adapted to these characteristics. An important preliminary task is to define statistically stationary features in generally nonstationary signals. We first discuss a simple criterion for stationarity in finite data streams that exhibit power law energy spectra and then, guided by developments in turbulence studies, we advocate the use of two ways of analyzing the scale dependence of statistical information: singular measures and qth order structure functions. In nonstationary situations, the approach based on singular measures seeks power law behavior in integrals over all possible scales of a nonnegative stationary field derived from the data, leading to a characterization of the intermittency in this (gradient-related) field. In contrast, the approach based on structure functions uses the signal itself, seeking power laws for the statistical moments of absolute increments over arbitrarily large scales, leading to a characterization of the prevailing nonstationarity in both quantitative and qualitative terms. We explain graphically, step by step, both multifractal statistics which are largely complementary to each other. The geometrical manifestations of nonstationarity and intermittency, 'roughness' and 'sparseness', respectively, are illustrated and the associated analytical (differentiability and continuity) properties are discussed. As an example, the two techniques are applied to a series of recent measurements of liquid water distributions inside marine stratocumulus decks; these are found to be multifractal over scales ranging from approximately 60 m to approximately 60 km. Finally, we define the 'mean multifractal plane' and show it to be a simple yet comprehensive tool with many applications including data intercomparison, (dynamical or stochastic) model and retrieval validations.
Davis, Anthony↗
Bayesian Approach for Determining Microlens System Properties with High-angular resolution Follow-up Imaging
We present the details of the Bayesian analysis of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2016-BLG-227, whose excess flux is likely due to a source/lens companion or an unrelated ambient star, as well as of the assumed prior distributions. Furthermore, we apply this method to four reported planetary events, MOA-2008-BLG-310, MOA2011-BLG-293, OGLE-2012-BLG-0527, and OGLE-2012-BLG-0950, where adaptive optics observations have detected excess flux at the source star positions. For events with small angular Einstein radii, our lens mass estimates are more uncertain than those of previous analyses, which assumed that the excess was due to the lens. Our predictions for MOA-2008-BLG-310 and OGLE-2012-BLG-0950 are consistent with recent results on these events obtained via Keck and Hubble Space Telescope observations when the source star is resolvable from the lens star. For events with small angular Einstein radii, we find that it is generally difficult to conclude whether the excess flux comes from the host star. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the lens star by measuring its proper motion relative to the source star to determine whether the excess flux comes from the lens star. Even without such measurements, our method can be used to statistically test the dependence of the planet-hosting probability on the stellar mass.
Naoki Koshimoto↗
A statistical inference approach for the retrieval of the atmospheric ozone profile from simulated satellite measurements of solar backscattered ultraviolet radiation
NASA's Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) will address important interdisciplinary and environmental issues such as global warming, ozone depletion, deforestation, acid rain, and the like with its long term satellite observations of the Earth and with its comprehensive Data and Information System. Extensive sets of satellite observations supporting MTPE will be provided by the Earth Observing System (EOS), while more specific process related observations will be provided by smaller Earth Probes. MTPE will use data from ground and airborne scientific investigations to supplement and validate the global observations obtained from satellite imagery, while the EOS satellites will support interdisciplinary research and model development. This is important for understanding the processes that control the global environment and for improving the prediction of events. In this paper we illustrate the potential for powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques when used in the analysis of the formidable problems that exist in the NASA Earth Science programs and of those to be encountered in the future MTPE and EOS programs. These techniques, based on the logical and probabilistic reasoning aspects of plausible inference, strongly emphasize the synergetic relation between data and information. As such, they are ideally suited for the analysis of the massive data streams to be provided by both MTPE and EOS. To demonstrate this, we address both the satellite imagery and model enhancement issues for the problem of ozone profile retrieval through a method based on plausible scientific inferencing. Since in the retrieval problem, the atmospheric ozone profile that is consistent with a given set of measured radiances may not be unique, an optimum statistical method is used to estimate a 'best' profile solution from the radiances and from additional a priori information.
Bonavito, N. L.↗
Dual frequency correlation radar measurements of the height statistics of ocean waves
A radar technique has been developed for measuring the statistical height properties of a random rough surface. This method is being applied to the problem of measuring the significant wave height and probability density function of ocean waves from an aircraft or spacecraft. Earlier theoretical and laboratory results have been extended to define the requirements and performance limitations of flight systems. Some details of the current airborne radar system are discussed and results obtained on several experimental missions are presented and interpreted.
Weissman, D. E.↗
Quality Control and Calibration of the Dual-Polarization Radar at Kwajalein, RMI
Weather radars, recording information about precipitation around the globe, will soon be significantly upgraded. Most of today s weather radars transmit and receive microwave energy with horizontal orientation only, but upgraded systems have the capability to send and receive both horizontally and vertically oriented waves. These enhanced "dual-polarimetric" (DP) radars peer into precipitation and provide information on the size, shape, phase (liquid / frozen), and concentration of the falling particles (termed hydrometeors). This information is valuable for improved rain rate estimates, and for providing data on the release and absorption of heat in the atmosphere from condensation and evaporation (phase changes). The heating profiles in the atmosphere influence global circulation, and are a vital component in studies of Earth s changing climate. However, to provide the most accurate interpretation of radar data, the radar must be properly calibrated and data must be quality controlled (cleaned) to remove non-precipitation artifacts; both of which are challenging tasks for today s weather radar. The DP capability maximizes performance of these procedures using properties of the observed precipitation. In a notable paper published in 2005, scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) at the University of Oklahoma developed a method to calibrate radars using statistically averaged DP measurements within light rain. An additional publication by one of the same scientists at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma introduced several techniques to perform quality control of radar data using DP measurements. Following their lead, the Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite Validation Office at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center has fine-tuned these methods for specific application to the weather radar at Kwajalein Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, approximately 2100 miles southwest of Hawaii and 1400 miles east of Guam in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. This tropical oceanic location is important because the majority of rain, and therefore the majority of atmospheric heating, occurs in the tropics where limited ground-based radar data are available.
Marks, David A.↗
Radar estimation of slant path rain attenuation at frequencies above 10 GHz and comparisons with measured multi-season results
Techniques and results pertaining to estimating Earth satellite path rain attenuation events and statistics using radar at nonattenuating wavelengths are presented. The radar formulation and beam scanning methods are described and the procedure for relating the radar measured Rayleigh reflectivity to the high frequency Mie attenuation coefficient are given. Examples of radar derived single terminal statistics and estimation criteria as they relate to path angle and frequency are reviewed. Radar derived space diversity statistics and their dependence on terminal spacing and frequency are described. Site diversity performance curves obtained by radar and radiometry are compared with each other demonstrating the utility of radar methods. Results of a multi-year experiment to test, refine, and establish accuracies of radar methods for arriving at estimates of rain attenuation along an Earth-satellite path are discussed. Comparisons of measured and radar estimated fade events are presented and found to be good. Comparisons of cumulative fade distributions show agreement to be excellent giving an rms deviation of 1 dB.
Goldhirsh, J.↗
Measuring plant canopy structure
The potential of three systems to quantify plant canopy structure, key input data to canopy reflectance models is examined. The results show an optical radar system is potentially capable of providing the most fundamental type of structural data, the area, and the direction of the normal of each small piece of foliage in each cube of space in the canopy. To decrease the size of the data set of canopy measurements needed to statistically characterize the structure of a plant canopy, it is proposed that the statistical methods of bootstrapping be employed and that plans of large caopies be measured one at a time.
Vanderbilt, V. C.↗
Methodology for predictive testing of fuel cells
A perturbation testing method has been developed and tested for predictive testing of fuel cells. This method involves application of small changes to the operating conditions of the cell in a predetermined sequence. The resultant response of the cell is then measured and statistically correlated with the corresponding test conditions. This method has been applied to the phosphoric acid fuel cell, and the effect of operating and cell-component variables on cell-performance degradation has been studied. A strong effect of the cell temperature and cathode potential on fuel-cell-performance degradation has been observed. A cell-performance degradation model has been formulated, and the unknown parameters in the model have been estimated by a regression analysis of the experimental data. A reasonable agreement between the fuel cell performance predicted by this model (derived from the perturbation experiments) and the unperturbed test data supports fthe applicability of the perturbation method.
Patel, D. N.↗