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At least 55 records · Page 3

Filling the Gaps: A Bayesian Mixture Model for Imputing Missing Soil Water Content Data

ABSTRACT Soil water content (SWC) data are central to evaluating how soil moisture varies over time and space and influences critical plant and ecosystem functions, especially in water‐limited drylands. However, sensors that record SWC at high frequencies often malfunction, leading to incomplete timeseries and limiting our understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics. We developed an analytical approach to impute missing SWC data, which we tested at six eddy flux tower sites along an elevation gradient in the southwestern United States. We impute missing data as a mixture of linearly interpolated SWC between the observed endpoints of a missing data gap and SWC simulated by an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2). Within a Bayesian framework, we allowed the relative utility (mixture weight) of each component (linearly interpolated vs. SOILWAT2) to vary by depth, site and gap characteristics. We explored “fixed” weights versus “dynamic” weights that vary as a function of cumulative precipitation, average temperature, and time since the start of the gap. Both models estimated missing SWC data well ( R 2 = 0.70–0.88 vs. 0.75–0.91 for fixed vs. dynamic weights, respectively), but the utility of linearly interpolated versus SOILWAT2 values depended on site and depth. SOILWAT2 was more useful for more arid sites, shallower depths, longer and warmer gaps and gaps that received greater precipitation. Overall, the mixture model reliably gap‐fills SWC, while lending insight into processes governing SWC dynamics. This approach to impute missing data could be adapted to accommodate more than two mixture components and other types of environmental timeseries.

Ogle, Kiona [School of Informatics, Computing, and↗

Search for pair production of higgsinos in events with two Higgs bosons and missing transverse momentum in $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at the ATLAS experiment

This paper presents a search for pair production of higgsinos, the supersymmetric partners of the Higgs bosons, in scenarios with gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking. Each higgsino is assumed to decay into a Higgs boson and a nearly massless gravitino. The search targets events where each Higgs boson decays into $b\bar{b}$, leading to a reconstructed final state with at least three energetic 𝑏-jets and missing transverse momentum. Two complementary analysis channels are used, with each channel specifically targeting either low or high values of the higgsino mass. The low-mass (high-mass) channel exploits 126 (139) fb −1 of $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV data collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess above the Standard Model prediction is found. At 95% confidence level, masses between 130 GeV and 940 GeV are excluded for higgsinos decaying exclusively into Higgs bosons and gravitinos. Exclusion limits as a function of the higgsino decay branching ratio to a Higgs boson are also reported.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

Optimization and Multimachine Learning Algorithms to Predict Nanometal Surface Area Transfer Parameters for Gold and Silver Nanoparticles

Interactions between gold metallic nanoparticles and molecular dyes have been well described by the nanometal surface energy transfer (NSET) mechanism. However, the expansion and testing of this model for nanoparticles of different metal composition is needed to develop a greater variety of nanosensors for medical and commercial applications. In this study, the NSET formula was slightly modified in the size-dependent dampening constant and skin depth terms to allow for modeling of different metals as well as testing the quenching effects created by variously sized gold, silver, copper, and platinum nanoparticles. Overall, the metal nanoparticles followed more closely the NSET prediction than for Förster resonance energy transfer, though scattering effects began to occur at 20 nm in the nanoparticle diameter. To further improve the NSET theoretical equation, an attempt was made to set a best-fit line of the NSET theoretical equation curve onto the Au and Ag data points. An exhaustive grid search optimizer was applied in the ranges for two variables, 0.1≤C≤2.0 and 0≤α≤4, representing the metal dampening constant and the orientation of donor to the metal surface, respectively. Three different grid searches, starting from coarse (entire range) to finer (narrower range), resulted in more than one million total calculations with values C=2.0 and α=0.0736. The results improved the calculation, but further analysis needed to be conducted in order to find any additional missing physics. With that motivation, two artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) algorithms, multilayer perception and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, gave a correlation coefficient, R2, greater than 0.97, indicating that the small dataset was not overfitting and was method-independent. This analysis indicates that an investigation is warranted to focus on deeper physics informed machine learning for the NSET equations.

Demers, Steven M. E. (ORCID:0000000192213246)↗

Chlorine and potassium enrichment in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant

The elements in the Universe are synthesized primarily in stars and supernovae, where nuclear fusion favours the production of even-Z elements. In contrast, odd-Z elements are less abundant and their yields are highly dependent on detailed stellar physics, making theoretical predictions of their cosmic abundance uncertain. In particular, the origin of odd-Z elements such as phosphorus (P), chlorine (Cl) and potassium (K), which are important for planet formation and life, is poorly understood. While the abundances of these elements in Milky Way stars are close to solar values, supernova explosion models systematically underestimate their production by up to an order of magnitude, indicating that key mechanisms for odd-Z nucleosynthesis are currently missing from theoretical models. Here we report the observation of P, Cl and K in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant using high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy with X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission data, with the detection of K at above the 6σ level being the most significant finding. Supernova explosion models of normal massive stars cannot explain the element abundance pattern, especially the high abundances of Cl and K, while models that include stellar rotation, binary interactions or shell mergers agree closely with the observations. Our observations suggest that such stellar activity plays an important role in supplying these elements to the Universe.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Developing a Lightning All-Clear Signal for the Savannah River Site

Lightning safety is a major concern at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Notifications are provided when 3-strikes occur onsite within a 15-minute period. It is generally left up to individual contractors at SRS to determine when it is safe for workers to return to outside work, generally following a 3-hour period of no lightning, after the last lightning strike occurs. This work tries to improve safe return to work decisions by developing a reliable all-clear signal using an electric field mill. The best signal used thresholds from multiple electric field values to provide an average delay for return to work of 2 hours and 13 minutes. This average was heavily influenced by lingering storms in the area or missing data from power or network outages. One event out of 98 signaled the all-clear prior to another event occurring less than 60 minutes later. Regardless, 62% of the all clear signals had delay times less than the mean and 72% had delay times less than the current 3-hour delay after the last strike. This provides better worker safety for returning to work than 30 minutes after the last lightning strike (e.g. OSHA Lightning Safety) and improves the delay time from the current 3-hour delay.

Noble, Stephen [Savannah River National Laboratory↗

Missing components in ΛCDM from DESI Y1 baryonic acoustic oscillation measurements: Insights from redshift remapping

We explore transformations of the Friedman-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric and cosmological parameters that align with observational data while aiming to gain insights into potential extensions of standard cosmological models. We modified the FLRW metric by introducing a scaling factor, e 2Θ(a) –the cosmological scaling function (CSF), which alters the standard relationship between cosmological redshift and the cosmic scale factor without affecting angular measurements or cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies. Using data from DESI Year 1, Pantheon+ supernovae, and the Planck CMB temperature power spectrum, we constrained both the CSF and cosmological parameters through a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Our results indicate that the CSF model fits observational data with a lower Hubble constant (although it is compatible with the value given by Planck 2018 within 1σ) and is predominantly dark matter dominated. Additionally, the CSF model produces temperature and lensing power spectra similar to those predicted by the standard model, though with lower values in the CSF model at large scales. We also checked that when fitting a CSF model without dark energy to the data, we obtain a more negative conformal function. This suggests that the CSF model may offer hints about missing elements and opens up a new avenue for exploring physical interpretations of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Time series methods for the analysis of soundscapes and other cyclical ecological data

Biodiversity monitoring has entered an era of ‘big data’, exemplified by a near-continuous collection of sounds, images, chemical and other signals from organisms in diverse ecosystems. Such data streams have the potential to help identify new threats, assess the effectiveness of conservation interventions, as well as generate new ecological insights. However, appropriate analytical methods are often still missing, particularly with respect to characterizing cyclical temporal patterns. Here, we present a framework for characterizing and analysing ecological responses that represent nonstationary, complex temporal patterns and demonstrate the value of using Fourier transforms to decorrelate continuous data points. In our example, we use a framework based on three approaches (spectral analysis, magnitude squared coherence, and principal component analysis) to characterize differences in tropical forest soundscapes within and across sites and seasons in Gabon. By reconstructing the underlying, cyclic behaviour of the soundscape for each site, we show how one can identify circadian patterns in acoustic activity. Soundscapes in the dry season had a complex diel cycle, requiring multiple harmonics to represent daily variation, while in the wet season there was less variance attributable to the daily cyclic patterns. Our framework can be applied to most continuous, or near-continuous ecological data collected at a fine temporal resolution, allowing ecologists to explore patterns of temporal autocorrelation at multiple levels for biologically meaningful trends. Such methods will become indispensable as biological big data are used to understand the impact of anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and to inform efforts to mitigate them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol Thermodynamics (Aerosol Liquid Water Concentration and Aerosol pH) at S2 during CoURAGE

These data report aerosol liquid water content (ALWC) and aerosol pH for the S2 (Mt. Airy) site during CoURAGE for April - June 2025. The ISORROPIA-II aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium model was used to compute ALWC and pH. The model was run in forward mode, with solids formation disabled (metastable mode), according to Pye et al. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020). Information about the model can be found at https://www.epfl.ch/labs/lapi/models-and-software/isorropia/, and in Fountoukis and Nenes (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2007). Inputs to the model were: (1) measured Temperature and relative humidity, both from the DoE ARM “metwxt” data products at S2, (2) aerosol chemical composition from the ARM ACSM, and (3) gas-phase ammonia concentrations. For ISORROPIA-II, ambient RH values above 0.995 were input to the model as 0.995; therefore, caution should be exercised interpreting ALWC when RH was above 0.995. Aerosol composition or NH3(g) concentrations below the LOD were input into the model as 0.5*LOD. Model runs were only conducted for data points at 30-min resolution with all three inputs (meteorology, ACSM, and NH3). If any of the three model inputs were missing, aerosol thermodynamic outputs are flagged as -999. Similarly, aerosol thermodynamic outputs are flagged as -999 if measured NH3(g) and aerosol ammonium (NH4+) were simultaneously below the respective LODs. The ALWC includes liquid water from inorganic aerosol components, calculated directly by ISORROPIA-II, as well as liquid water from organics, estimated from the ACSM organics assuming a kappa value of 0.12 according to Guo et al. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2015).

Aerosol Liquid Water Content↗

Missing baryons recovered: A measurement of the gas fraction in galaxies and groups with the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect and CMB lensing

We present new constraints on the halo masses and matter density profiles of DESI galaxy groups by cross-correlating samples of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) and bright galaxy survey (BGS) galaxies with the publicly available CMB lensing convergence map from ACT DR6. This provides an independent, lensing-based calibration of halo masses, complementary to methods relying on clustering or dynamics. We derive constraints on the mean halo mass for three DESI-selected samples, finding log⁡(𝑀 halo /(𝑀 ⊙ /ℎ)) ≈ 13.18, 13.03 and 13.02 for the main LRG, extended LRG, and BGS samples, respectively. Using a halo model approach, we also compare the projected galaxy-matter density profiles with previously reported gas profiles inferred from measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect. This work addresses one of the key uncertainties in interpreting kSZ signals—the unknown host halo mass distribution—by providing an independent and consistent mass calibration. The agreement between the gas and total mass profiles at large aperture suggests that sufficiently far from the group center (2–3 virial radii), we recover all the baryons, offering a resolution to the missing baryon problem. We further study the cumulative gas fractions for all galaxies as well as for the most massive galaxy groups in the sample [log⁡(𝑀 halo /(𝑀 ⊙ /ℎ)) ≈ 13.5], finding values that are physically sensible and in agreement with previous findings using kSZ and x-ray data: compared to the TNG300 simulation, the observed gas fractions are systematically lower at fixed radius by ≳ 4⁢𝜎, providing compelling, independent evidence for stronger baryonic feedback in the real Universe. These findings highlight the power of combining CMB lensing with galaxy surveys to probe the interplay between baryons and dark matter in group-sized halos.

Hadzhiyska, Boryana [Lawrence Berkeley National La↗

A Rhodopseudomonas strain with a substantially smaller genome retains the core metabolic versatility of its genus

ABSTRACT Rhodopseudomonas are a group of phototrophic microbes with a marked metabolic versatility and flexibility that underpins their potential use in the production of value-added products, bioremediation, and plant growth promotion. Members of this group have an average genome size of about 5.5 Mb, but two closely related strains have genome sizes of about 4.0 Mb. To identify the types of genes missing in a reduced genome strain, we compared strain DSM127 with other Rhodopseudomonas isolates at the genomic and phenotypic levels. We found that DSM127 can grow as well as other members of the Rhodopseudomonas genus and retains most of their metabolic versatility, but it has many fewer genes associated with high-affinity transport of nutrients, iron uptake, nitrogen metabolism, and biodegradation of aromatic compounds. This analysis indicates genes that can be deleted in genome reduction campaigns and suggests that DSM127 could be a favorable choice for biotechnology applications using Rhodopseudomonas or as a strain that can be engineered further to reside in a specialized natural environment. IMPORTANCE Rhodopseudomonas are a cohort of phototrophic bacteria with broad metabolic versatility. Members of this group are present in diverse soil and water environments, and some strains are found associated with plants and have plant growth-promoting activity. Motivated by the idea that it may be possible to design bacteria with reduced genomes that can survive well only in a specific environment or that may be more metabolically efficient, we compared Rhodopseudomonas strains with typical genome sizes of about 5.5 Mb to a strain with a reduced genome size of 4.0 Mb. From this, we concluded that metabolic versatility is part of the identity of the Rhodopseudomonas group, but high-affinity transport genes and genes of apparent redundant function can be dispensed with.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Studies of Localization Effects on Transverse Kinematic Imbalance in the GENIE Generator

The forthcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) requires precise modeling of neutrino--nucleus interactions to achieve its neutrino-oscillation measurement goals. GENIE, the Monte Carlo event generator used by DUNE and other Fermilab-based experiments as a central value model for neutrino-nucleus cross sections, exhibits known discrepancies in comparison to MicroBooNE cross section data, especially when considering neutrino scattering events' transverse kinematic imbalance (TKI). For quasielastic-like measurements, the data show a larger transverse missing momentum tail while maintaining a peak similar to that predicted by the baseline GENIE model. Previous attempts at a solution include variations of final-state interaction (FSI) strengths, incorrectly decreasing both the peak and tail, thus leaving the discrepancy unresolved. This work investigates whether inconsistencies between local and global treatments of intranuclear physics contribute to the observed mismodeling. In this work, GENIE FSI routines have been modified to directly utilize intranuclear particle positions, thereby introducing a newly localized momentum treatment in correlation with the nominal density in both the hA and hN intranuclear cascade models for their 2018 and 2025 variants. Meson-exchange-current (MEC) localization was also tested for the hN 2018 model. Comparisons of the intranuclear nucleons' ("scattering center") momentum and its radial dependence validate the localization implementation. However, while such consistent localization produces modest changes in the proton momentum spectrum at low-to-medium momenta, only small changes are observed in the TKI distributions. These changes are insufficient to account for the discrepancy with MicroBooNE data. Although a localized treatment improves the internal consistency of the GENIE model, the origin of the TKI discrepancy remains unresolved by such a solution.

Bulla, Braden [Ctr. Coll., Danville; Fermilab]↗

Inverse problem in the large momentum effective theory framework

One proposal to compute parton distributions from first principles is the large momentum effective theory (LaMET), which requires the Fourier transform of matrix elements computed nonperturbatively. Lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) provides calculations of these matrix elements over a finite range of Fourier harmonics that are often noisy or unreliable in the largest computed harmonics. It has been suggested that enforcing an exponential decay of the missing harmonics helps alleviate this issue. Using nonperturbative data, we show that the uncertainty introduced by this inverse problem in a realistic setup remains significant without very restrictive assumptions, and that the importance of the exact asymptotic behavior is minimal for values of 𝑥 where the framework is currently applicable. We show that the crux of the inverse problem lies in harmonics of the order of 𝜆 = 𝑧⁢𝑃 𝑧 ∼ 5–15, where the signal in the lattice data is often barely existent in current studies, and the asymptotic behavior is not firmly established. We stress the need for more sophisticated techniques to account for this inverse problem, whether in the LaMET or related frameworks like the short-distance factorization. We also address a misconception that, with available lattice methods, the LaMET framework allows a “direct” computation of the 𝑥-dependence, whereas the alternative short-distance factorization only gives access to moments or fits of the 𝑥-dependence.

Dutrieux, Hervé [Aix-Marseille Université, Marseil↗

EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: Single Particle Soot Photometer

Coastal cities offer a unique environment for studying aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects of urban emissions on cloud properties. As part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), the Partitioning Thrust by Los Alamos National Laboratory (EPCAPE-PT-LANL) was conducted. Our campaign focused on measuring the optical and chemical properties of aerosols and their interactions within marine stratocumulus clouds in La Jolla, California. EPCAPE-PT-LANL enhances the primary goals of EPCAPE through innovative observations of vapor-phase transitions between aerosols and cloud droplets, the impact of black carbon on aerosol-cloud dynamics, and the effects of cloud processing on aerosol optical properties. Instrument: Single Particle Soot Photometer (Droplet Measurements Technology) Data Notes: Contact us if you want additional data products from this instrument. Reported data is the black carbon (rBC) number and mass concentration with diagnostic flags. The SP2 measures incandescence from particles that is induced with a 1064 Nd-YAG laser. Particles that absorb the laser energy and then emit radiation is assumed to contain black carbon. The amount of intensity of radiation is related to the mass of absorbing material in the particle. Here, we calibrate the incandescence intensity to size selected Regal Black (Cabot) nebulized from solution. Data provided for the EPCAPE campaign used the combined broadband high-gain + low-gain channels (BHBL). Each channel has a lower threshold of detection equivalent to 2-s of the respective channel noise. Thresholding has been applied to select between the high-gain and low-gain channels. The detection limit is 80-540 nm (Deq) or 0.36- 55 fg. It is assumed that rBC is the only aerosol type that is in significant concentration in the sampled atmosphere that absorbs the laser energy. Particle data are integrated over 10 second windows to calculate a rBC number and mass concentration. QC/QA: • Diagnostic flags that impacted measured concentration: - Sample, Sheath, and Purge Flow Rates: Despite observing fluctuations in all flows, the rBC detection and mass quantification are generally observed to be stable, although large changes in sample flow rate did impact detection efficiency. A flag was implemented for sample flow deviations >12 cm3/min from the set point averaged over 30 seconds - Laser Power: Detection efficiency decreases with laser power and deviations in laser power also affect mass quantification. Flag for laser power is set for deviations in laser current from the set value >5 mA. - Primary Detector Threshold: Primary thresholding is the signal value which determines whether a “particle” is recorded. Thresholding errors occur when the threshold value is too HIGH and real particles are ignored. • Several periods without data: - 16-18 Nov: Ultra Zero Air generator failure, flows deviated significantly from set points. rBC # conc recovered but questionable. - 20-21 Nov: Offline for calibrations for several hours each day. - 25-27 Nov: Data is missing. - 30 Nov: Power outage 3 Dec: SP2 hard-drive full. - 3 Dec: Power Outage Header: - BHBL_NumbConc[#/cc]: Refers to the number concentration of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured from combined broadband high-gain and low-gain channels, expressed in particles per cubic centimeter. - BHBL_BCMass_Conc[ug/m3]: Refers to the mass concentration of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured from combined broadband high-gain and low-gain channels, expressed in micrograms per cubic meter. - NoData_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag that indicates whether no data was recorded during a measurement. - NoBC_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether no black carbon particles were recorded during the measurement. - Laser_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations in laser current during the measurement. - SampleFlow_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations from the set sample flow rate during the measurement. - PrimThresh_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations from the set primary threshold during the measurement, potentially ignoring real particles. - Manual_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating manual intervention or adjustments during the measurement. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active or inactive during the measurement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Upstream surface roughness and terrain are strong drivers of contrast in tornado potential between North and South America

Central North America is the global hotspot for tornadoes, fueled by elevated terrain of the Rockies to the west and a source of warm, moist air from equatorward oceans. This conventional wisdom argues that central South America, with the Andes to the west and Amazon basin to the north, should have a “tornado alley” at least as active as central North America. Central South America has frequent severe thunderstorms yet relatively few tornadoes. Here, we show that conventional wisdom is missing an important ingredient specific to tornadoes: a smooth, flat ocean-like upstream surface. Using global climate model experiments, we show that central South American tornado potential substantially increases if its equatorward land surface is smoothed and flattened to be ocean-like. Similarly, we show that central North American tornado potential substantially decreases if its equatorward ocean surface is roughened to values comparable to forested land. A rough upstream surface suppresses the formation of tornadic environments principally by weakening the poleward low-level winds, characterized by a weakened low-level jet east of the mountain range. Results are shown to be robust for any midlatitude landmass using idealized experiments with a simplified continent and mountain range. Our findings indicate that large-scale upstream surface roughness is likely a first-order driver of the strong contrast in tornado potential between North and South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences for reconstructing the evolutionary history of Galapagos giant tortoises

Genomic data from contemporary and historical samples often need to be coupled for evolutionary reconstructions of multitaxon complexes. However, the genetic data recovered from historical samples may result only in ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences (ulcWGS; <0.15× depth), leading to inaccurate evolutionary inferences given a preponderance of missing data. Using the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation as a study system (Chelonoidis spp., composed of 13 extant and four extinct lineages), we assembled a novel methodological pipeline that removes potential noise introduced by the missing data and enhances the evolutionary signal from ulcWGS samples. We leveraged existing tools for phylogenomic placement (EPA-ng), population genomic structure (smartsnp) and admixture (Admixfrog, NGSadmix) to demonstrate that the evolutionary history of samples can be uncovered with sequencing depths as low as 0.008–0.139×. Importantly, these approaches do not use genotype imputation of the ulcWGS samples, which would require extensive reference datasets. Our application to two cases of extinct lineages of Galapagos giant tortoises, with and without references from the same lineage, demonstrates the general value of the approach. We confirm where the extinct lineages from San Cristóbal and Santa Fe islands fit into the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation, and that these lineages were evolutionarily distinct entities.

ancient DNA↗

Uniting Theory and Experiment to Deliver Flexible MOFS for Superior Methane (NG) Storage

The objective of the project was to use previous insights developed through synthesis and quantitative modeling of rigid metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in an established synergistic theoretical/experimental team to create, modify, and evaluate flexible MOFs (FlexMOFs) for natural gas (NG) storage and release at practically useful pressures and transform the NG storage economy. The goal was reduced pressure absorbed natural gas (ANG) FlexMOF storage at operating pressures less than 100 bar with physisorption exploiting the favorable thermodynamics and kinetics of flexible porous material opening in response to adsorption. Hydrogen behavior in this context was also considered. The specific aim of the project was to design and develop a standard computational modeling methodology for, first, detailed atomistic retrodiction of FlexMOF gating behavior and ultimately prediction of the effects of functionalization and/or substitution on structural transitioning. The project was also geared towards the establishment of the interaction of methane with the framework and binding sites using modeling and the FlexMOF will be both internally and external validated as a SMART metric. This has value to the scientific community both from the obvious standpoint of providing a better understanding of the promising test case systems (CdIF-13 and the MIL-53(Al) series of MOFs), but also in providing an avenue of obtaining insight into these FlexMOF systems in general, which is of particular interest given the tendency of structure-function correlation to lag behind synthesis methodology (making the latter a hit or miss proposition for applications). This gap remains significant for FlexMOF systems whose gate opening behaviors complicate computational examination. The computational methodologies are relatively inexpensive in terms of both money and computational resources enhancing the general viability of these methodologies. The ultimate gain to the public will be in the application of these techniques to design systems for natural gas storage and use to cut down on green-house emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗