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At least 55 records · Page 3

River–aquifer interactions enhancing evapotranspiration in a semiarid riparian zone: A modelling study

The hydrologic flows across the river–aquifer interface play an important role in groundwater dynamics and biogeochemical reactions within the subsurface; however, little is known about the effects of river–aquifer interactions on land surface processes. In this study, we developed a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) land surface and subsurface model at a high resolution (~1 km) that accounts for high-frequency hydrologic exchange flow conditions to investigate how river–aquifer interactions modulate surface water budgets in the Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids watershed, a typical semiarid watershed located in the northwestern United States where river stage fluctuates in response to reservoir releases changing. Our results show that the spatiotemporal dynamics of river–aquifer interactions are highly heterogeneous, driven mainly by river-stage fluctuations. Adding 6.64 × 10 6 m 3 year –1 of water over the watershed from the river to groundwater owing to the lateral flow, river–aquifer interactions led to an increase in soil evaporation and transpiration supplied by higher soil moisture content, particularly in deeper subsurface. In a hypothetic future scenarios where a 5-m rise in river stage was assumed, the hydrologic flow exchange rates were intensified, resulting in higher surface water over the entire watershed. Overall, lateral flow induced by river–aquifer exchanges leads to an increase in evapotranspiration of ~75% in the historical period and of ~83% in the hypothetical future scenario. Finally, our study demonstrates the potential of coupled model as an effective tool for understanding river–aquifer–land surface interactions, and indicates that river–aquifer interactions fundamentally alter the water balance of the riparian zone for the semiarid watershed and will likely become more frequent and intense in the future under the effects of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying microbial roles in environmental iron oxidation via an integrated kinetics, `omics and metabolic modeling study (Final Report)

Iron oxyhydroxides are extremely reactive components of environmental systems, and therefore exert a strong influence on biogeochemical cycles. These oxyhydroxides strongly adsorb many biologically-relevant elements, including organic carbon and phosphate, as well as a wide range of metals including uranium and actinide species. Thus, the formation mechanism of iron oxyhydroxides are key to understanding both nutrient and contaminant cycling. Microorganisms can catalyze iron oxidation and promote the formation of Fe biominerals and thus are increasingly recognized as important players in biogeochemical cycling. However, it is completely unknown how much of environmental iron oxidation is biologically mediated versus abiotic, and various challenges in studying microbial iron oxidation have hindered accurate incorporation into hydrobiogeochemical models. The overarching goal of our work was to quantify and constrain microbial iron oxidation rates and use ‘omics to gain insight into the controls on this process, while developing tools to enable integration of biotic iron oxidation into hydrobiogeochemical models. Our work focused on the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina, where extensive microbial iron oxidation has been observed. At Tims Branch, part of the Argonne National Laboratory Wetland Hydrobiogeochemistry Science Focus Area (Argonne SFA), where groundwater discharges into a stream, iron-oxidizing microbial mats form and appear to be a major sink of uranium. In the wetlands that surround Tims Branch, there are wide swaths of iron microbial mats and flocs (mobilized mat). We measured biotic and abiotic iron oxidation rates using mats and water sampled from these sites and found that iron oxidation is primarily carried out by chemolithotrophic microorganisms. The resulting rate constants can be incorporated into models. These mats were characterized by metagenomics and metatranscriptomics, which showed that aerobic chemolithotrophs were the dominant iron-oxidizing bacteria (FeOB), and these included Gallionellaceae and Leptothrix, and possibly Rhodoferax, which is known as an Fe-reducer but may also oxidize Fe(II). This demonstrated that diverse FeOB can coexist and suggests that there are a range of niches and therefore drivers of chemolithotrophic iron oxidation. Analysis of reconstructed genomes strongly suggests that a major factor in diversity is carbon source, as genomes contained varied pathways for autotrophy and heterotrophy. We performed an in-depth analysis of Leptothrix ochracea genomes, since this sheath-former is one of the primary mat builders, yet its physiology remained unresolved. A combination of genomics, transcriptomics, and metabolic modeling suggest that L. ochracea grows mixotrophically using a combination of Fe(II) and organics for energy and both inorganic and organic carbon to create biomass. This contrasts with the largely autotrophic Gallionellaceae (Gallionella, Sideroxydans, and Ferriphaselus) also present in the mats and flocs. Remarkably, multiple FeOB, both Leptothrix and Gallionellaceae, showed activity in response to Fe(II) in live mat incubations. We tracked the gene expression of individual MAGs to Fe(II) and found that various autotrophic and heterotrophic FeOB responded to Fe(II), increasing expression of both carbon fixation and organic utilization genes. The results of the integrated field, kinetics, and omics studies give detailed insight into 1) the taxa that oxidize Fe, and 2) how they connect Fe, C, and N cycles. Towards the goal of connecting omics data to hydrobiogeochemical models, we worked with the KBase team to create a template metabolic model for chemolithotrophic iron oxidation. We initially modeled the well-characterized isolate Gallionellaceae Sideroxydans lithotrophicus, and also applied the model to the mixotroph L. ochracea. In all, we have characterized diverse FeOB in a representative wetland system and solved key problems that enable better incorporation of iron-oxidizing microbes into hydrobiogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Extreme Precipitation Predictions With Dynamical Downscaling: A Convection‐Permitting Modeling Study in Texas and Oklahoma

Precipitation in the Southern Plains of the United States is relatively well depicted by the Community Earth System Model (CESM). However, despite its ability to capture seasonal mean precipitation anomalies, CESM consistently underestimates extreme pluvial and drought events, rendering it an insufficient tool for extending simulation lead times for exceptional events, such as the abnormally dry May 2011, which helped drive Texas into its worst period of drought in more than a century, and the abnormally wet May 2015, which led to widespread flooding in that state. Ensemble‐based regional climate experiments are completed for the two extreme years using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and downscaled from CESM. WRF simulations are at convection‐permitting grid resolution for improved physical representation of simulated precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. By integrating convection‐permitting models (CPMs) into each individual member of a CESM ocean data assimilation ensemble, this study demonstrates that high‐resolution dynamical downscaling can improve model skillfulness at capturing these two events and is thus a potentially useful tool for forecasting extremely high and extremely low precipitation events at subseasonal or even seasonal lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of biomass-burning aerosols over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) and its sensitivity to absorbing properties: a regional climate modeling study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000-2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July-August-September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10°S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ~0.5-1K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ~0.2-0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m -2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m -2 (most absorbing BBAs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An experimental and kinetic modeling study of cyclopentane and dimethyl ether blends

Cyclopentane is a suitable naphthene, or cycloalkane, in a palette for multi-component gasoline surrogate fuels due to its presence in market fuels and its relevance to alkyl substituted cyclopentanes also present. However, the previous oxidation studies of cyclopentane have primarily focused on neat mixtures. Blending cyclopentane with dimethyl ether in this work therefore serves to inform our understanding of, and improve predictive models for, multi-component mixtures. Here, the auto-ignition of cyclopentane/dimethyl ether blends was studied in a high-pressure shock tube and in a rapid compression machine. A wide range of temperatures (650 – 1350 K) and elevated pressures of 20 and 40 bar were studied at equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 in air for two blending ratios (30/70 and 70/30 mole% cyclopentane/di-methyl ether mixtures). A detailed kinetic model for cyclopentane was revised to capture the measured ignition delay times and apparent heat release rates in this study. Literature ignition delay time, jet-stirred reactor, and laminar burning velocity measurements of neat cyclopentane were used as additional validation. Improvements to the kinetic model were based on recent literature studies related to sub-models including cyclopentene and cyclopentadiene which allowed the removal of previous local rate-constant optimizations. Low temperature reactivity of cyclopentane was found to be controlled by the branching ratio between concerted elimination of HO͘ 2 and the strained formation of Q&#775OOH radicals in agreement with previous studies. In this study, the low branching ratio of Q&#775OOH formation increases the influence of a competing consumption pathway for cyclopentyl-peroxy (CPTO͘ 2 J) radicals. The sensitivity of the simulated ignition delay times to the formation of cyclopentyl hydroperoxide (CPTO 2 H), from CPTO͘ 2 J and HO͘ 2 , is discussed. The current model is used to analyze the influence of dimethyl ether on the reactivity of cyclopentane in the context of previous literature studies of dimethyl ether binary blends with ethanol and toluene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A comprehensive experimental and kinetic modeling study of di-isobutylene isomers: Part 2

A wide variety of high temperature experimental data obtained in this study complement the data on the oxidation of the two di-isobutylene isomers presented in Part I and offers a basis for an extensive validation of the kinetic model developed in this study. Due to the increasing importance of unimolecular decomposition reactions in high-temperature combustion, we have investigated the di-isobutylene isomers in high dilution utilizing a pyrolysis microflow reactor and detected radical intermediates and stable products using vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) synchrotron radiation and photoelectron photoion coincidence (PEPICO) spectroscopy. Additional speciation data at oxidative conditions were also recorded utilizing a plug flow reactor at atmospheric pressure in the temperature range 725-1150 K at equivalence ratios of 1.0 and 3.0 and at residence times of 0.35 s and 0.22 s, respectively. Combustion products were analyzed using gas chromatography (GC) and mass spectrometry (MS). Ignition delay time measurements for di-isobutylene were performed at pressures of 15 and 30 bar at equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 diluted in 'air' in the temperature range 900-1400 K using a high-pressure shock-tube facility. New measurements of the laminar burning velocities of di-isobutylene/air flames are also presented. The experiments were performed using the heat flux method at atmospheric pressure and initial temperatures of 298-358 K. Moreover, data consistency was assessed with the help of analysis of the temperature and pressure dependencies of laminar burning velocity measurements, which was interpreted using an empirical power-law expression. Electronic structure calculations were performed to compute the energy barriers to the formation of many of the product species formed. The predictions of the present mechanism were found to be in adequate agreement with the wide variety of experimental measurements performed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Modeling Study of Reduced Tubing Size Effects on Flow in Depleted Reservoir Natural Gas Storage Wells

This report explores the effects of tubing size reductions on natural gas flow from representative depleted reservoir underground storage wells and fields using basic models for coupled reservoir and pipe flow. This work was motivated by interest at the U.S. Department of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, in evaluating the effects of tubing and packer as a potential safety upgrade to implement double-barrier systems to existing underground natural gas storage wells. Reservoir and well flow models were developed from widely accepted industry equations, verified against a commercial process simulator model, and validated against field data. The study utilized U.S. operator survey data to provide context and assure that modeling parameters including aver age deliverability rates for wells and fields, operating pressures, well depths, and storage capacities were all carefully considered to keep the modeling relevant to the known range of U.S. operations. The models generally found that wells and fields with inherently low deliverability were relatively insensitive to reductions in tubing diameter, primarily because the hydraulics in those cases were controlled by reservoir properties. For the high-producing wells and fields, the models found that reducing tubing diameter could produce significant reductions in deliverability, both at the field- and well-level. When put into context with occurrence data regarding average deliverability of fields and wells, it appears that most wells and most fields across the U.S. would experience deliverability reductions on the low end of what was simulated here, generally below 20%. For fields with moderate to high deliverability, reductions were generally larger, and could reach as high as 60% for the highest-producing wells and fields.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Theoretical and kinetic modeling study of H 2 S pyrolysis

Hydrogen sulfide pyrolysis was investigated theoretically and through chemical kinetic modeling. Reactions on the SHH potential energy surface, primarily S + H 2 (+Ar) ⇌ H 2 S (+ Ar) (R1) and S + H 2 ⇌ SH + H (R6b) were characterized by ab initio calculations. Results for k 1 were in good agreement with experiment, but deviated strongly below 2000 K from values previously used in modeling. Collider efficiencies for H 2 S, S 2 , and N 2 compared to Ar were calculated for R1. Hydrogen sulfide decomposition experiments reported in literature were re-examined in terms of an updated detailed chemical kinetic model. Concentration profiles for the atomic S at high temperature in shock tubes supported the present value of k 1 and served to constrain the rate constants for reaction of S with SH and H 2 S. To explain results from batch and flow reactors, conducted at high H 2 S concentrations in the 900–1400 K range, a very fast rate constant was required for HSS + H ⇌ SH + SH. Under dilute conditions, the gas-phase chemistry was too slow to compete and the decomposition of H 2 S was controlled by loss on the reactor surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A wide range experimental and kinetic modeling study of the oxidation of 2,3-dimethyl-2-butene: Part 1

2,3-Dimethyl-2-butene (TME) is a potential fuel additive with high research octane number (RON) and octane sensitivity (S), which can improve internal combustion engine performance and efficiency. However, the combustion characteristics of TME have not been comprehensively investigated. Thus, it is essential to study the combustion characteristics of TME and construct a detailed chemical kinetic model to describe its combustion. In this paper, two high-pressure shock tubes and a constant-volume reactor are used to measure ignition delay times and laminar flame speeds of TME oxidation. Further, the ignition delay times were measured at equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 in “air”, at pressures of 5 and 10 bar, in the temperature range of 950 – 1500 K. Flame speeds of the TME/ “air” mixtures were measured at atmospheric pressure, at a temperature of 325 K, for equivalence ratios ranging from 0.78 to 1.31. Two detailed kinetic mechanisms were constructed independently using different methodologies; the KAUST TME mechanism was constructed based on NUIGMech1.1, and the MIT TME mechanism was built using the Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG). Both mechanisms were used to simulate the experimental results using Chemkin Pro. In the present work, reaction flux and sensitivity analyses were performed using the KAUST mechanism to determine the critical reactions controlling TME oxidation at the conditions studied.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Experimental and modeling study of 1/ f noise in multilayer MoS2 and MoSe2 field-effect transistors

In field-effect transistors (FETs) with two-dimensional (2D) transition metal dichalcogenide channels, the dependence of field-effect mobility on atomic layer thickness has been studied and interpreted in terms of interface scattering and interlayer coupling resistance (Rint). However, a model for 1/f noise, such as in MoS2 and in MoSe2 FETs, for various contact metals and layer number thicknesses has not been reported. In this work, we have experimentally studied current–voltage and 1/f noise on MoS2 and MoSe2 FETs with source and drain contacts of high and low work function metals to understand both the mobility and the noise behavior. We have developed a noise model incorporating layer number dependent Hooge parameters and Rint. The noise and mobility models utilize screening lengths for charge, mobility, and Hooge parameter to describe the variation of these quantities with a layer number. Using our single model topology with appropriate fitting parameters for each material and each contact metal, the model captures the experimentally observed layer thickness dependence of the Hooge parameter. Our noise analysis is fully comprehensive and, hence, could be applied to any 2D layered systems.

Kwon, Jiseok↗

Mechanical separations of corn stover anatomical fractions in an integrated feedstock preprocessing system: An experimental and data-driven modeling study

High variabilities of material attributes in lignocellulosic biomass present risks for biofuel and biochemical productions and must be mitigated via preprocessing. Since almost no mechanical device is originally designed for processing biomass, how to operate existing apparatuses with efficient performance has not been investigated extensively. This work presents a study on an integrated screening and air classification to separate cobs and stalks from husks and leaves in corn stover. Prototype machine learning models were developed to assess the feasibility of predicting the process outcome based on the measurable parameters. The models trained upon limited experimental data rendered decent predictive accuracy of yield and purity. The experimental data and modeling results collectively suggest decreasing throughput leads to a higher purity. To the contrary, if throughput increases, a lower purity is likely. A possible trade-off between yield and purity of the separated streams indicates the need for optimal combinations of feedstock size, moisture, and throughput to achieve optimized separations. The results of this study also suggest the need to further improve model predictability by developing more accurate formulations for physics governing the integrated unit operations. To accomplish this, additional experimental data needs to be generated for model training.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Experimental and fuel-surrogates modeling study of the high-pressure pyrolysis of specialty cetane number fuels: implications for fall-off in ethylene unimolecular dissociation

Single pulse shock tube experiments were conducted at 50 atm nominal pressure and 4 ms nominal reaction time over a temperature range of 900–1800 K, to study the pyrolysis speciation of a multi-component jet fuel, F-24, and six cetane number (CN) specialty fuels - CN30, CN35, CN40, CN45, CN50, and CN55. Gas chromatography (GC) was used to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the post shock gases. The relationship between the formation of key pyrolysis species and the chemically controlled combustion propensity as reflected by the cetane number of each fuel was examined. A surrogate-based mechanism from the CRECK Modelling Group and chemical-functional group based optimized surrogates (CFGO) were used to simulate the pyrolysis speciation results. The model was able to capture the chemistry of most species except two important pyrolysis intermediates – ethylene and acetylene. Chemical kinetic analyses were performed to identify the important reactions which affect the chemistry of these species; however, the rate parameters of critical reactions were found to be unsuitable for simulating the present high-pressure studies. Here, to address this unsuitability, a theory-based fall-off analysis for three reactions representing the decomposition of ethylene and subsequent formation of acetylene was performed, and these are included in an updated version of the CRECK mechanism. This update resolves discrepancies between the experimental results and simulations for ethylene and acetylene. Reaction flux analyses using the updated surrogate model were also performed to identify the important reaction pathways responsible for the formation of crucial species and to provide an analysis of the chemistry of complex multi-component fuel systems. The fundamental reactions responsible for driving pyrolysis chemistry were greatly influenced by the chemical functional groups present in these fuels. In addition to updating the rate parameters of specific reactions to improve modeling, this study also emphasizes the effectiveness of the fuel-surrogate approach, where surrogates representing the chemical functional group composition of the parent fuel serve as a valuable tool for predicting the combustion chemistry of novel fuels.

Chemical Kinetics↗

Hyporheic Exchange Driven by Submerged Rigid Vegetation: A Modeling Study

Flow-vegetation interaction affects fluid flow hydraulics and associated material transport in river corridors. Concomitant changes in pressure within the flow field due to the presence of vegetation may act as a driver for the formation of hyporheic flow across the sediment-water interface. This potentially important process, however, has yet to be studied. In order to investigate vegetation-induced hyporheic exchange, a series of numerical models of interlinked surface-subsurface flow modified by plant stems was conducted. Periodically staggered plant stem arrays on a flat sediment bed were considered within a coupled multiphysics computational fluid dynamics approach. Plants were idealized as rigid cylinders and arranged in different streamwise and spanwise spacing distances. Each vegetation array was then subjected to a broad range of flow Reynolds Numbers (Re). The results showed that hyporheic flow occurs in all conditions with the presence of vegetation. The vegetation-induced hyporheic flux is found to be a function of Re via a power law. The flux increases with interstem space until the space reaches the distance that rigid stems no longer affect the flow structures in the vicinity of each other. Larger intervegetation distances lead to a larger hyporheic zone. A direct comparison with bedforminduced hyporheic flow showed that vegetation can induce higher hyporheic flux through relatively shallower exchange zones. The results of all the simulations were synthesized into predictive models for hyporheic flux, bulk residence time and exchange depth based on drag coefficient, vegetation density, and Reynolds Number.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Modeling Study on Ammonia and Ammonia/Hydrogen Kinetics for Gas Turbine Engines

The use of ammonia as a fuel source in gas turbine engine power cycles represents an attractive means to decarbonize the energy sector due to higher energy density and achieving liquid state at far lower pressures compared to pure hydrogen. However, due to low flammability and a propensity for high NOx emissions, its use is not without challenge. Here, a number of 0D and 1D modeling tools were utilized to study the combustion characteristics of ammonia and ammonia/hydrogen mixtures, examining basic fundamental properties such as laminar flame speed, variability among existing chemical kinetic mechanisms, and considering the use of two-stage rich-lean combustion strategies to achieve low NOx emissions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model study of the energy dependence of the correlation between anisotropic flow and the mean transverse momentum in Au + Au collisions

A hybrid model that employs the hadron-string transport model UrQMD and the (3+1)-dimensional relativistic viscous hydrodynamic code vHLLE, is used to investigate the beam energy dependence of the correlation coefficient ρ(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ]) between the average transverse momentum [p T ] of hadrons emitted in an event and the square of the anisotropic flow coefficient v$^{2}_{2}$. For Au+Au collisions, the model predicts characteristic patterns for the energy and event-shape dependence of the variances for [p T ] and v$^{2}_{n}$ [Var([p T ] and Var(v$^{2}_{2}$)], and the covariance of v$^{2}_{n}$ and [p T ][cov(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ])], consistent with the attenuation effects of the specific shear viscosity η/s. Here in contrast, ρ(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ]) is predicted to be insensitive to the beam energy but sensitive to the initial-state geometry of the collisions. These observations suggest that a precise set of measurements for Var([p T ]), Var(v$^{2}_{2}$), cov(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ]) and ρ(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ]) as a function of beam energy and event shape, could serve to constrain better the eccentricities and their fluctuations over the entire span of beam energies, and consequently aid precision extraction of the temperature and baryon chemical-potential dependence of η/s from the wealth of Au+Au data obtained in the RHIC beam energy scan.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Enhancing reactant selectivity for Ni/Mg reforming catalysts using silicalite-1 shells: A modeling study

The ability of a zeolite shell to enhance the selective conversion of hydrocarbons through diffusional limitations was investigated using a multi-scale model of a fixed-bed reactor. The impact of shell thickness and molecule/pore size on the catalytic performance of silicalite-1 zeolite encapsulated nickel catalyst pellets for steam reforming of C1-C7 hydrocarbons is reported. A reaction–diffusion model using kinetic expressions established in literature was employed. The model was verified through comparison with reported experimental results for steam reforming data over a temperature range of 748 – 1113 K and pressure of 1 – 10 bar. Comparisons are also made against experimental data for steam reforming in the presence of a zeolite shell. Evaluation of the Weisz-Prater criterion for both the core and encapsulated catalyst confirmed mass transfer limitation induced by the utilization of a zeolite shell. The model was used to suggest an optimal thickness that balances diffusional limitations imposed by the zeolite layer on methane versus that of the heavier hydrocarbons. The optimum thickness varied as a function of hydrocarbon size and shape which determined the diffusion rates. For toluene and heptane, a 50 nm thick shell was sufficient to wholly prevent reaction. Hydrocarbons like propane and butane required a shell 7.5 and 5 μm thick. Increasing the gas-hourly-space-velocity from 10,000 to 60,000 h –1 caused a decrease in the optimum shell thickness. Furthermore, this approach can be modified for application to other mixed hydrocarbon systems to predict optimal catalyst design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamic modeling studies of basin-scale pressure interference and CO 2 plume evolution in multi-well geologic CO 2 storage

This research employs numerical modeling to analyze how CO 2 plumes and pressure fronts evolve when CO 2 is injected into a single storage formation from multiple projects located in proximity. Here, this analysis also evaluates the extent to which injection well spacing alleviates pressure buildup in the absence of active pressure management tactics. The simulation approach was based on a single, homogenous saline aquifer in which CO 2 injection occurs under a one-injector baseline case and several multi-well cases where well spacing varies. Analysis results show that the extent of pressure buildup is in the range of tens or a few hundreds of kilometers and contingent upon the defining pressure buildup demarcating the front edge. For the geological setting evaluated in this paper, our analysis suggests that without active basin pressure management strategies, commercial-scale projects would likely need to be sited far apart to avoid pressure interference from one another. Analysis results show the radius of CO 2 plume varies approximately from 2 to 3 km from injection wells (each injecting 1 Mt/year for 30 years) depending on cases and modeling parameters assumed. Given the pressure interference, this paper thus draws attention to the importance of greater coordination among storage operators and regulatory stakeholders. Because this analysis assumes a very specific geologic setting, this exploratory analysis bears further investigations across other geologic scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High Accuracy Indicators of Androgen Suppression Therapy Failure for Prostate Cancer—A Modeling Study

Prostate cancer is a serious public health concern in the United States. The primary obstacle to effective long-term management for prostate cancer patients is the eventual development of treatment resistance. Due to the uniquely chaotic nature of the neoplastic genome, it is difficult to determine the evolution of tumor composition over the course of treatment. Hence, a drug is often applied continuously past the point of effectiveness, thereby losing any potential treatment combination with that drug permanently to resistance. If a clinician is aware of the timing of resistance to a particular drug, then they may have a crucial opportunity to adjust the treatment to retain the drug’s usefulness in a potential treatment combination or strategy. In this study, we investigate new methods of predicting treatment failure due to treatment resistance using a novel mechanistic model built on an evolutionary interpretation of Droop cell quota theory. We analyze our proposed methods using patient PSA and androgen data from a clinical trial of intermittent treatment with androgen deprivation therapy. Our results produce two indicators of treatment failure. The first indicator, proposed from the evolutionary nature of the cancer population, is calculated using our mathematical model with a predictive accuracy of 87.3% (sensitivity: 96.1%, specificity: 65%). The second indicator, conjectured from the implication of the first indicator, is calculated directly from serum androgen and PSA data with a predictive accuracy of 88.7% (sensitivity: 90.2%, specificity: 85%). Our results demonstrate the potential and feasibility of using an evolutionary tumor dynamics model in combination with the appropriate data to aid in the adaptive management of prostate cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗