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Information on probabilistic structural analysis methods for space propulsion systems is given in viewgraph form. Information is given on deterministic certification methods, probability of failure, component response analysis, stress responses for 2nd stage turbine blades, Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) structural durability, and program plans. .
Report describes probabilistic failure assessment (PFA). Developed for application to spaceflight systems for sufficient testing of hardware to ensure reliability not feasible. However, must be ascertained that critical failure modes extremely unlikely to occur during service. PFA applied to any failure mode described by quantitative models of physics and mechanics of failure phenomena, such as fatigue crack in initiation or propagation in structures, leakage of seals, wear in bearings, and erosion of arcjet thrustor cathodes.
In 1972, when engineers at Hughes Aircraft Corporation discovered that errors in their satellite avionics were being caused by cosmic rays (so-called single-event effects, or SEE), Moore's Law was only 7 years old. Now, more than 45 years on, the scaling that drove Moore's Law for its first 35 years has reached its limits. However, electronics technology continues to evolve exponentially and SEE remain a formidable issue for use of electronics in space. SEE occur when a single ionizing particle passes through a sensitive volume in an active semiconductor device and generates sufficient charge to cause anomalous behavior or failure in the device. Because SEE can occur at any time during the mission, the emphasis of SEE risk management methodologies is ensuring that all SEE modes in a device under test are detected by the test. Because a particle's probability of causing an SEE generally increases as the particle becomes more ionizing, heavy-ion beams have been and remain the preferred tools for elucidating SEE vulnerabilities. In this talk we briefly discuss space radiation environments and SEE mechanisms, describe SEE test methodologies and discuss current and future challenges for use of heavy-ion beams for SEE testing in an era when the continued validity of Moore's law depends on innovation rather than CMOS scaling.
With the recent advances in additive manufacturing (AM), long-range periodic lattice assemblies are being developed for vibration and shock mitigation components in aerospace and military applications with unique geometric and topological structures. There has been extensive work in understanding the static properties associated with varying topology of these lattice architectures, but there is almost no understanding of microstructural affects in such structures under high-strain rate dynamic loading conditions. Here we report the shock behavior of lattices with varying intrinsic grain structures achieved by post process annealing. High resolution 316L stainless steel lattices were 3D printed by a laser-powder bed fusion machine and characterized by computed tomography. Subsequent annealing resulted in stress-relieved and recrystallized lattices. Overall the lattices had strong cubic texture aligning with the x-, y- and z-directions of the build with a preference outside the build direction (z). The recrystallized sample had more equiaxed polygonal grains and a layer of BCC ferrite at the surface of the structure approximately 1 grain thick. Upon dynamic compression the as-deposited lattice showed steady compaction behavior while the heat-treated lattices exhibit negative velocity behavior indicative of failure. We attribute this to the stiffer BCC ferrite in the annealed lattices becoming damaged and fragmenting during compression.
An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk for a spaceflight system in order to assess flight readiness is presented. This methodology is of particular value when information relevant to failure prediction, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is limited. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomena are used in a prescribed probabilistic structure to generate a failure probability distribution that is modified by test and flight experience in a Bayesian statistical procedure. The probabilistic structure and statistical methodology are generally applicable to any failure mode for which quantitative engineering analysis can be employed to characterize the failure phenomenon and are particularly well suited for use under the constraints on information availability that are typical of such spaceflight systems as the Space Shuttle and planetary spacecraft.
Owing to the frequency of occurrence and high risk associated with bearings, identification and characterization of bearing faults in motors via nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods have been studied extensively, amongst which vibration analysis has been found to be a promising technique for early diagnosis of anomalies. However, a majority of the existing techniques rely on vibration sensors attached onto or in close proximity to the motor in order to collect signals with a relatively high SNR. Due to weight and space restrictions, these techniques cannot be used in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), especially during flight operations since accelerometers cannot be attached onto motors in small UAVs. Small UAVs are often subjected to vibrational disturbances caused by multiple factors such as weather turbulence, propeller imbalance or bearing faults. Such anomalies may not only pose risks to UAV's internal circuitry, components or payload, they may also generate undesirable noise level particularly for UAVs expected to fly in low-altitudes or urban canyon. This paper presents a detailed discussion of challenges in in-flight detection of bearing failure in UAVs using existing approaches and offers potential solutions to detect overall vibration anomalies in small UAV operations based on IMU data.
Two samples of the Murchinson C2 chondrite were analyzed for organic nitrogen compounds, using mass spectrometry in combination with paper and thin-layer chromatography. Under mild extraction conditions (water or formic acid), only alphatic amines and some alkylpyridines were seen. Drastic extraction conditions (hot 3-6 M HCL) a variety of nitrogen compounds appeared, including adenine (15 ppm), guanine (5ppm), melamine (20 ppm), cyanuric acid (20 to 30 ppm), guanylurea (30 to 45 ppm), and urea (25 ppm). It appears that these compounds are present mainly in macromolecular material. Failure of other investigators to identify these compounds in carboneceous chondrites is attributed to inadequate extraction conditions (water and formic acid rather than HCl).
A quantitative methodology for estimating the probability of occurrence of critical structural failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems during mission operation is presented. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomenon are used in a prescribed probabalistic structure in which quantified uncertainty in the information used in the analysis and quantified uncertainty of the engineering analysis models themselves are both considered in estimating failure risk. The methodology is applicable to high cycle fatigue, low cycle fatigue, flaw propagation stress rupture, and other failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems and other space-flight systems. The probabalistic failure assessment presented provides the capability of performing quantitative analyses to rank options to improve reliability, thereby enabling limited financial resources of development and improvement programs to be more effectively allocated.
A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for predicting the failure life distribution due to subcritical crack growth is presented. A state-of-the-art crack propagation method is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. The crack growth failure model expresses failure life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A stochastic crack growth rate model that considers the uncertainties due to scatter in the data and mode misspecification is proposed. The rationale for choosing a particular type of probability distribution for each stochastic input parameter and for specifying the distribution parameters is presented. The approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic crack growth failure analysis of a welded tube in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A discussion of the results from this application of the methodology is given.
An investigation was conducted to determine the cause of the failure of a massive AISI Type 316 stainless steel valve which controlled combustion air to a jet engine test facility. Several through-the-wall cracks were present near welded joints in the valve skirt. The valve had been in outdoor service for 18 years. Samples were taken in the cracked regions for metallographic and chemical analyses. Insulating material and sources of water mist in the vicinity of the failed valve were analyzed for chlorides. A scanning electron microscope was used to determine whether foreign elements were present in a crack. On the basis of the information generated, the failure was characterized as external stress-corrosion cracking. The cracking resulted from a combination of residual tensile stress from welding and the presence of aqueous chlorides. Recommended countermeasures are included.
A probabilistic high cycle fatigue (HCF) failure analysis of a welded duct in a rocket engine of the Space Shuttle main engine class is described. A state-of-the-art HCF failure prediction method was used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. A stochastic stress/life model is used for material characterization, and a composite stress history is generated for accurately deriving the stress cycles for the fatigue-damage calculations. The HCF failure model expresses fatigue life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A series of HCF failure life analyses were performed to study the impact of a fixed parameter and to assess the importance of each stochastic input parameter through marginal analyses.
The objectives of the last six months were: Continue analysis of Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) bio-optical mooring data, Recover instrumentation from JGOFS cruises in the Southern Ocean and analyze data Maintain documentation of MOCEAN algorithms and software for use by MOCEAN and GLI teams Continue chemostat experiments on the relationship of fluorescence quantum yield to environmental factors. Continue to develop and expand browser-based information system for in situ bio-optical data Work Analysis of Field Data from Hawaii We are continuing to analyze bio-optical data collected at the Hawaii Ocean Time Series mooring. The HOT bio-optical mooring was recovered in May 1998. After retrieving the data, the sensor package was serviced and redeployed. We now have over 18 months of data. These are being analyzed as part of a larger study of mesoscale processes at this JGOFS time series site. We have had some failures in the data logger which have affected the fluorescence channels. These are being repaired. We also had an instrument housing failure, and minor modifications have been made to avoid subsequent problems. In addition, Ricardo Letelier is funded as part of the SeaWiFS calibrator/validation effort (through a subcontract from the University of Hawaii, Dr. John Porter), and he is collecting bio-optical and fluorescence data as part of the HOT activity.
The weldability of W-Cu composite sheet was investigated using simulated and welded joints. The welded joints were produced in a vacuum hot press. Tensile test results showed that simulated joints can provide strength and failure mode data which can be used in joint design for actual weldments. Although all of the welded joints had flaws, a number of these joints were as strong as the W-Cu composite base material.
This paper describes the theory and considerations in the application of metrics to measure the effectiveness of fault management. Fault management refers here to the operational aspect of system health management, and as such is considered as a meta-control loop that operates to preserve or maximize the system's ability to achieve its goals in the face of current or prospective failure. As a suite of control loops, the metrics to estimate and measure the effectiveness of fault management are similar to those of classical control loops in being divided into two major classes: state estimation, and state control. State estimation metrics can be classified into lower-level subdivisions for detection coverage, detection effectiveness, fault isolation and fault identification (diagnostics), and failure prognosis. State control metrics can be classified into response determination effectiveness and response effectiveness. These metrics are applied to each and every fault management control loop in the system, for each failure to which they apply, and probabilistically summed to determine the effectiveness of these fault management control loops to preserve the relevant system goals that they are intended to protect.
The Moon is under constant bombardment by meteoroids. When the meteoroid is large, the impact craters the surface, launching crater ejecta far from the impact potentially threatening astronauts on the lunar surface. In the early 1960’s, the ejecta impact flux was thought no more than the sporadic meteoroid flux but with speeds one to two orders of magnitude smaller. However, the Lunar Module designers realized by 1965 that meteoroid bumpers do not perform well at the smaller ejecta impact speeds. Their estimates of the Lunar Module risk of penetration by ejecta were 25 to 50% of the total risk. This was in spite of the exposure time to ejecta being only a third of that to sporadic meteoroids. The standard committee based the 1969 NASA SP-8013 lunar ejecta environment on Zook’s 1967 flux analysis and Gault, Shoemaker and Moore’s 1963 test data for impacts into solid basalt targets. However, Zook noted in his 1967 analysis, that if the lunar surface was composed of soil, that the ejected soil particles would be smaller than ejected basalt fragments and that the ejection speeds would be smaller. Both effects contribute to reducing the risk of a critical failure due to lunar ejecta. The authors revised Zook’s analysis to incorporate soil particle size distributions developed from analysis of Apollo lunar soil samples and ejected mass as a function of ejecta speed developed from coupling parameter analyses of soil impact-test data. The authors estimated EVA risk by assuming failure occurs at a critical impact energy. At these impact speeds, this might be true for suit hard and soft goods. However, these speeds are small enough that there may be significant strength effects that require new test data to modify the hypervelocity critical energy failure criterion. With these caveats, Christiansen, Cour-Palais and Freisen list the critical energy of the ISS EMU hard upper torso as 44 J and the helmet and visor as 71 J at hypervelocity. The authors then assumed that the lunar EVA suit fails at 50 J critical energy. This results in a 1,700,000 years mean time to failure using the results of this analysis and a 3,800 years mean time to failure using NASA SP-8013.
The Raft River Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) demonstration project aims to improve the geothermal production by enhancing the reservoir permeability via shear stimulation in well RRG-9. In this paper, we performed a series of 3D thermo– hydro–mechanical (THM) simulations to investigate the influence of hydraulic and thermal effects on the development of this EGS. The model includes synthetic fracture populations based on borehole televiewer images and in-situ stress measurements from well RRG-9. Fracture permeability evolution is determined using an empirical permeability law developed from laboratory experiments. The model was calibrated by comparing the hydraulic response to field observations, including wellhead pressure, injection rate, and well injectivity. Particularly, we analyzed the enhancement of reservoir permeability and the spatial extent of the stimulation zone for the given injection schedule. Our results indicate that the permeability enhancement of fractured geothermal reservoir is caused by the combined effects of injection-induced cooling and fluid pressure increase. The decrease of temperature plays a dominant role in reactivation of natural fractures under the hydro-shearing mechanism, while the higher injection pressure promotes shear failure and enlarges the stimulation zone. Finally, for the specified extensional stress state, the model favors greatest permeability enhancement along the maximum horizontal principal stress, a moderate vertical enhancement, and a smaller gain along the minimum horizontal principal stress.
Tests were made to determine the effect of length and the effect of ratios of diameter to wall thickness upon the flexural and torsional moduli of failure of 61S-T aluminum-alloy tubing. The moduli of failure in bending, as determined by tests in which the tubing was loaded on the neutral axis at the one-third points of the span, were found to bear an approximately linear relationship with diameter-thickness ratio and were practically independent of span within the limits investigated. Empirical equations are given describing the relations obtained. The moduli of failure in torsion were found to be dependent upon length as well as upon diameter-thickness ratios. Empirical equations are given for predicting strengths within the range of plastic buckling. Within the elastic range, available torsion theories were found to be satisfactory.
High-speed photography, which is a rapid sequence of photographs that allow an event to be analyzed through the stoppage of motion or the production of slow-motion effects, is examined. In high-speed photography 16, 35, and 70 mm film and framing rates between 64-12,000 frames per second are utilized to measure such factors as angles, velocities, failure points, and deflections. The use of dual timing lamps in high-speed photography and the difficulties encountered with exposure and programming the camera and event are discussed. The application of video cameras to the recording of high-speed events is described.