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At least 55 records · Page 3

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Bayesian time-varying occupancy model for West Nile virus in Ontario, Canada

Occupancy models determine the true presence or absence of a species by adjusting for imperfect detection in surveys. They often assume that species presences can be detected only if sites are occupied during a sampling season. We extended these models to estimate occupancy rates that vary throughout a sampling season as well as account for spatial dependence among sites. For these methods, we constructed a fast Gibbs sampler with the Pólya-Gamma augmentation strategy to conduct inference on covariate effects. We applied these methods to evaluate how environmental conditions and surveillance practices are associated with the presence of West Nile virus in mosquito traps across Ontario, Canada from 2002 to 2017. We found that urban land cover and warm temperatures drove viral occupancy, whereas viral testing on pools with higher proportions of Culex mosquitoes was more likely to result in a positive test for West Nile virus. Models with time-varying occupancy effects achieved much lower Watanabe-Akaike information criteria than models without such effects. Our final model had strong predictive performance on test data that included some of the most extreme seasons, demonstrating the promise of these methods in the study of pathogens spread by mosquito vectors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

AeDES: a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for environmental suitability of Aedes-borne disease transmission

Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endemic regions by travelers, who can become new sources of mosquito infection upon their return home if the exposed population is susceptible to the disease, and if suitable environmental conditions for the mosquitoes and the virus are present. Since the susceptibility of the human population can be determined via periodic monitoring campaigns, the environmental suitability for the presence of mosquitoes and viruses becomes one of the most important pieces of information for decision makers in the health sector. We present a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for Aedes-borne diseases’ environmental suitability (AeDES) of transmission in the conterminous United States and transboundary regions, using calibrated ento-epidemiological models, climate models and temperature observations. After analyzing the seasonal predictive skill of AeDES, we briefly consider the recent Zika epidemic, and the compound effects of the current Central American dengue outbreak happening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to illustrate how a combination of tailored deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can inform key prevention and control strategies .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing risk for Dengue in Brazil: a multi-dimensional approach

Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne infectious disease worldwide, primarily caused by the Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. There are approximately 100-400 million cases annually, with roughly half of the global population at risk. In recent years, and particularly in 2024, there has been a major increase in Dengue cases in North and South America. One of the most heavily affected countries is Brazil, where there has been a 230% increase in cases in 2024 compared to 2023. In a report in June 2024, the CDC released a report indicating 3 risk groups for dengue: infants aged ≤1 year, pregnant women, and adults over 65 years old. Due to the spike in cases, it’s important to understand what factors contribute to Dengue risk and create a model to quantify it in order to inform decisions on how to respond. The main 2 parts of this project were a) exploring the spatial relationships between these 3 Dengue risk group populations and aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Brazil and b) creating an index to quantify risk for Dengue in Brazil. The 10 cities with the highest risk were identified, and it was found that the east coast and southern regions are at highest risk. The findings in this study provide insights into cities and areas of Brazil that should be focused on for targeting Dengue spread.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Zika virus mutation enhances transmission potential and confers escape from protective dengue virus immunity

Zika virus (ZIKV) and dengue virus (DENV) are arthropod-borne pathogenic flaviviruses that co-circulate in many countries. To understand some of the pressures that influence ZIKV evolution, we mimic the natural transmission cycle by repeating serial passaging of ZIKV through cultured mosquito cells and either DENV-naive or DENV-immune mice. Compared with wild-type ZIKV, the strains passaged under both conditions exhibit increased pathogenesis in DENV-immune mice. Application of reverse genetics identifies an isoleucine-to-valine mutation (I39V) in the NS2B proteins of both passaged strains that confers enhanced fitness and escape from pre-existing DENV immunity. Introduction of I39V or I39T, a naturally occurring homologous mutation detected in recent ZIKV isolates, increases the replication of wild-type ZIKV in human neuronal precursor cells and laboratory-raised mosquitoes. Our data indicate that ZIKV strains with enhanced transmissibility and pathogenicity can emerge in DENV-naive or -immune settings, and that NS2B-I39 mutants may represent ZIKV variants of interest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Structural and immunological differences in Plasmodium falciparum sexual stage transmission-blocking vaccines comprised of Pfs25-EPA nanoparticles

Development of a malaria vaccine that blocks transmission of different parasite stages to humans and mosquitoes is considered critical for elimination efforts. A vaccine using Pfs25, a protein on the surface of zygotes and ookinetes, is under investigation as a transmission-blocking vaccine (TBV) that would interrupt parasite passage from mosquitoes to humans. The most extensively studied Pfs25 TBVs use Pichia pastoris-produced recombinant forms of Pfs25, chemically conjugated to a recombinant carrier protein, ExoProtein A (EPA). The recombinant form of Pfs25 first used in humans was identified as Pfs25H, which contained a total of 14 heterologous amino acid residues located at the amino- and carboxyl-termini including a His6 affinity tag. A second recombinant Pfs25, identified as Pfs25M, was produced to remove the heterologous amino acid residues and conjugated to EPA (Pfs25M-EPA). Here, monomeric Pfs25M was characterized biochemically and biophysically for identity, purity, and integrity including protein structure to assess its comparability with Pfs25H. Although the biological activities of Pfs25H and Pfs25M, whether generated by monomeric forms or conjugated nanoparticles, appeared similar, fine-mapping studies with two transmission-blocking monoclonal antibodies detected structural and immunological differences. In addition, evaluation of antisera generated against conjugated Pfs25H or Pfs25M nanoparticles in nonhuman primates identified polyclonal IgG that recognized these structural differences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Establishment of a reverse transcription real-time quantitative PCR method for Getah virus detection and its application for epidemiological investigation in Shandong, China

Getah virus (GETV) is a mosquito-borne, single-stranded, positive-sense RNA virus belonging to the genus Alphavirus of the family Togaviridae . Natural infections of GETV have been identified in a variety of vertebrate species, with pathogenicity mainly in swine, horses, bovines, and foxes. The increasing spectrum of infection and the characteristic causing abortions in pregnant animals pose a serious threat to public health and the livestock economy. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a method that can be used for epidemiological investigation in multiple animals. In this study, a real-time reverse transcription fluorescent quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) method combined with plaque assay was established for GETV with specific primers designed for the highly conserved region of GETV Nsp1 gene. The results showed that after optimizing the condition of RT-qPCR reaction, the minimum detection limit of the assay established in this study was 7.73 PFU/mL, and there was a good linear relationship between viral load and Cq value with a correlation coefficient ( R 2 ) of 0.998. Moreover, the method has good specificity, sensitivity, and repeatability. The established RT-qPCR is 100-fold more sensitive than the conventional RT-PCR. The best cutoff value for the method was determined to be 37.59 by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.956. Meanwhile, we collected 2,847 serum specimens from swine, horses, bovines, sheep, and 17,080 mosquito specimens in Shandong Province in 2022. The positive detection rates by RT-qPCR were 1%, 1%, 0.2%, 0%, and 3%, respectively. In conclusion, the method was used for epidemiological investigation, which has extensive application prospects.

Cao, Xinyu↗

High Rate of Non-Human Feeding by Aedes aegypti Reduces Zika Virus Transmission in South Texas

Mosquito-borne viruses are emerging or re-emerging globally, afflicting millions of people around the world. Aedes aegypti, the yellow fever mosquito, is the principal vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, and has well-established populations across tropical and subtropical urban areas of the Americas, including the southern United States. While intense arboviral epidemics have occurred in Mexico and further south in the Americas, local transmission in the United States has been minimal. Here, we study Ae. aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus host feeding patterns and vertebrate host communities in residential environments of South Texas to identify host-utilization relative to availability. Only 31% of Ae. aegypti blood meals were derived from humans, while 50% were from dogs and 19% from other wild and domestic animals. In Cx. quinquefasciatus, 67% of blood meals were derived from chicken, 22% came from dogs, 9% from various wild avian species, and 2% from other mammals including one human, one cat, and one pig. We developed a model for the reproductive number, R0, for Zika virus (ZIKV) in South Texas relative to northern Mexico using human disease data from Tamaulipas, Mexico. We show that ZIKV R0 in South Texas communities could be greater than one if the risk of human exposure to Ae. aegypti bites in these communities is at least 60% that of Northern Mexico communities. The high utilization of non-human vertebrates and low risk of human exposure in South Texas diminishes the outbreak potential for human-amplified urban arboviruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Transmission Dynamics Within Its Endemic Range in Chiapas, Mexico

Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), comprising vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV) and vesicular stomatitis Indiana virus (VSIV), emerges from its focus of endemic transmission in Southern Mexico to cause sporadic livestock epizootics in the Western United States. A dearth of information on the role of potential arthropod vectors in the endemic region hampers efforts to identify factors that enable endemicity and predict outbreaks. In a two-year, longitudinal study at five cattle ranches in Chiapas, Mexico, insect taxa implicated as VSV vectors (blackflies, sandflies, biting midges, and mosquitoes) were collected and screened for VSV RNA, livestock vesicular stomatitis (VS) cases were monitored, and serum samples were screened for neutralizing antibodies. VS cases were reported during the rainy (n = 20) and post-rainy (n = 2) seasons. Seroprevalence against VSNJV in adult cattle was very high (75–100% per ranch) compared with VSIV (0.6%, all ranches). All four potential vector taxa were sampled, and VSNJV RNA was detected in each of them (11% VSNJV-positive of 874 total pools), while VSIV RNA was only detected in four pools of mosquitoes. Our findings indicate that VSNJV is the dominant serotype across our sampling sites with a variety of potential insect vectors involved in its transmission throughout the year. Although no livestock cases were reported in Chiapas during the dry season, VSNJV was detected in insects during this period, suggesting that mechanisms other than transmission from livestock support VSV endemicity.

Virology↗

Changing Temperatures, Changing Risks

Imagine what life with dengue fever would be like in the U.S. during the year 2050. You live with your family in Houston, Texas, and enjoy frequent fishing excursions at the nearby nature reserve. On average, days are about 5° Fahrenheit warmer than in the previous decade, and a summer dengue outbreak is underway. The local public health agency recommends using insect repellent, wearing long sleeves and pants, covering strollers with mosquito netting, and installing screens on windows and doors. It also suggests eliminating mosquito habitats near homes by emptying water-holding containers like planters, toys, tires, and trash receptacles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Performance of low-cost indoor air quality monitors for PM 2.5 and PM 10 from residential sources

Advances in particle sensor design and manufacturing have enabled the development of low-cost air quality monitors (LCMs). Here, the sensors use light scattering to estimate mass concentration and thus require evaluation for aerosols of varied composition and size distribution. We tested the performance of six LCMs designed for home use and having a retail price under US$300 in October 2018. We assessed their performance by comparing their output to reference PM 2.5 and PM 10 measurements from 21 common residential sources and from infiltrated outdoor PM 2.5 . Reference data were obtained by using gravimetric measurements to adjust time-resolved output from an aerosol spectrometer with both electrical mobility and optical particle sensors. Compared by linear regression to reference measurements, LCMs had negative intercepts and slopes of 1–2 for infiltrated outdoor PM 2.5 . Semi-quantitative responses (~50–200% of actual PM 2.5 ) were obtained for varied aerosols including minerals (ultrasonic humidifier, vacuuming, test dust); combustion products (incense, mosquito coil, extinguished candles); microwave popcorn; and cooking involving frying or grilling. LCMs had low or no response to sources for which all mass was in particles smaller than 0.25 μm, including steady candle flames and cooking without frying or grilling. PM 10 data from LCMs was more variable than PM 2.5 .

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Structural insights into acetylated histone ligand recognition by the $\mathrm{BDP1}$ bromodomain of Plasmodium falciparum

Plasmodium falciparum requires a two-host system, moving between Anopheles mosquito and humans, to complete its life cycle. To overcome such dynamic growth conditions its histones undergo various post-translational modifications to regulate gene expression. The P. falciparum Bromodomain Protein 1 (PfBDP1) has been shown to interact with acetylated lysine modifications on histone H3 to regulate the expression of invasion-related genes. Here, we investigated the ability of the PfBDP1 bromodomain to interact with acetyllsyine modifications on additional core and variant histones. A crystal structure of the PfBDP1 bromodomain (PfBDP1-BRD) reveals it contains the conserved bromodomain fold, but our comparative analysis between the PfBDP1-BRD and human bromodomain families indicates it has a unique binding mechanism. Solution NMR spectroscopy and ITC binding assays carried out with acetylated histone ligands demonstrate that it preferentially recognizes tetra-acetylated histone H4, and we detected weaker interactions with multi-acetylated H2A.Z in addition to the previously reported interactions with acetylated histone H3. Our findings indicate PfBDP1 may play additional roles in the P. falciparum life cycle, and the distinctive features of its bromodomain binding pocket could be leveraged for the development of new therapeutic agents to help overcome the continuously evolving resistance of P. falciparum against currently available drugs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Potent transmission-blocking monoclonal antibodies from naturally exposed individuals target a conserved epitope on Plasmodium falciparum Pfs230

Pfs230 is essential for Plasmodium falciparum transmission to mosquitoes and is the protein targeted by the most advanced malaria-transmission-blocking vaccine candidate. Prior understanding of functional epitopes on Pfs230 is based on two monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) with moderate transmission-reducing activity (TRA), elicited from subunit immunization. Here, we screened the B cell repertoire of two naturally exposed individuals possessing serum TRA and identified five potent mAbs from sixteen Pfs230 domain-1-specific mAbs. Structures of three potent and three low-activity antibodies bound to Pfs230 domain 1 revealed four distinct epitopes. Highly potent mAbs from natural infection recognized a common conformational epitope that is highly conserved across P. falciparum field isolates, while antibodies with negligible TRA derived from natural infection or immunization recognized three distinct sites. Our study provides molecular blueprints describing P. falciparum TRA, informed by contrasting potent and non-functional epitopes elicited by natural exposure and vaccination.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tetrapodal textured Janus textiles for accessible menstrual health

Menstruating individuals without access to adequate hygiene products often improvise with alternatives that pose health risks and limit their participation in society. We describe here a menstrual hygiene product based on low-cost materials, which are integrated onto fabrics to imbue unidirectional permeability. A body-facing "Janus" fabric top layer comprising ZnO tetrapods spray-coated onto polyester mosquito netting imparts hierarchical texturation, augmenting the micron-scale texturation derived from the weave of the underlying fabric. The asymmetric coating establishes a gradient in wettability, which underpins flash spreading and unidirectional permeability. The hygiene product accommodates a variety of absorptive media, which are sandwiched between the Janus layer and a second outward-facing coated densely woven fabric. An assembled prototype demonstrates outstanding ability to wick saline solutions and a menstrual fluid simulant while outperforming a variety of commercially alternatives. The results demonstrate a versatile menstrual health product that provides a combination of dryness, discretion, washability, and safety.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Chlorfenapyr Crystal Polymorphism and Insecticidal Activity

Four crystalline polymorphs of the proinsecticide chlorfenapyr [4-bromo-2-(4-chlorophenyl)-1-ethoxymethyl-5-trifluoromethyl-1H-pyrrole-3-carbonitrile] have been identified and characterized by polarized light optical microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, Raman spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and electron diffraction. Three of the four structures were considered polytypic. Chlorfenapyr polymorphs show similar lethality against fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster) and mosquitoes (Anopheles quadrimaculatus) with the least stable polymorph showing slightly higher lethality. Similar activities may be expected to be consistent with structural similarities. Knockdown kinetics, however, depend on an internal metabolic activating step, which further complicates polymorph-dependent bioavailability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗